The Politik Press, Volume XII, Issue 10

NOVEMBER 19th, 2012Volume XII, Issue X the POLITIK PRESS


A publication of

JHU POLITIKjhupolitik.org

MANAGING EDITOR Alex Clearfield

ASSISTANT EDITORS Julia Allen, Colette Andrei, Ari Schaffer

EVENTS CHAIR/PUBLICITY Randy Bell

CREATIVE DIRECTOR Victoria Scordato

HEAD WRITER Rachel Cohen

STAFF WRITERS Megan Augustine, Akshai Bhatnagar, Michael Bodner, Henry Chen, Virgil Doyle, Chris Dunnett, Cary Glynn, Peter Lee, Daniel Roettger, Chris Winer

FACULTY ADVISOR Steven R. David

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF Jeremy Orloff, Matt Varvaro

VOLUME XII, ISSUE XNOVEMBER 19th, 2012

The views expressed within this publication reflect the personal opinions of each article’s author and are not necessarily endorsed by JHU Politik or the Johns Hopkins University.

the

POLITIK PRESS


WEEK IN REVIEW

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by Chris Winer ‘14, Staff Writer

United States: King of Oil by 2020 In eight years, U.S. oil output should surpass Saudi Arabia’s. America will become nearly energy self-reliant and on track to become a net exporter, according to a report by the In-ternational Energy Agency. New technologies such as the hydraulic fracturing of shale have boosted crude oil supplies and will transform the U.S. into the largest producer for about five years starting in about 2020. For the first six months of this year, the nation met 83 percent of its energy needs, according to the Department of Energy. Crude imports have fallen 11 percent this year and America should produce its most oil since 1991. In a year when Iran has threatened to halt oil shipments, the growing output, plus a natural gas boom, may help cushion the nation from supply disruptions. Next Terrorist Attack Could Come For Electric Grid Terrorist attacks on the power grid could cause massive blackouts throughout the United States for weeks or months, according to a Wednesday report by the National Academy of Sciences. Destroying substations or transmission lines with explosives or by launching pro-jectiles could cause widespread energy failures, the report said, deaths from the cold or heat, and hundreds of billions of dollars in economic damage. The study, the most authoritative yet on the subject, repeats the chorus from independent engineers and the electric industry itself regarding the grid’s vulnerability. The Department of Homeland Security has attempted to collaborate with companies to rehearse responses. Meanwhile, the September 11 attacks and extreme weather like Hurricane Sandy have emphasized the need for more vigorous moni-toring and technological improvements. Fiscal Cliff Could Increase College Costs The $1.2 trillion in automatic spending cuts that may kick in at year-end as part of the so-called fiscal cliff could result in an 8% cut in federal aid on top of recent reductions. Federal grants dropped 5%, after adjusting for inflation, totaling $49 billion during the last academic year. This marked the first drop after rising for five consecutive years. According to a report released last month by the College Board, federal work-study payments fell 4% to $972 mil-lion, after adjusting for inflation, dropping below the $1 billion mark for the first time in at least a decade. To prepare for these potential financial aid cuts, students should contact their colleges’ financial aid offices for school grants and search for scholarships in their commu-nity and on sites like Fastweb.com and CollegeBoard.org . PP


Let us be clear: it is never a “convenient” time to work on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. We live in a tumultuous world, with many serious foreign policy problems happening all at once.

And, unfortunately, due to the nature of our political system, an American president has only so much politi-cal capital, time, and space to act on a number of issues before the next election cycle approaches.

In his second term, President Obama will need to deal with the rising possibility of a nuclear-armed Iran, plan for the safe withdrawal of American troops from Af-ghanistan, decide how to proceed with his controver-sial drone-strike policies, secure strong economic and military interests in Asia, and address problems that have yet to materialize. However, the time to use vigor-ous U.S. diplomatic leadership to negotiate a two-state solution is now; it will not be any easier four years down the line. Many experts agree that the window to achieve such a peace deal, --a deal supported in principle by Is-raeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, and every U.S. Administration since George H.W. Bush--is diminish-ing. Both sides know what the agreement would look like: what we now need is the political will to achieve it.

The relationship between Netanyahu and Obama is strained, yet it is imperative that the two leaders get past their political differences and work together for two states. The two-state solution is simply the only way for Israel to remain both a Jewish and democratic state, and for Palestinians to be freed from a 45-year military occupation and obtain the full political rights they deserve.

