the review - Steer Davies Gleavena.steerdaviesgleave.com/sites/default/files/NA09.pdf · its...

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Innovative transportation demand management solutions to support major infrastructure projects the review North American edition Alternative funding to meet US transit needs • Interview with Jeff Busby of TransLink Managed lanes gaining popularity • New rail service for Florida ‘All Aboard Florida’ Issue 09 - October 2012

Transcript of the review - Steer Davies Gleavena.steerdaviesgleave.com/sites/default/files/NA09.pdf · its...

Innovative transportation demand management solutions to support major infrastructure projects

the reviewNorth American edition

Alternative funding to meet US transit needs • Interview with Jeff Busby of TransLink

Managed lanes gaining popularity • New rail service for Florida ‘All Aboard Florida’

Issue 09 - October 2012

welcome october 2012

CEO’s comment

Dennis Fletcherassociate

Dennis joins the Toronto office from GENIVAR, where he was Director of Transit

Solutions. He brings a broad range of transit planning experience, including route planning, service standards, transit operations and public consultation. Dennis has been responsible for a wide range of projects, including implementation planning for Brampton Transit Züm BRT and planning support for the Region of Waterloo LRT. Dennis is a member of the Board of Directors of the Canadian Urban Transit Association (CUTA), and teaches CUTA’s North American training offerings in transit planning and scheduling and runcutting.

Varun Pattabhiramansenior consultant

Varun joins our Boston office as a Senior Consultant. He recently

graduated from Massachusetts Institute of Technology with a Master’s degree in Transportation and is skilled in the area of econometric modeling and data collection.

Steer Davies Gleave has been a very busy place over the last six months, and we love it this way! It’s hard to believe that the London 2012 Olympics and Paralympics are over. We are extremely proud to have supported the Games right from the start – from being part of the team that developed the Transportation Plan for the original London bid, to working extremely closely with the Games’ organizers to see this plan right through to final delivery. Particular highlights include the transportation demand management (TDM) program which was a huge success, the spectator demand model which provided a vital tool for monitoring traffic in the main control center and the venue transportation plans. Steer Davies Gleave is about taking projects through the planning process to delivery. London 2012 is just one example of where we’ve helped a vision turn into reality. This review provides a rich insight on the range of projects we’re currently involved in across North America. We hope that you’ll pick up that many of these projects involve teams that share local knowledge with best practice internationally. We believe this mix provides not only additional value to our clients, but that vital component to ensure projects happen and succeed. Our business in North America continues to grow and we welcome staff who recently joined the team. We will continue to look for opportunities to grow and invest in North America.

Steve Hewittjoint ceo

Events New faces

Harvey Scorcia Tenjosenior consultant

Harvey joins the Bogotà office as a Senior Consultant bringing experience in urban planning

and urban transport. He graduated from Massachusetts Institute of Technology with dual Master’s degrees in Transportation and City Planning. Prior to joining Steer Davies Gleave he worked for two years at the World Bank in Washington D.C. where he participated in the preparation, supervision and evaluation of urban transportation projects in Latin America.

Héber Delgado-Medranosenior consultant

Héber joins our Mexico City office. He has extensive experience in developing econometric models

and impact evaluation strategies for projects in various sectors, including methodologies for evaluating the socioeconomic impacts of mass transit systems and analyzing their distribution. Héber has carried out economic studies for multilateral organizations, NGOs, mass transit authorities and academic institutions in the United States, the Dominican Republic, Colombia, Mexico and Yemen.

Launch of our TDM reportSteer Davies Gleave’s Vancouver office recently held an event to launch our new Transportation Demand Management Global Insights report, a 30 page study of best practice and innovation.

Our launch event coincided with VeloCity Global – the world’s largest cycling conference – which took place in the city. Over 100 guests attended the reception where they were able to network, enjoy a tour of the Matisse exhibition and even win a one-off piece of art created on the evening by artists painting throughout the event.

Each guest received a copy of the report, which summarizes developments in transportation demand management across the globe and highlights European lessons that could be applied in North America.

new consultants & assistant consultants

Nithya Vijayakumar joins SDG’s Toronto team from our London office. She brings UK experience on transportation demand management programs, specifically, Personalized Travel Planning, and will be supporting the development of SDG’s TDM offer in North America.

Agata Pieniek joins SDG’s Toronto team from the French consulting firm Item Etudes et Conseil. She brings international experience in transportation planning and will be working on a variety of projects across North America.

order a copyTo request copies of our TDM Report for you and your colleagues, send an email stating your name, title, company name and mailing address to [email protected]

looking to move?If you are considering your future and are looking for somewhere to make a real difference, Steer Davies Gleave has much to offer. The firm continues to grow in North America, Latin America and Europe. To find out about the opportunities we have to suit you contact [email protected] or visit our website.

our head of canada, ian druce, and the artist presenting winner, kevin mcnaney (assistant director of planning, city of vancouver) with his artwork

rail~volution 2012 in la 14-17 October

Once again, Steer Davies Gleave is proud to be involved with the Rail~Volution conference, helping to shape the organization’s current conference program and provide input into its future.

Our participation in Rail~Volution, led by our representative on the National Steering Committee, Tim Baldwin, fits well with SDG’s goals of working with local communities worldwide to help develop integrated transportation solutions that make our cities and urban areas better places to live, work and play.

This year’s speakers from SDG include:

t Tim Baldwin, moderating the discussion entitled ‘Station Area Planning: A New Perspective for Uncertain Times’

t Jonny Rotheram, taking a fresh look at bicycle audits, strategies, consultation and research

t Christopher Proud, moderating the discussion ‘Getting the Most From Your Existing Transit System’

t Alan Jones, a panelist at the discussion ‘Implementing Complete Streets: New Tools and Design Guides’

t Ian Druce, moderating the discussion ‘Bringing it Home: Infill Opportunities in Station Planning and Design’

Rail~Volution plays an important role in shaping policies and procedures related to linking land use and transportation.

