The Seven Deadly(ish) Sins of Marketing
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The Seven Deadly(ish) Sins of Marketing Brian Voth | P. Ag, B.Sc. Agribusiness VP Operations AGRI-TREND Senior Market-Coach® Twitter: @Brian_Voth
Transcript of The Seven Deadly(ish) Sins of Marketing
The Seven Deadly(ish) Sins of Marketing
Brian Voth | P. Ag, B.Sc. Agribusiness
VP Operations
AGRI-TREND Senior Market-Coach®
Twitter: @Brian_Voth
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Lust
Lust
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Gluttony
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Greed
2012
30 bu/ac canola
$15/bu
$450/ac gross
~$50/ac net profit
12.5% ROI
2013
50 bu/ac canola
$11/bu
$550/ac gross
~$100/ac net profit
22% ROI
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Sloth
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Wrath
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Envy
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Pride
Why?
What Can You Do?
- Deferred Contracts
- Basis Contracts
- Futures
- Options
- Futures First Contracts
2014: Please Fasten Your Seatbelt,
Continued Turbulence Expected
“Don’t worry about the future; or worry, but know that worrying is as effective as trying to solve an algebra equation by
chewing bubble gum.”
“Be careful whose advice you buy, but, be patient with those who supply it.”
– Mary Schmich
Canola
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Stats Can, Dec ‘13
Mercantile, Feb. ‘12
Thoughts on canola:
• Currently $431/mt on March futures
• Support at ~ $420/mt
• Resistance at ~ $450/mt
• Final Canadian production
• Brutal 2012, bountiful 2013
• Big crop, big demand
• 2013-14 carryout
• Logistics, logistics, logistics
• 2014
• Potential record acres (~22 mil)
• Big global demand but need to get to export
Twitter: @Brian_Voth
Wheat
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WASDE, Jan. ’14
Weekly Export Sales Jan 16th Weekly export sales are a direct correlation for the estimated yearly
export targets as reflected on an S&D
Helping farmers turn crops into profit.
Hightower Report, Mar. 8 ‘12
32 WASDE, Jan. ‘14
Stats Can, Dec ‘13
Thoughts on wheat:
• Currently $6.18/bu on March futures (Mpls)
• Support at ~ $6/bu
• Resistance at ~ $7/bu
• Exports out of Canada up 1.2 mmt from last year
• CWB
• Protein spreads
• Winter wheat/spring wheat spreads
• Quality wheat moving into feed markets
• Logistics, logistics, logistics
Twitter: @Brian_Voth
Profitability
Profit = Revenue – Expenses
= (Yield x Price) – Expenses
= (Yield x Price) – Operating Costs – Fixed Costs
Profitability
Brian Voth
AGRI-TREND Senior Market-Coach®
VP Operations
Cell 204-324-3669
Email [email protected]
Twitter: @Brian_Voth