Negotiating peace is also a national security interest for the United States. We spend billions of dollars an-nually on Israeli security, but countries with clearly defined borders are more secure and better able to de-fend themselves against threats.

In 2009, Obama visited the Middle East, and Israelis understandably felt snubbed that he failed to stop to meet with leaders in Israel. But despite the lack of presidential speeches in Israel, actions speak louder than words. Under Obama’s leadership, Israeli De-

OBAMA MUST WORK TOWARDS TWO STATES

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fense Minister Ehud Barak, Israeli President Shimon Peres and Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon, have all publicly stated that the security relationship between Israel and the United States has never been stronger. The amount of financial and military sup-port the Obama Administration has given to Israel is unprecedented.

Netanyahu received a lot of justly-deserved flack from Israelis and the international community during the U.S presidential election for intervening on behalf of Governor Mitt Romney. As Israeli Opposition Leader Shaul Mofaz, asked of Netanyahu in the Knesset, “Who are you trying to replace? The Administration in Wash-ington or that in Tehran?” Netanyahu was open about his distrust of Obama’s strength, determination and ca-pabilities, despite the praise that Obama had received from Israel’s intelligence and defense community.

On the Palestinian side, there is a partner for peace. Recently in an interview with Israel’s Channel 2, Ab-bas declared: “Palestine for me is the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as the capital... The West Bank and Gaza is Palestine. Everything else is Israel.” Hold no illusions: if the Palestinian Authority collapses (as Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman pledged to ensure if the Palestinians seek upgraded non-mem-ber status at the U.N.), the next Palestinian leader will not be so moderate, or so inclined to work towards a two-state solution. An inability to reach an agreement with Abbas and the PLO will only strengthen the hand of Hamas, making it more difficult to deal with the sit-uation in Gaza. Rocket fire from Gaza is not an exam-ple of why peace is impossible, but how the absence of negotiations and agreements perpetuates an endless cycle of violence that leads nowhere.

Obama must use some newly acquired political capital to revitalize the peace process. Netanyahu, Abbas, and Obama must move past rhetorical games and work to-gether for a long-term secure and just future. Early in 2013, I would hope that Obama travels to Israel and Palestine, making clear to both sides that the peace process will be a priority. The United States wants and needs their President to act forcefully and urgently, before it is too late. PP

by Rachel Cohen ‘14, Head Writer


Like a game of musical chairs, the men and women of the 112th Congress are shuffling to find their bearing before inevitably returning to their seats on Capitol Hill. When the music

stops on January 3rd, however, scores of men and women will find their seat taken and will be forced to leave the game. In the House, 17 Democratic and 20 Republican in-cumbents lost their reelection bids, while 23 Democrats and 19 Republicans decided to call it quits. In the Senate, 2 Republican candidates lost their reelection bid while 5 Democrats, 4 Republicans, and one Joe Lieberman decid-ed to step down on their own. With 91 congressional rep-resentatives leaving, the American public is left to won-der whether the legislative branch can depart from their usual modus operandi and actually enact real change.

Historically, lame-duck sessions in Congress have stayed true to their name. In years past, these ses-sions were renowned for lacking the vigor and spirit of their respective pre-election sittings. Whether it be the lack of time to gather consensus, or the lackluster spirit of a group undergoing a radical transformation, these sessions manage to do the impossible and make Congress even more unimpressive. This trend was stalled in 2010, though, when the 111th Congress was able to pass the Stimulus Package, The Middle Class Tax Relief Act of 2010, an arms treaty, and also put the gears in motion to repeal “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell.”

With nothing to lose, the current wave of outgoing congressmen and congresswomen has the opportuni-ty to repeat the success of 2010. It is essential for this congress to accomplish its predecessor’s feat due to the number of challenges it is being asked to address. Pushed to the forefront is the looming threat of falling over the “Fiscal Cliff,” an issue that has no perfect or at-tractive solution. On December 31st, a number of pay-roll tax cuts and tax breaks for businesses will expire, and taxes related to the Affordable Care Act will take effect. In addition, spending cuts related to Debt Ceil-ing negotiations will be initiated. The Congress can choose to let these changes occur (an act which would cut the deficit in half ), intervene to halt the tax in-creases/spending cuts at some level, or install stop-gap measures to push their responsibility to a future date. It

is essential that Congress not only addresses these con-cerns in a timely manner, but that it does so in shrewd manner unmolested by partisan politics. This decision will need to be a precise solution walking the thin line between fostering growth in a stagnant economy and al-lowing the deficit to balloon to an irresponsible size.