To find out more about our speakers and the

Rail~volution program visit: http://www.oig.dot.gov/library-item/5760

canadian urban transit association (cuta) fall conference, quebec

10-14 November

Steer Davies Gleave Associate, Ashley Curtis will be attending the conference and discussing Integrated Transportation and Land Use Planning: A closer look at the Region of Peel and the Region of Halton. As part of the conference’s overall theme, Transit Vision 2040, he will demonstrate how to position transit at the centre of communities. act canada sustainable mobility summit, hamilton

4-7 November

The conference will focus on how to achieve the balance in sustainable mobility, concentrating on topics including TDM strategies, sustainable development and modal integration. A number of our team including Associates, Jon Foley and Steven Bishop, Principal Consultant, Geoff England and Assistant Consultant, Nithya Vijayakumar will be running workshops during the conference.

apta light rail conference, salt lake city 11-13 November

The American Public Transportation Association (APTA) and Transportation Research Board (TRB) are hosting the 12th Annual Light Rail Conference which will focus on Sustaining the Metropolis: LRT and Streetcars for Super Cities. Steer Davies Gleave Director Alan Jones will present a paper on Applying a European ‘Urban Style LRT’ design approach in North America: recent experience and lessons learnt in Canada setting out European best practice based on our work in Dublin, and covering our experiences in Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary, Hamilton and Mississauga/Brampton.

For more information please visit: www.apta.com

To find out more please visit: www.cutaactu.ca

To find out more please visit:www.actcanada.com

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accepted that investment is required.” Public transit decisions in Chicago are often made by a few key politicians with a focus on financing. There’s a greater emphasis on stakeholder and public involvement in Vancouver. Jeff notes that his challenge is not a technical exercise to justify funding; rather he is tasked with illustrating trade offs in technology and alignment choices to a sophisticated public.

As with all major investments, the ultimate decision then has to be agreed on by multiple government agencies, elected officials and stakeholders, creating an interesting issue with accountability. Jeff’s experience in Chicago was that the public naturally turned to the Mayor with their concerns and issues. In Vancouver, however, the desire for regional consensus creates a murky area for planners who can’t respond to issues directly. They first need the agreement of several parties – this inability to make a clear link to who is answerable can be a source of frustration to the public.

Another challenge facing planners is ensuring that local projects support regional goals. SDG has worked with TransLink and its partners on the UBC Line Rapid Transit Study, which aims to address increased transit demand along Vancouver’s Broadway corridor. It’s under increasing pressure from local population growth, rising employment

and growing student numbers. The current system is on the brink of being unable to meet demand. It’s often easy to illustrate the local benefits of a project of this kind. However, in Canada it’s just as important, if not vital to securing finance, to show that implementation will serve to meet regional transportation targets on sustainable mode shares and greenhouse gas reductions. The multiple account evaluation of options for the corridor will help to illustrate these impacts at multiple scales.

The UBC Line Study is now at the stage where decisions must be made on what to build and how to pay for it in a region with many competing needs. One certainty Jeff has learned from his experience so far in Vancouver is that all big projects must achieve a balance between regional objectives and local aspirations. At a time when you’re building consensus around a project, it’s vital that these objectives be understood and communicated. TransLink is committed to providing high quality, technically sound information on its projects and making it widely accessible.

For more information about SDG’s involvement with the UBC Line Rapid Transit Study please contact Ian Drucee [email protected]

Innovative TDM solutions for infrastructureLarge transportation infrastructure projects continue to be developed across the US and Canada despite recent economic hardship and increasing costs.

Steer Davies Gleave has realized the value in pairing innovative transportation demand management (TDM) strategies with infrastructure projects to capitalize on investment.

By Lisa Buchanan

Our resident TDM expert, Lisa Buchanan, outlines two ongoing projects that demonstrate how by using innovative TDM strategies we can capitalize on investment by mitigating against construction-phase travel impacts and promoting long-term behavior change towards more sustainable travel.

ottawa, ontarioThe City of Ottawa wants to minimize travel disruption caused by the construction of the city’s new light rail transit line. To achieve this, the city has developed a Travel Choices Strategy incorporating both a TDM Plan and a Communications and Outreach Plan. This strategy has been developed to be truly integrated and to be delivered with existing TDM programs, providing a legacy to future initiatives once the transit line is operational.

Steer Davies Gleave developed the strategy based on a comprehensive research and analysis program that included analysis of

travel preferences to inform geographically-targeted initiatives, and a cost-effectiveness analysis of TDM measures. This research informed the development of a strategy that includes a variety of TDM measures proven to be cost-effective ways to promote sustainable modes of transportation. It also included a detailed communications plan that presents messaging, outreach tools, tactics and media management. Among the measures proposed were improved transit information, an online journey planner, workplace and campus engagement programs, and personalized travel planning for households in selected neighborhoods.

Construction is due to begin in 2013 and early delivery of specific TDM measures has already been initiated by the City, based on Steer Davies Gleave’s final Travel Choices Strategy.

san diego, californiaIn a different corner of North America, the San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) included in its 2050 Regional Transportation Plan the development of corridor-specific TDM plans and TDM plans for construction mitigation. Steer Davies Gleave has been appointed to develop the TDM Plan for the North Coast Corridor (NCC).

The California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) and SANDAG are working to improve mobility, reduce travel times, and relieve congestion along the 27-mile NCC. The corridor is important for commuter, commercial, and recreational travel. Average weekday traffic flows

on Interstate 5 are in excess of 200,000 vehicles and this is projected to increase to more than 300,000 vehicles by 2030. The transportation element of the TDM Plan is comprised of three primary focus areas:

t the Interstate 5 Express Lanes project

t coastal rail and transit enhancements

t pedestrian and bicycle access improvements.

The TDM Plan will provide solutions that help manage congestion during construction and act as a foundation for continued travel behavior change once construction is complete. Steer Davies Gleave will shortly commence Phase 1 which comprises extensive market research with employers, schools, commuters, special uses, and other agencies along the corridor. The research will determine motivators to change travel behavior and will assess the existing TDM programs, services, and supportive facilities in the corridor. By fall 2013 we expect to have completed the final NCC TDM Plan.

These initiatives in Ottawa and San Diego have shown that cities and regions are thinking about alternative ways to mitigate against construction impacts and, at the same time, support and promote sustainable modes of travel.

To find out more contact Lisa Buchanan e [email protected]

interview jeff busby

Interview: Jeff Busby from TransLinkJeff Busby, Senior Manager for Infrastructure Planning at TransLink, Vancouver, moved to the city in November 2009. Six weeks of torrential rain marked his arrival - fortunately, it wasn’t a sign of things to come and Vancouver’s public transit offering is better off for his presence.

