ADEME'S OPINIONS

April 2016 – The potential of electric vehicles 1

The potential of electric vehicles

April 2016

Summary

Electric vehicles can help reduce the dependence of road transport on imported oil, cut the country's energy bill, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, improve air quality in cities through zero exhaust emissions and reduce noise pollution.

The economic costs and environmental impacts of electric vehicles are mostly concentrated at the manufacturing stage, whereas the costs and impacts of internal combustion vehicles are predominantly felt during usage. So we cannot simply compare vehicles as objects, we must see how they are used, which means taking a fresh look at the full potential of electric vehicles which must be used intensely to be economically and environmentally viable.

The main advantage of internal combustion vehicles is their ability to carry a very large amount of energy giving them a very large range and significant versatility. However, the consequences of the use of fossil fuels on the climate and the environment today require us to look for other solutions for vehicles and mobility systems. Electric vehicles are among these: its lack of versatility, due to its still limited range, is offset by being more adaptable and optimised for the usage sought.

Electric vehicles are particularly suitable for new mobility services offerings and allow the transition to new ways of travelling to be speeded up optimising the use of the vehicle and no longer requiring ownership of it. The use of digital, facilitated by the electrical engine, opens up numerous opportunities for innovations and new services (such as the autonomous vehicle for example).

In addition, electric vehicles can do more than just transport. Their batteries provide useful energy storage capabilities that can help regulate the power grid and the development of renewable energy. The marketing of electric vehicles may be accompanied by energy services that can be economically viable and used to structure the electromobility offer in return. To minimise the impact on the electrical grid, it is essential to implement smart charging management systems taking account at once of EV usage constraints but also those of the grid.

Electromobility is conceived as an integral ecosystem, which associates car manufacturers, charging operators, service providers, users... It is a genuine industry whose economic relevance and environmental sustainability must go hand in hand with a systemic approach.

April 2016 – The potential of electric vehicles 2

ADEME'S OPINIONS

STAKES ...................................................................... 2

MARKET .................................................................... 2

SOLUTIONS PROVIDED BY ELECTRIC VEHICLES .................................................................. 3

With respect to energy ...................................................... 3

With respect to the environment....................................... 3

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES ....... 4

An electric vehicle should be used intensively ................... 4

Adapting vehicles to travel needs ...................................... 5

Develop a services offer ..................................................... 6

Use the electric vehicle as a link in a smarter energy management chain ............................................................ 6

PERSPECTIVES ........................................................ 8

Development of new business models ............................... 8

Establishing virtuous circles ............................................... 8

ADEME'S ACTIONS ................................................. 9

ADEME OPINION................................................... 10

ADEME OPINION................................................... 10

APPENDIX: ........ ERREUR ! SIGNET NON DEFINI.

1 The Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development and Energy – Monitoring and statistics department, Key figures for the climate – France and the world, Edition 2016.

2 France's energy bill stood at €66 billion in 2013, of which 52 billion was for oil

Stakes

The transport sector is both a huge consumer of energy and a greenhouse gas generator. It accounts for 35% of CO2 emissions and 32% of final energy consumption in France1. Private cars account for two-thirds of energy consumption in the sector.

Road transport is also responsible for a significant share of air pollutant emissions (54% of nitrogen oxide emissions, 14% of PM10 particulate matter emissions and 17% of PM2.5 emissions) the reduction of which is a major public health challenge. This sector also has strong economic impacts, accounting for a significant portion of the French energy bill, i.e. over 90% of the fuels made from petroleum2.

Addressing the challenges of the energy transition in the transport sector requires developing different complementary actions that involve both an improvement in the energy efficiency of the various modes of transport and a change in behaviour. Electric vehicles are part of the solutions to be developed.

This opinion discusses the latest developments concerning the potential of electric vehicles (EV) for the energy transition in transport.

Market

While EVs are still in the minority on roads with 17,268 registrations in 2015 (almost 1% of new vehicle sales), the market has been growing in recent years, particularly due to the effect of financial incentives put in place under the Energy Transition Act for Green Growth. Thus, in 2015, sales were up 65% over the previous year3. For the first time, private individuals represent the majority (about 60%) of buyers of electric vehicles4.