Apart from the Fiscal Cliff, there are a number of other loose ends to tie up before the January 3rd deadline. With 37,000 jobs at stake in the wind industry, the lame-duck congress must deal with the expiration of tax credits for wind energy at the end of this year. Notwithstanding a number of Republicans grasping at straws to convince Congress of its economic burden, it appears that there is enough support to renew the tax credits and to push the country forward toward a responsible energy plan. Congress is also faced with the looming expiration of the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act, as well as numer-ous housing-related tax benefits and cost deductions. Congress must address other issues such as immigration reform talks, cybersecurity concerns, the reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act, and disaster aid to states ravaged by Hurricane Sandy. Many of these issues have been continuously put off despite campaign prom-ises to address them, and need to be attended to before further procrastination weakens the country.

Waiting until the final minute, this Congress now has the advantage of accommodating an outgoing group that is less constrained by the purview of political prescrip-tion. Unlike 2010 when the Democrats lost the House and had the incentive to enact immediate change in the lame-duck session before losing their majority, neither house changed hands in this election. However, both chambers saw their majority decrease on November 6th, which could prove to light a fire underneath them strong enough to push through the necessary legislative measures required before the 113th Congress is sworn in. With less than two months, they need to act quickly. The major players will survive the upcoming transfor-mation, but they have good reason to compromise (in fa-vor of the Democrats) in the wake of President Obama’s reelection. The fate of the country for the next year and beyond depends heavily on the actions taken by Con-gress in the remaining month and a half. PP

A CROSSROADS FOR THE LAME-DUCK CONGRESSby Randy Bell ‘13, Events Chair

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After over a year and seven months of fight-ing, Syrian rebel forces finally have an in-ternationally recognized leader to stand be-hind. Last week, Syrian rebel factions and

coalitions united under the preeminent Syrian Nation-al Coalition (SNC). Before this union was formed, Syr-ian rebels were lead separately by multiple groups and coalitions, a situation that was leading to increasingly ugly sectarian conflict in Syria. The SNC was formed during an opposition summit convened under heavy pressure from the United States, who feared that the rebel’s inability to unite under one coalition would lead to a future Islamist theocracy should Bashar al-Assad’s government suddenly fall. Many other Arab countries had also tasked the rebels with uniting, as they had no wish to see a Somalia-esque failed state suddenly arise in the Middle East.

Much to the pleasure of international observers, oppo-sition groups as disparate as the Syrian National Coun-cil and the Muslim Brotherhood managed to unite un-der one group. Elected to lead the coalition is Mouaz al-Khatib, a moderate preacher and former geophysics engineer. Al-Khatib—who has a history of campaigning for religious tolerance and Syrian unity—has been well-received as leader by the governments of many Arab countries, including Turkey and Saudi Arabia, who promptly declared the Syrian National Coalition as the legitimate representative of the Syrian people. France also became the first Western country to recognize the SNC, and stated that it would consider providing arms to the Syrian rebels. Now that the Syrian opposition is unified under one group, it is crucial to ask if Mouaz al-Khatib is capable of leading his coalition through the civil war and towards a new liberal democratic Syria.

The international consequences should al-Khatib find himself unable to lead would be dire. A chief concern of foreign governments is al-Khatib’s political inexpe-rience. While al-Khatib has led a large congregation as imam of the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus and has made speeches flanked by Christians and Alawites, he has never held a political position similar to the one he has now. Should the Syrian opposition forces push Assad from power, al-Khatib will find that the hardest

part of his job, rebuilding a country torn apart by sec-tarianism, has just begun.

In addition to his lack of political experience, some look with skepticism at al-Khatib’s base of support and his historic political statements. The Muslim Brotherhood was instrumental in electing al-Khatib, and they have also propped up opposition leader George Sabra to a top spot in the SNC. In addition, the SNC has established its headquarters in Cairo where they can very easily be influenced the Muslim Brotherhood-led government of Egypt. In terms of his personal history, al-Khatib has a record of anti-Western and anti-Semitic statements. He has given praise in his writings to radical Egyptian preacher Yusuf al-Qaradawi, who has gone on record supporting suicide bombings. In a pointed move, the United States government has yet to recognize the SNC as the sole leader of the opposition, and President Obama has stated that he is committed to a “moderate Syria.”