By Ian Druce

Despite earlier career aspirations to work in structural or traffic engineering it was his passion for “building really great cities” that led Jeff to public transit work. Over the past three years he has overseen public transit projects in Vancouver, adapting to a system that differs in many ways from his previous working environment at the Chicago Transportation Authority.

Jeff viewed the move to TransLink as an attractive opportunity for many reasons. In particular, he was impressed with the high level of consensus in Greater Vancouver about the importance of the role of transit and the need to invest in it. He explains, “In Chicago we spent a lot of time having to justify investment in transit and there was a fair amount of jurisdictional squabbling. Greater Vancouver is really refreshing because the mind set here is more progressive and it’s readily

Downtown Vancouver skyline, British Columbia

San Diego LRT

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But now a second wave of managed lanes projects are coming through. Soon, managed lanes projects in Virginia, Texas and Puerto Rico will be delivered through P3, and many more are being considered. The objectives of P3 managed lane projects need to be carefully established. Since the toll revenue alone is typically insufficient to finance the full managed lanes project, the public sector will be required to contribute funding in addition to the private sector financing.

This can lead to the conflicting objectives of:

t Setting toll rates higher to maximize revenue and lower the public sector contribution.

t Setting toll rates lower to attract more trips to the managed lanes.

These are some of the issues that Steer Davies Gleave has been addressing through our involvement working for both the public and private sector on a number of the managed lanes projects, including ones in California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Texas and Virginia.

To find out more contact: David Cuneo e [email protected]

Managed Lanes are gaining popularity in the US, with a second wave of projects soon to be delivered and many more being considered.

While strictly speaking High Occupancy Vehicle lanes are a form of managed lanes, here we focus on fee-based managed lanes, such as High Occupancy/Toll lanes or Express Lanes.

By David Cuneo

The motivation for building more managed lanes is compelling. Urban areas across the United States are experiencing highway congestion and need new capacity. Toll revenue from managed lanes can in fact help pay for a portion of the costs to build and operate this new capacity. All users of the facility experience improved travel times, including those travelers who remain in the ‘general purpose’ lanes, since the shifting of some traffic to the managed lanes reduces congestion in the general purpose lanes. Further, managed lane projects can be integrated with bus rapid transit to provide a cost-effective provision of a high quality transit service.

The first wave of managed lane projects were primarily conversions of HOV (High Occupancy Vehicle) lanes to HOT (High Occupancy/Toll) lanes. This type of project was originally implemented to better utilize underused highway capacity. Toll rates for these projects are typically set to control the traffic levels in the managed lanes and any revenue in excess of operating costs is seen as a bonus.

Managed lanes on the up

The demand for public transit services in the US and North America is at its highest level in decades. Under this increased pressure, what measures are

transit agencies taking to ensure they meet this growing demand?

By Tim Baldwin

The combination of high gasoline prices, persistent high unemployment and an anemic economic recovery, and the increasing urbanization of our society (led by the millenials) are helping fuel the transit ridership increase. At the same time, transit agencies are struggling with providing more services and capacity to meet this demand while facing budgetary shortfalls because of lower sales tax revenues and higher construction and operating costs. How are we going to bridge that gap?

US transit funding: Getting from Point A....to Point $

Some transit agencies are increasingly turning to alternative funding and financing mechanisms to help meet current needs and to continue to plan for future growth and expansion. Transportation for America, a non-profit organization dedicated to helping governments at all levels plan and implement future transit programs, recently provided a guide to help decision-makers understand the options available to help fund transit investments. Bonding is a traditional approach to financing, but other financing programs include tax increment bonds (paid back from increased property tax revenues related to new development around transit), grant anticipation notes (where local governments borrow against future federal formula grants), and public-private partnerships (or P3s, where private sector project partners provide up-front equity for construction and operations in return for long-term payback from sales tax and fare revenues). Denver’s Regional Transportation District is using P3 to help construct its new rail line to Denver International Airport.

A relatively new form of financing comes from federal government loans introduced by the Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act (TIFIA). These low-interest, long-term loans allow implementing agencies to finance major transit investments at low interest rates and long-term payback. The new federal surface transportation reauthorization bill (MAP-21) includes provisions making it easier for transit agencies to receive TIFIA

financing. A governmental coalition in the Denver area is using TIFIA financing to help pay for new Bus Rapid Transit lanes along a highway stretching from Denver to Boulder.

One US transit agency is using every means at its disposal to speed up its transit construction program. The Los Angeles Metro system (one of this year’s Rail~Volution co-hosts) has initiated what it calls the ‘30/10 Initiative’ which aims to accelerate the construction of 12 key Metro expansion projects originally slated to take 30 years to build – and instead complete them in ten. This will provide faster benefits to the region while taking advantage of today’s lower construction costs.

In 2008, the Los Angeles area approved Measure R, a local sales tax initiative that would generate $40 billion to pay for congestion relief and transit projects throughout LA County. The ‘30/10 Initiative’ is using those anticipated sales tax revenues from Measure R as collateral for long-term bonds and federal loans to help complete those projects by 2019.

LA Metro is examining several financing mechanisms, including:

t Transit improvement bonds (TIBs), a new category of bonds being explored that would potentially use federal subsidies or tax credits in lieu of interest payments, with principal being repaid by Measure R sales tax revenues. This type of funding was not included in the

latest federal surface transportation reauthorization bill, but local decision-makers may continue to press for its inclusion in future legislation.

t TIFIA loans from the federal government (as detailed above) are considered the largest potential sources of up-front funding for the program. The program will need to be modified to allow larger loan amounts, but that option is expected to be approved as MAP-21 provisions are implemented.

LA Metro is continuing to refine its initiative and is examining additional mechanisms to keep its projects moving forward at a quicker pace than originally planned. It is considering more use of P3s to help accelerate construction and is also examining the possibility of securing low-interest loans – perhaps even from non-US sources – as part of its overall effort. Like other agencies, Metro is continuing to re-examine its options as economic, political, and fiscal conditions change, but the agency is determined to meet its accelerated implementation goals. Other metro areas around the country are watching the LA experiment with high hopes, as this innovative program could be a model that other areas could emulate.

