The Political Geography of AIDS Alan Whiteside Director,HEARD, University of KwaZulu-Natal and...
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The Political Geography of AIDS Alan Whiteside Director,HEARD, University of KwaZulu- Natal and Leverhulme Visiting Professor, Centre for AIDS Research Southampton University
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The Political Geography of AIDS
Alan Whiteside
Director,HEARD, University of KwaZulu-Natal and
Leverhulme Visiting Professor, Centre for AIDS Research Southampton University
Outline of presentation
• Physical geography
• Economic geography
• Human geography
–Demography
–Development
HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 1986-
2001
20 – 39%
10 – 20%
5 – 10%
1 – 5%
0 – 1%
trend data unavailable
outside region
1986 1991
1996 2001
HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, end
2001
20 – 39%
10 – 20%
5 – 10%
1 – 5%
0 – 1%
trend data unavailable
outside region
2001
5
HIV Prevalence
1 - 3%
3 - 6%
6 - 9%
9 - 12%
12 - 15%
15 - 18%
18 - 21%
21 - 24%
24 - 27%
27 - 30%
30 - 33%
33 - 36.2%
Provinces
Northern Cape
Eastern Cape
Free State
North West
Western Cape
Northern Province
KwaZulu-Natal
MpumalangaGauteng
1997Northern Cape
Eastern Cape
Free State
North West
Western Cape
Northern Province
KwaZulu-Natal
MpumalangaGauteng
1998
Northern Cape
Eastern Cape
Free State
North West
Western Cape
Northern Province
KwaZulu-Natal
MpumalangaGauteng
1999
Northern Cape
Eastern Cape
Free State
North West
Western Cape
Northern Province
KwaZulu-Natal
MpumalangaGauteng
2000
Northern Cape
Eastern Cape
Free State
North West
Western Cape
Northern Province
KwaZulu-Natal
MpumalangaGauteng
1994
Northern Cape
Eastern Cape
Free State
North West
Western Cape
Northern Province
KwaZulu-Natal
MpumalangaGauteng
1995
Northern Cape
Eastern Cape
Free State
North West
Western Cape
Northern Province
KwaZulu-Natal
MpumalangaGauteng
1996
Progression of HIV Prevalence in South AfricaTrends Amongst Provincial AnteNatal Clinic Attendees, 1994-2000
Source: National HIV and Syphilis Sero-PrevalenceSurvey of Women Attending Public AnteNatalClinics in South Africa, 1994 - 2000.
The Health Economics & HIV/AIDS Research DivisionUniversity of NatalKing George V AvenueDurban, 4041Tel: +27 31 260 2592Fax: +27 31 260 2587Email: [email protected]: www.und.ac.za/und/heard
Developed by Susan Erskine & Lucinda Franklin
We wish to acknowledge the assistance of staff atEduAction in the development of this output.In particular, we wish to thank Daniel Wilson for hisinvaluable guidance, time and provision of resources.
Legend
Intro.
Outline of presentation
• Physical geography
• Economic geography
• Human geography
–Demography
–Development
Wealth and HIV
1000 $
2000 $
3000 $
Per capita 1999
Adult HIV prevalence end 1999
Botswana
South Africa
Namibia
Swaziland
ZimbabweUganda
Cote d’Ivoire
Zambia10
10 20 30
Debswana Diamond Company (Pty) Ltd
HIV Prevalence by Job Band
30.9% 30.7%27.6%
19.3% 18.8%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
A Band B Band C Band D Band F Band
% H
IV p
osi
tiv
e e
mp
loy
ee
s in
eac
h jo
b b
and
World HIV Chart World HIV Chart 20012001
Perc
en
t ad
ult
s liv
ing
wit
h H
IV
(log
)
0.1
Annual income per person in US dollar (ppp & log)
300 40 0001
0005
00010
00020
0002
000500
0.5
1
5
10
30
20
7
3
2
Alg
eria
Angola
Argentina
Armenia
Aus
tral
ia
Austria
Aze
rbai
jan
Bahrain
Ban
glad
esh
Barbados
Belarus
Belgium
Belize
Benin
Bhu
tan
Bol
ivia
Botswana
Brazil
Bul
garia
Burundi
Cambodia
Cameroon
Canada
Central African Rep.
Chad
Chile
Chi
na
Colombia
Costa Rica
Côte d'Ivoire
Cro
atia
Cub
a
Cyprus
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Denmark
Dominican Rep.