Successful revolutions of the Arab Spring have a very mixed record in terms of the success seen by post-revolutionary governments. Fresh in American minds is the attack on the American consulate in Benghazi, and the Egyptian government has had a distressingly difficult time securing the Sinai Peninsula and deal-ing with Islamic extremists. Should Syria fall into a state of post-revolutionary chaos following a possible overthrow of the Assad government, Syria’s stockpile of chemical weapons, the third largest in the world, would be essentially up for grabs. Such a scenario presents a real and serious threat for the United States, Europe, and Syria’s Middle Eastern neighbors.

Recent months have seen both car bombings and a mas-sive suicide attack, fueling international fears of the ris-ing prevalence of extremist fighters in Syria. Such fight-ers could quickly turn from the civil war to an insurgency should a future Syrian government fail to satisfy their demands. Mouaz al-Khatib may be considered by many to be a moderate and great unifier, yet his political inex-perience and the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood should still make any foreign government think twice before they take the election of a Syrian opposition lead-er as a green light to lend the rebels military support. PP

MOUAZ AL-KHATIB LEADS SYRIAN NATIONAL COALITION

by Mike Bodner ‘15, Staff Writer


THE NEXT TREASURY SECRETARY

Since President Obama’s re-election on Novem-ber 6th, the efforts of political prognosticators have shifted away from the campaign trail and onto the subject of appointments. Several im-

portant positions need to be filled, including the Secre-tary of State, following Hillary Clinton’s expected resig-nation, and the Head of the CIA, in the wake of General David Petraeus’ recent resignation. However, the most important appointment President Obama has to make is that of the Secretary of the Treasury. Whoever becomes the next Treasury Secretary will have tremendous re-sponsibilities regarding a diverse range of issues. These include managing our economic relationship with China, implementing the Dodd-Frank financial regu-lations, preventing contagion from the Euro crisis in American financial institutions, and creating a compre-hensive and viable plan for tax reform. Due to these and other critical functions of the office, the new Treasury Secretary could very possibly be the most powerful po-sition currently available in the Obama cabinet.

There have been many rumored candidates for the po-sition. They include Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock investment firm; Sheila Bair, the former head of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation; and Erskine Bowles, former Chief of Staff for President Clinton, and a co-author of the Simpson-Bowles plan which in-tended to pay down the national deficit. However, each of these candidates has major flaws. Given the Obama administration’s emphasis on putting “Main Street over Wall Street,” Mr. Fink— as head of the world’s largest asset management firm—may be too close for comfort to the financial sector. On the opposite end of the spec-trum, Ms. Bair may be too opposed to the finance indus-try’s interests to gain Senate confirmation.

This leaves Mr. Bowles, who appears to be the most like-ly and qualified nomination of the three. As a co-author of the Simpson-Bowles plan, he demonstrated the will-ingness to negotiate and act in a bipartisan manner, and he acknowledged the fundamental budgetary reality that any solution to the deficit must involve both revenue in-creases and spending cuts. However, recent reports from White House officials have indicated that Mr. Bowles is unlikely to receive the Treasury nomination.

Instead, the well-documented frontrunner for the position is Jacob Lew, another veteran of the Clinton Administration and the current White House Chief of Staff. In fact, his credentials are very similar to those of Mr. Bowles: both served as a Chief of Staff for Presi-dent Clinton, both have some financial experience (Lew at Citigroup, Bowles at Morgan Stanley), and both are viewed as experts on the budget. Lew spent time as the director of the Office of Management and Budget, and Bowles co-authored his recent report.

Despite this similarity between the two candidates and Mr. Lew’s current position as frontrunner for the position, I feel that Mr. Bowles has two key advan-tages. First, he has demonstrated willingness and ap-titude for working in a bipartisan manner, highlighted by the fact that his partner in the deficit report, Alan Simpson, is a prominent conservative. Second, author-ing the report has raised Bowles’ profile, especially among business leaders. JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Di-mon, has expressed confidence in Mr. Bowles and in the Bowles-Simpson report, along with Jon Mack, for-mer chairman of Morgan Stanley, and other financial leaders. Mr. Lew, conversely, is not well known within the business community. As Andrew Ross Sorkin, a fi-nancial columnist for the New York Times, comments, the response from many members of the business world to Lew’s nomination “might be asking, Mr. Lew who?” While the Treasury Secretary should not be an agent of Wall Street, a strong working relationship with the financial sector is key to the Secretary’s job, and Mr. Bowles has a clear advantage in this regard.