To find out more contact Tim Baldwin e [email protected]

los angeles metro

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All Aboard Florida (AAF) is a proposed 230-mile premium-quality passenger rail service between South and Central Florida. The project is being developed

and operated by a private sector entity, Florida East Coast Industries (FECI), a portfolio company of private equity funds managed by Fortress Investment Group. By Lucile Kellis

Along the Florida east coast, the service will run on 200 miles of right-of-way (ROW) that Florida East Coast Industries already owns; the remaining east-west section to connect into Orlando will require new ROW. Train speeds will vary from 79mph to 125mph, and the trip between Miami and Orlando will take around three hours. The service plan provides for 12 to 14 trains per day at approximately one-hour headways. Passengers will ride in custom-designed rolling stock with first and coach class trains, quality meal service, Wi-Fi, and ample luggage storage space.

Rail service along Florida’s east coast was developed in the last quarter of the 19th century through the efforts of Henry Flagler, a co-founder (with John D. Rockefeller) of

All Aboard Florida!Steer Davies Gleave was retained by FECI to serve as a ridership and revenue advisor for its AAF project. We carried out an ongoing peer review of the ridership and revenue forecasting methods and results prepared for the AAF project by another consultant, and so were closely involved in developing the demand analyses and forecasts. We also conducted an analysis of the impact of AAF on revenues generated by a state toll road, showing that – between revenues lost from auto diversions to AAF and new revenue generated by auto access to AAF stations – these impacts are negligible. Development of the AAF project continues to advance and construction may begin as soon as 2013.

To find out more contact Lucile Kellis e [email protected]

Standard Oil. Flagler first went to Florida so his sickly wife could spend winters there. He recognized the need for efficient transportation along the state’s east coast and over time, through acquisitions, upgrades and new construction, developed freight and passenger rail operations in the present ROW.

The rail service was a powerful impetus to socio economic development in the corridor. It is not an exaggeration to say that the railroad, with accompanying improvements that Flagler made, was responsible for the development of the Florida east coast: Miami was a tiny fishing village when the service first opened in 1896!

Although passenger operations stopped in the mid-1960s, freight rail service has continued and the corridor has grown to become a major Florida freight artery. It also remains an excellent prospect for passenger service: Miami and Orlando are major population, economic and tourism centers; the available ROW is flat and straight; and, because of the development induced by the earlier rail operation, the ROW traverses the downtowns of major population centers such as West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale and Miami. FECI still owns the centrally-located property that was the site of the Miami passenger station when passenger service existed earlier this century.

As more federal funding opens up to High-Speed and Intercity Passenger Rail (HSIPR) in the US, there is a strong need to put best practices

in place to objectively evaluate and prioritize projects.

By Masroor Hasan

Given the relatively undeveloped state of intercity passenger rail planning methodology, it is possible that proponents of different projects may prepare their predictions of ridership, revenue, benefits and costs using different and perhaps incompatible approaches, making it difficult to evaluate, compare and prioritize the various projects on a consistent basis. To address this situation, the US Department of Transportation’s Office of Inspector General (OIG) retained Steer Davies Gleave to research and document best practices in three main areas of HSIPR project development – ridership and revenue forecasting, operations and maintenance costs and public benefits.

Drawing on our reports, the OIG earlier this year prepared and issued its own audit report (http://www.oig.dot.gov/library-item/5760) on guidance on high-speed rail viability assessments. The objectives of the audit were to:

t “identify key focus areas for analyses of HSIPR project economic viability”

t “assess the FRA’s requirements and guidance for HSIPR grant applicants on the information they must provide to FRA on project viability”

Our reports present and discuss current international best practice methods in the three specific areas mentioned above. These guidance reports are based on our experience working on projects in the US, Europe and across the rest of the world. We have supplemented our own experience through reviews of publicly available documentation from HSIPR studies, and by drawing on previous studies that have attempted to contrast forecasting methodologies and experience in different countries.

Although the reports do not explicitly refer to the evolving FRA guidance on HSIPR planning, they are intended to be useful contributions to the USDOT’s and FRA’s ongoing development of appropriate planning methods.

To find out more contact Masroor Hasan e [email protected]

Best practices in passenger rail project development

Steer Davies Gleave prepared a series of reports describing best practice methods for forecasting ridership and revenue, operating costs and public benefits for HSIPR projects. These reports are now publicly available through the OIG’s reading room website at: http://www.oig.dot.gov/foia-electronic-reading-room

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News in Briefnew bridge for st lawrence river, montreal canada Steer Davies Gleave has been appointed to provide technical expertise in the development of the business case for the replacement of the Champlain Bridge, which spans the St. Lawrence river in Montreal. The new bridge will connect the Island of Montreal to the South Shore. The current Champlain Bridge is the busiest vehicle crossing in Canada with over 60 million vehicles a year. It is also vital to the regional and national economies with an estimated $20 billion in international trade crossing it annually. Led by Steer Davies Gleave Associates Dan Gomez-Duran and Pierre Vilain, the team will be working as part of a wider team led by PricewaterhouseCoopers and providing traffic and revenue advice and support.

zip rail, Minnesota usaSteer Davies Gleave is part of a team that was recently selected by the Olmsted County Regional Railroad Authority and the Minnesota Department of Transportation to complete a Service Development Plan (SDP) and Tier 1 Environmental Impact Assessment (EIS) for the Rochester-Twin Cities high-speed passenger rail (Zip Rail) corridor. The project is planned as an initial segment with the eventual goal of connecting the Twin Cities with Chicago by high-speed rail service. We will work on the service planning, the preliminary alternatives development and the preparation of the corridor service development plan.

US high speed and intercity passenger rail

Steer Davies Gleave is at the forefront of high-speed and intercity passenger rail (HSIPR) planning activities in the US. We are involved

in most of the ongoing and recent HSIPR studies around the country, working with federal and state governments as well as with private sector passenger rail developers. Here we demonstrate the role we are playing on these projects.