3 ADEME data 4 This document concerns private vehicles (motor vehicle, built and designed for the transport of persons, with at least 4 wheels and, in addition to the driver's seat, a maximum of 8 seats the total laden weight of which is less than 3.5 tonnes).

April 2016 – The potential of electric vehicles 3

ADEME'S OPINIONS

Solutions provided by electric vehicles

To assess the environmental gains generated by electric vehicles (EV), in 2013 ADEME carried out a life cycle analysis in order to draw up a comprehensive environmental assessment over the entire life cycle of the vehicle5. With respect to energy

Electric vehicles consume less energy than an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle in operation because its powertrain has excellent energy efficiency. Despite this, throughout its life cycle, the energy consumption of an EV is broadly similar to that of a diesel vehicle.

Figure 1: Total primary energy consumption of internal combustion vehicles and electric vehicles6

Indeed, to measure the total energy consumption of an electric vehicle, the production of the electricity needed to charge the batteries must be taken into account. The efficiency of electricity production with the mix and current technologies is low. Hence a 'well to wheel' energy consumption7 that remains significant. Furthermore, while the energy consumption does not seem very sensitive to variations in vehicle speed, it can increase if the driver uses the air conditioning or heating8. Given this variabilities, it is difficult to conclude that the electric vehicle provides a real solution to the challenges of energy efficiency.

5 Development in line with life cycle analysis principles of energy assessments, greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts induced by all electric and internal combustion vehicles, 2013 (see references in "publications").

6 The results are obtained assuming a battery life time of 150,000 km over 10 years

However, the development of electric vehicles can reduce dependence on imported oil, especially with the perspective of an electric mix incorporating an increasingly large share of renewable energies (wind, solar...). The benefits are both economic (drop in the national energy bill) and environmental (less depletion of fossil resources).

Figure 2: Potential for depletion of fossil resources for internal combustion vehicles and electric vehicles

With respect to the environment

Beyond the issue of energy efficiency, EVs provide an interesting solution to address the challenges of the energy transition for the automotive industry:

Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions: Throughout their life cycle, electric vehicles emit, when the electricity used to charge the batteries is low-carbon as is the case in France, less greenhouse gas than an internal combustion vehicle (respectively about 9t CO2eq compared to 22t CO2eq under the same conditions)9. Electric vehicles can reduce the contribution of the automotive industry to global warming.

Reduction of pollutants responsible for deteriorating the quality of the air: EVs do not emit NOx and VOC from tailpipes, which are also ozone precursors10. They thus

7 'Well to wheel' energy consumption refers to consumption of energy from the production of electricity up to the propulsion of the vehicle.

8 IFPen with the support of ADEME, "Evaluation of EVs energy consumption influencing factors," EVS27, 2013. 9 The results presented are obtained assuming a battery life time of 150,000 km over 10 years 10 See also: http://buldair.org/category/arborescence-du-site/pollution-de-l-air/polluants/polluants-de-l-air-exterieur.

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April 2016 – The potential of electric vehicles 4

ADEME'S OPINIONS

help improve the quality of the air in cities by reducing concentrations of particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide where they are used when they replace internal combustion vehicles.

Figure 3: Photochemical ozone creation potential for internal combustion vehicles and electric vehicles

However, the EV has negative impacts on the environment, mainly during the manufacturing phase, in particular as a result of the acidification potential and the aquatic eutrophication potential. However, over the lifecycle of the vehicle, these impacts are of the same order of magnitude for an EV as for an internal combustion vehicle (for the acidification potential, the impact of the EV is 25% higher than that of a diesel vehicle; as for the eutrophication potential, the impact of the EV is 45% lower than that of a diesel vehicle)

Second life use and recycling of batteries help reduce these environmental impacts.

11 Project supported by ADEME as part of the "Future vehicle" project in the investments for the future programme

Recommendations for the development of electric vehicles

An electric vehicle should be used intensively

In contrast to internal combustion vehicles, most environmental impacts of an EV occur during the manufacturing phase. The environmental gains of an electric vehicle come therefore with usage.