EcuadorEg
ypt
El Salvado
r
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea
Estonia
Ethiopia
Fiji
Finl
and
France
Geo
rgia
Ger
man
y
Ghana
Greece
Guatemala
Guinea-Bissau
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Hun
gary
Iceland
Indo
nesi
a
Irel
and
Isra
el
Italy
Jamaica
Japa
n
Jord
an
Kenya
Rep
ublic
of K
orea
Latvia
Lesotho
Lith
uani
a
Luxembourg
Madagascar
Malawi
Malaysia
Mal
dive
s
Mali
Mal
ta
Mau
ritius
Mexico
Mon
golia
Mor
occo
Mozambique
Namibia
Nepal
Netherlands
New
Zea
land
Nicaragua
Nigeria
Nor
way
Paki
sta
n
Panama
Papua New Guinea
PeruPh
ilipp
ines
Portugal
Rom
ania
Russia
Rwanda
Senegal
Sierra Leone
Singapore
Slov
enia
South Africa
Spain
Sri L
anka
Sudan
Suriname
Swaziland
Sw
eden
Switzerland
Tajik
ista
n
Thailand
Togo
Trinidad & Tobago
Turk
ey
Turk
men
ista
n
Uganda
Ukraine
Uni
ted
King
dom
United Statesof America
Uruguay
Uzb
ekis
tan
Venezuela
Yem
en
Zambia
Zimbabwe
BurkinaFaso
India
AIDS deaths per year
300 000100 00010 000
1 000
Africa
Americas
Arab countries
Asia
Europe
Continents
0.2
0.3
World HIV Chart World HIV Chart 20012001
Perc
en
t ad
ult
s liv
ing
wit
h H
IV
(log
)
0.1
Annual income per person in US dollar (ppp & log)300 40 000
1 000
5 000
10 000
20 000
2 000
500
0.5
1
5
10
30
20
7
3
2
Alg
eria
Angola
Argentina
Armenia
Aus
tral
ia
Austria
Aze
rbai
jan
Bahrain
Ban
glad
esh
Barbados
Belarus
Belgium
Belize
Benin
Bhu
tan
Bol
ivia
Botswana
Brazil
Bul
garia
Burundi
Cambodia
Cameroon
Canada
Central African Rep.
Chad
Chile
Chi
na
Colombia
Costa Rica
Côte d'Ivoire
Cro
atia
Cub
a
Cyprus
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Denmark
Dominican Rep.
EcuadorEg
ypt
El Salvador
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea
Estonia
Ethiopia
Fiji
Finl
and
France
Geo
rgia
Ger
man
y
Ghana
Greece
Guatemala
Guinea-Bissau
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Hun
gary
Iceland
Indo
nesi
a
Irel
and
Isra
el
Italy
Jamaica
Japa
n
Jord
an
Kenya
Rep
ublic
of K
orea
Latvia
Lesotho
Lith
uani
a
Luxembourg
Madagascar
Malawi
Malaysia
Mal
dive
s
Mali
Mal
ta
Mau
ritiu
s
Mexico
Mon
golia
Mor
occo
Mozambique
Namibia
Nepal
Netherlands
New
Zea
land
Nicaragua
Nigeria
Nor
way
Paki
sta
n
Panama
Papua New Guinea
Peru
Phili
ppin
es
Portugal
Rom
ania
Russia
Rwanda
Senegal
Sierra Leone
Singapore
Slov
enia
South Africa
Spain
Sri L
anka
Sudan
Suriname
Swaziland
Swed
en
Switzerland
Tajik
ista
n
Thailand
Togo
Trinidadand Tobago
Turk
ey
Turk
men
ista
n
Uganda
Ukraine
Uni
ted
King
dom
United Statesof America
Uruguay
Uzb
ekis
tan
Venezuela
Yem
en
Zambia
Zimbabwe
BurkinaFaso
India
AIDS deaths per year
300 000100 00010 000
1 000
Africa
Americas
Arab countries
Asia
Europe
Continents
0.2
0.3
X200?