By Jon Bottom

HSIPR has been gaining focus in recent years in the US, and Steer Davies Gleave has been involved in many of the HSIPR planning studies. These studies have included work at the federal level, for the public sector on specific project corridors, and for private sector initiatives. Steer Davies Gleave is currently working for the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), to develop a national sketch planning ridership and revenue forecasting tool as part of a National Rail Planning Study. We have also recently prepared reports for the Office of the Inspector General, United States Department of Transportation, focusing on best practices in the areas of HSIPR ridership and revenue forecasting, operating cost calculation and public benefits estimation.*

Elsewhere, we are supporting various state Departments of Transportation, through our involvement with ridership and revenue forecasting on a number of FRA-funded HSIPR corridor studies. These include:

t the Colorado Interconnectivity Study (the I-70 and I-25 corridors)

t the Atlanta-Charlotte corridor

t the Chicago-St. Louis corridor

t the Oklahoma City-South Texas corridor

t the Twin Cities-Rochester Corridor

Steer Davies Gleave was also responsible for the business strategy, operations planning and demand forecasting to support Amtrak’s Financial and Business Plan for the Northeast Corridor Integrated Investment Program.

Moreover, we are involved in both the ongoing private sector initiatives to develop HSIPR service in the US – the XpressWest project and the All Aboard Florida project – as the lead demand forecaster for the former and as a demand forecasting peer reviewer for the latter.

To find out more contact Jon Bottom e [email protected]

*These are available in their entirety at http://www.oig.dot.gov/library-item/5760

The mass adoption of cell phones in the past decade has generated a set of data outlining people’s movements of unprecedented size

and geographic scope. But what can, or will, it be used for?

By Toshi Shepard-Ohta

In recent years national cell phone service providers have partnered with AirSage to process cell phone signals into location, movement and traffic data. This data is then used for transportation planning purposes, while fully addressing users’ privacy concerns and maintaining their anonymity. Steer Davies Gleave has been collaborating with AirSage for several years using the data from these national service providers. Using our expertise in transportation planning and understanding of passenger travel within a given corridor, we’ve collaborated with AirSage to create and refine methodologies for developing useful data applications for travel demand forecasting.

There are many potential advantages to this new source of data including its size of more than 100 million users in the US, geographic coverage of the entire country, and the lack of need for users to opt in or for intervention by the network operations staff. The continuous collection and storage of location data has allowed us to address data seasonality concerns on projects with compressed schedules and to potentially analyze changes in trip patterns over time. It is also cost efficient compared to traditional data collection techniques, as the raw data is archived and readily available for analysis. However, data mining for extensive study areas or new applications can be time consuming.

SDG has now used this cell phone based data for several demand forecasting studies of urban and inter-urban toll roads and high speed rail corridors. What has the data been used for?

t Travel time and delay profiles

t Auto and air origin-destination trip tables

t Stay length duration of long distance travelers

t Travelers’ trip frequency within a corridor

Each study has its own unique geographic and analytical concerns and we have therefore tailored the specification and methodology to each individual project. With each subsequent study we have become more familiar and comfortable with the prospects and limitations of this data.

After working on several studies we are now more able to anticipate the likely challenges, identify additional potential insights, and most importantly to structure the analysis so that it can be validated against other existing data sources.

To find out more contact Toshi Shepard-Ohta e [email protected]

Travel demand forecasting using cell phone data

Champlain Bridge, Montreal

Cell phone signal

Mode of transport

Auto trips

Air trips

Cell phone signal

Mode of transport

processing cell phone data into auto and air trips

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by Brazil’s status as host nation for the 2014 World Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro. These can be expected to create additional peak-time pressure on facilities and introduce a wide range of logistical challenges. With the world watching Brazil to see if it can successfully deliver these events, they also introduce a hard time constraint into resolving the problems of airport capacity.

The Brazilian government has been facing up to this challenge by leading a program of full or part privatization of a number of leading airports historically operated by Infraero. This is aimed at upgrading airport capacity to meet the burgeoning demand levels, and to introduce world class operating expertise to deliver improved service standards to passengers and airlines.

To find out more contact Paul Cresswell e [email protected]

With a population of almost 600 million, a rising urban middle class that is likely to wish to fly more, and economic growth set to average

about 4% per year, Latin America can expect to see substantial growth in air passenger traffic over the coming years.

By Paul Cresswell

Growth in air traffic is not a new phenomenon for Latin America. Data from Boeing (which along with competitor Airbus, provides forecasts of global and regional demand covering the next 20 years) shows that Latin American traffic has more than tripled since the mid-1980s, growing at an annual average rate of over 5%. This has been faster than the annual rate of global growth (4.6%) and has resulted in the region taking a 10% share of the world’s airline traffic (expressed in terms of revenue passenger kms, RPKs).

The leading aircraft manufacturer’s forecasts suggest that Latin America is, if anything, likely to see even faster traffic increases in the future. Boeing’s 2011 ‘Current Market Outlook’ predicts that growth will average close to 6% per year to 2030 with a further tripling in traffic volumes in the region. A similar picture is presented by Airbus in its ‘Global Market Forecast’, although its view of how the demand will be distributed (Airbus believes the world will see a concentration of traffic on ‘aviation megacities’ including São Paulo based on use of its A380 aircraft) differs somewhat from that of Boeing (who unsurprisingly take the view that its own B787 aircraft, which is particularly suitable for direct point-to-point routings, represents the more likely future).

Whichever view you support, the message is clear – there is huge potential for further air traffic development in Latin America.

Although some region to region flows may grow particularly strongly (Boeing believes that the opportunities for intra Latin American travel are especially bright) the general picture is projected to be one of a robust increase in connectivity to all parts of the globe, as shown in Figure 1. Growth of this magnitude will drive Latin America’s traffic to 1.5 billion RPKs by 2030, a figure broadly equivalent to the global total in the mid-1980s.

This growth represents a great opportunity for the region’s aviation sector with airports, airlines, aircraft manufacturers (Embraer is the third largest in the world and headquartered in Brazil) and an array of other supporting organizations all hoping to benefit.

However, realizing the full potential of this growth will be dependent, at least in part, on developing the region’s airports to accommodate the extra traffic. This could be a huge challenge given a legacy of a lack of capital investment, with a number of major airports struggling to cope with strong growth in recent years.

Brazil – the ‘next big thing’?Brazil provides a striking example of both the opportunities and challenges present in the Latin American market. Brazil’s airports already serve a large air travel market, but as with other leading developing nations, such as Russia, India and China, can expect huge growth in demand over the coming years.

