The End Of Control and the Future of Content: Futurist Gerd Leonhard Authors@Google (San Francisco)

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

The End of Control & The Future of ContentGerd Leonhard @Google San Francisco March 2 2009

www.mediafuturist.comwww.endofcontrol.com

http://www.mediafuturist.com


http://www.endofcontrol.com

http://www.endofcontrol.com

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Some recommended resources

Wikinomics (Don Tapscott)The Wealth of Networks (Yochai Benkler)

Here Comes Everybody (Clay Shirky)Crowdsourcing (Jeff Howe)The Technium (Kevin Kelly)

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The global economic fabric has changed

Some trusted old business models

seem to have suddenly stopped working

Dominance becomes much harder to achieve

Collaboration emerges as

essential success paradigm

Open systems are starting to ‘win-

win’ everywhere


Yochai Benkler (The Wealth of Networks):

“Collaborative projects like Wikipedia and

Linux represent the next stage of

human organization”


Words... and Actions?

Source: Accenture 08


Production Competition Authority Copyright Ownership Control

Empowered Individuals Incumbent Companies

‘Developing’ Countries ‘Developed’ Countries

Authorized ProfessionalsProfessional Amateurs


Defining Control

Own the customer...Control distribution...

Target and hit consumers...Fight competition...I win you lose


It used to be


The Past: Control The Future: Trust

Source: Flickr.com/francesco_e


From

To


Together, Broadband Culture, Mobility and Convergence are quickly re-

defining how we think about:

•Privacy•Authority•Ownership / Copyright•Value (period) i.e. ‘Selling’ and Marketing•R&D, and Production•Work•Education


3D printers: downloading products


Imagine using a software that encodes detailed specifications of something and then seeing that object emerge from a box on your desk no bigger than a microwave oven... (source: ECommerce Times)


One of Google’s challenges is to guide content creators

and owners into this new world


Copy Economy

Access / Usage / Sharing Economy


How to reach the people formerly known as

consumers?

What to give away and what to sell?

How not to be commoditized?

How to maintain value?How to make sure they

keep coming back?


Content 2.0: a new ecosystemContent and application players connect with search engines, web portals, social

networks, brands and telecoms to determine a new balance of power.

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Starting in 2009:•Total convergence of Telecom & Web Layers•Deep collaboration becomes the KEY requirement for creating new business opps

•Over-the top layers (search, social media...) must come down, telecoms must move up!


All of a sudden

MEDIA &

ENTER-TAIN-MENT

COMMU-

NICATION &

TELE-COM

ADVER-TISING

CONTENTSEARCH


And finally: TV2.0


The printing press gave birth to CopyrightThe Internetgives birth to Sharing Rights


...the Output (i.e. publish, re-mix, co-create, life-stream...)the Input (i.e. remuneration in cash, attention, reputation...)... the Thruput (i.e. usage data, meta content, attention trails >> New Data Economics)

The Sharing Economy Logic

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist ‘Old’ Content Economy

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist But now...Chris ‘Free Wired LongTail’ Anderson:

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist ‘Free’ gets my Attention...

Merit and Trust gets my Money.


Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Now Consumers... dictate!

Gerd Leonhard Media FuturistA new Content Economy


Value &Merit

Attention

3rd Party Pays

I Pay


Ads 2.0Attention

3rd Party Pays

I Pay

Data Usage

Affiliates

PremiumsUGC

SharingBundles

A really new Content Economy

Gerd Leonhard Media FuturistUser = Content = $$$


Source: kk.org

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Imho,

Google needs to get involved

in making ‘free’ Internet

content legal and

monetizable


The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes

0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

Was Is Soon Near Future Mid-term Future

Copy Based Revenues Attention Based Revenues


From

To

The Content Industries are going...


Content 2.0: make it availableget users ‘addicted’sell everything around

and up from Content


What we can learn from the music industry: the focus onControl is not a profitable business model for the Future

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Trust... IS!


Kevin Kelly @ kk.org

Revenues are a Consequence of Attention

Where ever attention flows, money will

follow


What is wrong with this picture?


A victim of too much control: Music


2009


A tough gig: bridging


Control Trust


http://flickr.com/photos/ryananderson/

Uncorking the Trust Economy




0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Was Is Soon The Future

Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard)

Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXTValue of Meta-Content Value of ExperiencesValue of Packaging

Value of ‘a Copy’

Value of ContextValue of Experience

Value of Meta-ContentValue of Packaging


21st century content economicsinfluenced by Kevin Kelly, Chris Anderson, Don Tapscott, Yochai Benkler...

TrustImmediacy

IndividualizationPackagingSelection / Filtering

ConvenienceConversation

Gerd Leonhard Media FuturistContent Economy Trends

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2012 2015

Percentage of Revenues from Digital Services

Music Video Games Books Mags & Print


Filter Failure

Clay Shirky, author of "Here Comes Everybody" and professor of new media at New York University:

We suffer "not from information overload but filtering failure”


http://flickr.com/photos/meganmcintosh/

The Ubiquity of Content creates the increasing need for Filtering & Packaging - and in some cases,

Filters will be paid-for while the Content

may...not!




2009: The Redefinition of ‘Telecom’

Data Pipe

Content Pipe

Experience PlatformService Pipe


0

2.5

5

7.5

10

Calls SMS Data Content Services Experiences

Telecom Control LevelGoogle Opportunity


The Crowd + the Cloud = Future


Information > ConversationInterruption > EngagementAnnoyance > Entertainment

This is an Ad > This is Content


•Display ads are the past - engagement, involvement and interactivity are the future

•The currency is Personal Information & Data: getting it / buying it, renting it, borrowing it, selling it... keeping it

•The new, old deal: in exchange for value, we surrender valuable data

•The new creative mission: products and services that have advertising and marketing built-in!


New Data Economy

New Content Economy

Next Generation Advertising


New Data

Economy

New Content Economy

Next Generation Advertising

Some of the Players in this turf


Advertising Content

Communications


Hollywood’s Control Crisis is a huge

opportunity.

Source: Flickr.com/unknown


The fight for Control was a fight for Distribution.

The flight for Attention is a fight for Trust.

The beneficiaries of Control were Monopolies.

The beneficiaries of Trust are those that Collaborate


Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com Twitter.com/gleonhard [email protected]

Thanks for listening



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The End Of Control and the Future of Content: Futurist Gerd Leonhard Authors@Google (San Francisco)

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Transcript of The End Of Control and the Future of Content: Futurist Gerd Leonhard Authors@Google (San Francisco)