The Good, Bad and Ugly of the 2015 Global Economy AGLF ... · May 7, 2015 Strategy, Forecasting,...

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May 7, 2015 Strategy, Forecasting, Risk Analysis The Good, Bad and Ugly of the 2015 Global Economy AGLF - Denver Chris Kuehl Managing Director – Armada Corporate Intelligence Economic Analyst – NACM, FMA

Transcript of The Good, Bad and Ugly of the 2015 Global Economy AGLF ... · May 7, 2015 Strategy, Forecasting,...

Page 1: The Good, Bad and Ugly of the 2015 Global Economy AGLF ... · May 7, 2015 Strategy, Forecasting, Risk Analysis The Good, Bad and Ugly of the 2015 Global Economy AGLF - Denver Chris

May 7, 2015 Strategy, Forecasting, Risk Analysis

The Good, Bad and Ugly of the

2015 Global Economy

AGLF - Denver

Chris Kuehl

Managing Director – Armada Corporate Intelligence

Economic Analyst – NACM, FMA

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2 www.armada-intel.com [email protected] May 7, 2015

Have I Lowered Expectations Enough Now?

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Europe Sees the US

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4 www.armada-intel.com [email protected] May 7, 2015

What’s Up With Oil?

• The American Contribution

– Import and exports

– Cost structure of shale oil

• The OPEC contribution

– Market share battle

• Russia’s contribution

– All about cash flow

• Europe’s contribution

– Third recession in five years

• Asia’s contribution

– Slow shift away from export centered economy in China

– Low export demand in general

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Falling Much?

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Imports Falling Like a Rock

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Growth in 2015

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Really Bad

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Public Debt

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Trade Deficit

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Dollar Value

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Just Sayin’

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China Slows Down

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Better than Most

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Just How Big is the US?

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The Global PMI Story

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Combined CMI

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Manufacturing CMI

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Service CMI