Statistics from Infraero, the Brazilian government corporation historically responsible for running the nation’s airports (a position that is changing, as we discuss below), show that Brazil’s airports served almost 180 million passengers in 2011. This makes the market by far the largest in Latin America. However, despite its size, comparison of Brazil’s market volume to that in the United Kingdom, where a population of 63 million (a third of that of Brazil) supported an air travel market of 223 million annual passengers in 2011, provides some insight into the growth opportunities that still await.

Brazil’s airport traffic has boomed in recent years. Volumes are now over 2.5 times greater than they were in 2003, with passenger volumes growing at a cumulative average growth rate of 12.3%, spurred on by a combination of economic growth and lower air fares (supported by a thriving domestic low-cost carrier market).

With Brazilian GDP growth averaging a robust 4.2% per year in this period, this means that air traffic has increased at almost triple the rate of economic growth. The rate of traffic growth was even higher in 2011, when Brazil’s airport passenger volumes increased by 15.8%.

Given that recent IMF forecasts for Brazilian GDP growth average 3.9% per year to 2017, it is reasonable to assume that the country is likely to continue to see heavy growth in air travel demand in the medium term. This will increase the existing pressure on airport facilities which, in several cases, already face significant capacity constraints. Guarulhos, for example, has limited spare runway slots at times that are commercially attractive to airlines and has developed a reputation for aircraft delays.

The challenge to ensure airport capacity is developed to meet rising levels of demand and deliver international class service quality, is further complicated

fig.1 growth in passenger ms

Latin America to/from2010

(RPMs in millions)2030

(RPMs in millions)20 year CAGR

Asia Pacific 2 5.5 5.6%

North America 107 305 5.4%

Europe 97 248 4.8%

Intra Latin America 102 373 6.7%

Africa 2 6 6.0%

Total 310 937 5.7%

Source: Boeing

61 71 83 90 98 100 115

139 162

10 11

13 12 13 13

13

16

18

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Ann

ual P

asse

nger

s (m

)

Calendar Year

Domestic International

fig.2 brazilian airports traffic growth 2003 - 2011

Source: Infraero

Latin America’s airports - flying high!

Staff Profile:Pierre Vilain

Pierre, an Associate based in New York, has been an economist for over 22 years. He is a noted expert in the application of econometric techniques for

transportation modeling. Projects he has worked on include investment grade model development for Vancouver’s TransLink and the Chicago Skyway. We asked Pierre some questions about himself and his interest in transportation...

what made you decide to work in transportation consultancy? I’m an urban economist, and transportation issues are pretty central to the field. I’d been doing cost-benefit analysis of major transportation investments for the European Investment Bank, and worked on demand modeling using statistical tools from economics. I always heard great things about SDG so... here I am!

which city do you admire most for its transportation and why? I love New York City’s initiatives developing pedestrian spaces and bicycle lanes. However, I’m particularly impressed with Vancouver’s balance of frequent, reliable and attractive transit service.

what is the most bizarre/exciting mode of transportation you have been on? This summer I rode a camel with my children in Morocco. Fuel efficient, but disappointing on in-vehicle travel time!

what project are you most proud to have worked on and why? I recently worked on a strategic plan for a passenger ferry service in New York. It involved some rigorous and extensive demand modeling, analysis of ferry technology and policy advice. It’s a good example of what consultancies such as SDG can bring to urban transportation.

what would you be doing if you didn’t work in transportation consultancy? Easy – playing the drums with Living Colour!

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At the core of much of Steer Davies Gleave’s services to our clients lies the need to forecast how demand will change over time. Be it for rail passengers in the UK, managed lanes in Texas or road freight on toll roads in Brazil, often the exam question is: how much traffic (and revenue) will there be next year?

Pierre Vilain – who joined our Boston office at the beginning of the year – has extensive experience in building and applying models based in econometric techniques. He is keen to build on this to ensure Steer Davies Gleave keeps at the technical forefront of this very important area.

In his research, Pierre has focused on two key areas: firstly, the ongoing problem of the lack of historical data; secondly, the incorporation of the knowledge gained from the more powerful panel econometric analysis within the more traditional four-stage network modeling approach. Pierre has prepared interesting papers on each of these issues.

Pierre authored an informative and detailed paper with fellow colleagues, Muhammad, Li, and Hallissey, for the Journal of Transportation Research (Edition No. 2187). The principal focus of the paper is a description of how network and econometric models can be combined into a single model, with an assessment of how this combination results in improved forecasting tools.

News in Brief

managed lanes, dallas Steer Davies Gleave served as the Traffic and Technical Advisor to the Dutch pension fund manager APG as it recently made an equity investment in the North Tarrant Express and LBJ Managed Lane projects. Both projects are currently under construction and will add tolled managed lanes to highways in the Dallas–Fort Worth area.

port lands, torontoThe Toronto Port Lands is an extensive, yet underutilized area within a 30 minute walk from the downtown. The 1,000 acre site presents an unprecedented opportunity for sustainable, urban, waterfront revitalization. SDG formed part of a team of consultants that developed a direction for the revitalization of the Toronto Port Lands. It featured a transit and transportation strategy that would support urban development over a 20 year planning horizon.

george massey tunnel, vancouverThe Corporation of Delta in Metro Vancouver has appointed Steer Davies Gleave to review and evaluate the ability of the George Massey Tunnel to handle current and potential future traffic demand and to estimate the economic cost caused by congestion. The tunnel is situated on Highway 99 and plays an integral part in the local, regional and provincial road network as it crosses the Fraser River and links to the US border.

congratulations!We are pleased to share the good news that Ian Druce, head of our Canadian region, has been promoted to Director and Jon Bottom, head of our US region, has been promoted to Associate Director. Congratulations to them both.

At the forefront of improving forecasting techniques

Such models are widely applied in academia and have been used in a variety of ways. The regional productivity differentials used in Wider Economic Benefits assessments are often based on panel models and they are also widely applied in policy evaluation studies. Advanced panel techniques such as Stochastic Frontier Analysis can be used to examine cost efficiencies in regulated industries.

We are increasingly using panel models to improve the reliability of our analysis and forecasts, both out of necessity where time series data is limited and for the greater analytical insight such models can provide. In a recent project for the Civil Aviation Authority in the UK, we used panel econometric analysis to estimate the average relationship between passenger numbers and operating costs at UK airports as part of an airport price review. We developed a panel model across several UK airports based on financial accounts going back to 2000 to estimate an overall passenger-operating cost elasticity of 0.28.

