Safety Improvement Techniques for Electric Vehicle Powertrains
The Next 20 Years: Powertrains Come and Go: When, Why ... · “Mild Hybrid 48V Vehicles...
Transcript of The Next 20 Years: Powertrains Come and Go: When, Why ... · “Mild Hybrid 48V Vehicles...
The Next 20 Years: Powertrains Come and Go: When, Why, What Next?
By Dr Peter Harrop
IDTechEx [email protected]
www.idtechex.com
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Electric vehicles land, water and air are now one business for OEMs and component
manufacturers.
Industrial/ commercial market much bigger than cars.
Pure electric coming in fast for many reasons. “Silent city”.
End game for many vehicles is autonomous in navigation and task but autonomy hardware
will be commoditised. Software/ services big business.
Toxic gases and materials increasingly banned.
End game for far more vehicles will be energy independence usually using photovoltaics and
wind.
New electrical regeneration, structural electronics, power electronics become more important
and batteries less important.
Car sales will peak. Other sales carry on up. OEMs reposition.
Politics hugely changes powertrain demand. Example: China U turn - HEV 30% of sales
2030. Probably a steal on conventional and 48V mild hybrid.
Companies sharply change position. Example: Toyota and Volkswagen crash programs on
pure electric led by CEO.
Fuel cell hybrids will never gain major market share
Key takeaways: powertrains 2017-2037
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Autonomy hits sales of cars but not of other vehicles
Four brief pure electric modes possibly available with 48V mild hybrids in
later years, so some will call them EVs
Peak ICE
Peak car
2035 “Last ICE car
made if global warming
plan met” CAT
48V
MHCONVENTIONAL
ICE
Peak electric
car 2035?
GOOD
NEWS!As cars suffer,
many new EV
markets open
up –
Personal
aircraft, robot
vacuum cleaner,
grass cutting,
delivery….
bus-taxis,
microEVs,
motorbikes,
boats,
Autonomous
Underwater
Vehicles….
Car decline mainly due to 70% living
in cities where cars are banned or
discouraged. One autonomous taxi-
bus replaces 20 cars?
Cars have exceptionally low utilisation so they are threatened by autonomy because that can lead to much higher utilisation as taxis.
Units K car market globally
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Energy Independent Vehicle EIV
THE END GAMEis propelled entirely by electricity created on-board
from wind (when parked), sun, heat etc.
It may or may not have energy storage
Micro hybrid
means
conventional
vehicle with
system that
switches off
the engine
whenever it
stops. Some
regenerative
braking
Mild hybrid
means electric
torque assist
permits
smaller engine
Full
regenerative
braking
50-75%
cheaper than
full hybrid. 20-
30kW versions
will be possible
Plug-in Pure Electric Vehicle to EIV PEVis propelled entirely by electric motors. No fuelled engine on-board
Powertrain graphics by Continental
Not plug-in
Conventional vehicles able
to handle some energy harvesting
inputs Full hybrid is propulsion by electric
motor at low speed with engine off.
Full regenerative braking. Some plug
in for extra electricity/ electric range.
Pure electric vehicles where many forms of external and
regeneration harvesting by the vehicle are key enabling
technology
Electric vehicle powertrain evolution: typical figures expected for cars
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Autonomy systems for volume are commoditised
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Diesel is a four letter
wordNo more NOx, SOx, particulates, CO2,
noise or vibration please.
Lead is a four letter
wordNo more deaths and birth defects from
smelting, disposal please. No more
maintenance/ replacement hassle please
The law is getting
tighter. Public
attitude
hardening.The Porsche 625 kW 918 Spyder hybrid car
and many pure electric vehicles have
no lead-acid battery
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Here comes multiple external energy harvesting:
IFEVS EIV pizza van self-powers travel, oven, lighting
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Case Study: Hanergy Solar O
Spec
18kWh Li-ion Battery
Solar Surface: 2.5m²
Extendable Windshield increases surface area
to: 3.2m²
Energy acquired (max): 4.2kWh/day
Range: 125mi/200km (@28mph/45kph)
Gross weight: 1200kg (Carbon-fiber)
100% Powered by Solar
Launch date 2020
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Type: Helium inflatable aerofoil aircraft: heavier-than-air vehicle
that can be filled with normal air or get performance
with helium, making energy autonomy more realistic.
Name: Solar Ship
Designer/ manufacturer: Solar Ship
Status: Concept . $Ms funding obtained
External energy harvesting: PV
Extreme powertrain efficiency: ?
Extreme lightweighting: Yes
Extreme aerodynamics/
hydrodynamics/streamlining:
• Yes within constraints
• Next generation energy storage:
• not known
Carries 35 tonnes cargo
Truck reinvented
Solar Ship EIV helium inflatable fixed wing aircraft Canada
autonomous, energy independent sun alone
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Dielectric
Elastomer
Generators
Triboelectric
Nanogenerators
Powertrains reinvented
70 kWwind
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The boat that climbs mountains: Vanquisher soon
Industrial vehicles often need
power surges
48V for safety. 45 degree slope.
Supercapacitor not battery
Switched reluctance motors
SiC and GaN semiconductors
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LX1 “fundamentally a new machine” 98% new parts
Doing work of L150-size wheel loader
Key to Electric Site research ending 2018.
“We get much greater efficiency with electric. Unlike
mechanical/ hydraulic systems, with electric we
decouple, move everything around, change the way the
machine runs. Subsystems can be optimized
individually, so greater efficiency.”
Results:
• Electric motors on wheel hubs, Volvo eliminated axles, moved the
bucket close to centre = Lifts more with a smaller machine.
• Additional energy storage = smaller engine.
• Small electric motors propel the hydraulics. 50% better fuel
efficiency.
Volvo hybrid wheel loader + Pure electric autonomous carrier
“and this can go much, much further than a wheel loader”
Pure electric drive
train is compatible
with its autonomy
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Trend to less
mechanical, more
electrical/electronic
LeTourneau
switched reluctance
motors near wheel,
solid metal rotor.
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Traditional motor
controls, BMS get cleverer
External energy harvesting:
solar, wind, tide, wave, 6D
motion, etc.
V2H
V2G
Faster charger on-board, inductive
charger.
New regen. EH suspension,
triboelectric tires, turbine in hybrid
exhaust, 6D motion harvester
etc.
Power electronics
becomes much more
Less battery needed
as we progress to
energy independence
See IDTechEx reports
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Read the IDTechEx reports such as,
“Electric Vehicles Will Change the World 2017-2037”
Overview with forecasts in 46 categories
“Energy Independent Electric Vehicles 2017-2037”
“Autonomous Vehicles Land, Water, Air 2017-2037”
“Energy Harvesting/ Regeneration for Electric Vehicles 2017-2037”
“Mild Hybrid 48V Vehicles 2016-2031”
“Future Powertrains 2017-2027”
“Electric Boats and Ships 2017-2027”
“Electric Drones: Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) 2017-2027”
“Industrial and Commercial Vehicles on Land 2017-2027”
“Energy Harvesting Microwatts to Megawatts 2017-2027”
www.idtechex.com
For more
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