The Regional Development Choices Project€¦ · Next Two Months Parcel-level place type and...
17
Research Triangle Region February 7, 2020 CommunityViz for the 2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan
Transcript of The Regional Development Choices Project€¦ · Next Two Months Parcel-level place type and...
Research Triangle Region
February 7, 2020
CommunityVizfor the
2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan
Research Triangle Region
Agenda
Part 1: Understanding CommunityViz (John Hodges-Copple)
Beginning With the End in Mind
Finding Your Happy Place in Scenario World
Things We May Do Behind the Curtain
Your CommunityViz Guide and Look-Up Tables
Additional Resources From Triangle J COG
Part 2: Working With CommunityViz (Ben Bearden)
Research Triangle Region
Where We Plan Together
Triangle Area RPO
Kerr-Tar RPO
Upper Coastal Plain RPO
Mid-Carolina RPO
Research Triangle Region
2050 Metropolitan Transportation Plan
TRM V.6 Study Area 3,500 square miles 700,000 parcels 104,370 grid cells
3 MPOs
4 RPOs
16 Model Sub-Regions
Local Governments Involved: - 10 counties - 40+ cities & towns
Understanding CommunityViz
Research Triangle Region
CommunityViz Grid
Raleigh Durham
CommunityViz –1/8 mile
1 square mile
Research Triangle Region
Beginning With The End In Mind Next Two Months Parcel-level place type and development
status designations that update the 2045 MTP adopted scenario for the 2050 MTP “default” scenario, including reviewing your community’s look-up table values
Review and revise applicable constraint layers in your community
Start committed development spreadsheet for projects that exceed thresholds
Next Winter
Modify the “default” scenario to create additional scenarios for analysis
Jobs2013
Jobs2045
Population2013
Population2045
2045 MTP results: each dot is 50 jobs or people
Research Triangle Region
Finding Your Happy Place: Living in Scenario World
“Are these the shadows of the things that Will be, or are they shadows of things that May be, only?”
Research Triangle Region
The Patron Saint of Forecasts“What gets us into trouble isn’t what we don’t know;
it’s what we know for sure that just ain’t so”
“Prediction is difficult, especially about the future”
Research Triangle Region
Warning! Warning! Warning!
• Technical analysis is only part of what goes into making informed investment decisions view analysis through the lens of clearly-defined values and guiding principles draw on the expertise and experience that people bring to the table
• In comparing technical information, recognize significant differences, not minor ones
• Find your technical happy place to avoid common traps: Reading too much into the analysis Ignoring the analysis because it is not without fault or blemish
Research Triangle Region
Scenario WorldThe future is uncertain, so technical analysis uses models and assumptions which represent a simplified world so we can understand relationships and inform decisions … … not the real world.
We want to be accurate, but our main goal with CommunityViz is to be reasonable, transparent, documented and adaptable …
… to be “just the right amount of wrong”
Research Triangle Region
How Things Work in Scenario World
Land Use …influences
Travel …
Mobility Investments
which is served by
A robust analysis looks at each of these elements: land use, travel markets, and investments
Research Triangle Region
Things We May Do Behind the Curtain The 2 previous versions of CommunityViz were
“forward looking only;” they did not create parcel or grid cell level base maps – base year data was only available for TAZs
“Thinking backwards” to the TRM “calibration year” (2016) is hard
The 2050 MTP will have a 2020 base year.
We would like to use local parcel-based data, LEHD/LODES and InfoUSA data to try and create 2016 Calibration Year and 2020 Plan Base Year data at a grid cell level. No promises.
Research Triangle Region
The CommunityViz Guide Books and Look-Up Tableswww.tjcog.org → programs → transportation planning →
metropolitan planning organization support [scroll down to CommunityViz]
Research Triangle Region
Look-Up Tables
(decided locally; apply in individual jurisdictions)
Research Triangle Region
Suitability Factors
(decided regionally; apply everywhere)
Research Triangle Region
Key Take-Aways!
• First, determine the place-types Place Type are “future looking;” they are for what a parcel is expected to
become, not necessarily what it is today If you have a current, accurate comprehensive plan, that is the most likely
source for a parcel’s place type. But you can use zoning, or information from underway planning efforts, or
informed judgement, or …
• Once the place types are set, then indicated development status The development status is what the parcel is today, relative to what it will
become (as indicated by the place type you selected in the first step).
Research Triangle Region
Questions & Discussion
John [email protected]
919-558-9320
https://www.tjcog.org/programs-land-use-transportation-transportation-planning/metropolitan-planning-organization-support