Using a panel model increased the available data for the model by a factor of 10, significantly improving its reliability, and enabled us to make detailed benchmark comparisons of the relationship between passengers and opex across different airport types and time periods.

To find out more contact Duncan Kernohan e [email protected]

Econometric models are widely used in transportation economics to analyze and forecast relationships

between variables like traffic, revenue, operating cost, price and GDP. Such models are usually based on a time series for a single ‘location’ such as a road, airport or business and generally suffer from a critical problem – a lack of historical data. Traffic counts, for example, are often only available for a few years, and estimating a relationship with such a small sample can be problematic for obvious reasons.

By Duncan Kernohan

To deal with this, we are increasingly combining time series and cross-sectional data into what is known as a ‘panel’ dataset. As well as increasing the quantity of available data and improving model reliability, this method provides several advantages by enabling new techniques that can be used to examine causation and the interaction of variables over time in different ‘locations’ taking account of factors such as scale, region or nationality for example.

Using panel models in transportation economics

A copy of the full paper can be found at this web address: http://trb.metapress.com/content/k078522771pt/?p=c9c3a27f0d28499e8c02c308330ffb96&pi=15

pierre writes...

Over the last fifteen years, the field of econometrics has seen the development of techniques directly relevant to transportation

modeling. These techniques address a common, significant problem in the econometric modeling of transportation – the lack of sufficient historical data. With a technique known as panel modeling, this problem can be mitigated.

With panel modeling, we focus not on a toll road as a whole, but rather on several interchanges or count stations. Merging the data into what is known as a longitudinal panel means that we multiply the available data by the number of sub-units considered. This has proven extremely valuable in improving the fit and reliability of econometric models in a range of applications.

However, while such models represent a significant improvement on standard techniques and are particularly well-suited to incorporating the effect of economic cycles and prices on demand, they do not

address the difficulty of incorporating network effects in an econometric modeling context. This has led to attempts to combine the econometric modeling approach with network modeling.

The four-stage network model is better suited to assessing the impacts of significant network or congestion changes, making it an essential planning tool for regional transportation agencies. Network models represent the ‘supply side’ explicitly, such as available road capacity in a network, and provide a way to estimate how all trips will be made on that network.

To combine the two approaches – and derive forecasts which incorporate both the demand and supply side factors – we have worked to develop hybrid econometric-network models.

The hybrid approach provides an interim modeling solution which sits between the econometric approach and more costly full four stage model development, while significantly improving the accuracy of model forecasts.

Port Lands, Toronto

To find out more contact Pierre Vilain e [email protected]

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London 2012 was successful for many reasons. The smooth-running transportation, the friendly ‘Games Maker’ volunteers, the

exciting opening ceremonies and the slick stadia all came together to create a great sporting event.

By Jon Foley

In the aftermath of one of the greatest shows on earth, talk has already turned to the next host nation, Brazil. With Rio in the process of investing $14bn public funds in preparation for the World Cup and an additional $11.5bn on the 2016 Olympics, what can they take from the UK’s experience of hosting such an enormous event? Also, what can events such as the Pan-American Games 2015 in Toronto learn?

Transportation should be varied, ample and on timeThe London 2012 Games were billed as the first ever ‘public transport’ summer Games, with no public parking available at any of the venues. The challenge of moving nine million spectators for the Olympic Games and two million spectators for the Paralympic Games in addition to the 300,000 or so athletes, officials, media and workforce – collectively known as the Games Family – was huge.

London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games

In preparation for the Games the UK Government, the Olympic Delivery Authority, the Olympic and Paralympic Organizing Committees, Transport for London and other agencies worked together to ensure the transportation network was fit for purpose. Transport for London (TfL) carried out numerous improvements to the train network, including: the expansion of the London Overground East London Line, upgrades to the Docklands Light Railway and the North London Line, and the introduction of a new Javelin high-speed rail service. Plus, an additional 4,000 train services operated during the Games to cope with the influx of visitors.

TfL also built a $40 million cable car across the River Thames to link Olympic venues. The Emirates Air Line carried up to 2,500 passengers an hour, crossing every 30 seconds.

The public should receive information and advice to plan ahead A key component of the bid to host the 2012 Games in London was an acceptance that even with significant improvements to the transportation network, complementary measures to change Londoner’s travel behavior were also required to ensure the success of the Games. The delivery partners therefore embarked on the development and delivery of the largest events-focused transportation demand management (TDM) campaign ever seen.

The program included provision of advice, information and supporting tools to influence the travel behavior of those living, working and playing in London and adjacent to non-London venues. The objective being to change the way in which they traveled by reducing their travel or changing their route, mode or time of travel so as to avoid hotspots. This was to free-up capacity on the network for those going to events. In addition to engaging with the business community in the most affected areas (through workshops, one-to-one meetings and other forms of communication) to encourage them to introduce changes to their operations (for example, flexible working hours, working from home, out of hours deliveries) there was a wide ranging public awareness campaign that used traditional and emerging marketing interventions such as social media to persuade people to travel at less busy times, on less busy routes and using less busy

modes (particularly walking and cycling). The program was supported by web-tools for businesses and individuals alike intended to make the experience as easy as possible.

To support this activity spectators were also subject to a travel advice and information campaign. This included the development of a tailored spectator journey planning tool and other more traditional resources such as mapping and travel advice for getting to/from venues. All travel advice provided encouraged spectators to travel by routes that avoided the worst of the anticipated congestion. In addition, and to make all journeys easier, an eye-catching wayfinding system blanketed the city. Stations, venues and commuter hubs were populated with bright pink signage which made journeys on foot and bike particularly easy.

Create venues with future purposeThe 560-acre Olympic site sits on former underutilized land in East London, an area desperate for regeneration. There were concerns that post-Olympics the venues could become desolate and devoid of purpose. However, it was an integral part of London’s successful bid to host the games that the Olympics legacy transformed the East London from being one of the poorest parts of the country to one that shared fully in the capital’s growth and prosperity. The focus now is on ensuring the site serves as a working reminder of what was achieved during the Olympics. Plans are thus in

place to help the Olympic Park flourish, providing the community with green space and leisure facilities. Over $900 million has been budgeted to make the park habitable by April 2015. Up to 11,000 homes will be created, some converted from the housing that the athletes stayed in and as the area develops, around 4,000 jobs will be created.