In economic terms, while electric vehicles at the time of purchase are generally more expensive than an internal combustion vehicle (mainly due to the cost of the battery), significant savings can be made during usage because the cost of electricity, maintenance and usually insurance are lower.

Figure 4: Breakdown of the costs for internal combustion and electric vehicles in a company fleet (InfiniDrive project11)

Electric vehicles become economically viable above a certain daily mileage level and usage frequency that enables the initial investment to be written off. This is what is shown in the feedback from the InfiniDrive project, which highlighted an appropriate area of use for electric vehicles in a company fleet.

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April 2016 – The potential of electric vehicles 5

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Figure 5: Economic relevance of electric vehicles based on its use (daily/annual) observed in the framework of the InfiniDrive project11

Thus, the EV will be all the more interesting in economic and environmental terms the more it is used intensively, for example:

for long daily commuting when private vehicles are required due to the absence of public transport;

in the context of shared company fleets of vehicles;

for deliveries of goods in cities;

for mobility services (car sharing for example).

Adapting vehicles to travel needs

We are accustomed to considering the automobile as a multi-purpose vehicle, suitable for all uses. However, to meet the challenges of the energy transition in the transport sector, it is not only necessary to increase the environmental performance of our vehicles but more broadly, we need to rethink the ways we use the automobile, in connection with travel needs.

Apart from internal combustion vehicles, the automotive industry encompasses a variety of technologies: electric vehicles, electric vehicles with range extender12, plug-in hybrid vehicles, full and mild hybrids. There are complementarities between these technologies so as to be able to use the corresponding vehicle in the manner best suited for the use in question.

The electric vehicle, due to the characteristics of its powertrain, can adapt to the specific characteristics of

12 An electric vehicle with a range extender incorporates a device to recharge the battery from another source of energy.

the proposed uses. For example, an electric vehicle used for known regular missions can have a smaller battery size, perfectly adapted to the need. The EV can thus benefit from a reduction in mass and cost at the expense of its range. Small commercial electric vehicles are now coming onto the market. They are go-anywhere vehicles suitable for the transport of goods in city environments.

Figure 6: Renault Twizy Cargo

This adaptability capacity that electric vehicles have enables the right balance to be struck between optimising the vehicle for specific uses and versatility.

Some models of luxury electric vehicles accessible only for a niche market have 600 kg of battery enabling a range of over 500 km and these testify to the appeal of the versatility of conventional vehicles despite the recent emergence of vehicles optimised for specific tasks.

Figure 7: Tesla Model S

April 2016 – The potential of electric vehicles 6

ADEME'S OPINIONS

Develop a services offer

The intensive use and the adaptation of electric vehicles to our needs can be facilitated through the emergence of mobility services. There is a convergence between the EV and mobility services. Firstly, EVs are particularly well suited to this type of offer and may even be a factor in accelerating adoption of mobility services (the urge to drive an electric vehicle may encourage a private individual to use a car sharing service for example). On the other hand, mobility services can be both a significant market for EVs (and ensure a high usage rate) but also increase the acceptability and appropriation of this new technology. Electric technology can thus speed up the transition to new ways of travelling that optimise the use of the vehicle and no longer require ownership of it. This may lead to vehicle usage references being overturned.

Figure 8: Experimenting the EZ10 EasyMile driverless electric shuttle in Sophia Antipolis, France

As part of our automotive culture of owing a multi-purpose vehicle, it is difficult today to consider simple transition modes based on our instant needs.

However, this perspective opens the way to multiple possibilities for innovation development in particular in the field of information exchange between the vehicle and the infrastructure or between the individual and his or her environment.

Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) enable these exchanges and are a facilitating factor for the adoption of electric vehicles. Indeed, they make possible the development of services enabling:

- intensive use of EVs (pooling of cars through car-sharing)

- them to be an alternative to internal combustion vehicles. For example, by providing reliable predictive data, information technologies (ICT) can inform the driver about the charge level of

13 Innovative car uses and new mobilities January 2016

the vehicle's battery and thus reassure him as to the remaining range.

