The Ipsos MORI / Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker q2 2014

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Ipsos MORI SlideShare summary of findings & trends

28/07/2014

Q2 2014

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+9

-2

+7

+19 +15 +15

+20

+33 +40

+64 +66 +65 +66

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Apr-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jul-14

HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+)

Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or

will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price sourced from Halifax HPI]

Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI Housing Market Confidence Tracker

Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+

House Price Outlook trend

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+9

-2 +7

+19 +15 +15

+20

+33 +40

+64 +66 +65 +66

-28 -32

-48

-14

-32

-9 -6

-19

0

+23

+15 +23

+29

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80


HPO

EOI

HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower

EOI – balance of % improve minus % get worse


will it be the same? (HPO)

Q. Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or

get worse over the next 12 months? (EOI)

Source: EOI – Ipsos MORI

(measures in advance of HMCT fieldwork)

HPO and EOI trends

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+9

-2

+7

+19

+15 +15 +20

+33

+40

+64 +66 +65 +66

13% 11% 15%

24%

10% 13%

18% 21%

30%

41%

51% 56% 57%

-20

0

20

40

60

80


HPO

Sellingsentiment(%)



Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to sell a property?

HPO and selling sentiment


Selling

sentiment

(% agree good

time to sell)

HPO – balance

of % higher

minus % lower

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‘Higher’ trends

4%

11%

26%

30%

16%

0

20

40





% the same

% < 5% higher

% 5 - 10% higher

% > 15% higher

% 10 - 15% higher

© Ipsos MORI

‘Lower’ trends

0%

1%

4%

16%

0

20

40





% the same

% < 5% lower

% 5 - 10% lower

% > 15% lower

% 10 - 15% lower

© Ipsos MORI

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80Net (±)

Net good time sell

Net good time buy

-43

-63

+18 +17

Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property?


-64

+15

-38

+24

-55

+23

-62

+27

Base: 1,000-2,000 British adults 16+

Apr

2011

Oct

2011

Jan

2012

Mar

2012

June

2012

Oct

2012

Dec

2012

+20

-58

+25

-42

Mar

2013

+27

-26

June

2013

Sept

2013

+12

+35

-6

Dec

2013

Buying and selling sentiment

Mar

2014

+24

+25 +34

+25

+5

Jul

2014

© Ipsos MORI

Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property?

Good time buy/ good time sell

14% 24%

32% 17%

Buying/selling sentiment combined


Base: 1,966 GB adults 16+, 4-14 July 2014

Good time buy/ bad time sell

Bad time buy/ good time sell

Bad time buy/ bad time sell

-10 -4 +12 +3

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70%

higher

Regional dimension: house prices

Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12

months time or will it be the same?

Source: Ipsos MORI for Halifax

71%

higher

5%

lower

GB London

South

England

77%

higher

3%

lower

North

England

80%

higher

4%

lower

7%

lower

Base: 1,966 GB adults 4-14 July 2014, including 263 in London, 349 South England (SE, SW), 511 North England (NW, NE, Y&H) and

356 in the Midlands.

70%

higher

Midlands

2%

lower

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49%

Regional buying sentiment

Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad

time for people in general to buy a property?


GB London

South

England

North

England Midlands

45%

good time

Base: 1,966 GB adults 16+, 4-14 July 2014, including 263 in London, 349 South England (SE, SW), 511 North England (NW, NE, Y&H)

and 356 in the Midlands.

52%

bad time

33%

good time

47%

42%

bad time

53%

good time

35%

bad time

49%

39%

bad time

© Ipsos MORI

73%

good time

Regional selling sentiment

Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad

time for people in general to sell a property?


32%

bad time

GB London South

England North

England Midlands

57%

good time

65%

good time 52%

good time

Base: 1,966 GB adults 16+, 4-14 July 2014, including 263 in London, 349 South England (SE, SW), 511 North England (NW, NE, Y&H)

and 356 in the Midlands.

46%

21%

bad time

22%

bad time

43%

bad time 37%

bad time

© Ipsos MORI

PRS rent expectations (PRS renters)

13%

53%

27%

3%

0

20

40

60


Q. What do you think will happen to the rents tenants are charged by private landlords that is individuals and

companies in the private sector (i.e. not local councils and housing associations). Taking your answer from

this screen and regardless of whether or not you rent your home, do you think that private rents will be

higher, lower, or will they be the same in 12 months time?


Base: c300-400 private renters

% a little higher

% the same

% a lot higher

% a lot/little lower

© Ipsos MORI

55%

49%

35%

28%

22%

18%

9%

7%

5%

3%

3%

3%

Raise deposit

Job security

Rising property prices

Household finances

Availability of mortgages

Concerns - interest rate rises

Fees and costs of buying a house

Shortage of property for sale

Shortage of the right type of property

Level of stamp duty / taxation

Falling property prices

Don't know

Q. Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property?


Base: 1,966 GB adults 16+, 4-14 July 2014

Barriers to buying

Change +

-5

-2

+5

-3

+2

+3

-1

-2

-1

0

-9

0

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28/07/2014

Further information is available here

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http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3167/Halifax-Housing-Market-Confidence-Tracker.aspx

The Ipsos MORI / Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker q2 2014

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Transcript of The Ipsos MORI / Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker q2 2014