World HIV Chart World HIV Chart 20012001
Perc
en
t ad
ult
s liv
ing
wit
h H
IV (
log
)
0.1
Annual income per person in US dollar (purchasing power) Log
300 40 0001
0005
00010
00020
0002
000500
0.5
1
5
10
30
20
7
3
2
Alg
eria
Angola
Argentina
Armenia
Aus
tral
ia
Austria
Aze
rbai
jan
Bahrain
Ban
glad
esh
Barbados
Belarus
Belgium
Belize
Benin
Bhu
tan
Bol
ivia
Botswana
Brazil
Bul
garia
Burundi
Cambodia
Cameroon
Canada
Central African Rep.
Chad
Chile
Chi
na
Colombia
Costa Rica
Côte d'Ivoire
Cro
atia
Cub
a
Cyprus
Cze
ch R
epub
lic
Denmark
Dominican Republic
EcuadorEg
ypt
El Salvador
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea
Estonia
Ethiopia
Fiji
Finl
and
France
Geo
rgia
Ger
man
y
Ghana
Greece
Guatemala
Guinea-Bissau
Guyana
Haiti
Honduras
Hun
gary
Iceland
Indo
nesi
a
Irel
and
Isra
el
Italy
Jamaica
Japa
n
Jord
an
Kenya
Rep
ublic
of K
orea
Latvia
Lesotho
Lith
uani
a
Luxembourg
Madagascar
Malawi
Malaysia
Mal
dive
s
Mali
Mal
ta
Mau
ritiu
s
Mexico
Mon
golia
Mor
occo
Mozambique
Namibia
Nepal
Netherlands
New
Zea
land
Nicaragua
Nigeria
Nor
way
Paki
sta
n
Panama
PapuaNew Guinea
Peru
Phili
ppin
es
Portugal
Rom
ania
Russia
Rwanda
Senegal
Sierra Leone
Singapore
Slov
enia
South Africa
Spain
Sri L
anka
Sudan
Suriname
Swaziland
Swed
en
Switzerland
Tajik
ista
n
Thailand
Togo
Trinidadand Tobago
Turk
ey
Turk
men
ista
n
Uganda
Ukraine
Uni
ted
King
dom
United Statesof America
Uruguay
Uzb
ekis
tan
Venezuela
Yem
en
Zambia
Zimbabwe
BurkinaFaso
India
AIDS deaths per year
300 000100 00010 000
1 000
Africa
Americas
Arab countries
Asia
Europe
Continents
0.2
0.3
10 X20=200
Outline of presentation
• Physical geography
• Economic geography
• Human geography
–Demography
–Development
0
10
20
30
40
50
6019
85
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Mil
lio
ns
Tota
l po
pu
lati
on
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Mil
lio
ns
Nu
mb
ers
HIV
, AID
S s
ick
and
HIV
dea
ths
Totalpopulation
Total HIV
TotalnumberAIDS sick
CumulativeHIVdeaths
Numbers infected, sick & dead ASSA2000
All orphans & orphans due to AIDS by HIV prevalence Uganda
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year0
0.5 million
1 million
1.5 million
2 million
Total Number
0
6%
12%
HIV Prevalence
Total Orphans
AIDS Orphans
HIV Prevalence
Estimated and projected deaths 15-34, with and without AIDS in South Africa: 1980-2025
Source: UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2002) World Population Prospects, the 2000 Revision
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
Death
s (
thou
san
ds)
1980-19851985-1990
1990-1995
1995-20002000-2005
2005-2010
2010-20152015-2020
2020-2025
Without AIDS With AIDS
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Cambodia
Haiti
Mozambique
Rwanda
Côte d'Ivoire
Zambia
Kenya
South Africa
Zimbabwe
Botswana
Life expectancy at birth (years)
Predicted life expectancy Loss in life expectancy due to HIV/AIDS
Predicted loss in life expectancy Predicted loss in life expectancy due to HIV/AIDS in children born in due to HIV/AIDS in children born in
20002000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000
Estimated increase in adult death rates relative to the 1985 rates
Women
0.000
0.500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64
Age
Rati
o
1994
1996
1997/8
1998/99
1999/2000
Outline of presentation
• Physical geography
• Economic geography
• Human geography
–Demography
–Development
Changing life expectancy in African countries with high and low HIV prevalence: 1950-2005
Source: UNAIDS, 2002. Report on the global HIV/AIDS epidemic
Projected Population Structure: Botswana 20202020
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
020406080100120140 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Males Females
Deficits due to AIDS
Projected population structure in 2020
Population (thousands)
Ag
e in
yea
rs
Source: US Census Bureau, World Population Profile 2000