New uses of the car are being developed (car sharing, carpooling...), based on usage rather than ownership of the vehicle. Driven by digital technologies, these new services are likely to deeply transform mobility practices, while modifying the relationship between players – both new and traditional – who contribute to implementing them.

A recent study, conducted by CGDD (General Commission for Sustainable Development), the DGE (Directorate General for Enterprise) and PIPAME (Interdepartmental Centre for economic change prospection and anticipation)13, explores the economic, social and environmental potential of these new uses of the car by seeing travel needs on a territory scale. Overall, the prospective analysis confirms the economic and environmental benefits of wide-scale car-sharing and car-pooling services.

Figure 9: Cité lib by Hamo, a multimodal car-sharing concept using ultra-compact electric vehicles connected to the public transport network

Use the electric vehicle as a link in a smarter energy management chain

EVs associated to ICTs may also participate in the improvement of energy efficiency at the national level by supporting coordinated charging systems with the capacities of the electricity grid. Thus, by imagining a facilitated data and information exchange, EVs can be seen not only as vectors of mobility but also as contributors to the implementation of smart electricity grids. To do this, it is particularly important to use intelligent management of EV charging as much as possible so as to limit their impact on the grid and the needs for new lines and transformer stations. In addition, it is essential to use so-called 'fast' charging only when justified for a particular usage and keep the so-called 'normal' charge for most uses wherever possible.

April 2016 – The potential of electric vehicles 7

ADEME'S OPINIONS

Figure 10: Development of tools for the optimal integration of electromobility in the electrical grid14

Indeed, electric vehicle batteries offer the possibility of regulating the electrical grid or smoothing out peak demand when used as energy storage15. This "service" rendered to the network could be given economic value. Electric vehicles are thus a source of flexibility in electricity demand.

Furthermore, at the end of the EV's life, the battery can also be re-used for energy storage. Research is being conducted to develop reusable batteries as stationary storage elements for electricity on the power grid with limited reconditioning costs. This research comes in addition to ongoing innovations to make the batteries more compatible with a cost-effective recycling process.

Figure 11: Study on recycling and a second life use of electric vehicle batteries16

There may also be convergence between the introduction of renewable energies and the provision of EVs as electricity storage elements on a smart grid. Renewable energies and electric vehicles benefit from technical synergies. Thus, ADEME's prospective study "A 100% renewable electric mix? Analyses and optimisations" shows that to achieve an electricity mix with a strong renewable penetration rate it is necessary to develop solutions that provide greater demand and storage flexibility17. The scenarios looking to 2050 envisage ambitious demand flexibility solutions such as

14 Experiment carried out in the framework of the ERANET+ Electromobility DAME project 15 P. CODANI, M. PETIT and Y. PEREZ, Participation of an electric vehicle fleet to primary frequency control in France, International Journal of Electric and hybrid Vehicles, 2015. 16 Experiment conducted under the ERANET+ Electromobility ABattReLife project supported by ADEME

17 100% renewable electricity mix? Analyses and optimisations, Oct 2015

the widespread development of smart meters and associated services to generate maximum flexibility for both load stimulation and load shedding by managing the various uses and among them electric vehicles. Furthermore, a car is idle 95% of its lifetime and the average use of an electric vehicle requires less than 80% of the battery capacity for daily commuting purposes18. Therefore, during periods when the vehicle is connected to the grid the stored electricity can be used by re-injecting it back into the grid. Using electric vehicle batteries as mobile storage capacity with controlled management of battery charging can be a factor facilitating the introduction of a higher share of

renewable energies into the grid19.

18 http://www.smartgrids-cre.fr/index.php?p=stockage-vehicule-electrique 19 K. KNEZOVIC, M. MARINELLI, P. CODANI and Y. PEREZ, Distribution grid services and flexibility provision by electric vehicles: A review of options, IEEE – Power Engineering Conference (UPEC), 2015.