The Aquatics Centre and handball venue the Copper Box have been acquired for municipal and professional use, and the Velodrome and BMX track will become part of a leisure area called the London VeloPark. Several temporary structures, including the basketball arena, have the potential to be reused elsewhere. The cavernous media center, which was home to both press and broadcast teams, will be transformed into a technology hub including a data center

emirates air line, london olympic stadium, london

and London’s largest TV studio. During the development over 6,000 jobs will be created directly on site and in the local area.

While the Olympic Stadium currently has no operator or tenant, several tenancy bids will be considered over the coming months, with local soccer club West Ham the favorite to become tenants. It is testimony to a combination of improved transportation infrastructure and services, the comprehensive TDM program, and high quality accessible venues that transportation at the London 2012 Games did not become the thing that dominated the headlines as many thought it might.

To find out more contact Jon Foley e [email protected]

Olympic Stadium, London

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Seniors also expressed a desire to learn how to use transit safely right down to knowing where the safest places to sit were, or where the easiest stops to embark and disembark were. Some felt they could benefit from being taught how to remember stops and stations – particularly those who were not fluent in English. TransLink, which provides Vancouver’s transit service, meets with a Users’ Advisory Committee, but does not meet directly with seniors. TransLink has recently initiated a new program, TravelSmart for Seniors, that aims to connect with seniors and help provide information, education and confidence-building for using transit and hopefully this program can respond to issues such as de-mystifying transit, communicating in multiple languages, and reaching larger numbers of seniors.

A seniors-friendly public transit system may ease the decision to becoming a retired driver. By understanding the challenges and opportunities seniors face in giving up driving, agencies such as TransLink can ensure that older adult drivers can successfully transition to becoming transit users on a safe and reliable system that meets their ongoing mobility needs.

To find out more contact Maria Curro e [email protected]

ticket or planned which bus or train route to take. Technological advances may have have passed them by as well so things like real-time travel information which are by nature helpful, can actually confuse somebody who hasn’t become naturally accustomed to them. Seemingly simple things can seem daunting to the uninitiated.

Seniors whose primary language is not English were apprehensive about getting lost on the network because station names, transit stops and audio announcements are only offered in English. And they were equally concerned that once lost, staff would be unable to understand them and help them find their way.

Many seniors were put off by the belief that the routes are inadequate and don’t cater to their needs. They thought buses only ran a frequent service during peak rush hours and that during the rest of the day wait times were long.

Some flatly refuse to use the system because they don’t want to contend with groups of youths who could become threatening or risk being jostled about on busy services or in busy stations which could result in injury.

Many seniors feel they lack information about transit and point out that on-board information and the internet are not tools they are familiar with, rather they would hope to find information in community centers or churches where they spend time.

How do you convince 78,000 people to change the habit of a lifetime? The majority of Vancouver’s over 65s are car drivers

through and through. There’s an efficient, safe, reliable transit system at their disposal and yet the majority would still prefer to navigate the busy road network.

By Maria Curro

Vancouver’s public transit system exists to serve everyone, and is key to reducing congestion in the city. So what can be done to persuade our senior contingent that it’s a viable alternative to their automobile?

Recent research into the opinions of Vancouver’s over 65 seniors population on transit in their city has revealed that both practical and emotional barriers prevent them from giving up their cars to use transit. Whilst this study was conducted in Vancouver, it is not a problem that is isolated to this city. As the demographic of many cities in North America shift towards having a larger elderly population, the issues that were raised are ones that transportation planners across North America will likely have to deal with in the future.

One barrier is that they simply don’t know how to use public transit. In many cases, it’s been a long time since they last bought a

to five lanes of speeding vehicles, holding a position in the ‘fast’ lane, then turning. Having attempted this I am all too aware that not only is it a dangerous move to attempt but it is also very likely to annoy drivers. Instead, I’ve learned it’s safer to arrive at the intersection on the right, disembark onto the sidewalk (an illegal maneuver), cross once the lights turn red and then start cycling again. Essentially, something that should be simple − isn’t. (see Fig.1)

Cycling – the future for Denver? Compared to UK and European cities, Denver has the luxury of ample road and land space. As a transportation planner in the UK, my biggest challenge was trying to fit bike lanes on roads as narrow as 20 feet wide (two lanes) that were already used by buses, cabs, cars and pedestrians.

In downtown Denver, where many of the streets are considerably wider there’s many opportunities to include safe, dedicated facilities for cyclists, which is encouraging.

The US as a whole requires strong political will and vision to see how cities could be designed for cyclists and pedestrians, and the benefits need to be better imparted to the public. The challenge now for the City of Denver is to capitalize on an ingrained and growing cyclist population and design a system that all cyclists can use safely throughout the city.

To find out more contact Jonny Rotheram e [email protected]

As a European cycling enthusiast moving to Denver I recognized immediately that transportation planning and policy are different here.

By Jonny Rotheram

I’d argue that driving is essentially the easiest mode of transportation to get around cities in the US. Gas is cheap, there’s often little congestion and parking can be found easily. Streets in Denver are wide, straight and long and one-way grid systems dominate. Cars can travel at high speeds to cross the city, creating a high-octane environment which, in my opinion, significantly impacts the safe and efficient use of other modes of transportation. Tellingly, I’ve come across very few user-activated pedestrian crossing facilities in Denver and I’ve noticed that the city center lacks pedestrians.

One of the most difficult things for a city to achieve is the development of a cycling culture and surprisingly, Denver has one of the strongest in the US. The City of Denver recognizes that cycling is a sustainable, economic, point-to-point mode of transportation. Indeed, Denver is one of the few cities in the US leading the way in terms of cycling programs and infrastructure and in the past few years, it has implemented a citywide bike sharing program, and adopted a long term vision for cycling in the city.

And yet, as an experienced cyclist confident in tackling busy streets, I must admit it sometimes feels unsafe on the Denver road network. The auto-oriented street design here means I contend with much higher volumes and speeds of vehicles than I’m used to which can be difficult.

I’ve also found the multi-lane one-way system quite hazardous. It makes turning left difficult as it involves crossing in front of up

An Englishman in Denver

Making transit attractive to seniorsfig. 1 turning left in denver

viewpoint jonny rotheram

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