The next Secretary of the Treasury must possess a realistic vision for America’s fiscal future, the abil-ity to bring about compromise from diverse interest groups and coalitions domestically, and the tact and wherewithal to manage the United States’ position as the world’s financial leader. Though Jacob Lew is regarded as the frontrunner, and some have even reported that Erskine Bowles is no longer in the run-ning for the position, Mr. Bowles has the reputation and the ability to compromise that will allow him to best serve the nation’s interest as Secretary of the Treasury. PP

by Virgil Doyle ‘14, Staff Writer

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On Thursday, in a dramatic convention, China unveiled the seven new leaders of its Communist Party. Xi Jinping, the cur-rent Vice-President, succeeded Hu Jintao

as the general secretary of the Communist Party of the People’s Republic of China. Li Keqiang succeeded Wen Jiabao as Premier. Zhang Dejiang, Yu Zhengsh-en, Liu Yunshan, Wang Qishan, and Zhang Gaoli also ascended to the Politburo Standing Committee – the top governing body of the Chinese Communist Party.

Political power in China is centralized in the Commu-nist Party. There is little to no political competition and the Communist Party places great importance on ensuring a seamless transition between new genera-tions of leadership within the party.

With no democratic elections, the Communist Party continues a semi-oligarchic system that selects its own leaders. The Politburo, a committee consisting of 25 members, acts as the ruling body of the party. The most highly-ranked members in the Politburo are known as the Politburo Standing Committee, cur-rently consisting of the seven new members. The top ranked member of the Politburo Standing Committee, the president, is elected for five-year terms. Often, leaders will choose a potential “heir” well in advance in order to prepare them for future power.

The transitions between new generations of leader-ship tend to be extremely secretive and guarded. As the Communist Party aims to project an image of seamless unity, internal debates and struggles dur-ing the selection process are virtually unknown to the public. This secretive process begs the question: who really are the new leaders of China?

Of the top two leaders, Xi Jinping is what is known in Chi-na as a “princeling,” or a descendent of a highly-ranked Communist Party member. The term “princeling” tends to carry unfavorable connotations of nepotism. Never-theless, Xi Jinping has a reputation of modesty and ef-fective leadership, having worked his way up the party through various administrative positions in China’s provinces. Li Keqiang, like President Hu Jintao, rose to

power through the Communist Youth League. Li Keq-iang is not a princeling and has an extensive background in economics and finance. However, he is regarded as less charismatic than outgoing Premier Wen Jiabao.

What does this all mean for China and the United States? Given the severe lack of information about many of the Politburo Standing Committee members, it can be dif-ficult to project the path of China’s future. Many of the new members are princelings; however, some, includ-ing Xi Jinping, are known to be more friendly towards the West and open-market economics.

Still, major reform is not likely to occur under the new lead-ership. The more liberal members of the Politburo were de-cidedly not raised to the Standing Committee, thus signaling an intention for a more conservative and cautious adminis-tration. Furthermore, many of the new members have close ties with the old former party leader Jiang Zemin, revealing a still-present connection to old party ideology.

Xi Jinping is regarded as more likeable and down-to-earth than his predecessor, Hu Jintao. In a speech fol-lowing his appointment, Xi made no mention of Hu or former well-known Communist leaders. Rather, he criticized corruption in China’s government, promised to help improve the lives of citizens, and called for a “rejuvenation” of the country – a stark contrast to the somewhat enigmatic and bland personality of Hu Ji-nato. At the same time, Xi Jinping made no mention of increased democracy or civil liberties.

Ultimately, China faces major challenges as it moves on to its Fifth Generation of leadership. While China remains the world’s second-largest economy, it also faces slowing economic growth, a rapidly aging popu-lation and a potentially devastating property bubble. Ongoing political unrest in Tibet, territorial disputes in the South China Sea, an unfavorable history of hu-man rights abuses, and a younger generation that is growing increasingly Internet-savvy and pushing for democratic reform only add to the obstacles the new leadership will have to overcome. Although China’s new leaders intend to sustain the status quo, they may soon be forced to adapt to rapidly changing times. PP

A NEW BEGINNING? CHINA AND ITS NEW LEADERSHIP

by Peter Lee ‘14, Contributing Writer


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The Politik Press, Volume XII, Issue 10

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