April 2016 – The potential of electric vehicles 8

ADEME'S OPINIONS

Perspectives

Development of new business models

Coordination between EV and the grid must not only serve EV users but also improve the economic value for all stakeholders in the sector. The innovations that consist of using an electric vehicle to offer energy services can significantly improve the economic and environmental viability of EVs by recovering the costs and environmental impacts of the battery.

Establishing such an industry requires that the electromobility industry be considered as a whole20 i.e., think in terms of business models that go beyond just car sales. While further technical developments are still needed, the crux of the issue lies in establishing these new business models. To be effective, they must reward all players in the value chain down to the end user.

Currently, the electric vehicle is emerging from various niche markets and starting its transition to a mass market. This step is a critical phase in its deployment.

The electromobility sector is not therefore limited to the electric vehicle market. Its economic potential must be addressed as a whole. Electromobility can be seen as an ecosystem in its own right, associating car manufacturers, charging operators, service providers, electric systems, users... It is a genuine industry that must find its economic relevance while being environmentally viable.

Given this challenge and the associated potential, we are witnessing a repositioning of existing industry players and the emergence of newcomers who propose often innovative service offerings.

These players adopt different strategies. Existing players such as automobile manufacturers have a historical closeness to customers and can leverage their most important asset by favouring strategies based on their own understanding of customers, with the risk of remaining stuck in patterns close to their historical core business. To find viable business models, alliances with other players and even vertical integration can now be seen in the electromobility sector. This environment is

20 C. WEILLER and R. SIOSHANSIR, Revue d'économie industrielle 148 (4th quarter 2014) – Transition énergétique, industries et marchés – Y. PEREZ, C. STAROPOLI.

conducive to the emergence of innovative solutions as regards the building blocks of the ecosystem, such as connected charging stations with intelligent energy management.

Figure 12: TELEWATT charging solution for electric vehicles from the public lighting network

While robust knowledge of market expectations may lead to commercial success, the users of a disruptive product such as EVs cannot easily imagine and express the new services or uses this type of vehicle could offer. Thus, players such as TESLA or BOLLORE choose their orientations by understanding and anticipating the expressed and latent market needs, by turning the entire company towards an understanding of the market over the long-term21. Not being already established on the automotive market, it is easier for these manufacturers to get involved in every link in the value chain.

Establishing virtuous circles

Currently, each player is working to capture the maximum potential value created by the electric vehicle. Yet not all win-win situations have yet been explored.

Indeed, some analysts believe that the potential of electric vehicles is amplified within virtuous circles.

We can cite:

Making the vehicle lighter resulting in a reduction in energy consumption, hence a decreased need for on-board energy. The battery size can be reduced, making the vehicle both more affordable and even lighter still;

The virtuous cycle consisting of renewable energy, electric vehicles, smart grids and stationary electricity storage;

21 N. KROICHVILI, F. PICARD and K. CABARET, "ABattReLife Final Report on EV battery business models", project supported by ADEME, 2015.

April 2016 – The potential of electric vehicles 9

ADEME'S OPINIONS

Or that of a future mobility associating electric vehicles, mobility services and driverless vehicles. Indeed, systems to control electric powertrains can speed up the development of driverless vehicles.

Figure 13: Representation of one of the virtuous cycles for electric vehicles22

Some private stakeholders are speeding up the emergence of these cycles, not only by developing technical solutions, but also by freely sharing key data

over an exchange platform. They have understood that it is not a question of trying to sell products but of making the platform indispensable to an increasing number of people, cities, players23...

The risk of these platforms being monopolised by private companies were identified in the prospective report from the CGDD, DGE and PIPAL entitled "Innovative Uses of Mobility". The densest areas could be promoted, thus creating a divide between urban and rural areas.

ADEME is favourable to the development of a European public platform for information exchange enabling universal access to electromobility ecosystem data on all territories.

ADEME's actions

In its prospective exercises, ADEME develops visions of desirable developments from an energy, environmental and economic standpoint over the medium and long term. To help players work towards these visions, it acquires knowledge to inform technological choices depending on the observed and anticipated uses. The tools used include studies, technology assessments, experiments and the industrial projects it supports.

Electromobility is positioned at the edge of the following themes "Transport Technology", "Mobility", "Smart Grids" and "Production of Electricity from Renewable Sources". The deployment of charging infrastructures over the territories involves establishing links with regional patterns of mobility, urban organisation projects but also energy management on the grid. EVs and their charging stations may for example be a link in the introduction of renewable energy, stationary energy storage or permit experimentation with positive energy buildings or even on a neighbourhood scale.

ADEME's involvement over the entire national territory and the diversity of its thematic expertise, enable it to

22 Chunka Mu (Forbes)i, "The virtuous cycle between driverless cars, electric vehicles and car-sharing services".

perform cross-disciplinary work in the form of thematic studies or practical experiments carried out locally.

ADEME is also conducting background studies to identify incentive levers that include the end user and promote the emergence of business models based on all the players in the value chain being paid. Analyses are conducted on the acceptability of electric vehicle technology but also on the factors that most influence user behaviour. The goal is to encourage change and to foster specific optimised usage of vehicles.

As part of the Research Demonstrator Fund and the Investments for the Future programme, ADEME has been able to complement these studies by technological demonstrations, large-scale experiments (experiments on charging infrastructures), development of incentives for the sector (aid schemes for the deployment of charging infrastructures) and industrialization of the most advanced technologies (electric powertrain) right up to anticipating and adapting electrical distribution networks to the deployment of plug-in electric and hybrid vehicles (smart electric systems). Thus, the relationship between the different studies, the assessments of the most promising technologies and supporting them up to the marketing stage form levers for complementary actions

23 FV PECHMANN, Disruptive platform deployment engineering: The case of electric vehicles, 2014.

April 2016 – The potential of electric vehicles 10

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contributing to the establishment of the best EV deployment strategies.

TO FIND OUT MORE Publications

- Energy, Greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts balances for electric and ICE vehicle chains elaborated using LCA princples, Gingko21 and PE international for ADEME, 2013

Websites

- ADEME website: mobility and transport prospective vision

- Future Transport Blog

April 2016 – The potential of electric vehicles 11

ADEME'S OPINIONS

The advantages of the electric vehicle lies in its energy diversification capacity within the transport sector, its ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, to improve air quality in cities – through zero exhaust gas emissions – and reduce noise pollution.

Business models need to be found to achieve the desired developments, namely intensive usage and a significant rate of substitution of internal combustion vehicles. These models will emerge from systemic innovations that take account of all stakeholders in the sector.

The potential of the sector as a full ecosystem is considerable. However, the challenges are complex, particularly because they concern a variety of industries with different markets and regulatory environments.

Engaging electromobility requires the interoperability of EVs with local communication infrastructures and smart grids.

According to ADEME, government interventions to have the sector emerge and sustainably develop an engaging electromobility ecosystem must:

target the development of business models that promote synergies between mobility and electric system stakeholders;

facilitate data sharing to roll out mobility and smart charging services;

increase the organisational and strategic adaptability of companies in the current automotive industry;

coordinate public action in favour of electric vehicles and associated electric network services aimed at addressing market shortcomings;

establish incentive pricing policies, making room

for the concept of drawing power for charging while taking account of network constraints, and facilitate electricity market

mechanisms that enable EVs to be used to roll out new network services that would have economic value and reduce the total cost of EVs24.

In addition, a comprehensive charging management system based on information and communication technologies is necessary to provide energy optimisation services.

ADEME recommends the development of common information platforms providing universal access to the data in the electromobile ecosystem. They must allow interactions on market mechanisms, accelerating the development of innovative services, management of charging roaming25 while ensuring transparency of information on energy consumption, electricity supply and costs.

Finally, ADEME favours electricity supply roaming to enable EV drivers to simply choose an electricity supplier. This choice may enable consumers to opt for a 100% renewable electricity supply.

24 Y. PEREZ, M. PETIT and W. KEMPTON, Public Policy Strategies for Electric Vehicles and for Vehicle to Grid Power.

25 Roaming refers to the ability of a charging operator's

subscribers to use the services of other operators on their travels.

ADEME opinion