Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The End of Control & The Future of ContentGerd Leonhard @Google San Francisco March 2 2009
www.mediafuturist.comwww.endofcontrol.com
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Some recommended resources
Wikinomics (Don Tapscott)The Wealth of Networks (Yochai Benkler)
Here Comes Everybody (Clay Shirky)Crowdsourcing (Jeff Howe)The Technium (Kevin Kelly)
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The global economic fabric has changed
Some trusted old business models
seem to have suddenly stopped working
Dominance becomes much harder to achieve
Collaboration emerges as
essential success paradigm
Open systems are starting to ‘win-
win’ everywhere
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Yochai Benkler (The Wealth of Networks):
“Collaborative projects like Wikipedia and
Linux represent the next stage of
human organization”
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Production Competition Authority Copyright Ownership Control
Empowered Individuals Incumbent Companies
‘Developing’ Countries ‘Developed’ Countries
Authorized ProfessionalsProfessional Amateurs
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Defining Control
Own the customer...Control distribution...
Target and hit consumers...Fight competition...I win you lose
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Together, Broadband Culture, Mobility and Convergence are quickly re-
defining how we think about:
•Privacy•Authority•Ownership / Copyright•Value (period) i.e. ‘Selling’ and Marketing•R&D, and Production•Work•Education
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Imagine using a software that encodes detailed specifications of something and then seeing that object emerge from a box on your desk no bigger than a microwave oven... (source: ECommerce Times)
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
One of Google’s challenges is to guide content creators
and owners into this new world
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
How to reach the people formerly known as
consumers?
What to give away and what to sell?
How not to be commoditized?
How to maintain value?How to make sure they
keep coming back?
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Content 2.0: a new ecosystemContent and application players connect with search engines, web portals, social
networks, brands and telecoms to determine a new balance of power.
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Starting in 2009:•Total convergence of Telecom & Web Layers•Deep collaboration becomes the KEY requirement for creating new business opps
•Over-the top layers (search, social media...) must come down, telecoms must move up!
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
All of a sudden
MEDIA &
ENTER-TAIN-MENT
COMMU-
NICATION &
TELE-COM
ADVER-TISING
CONTENTSEARCH
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The printing press gave birth to CopyrightThe Internetgives birth to Sharing Rights
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
...the Output (i.e. publish, re-mix, co-create, life-stream...)the Input (i.e. remuneration in cash, attention, reputation...)... the Thruput (i.e. usage data, meta content, attention trails >> New Data Economics)
The Sharing Economy Logic
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist ‘Free’ gets my Attention...
Merit and Trust gets my Money.
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Ads 2.0Attention
3rd Party Pays
I Pay
Data Usage
Affiliates
PremiumsUGC
SharingBundles
A really new Content Economy
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Imho,
Google needs to get involved
in making ‘free’ Internet
content legal and
monetizable
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes
0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Was Is Soon Near Future Mid-term Future
Copy Based Revenues Attention Based Revenues
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Content 2.0: make it availableget users ‘addicted’sell everything around
and up from Content
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
What we can learn from the music industry: the focus onControl is not a profitable business model for the Future
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Kevin Kelly @ kk.org
Revenues are a Consequence of Attention
Where ever attention flows, money will
follow
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
http://flickr.com/photos/ryananderson/
Uncorking the Trust Economy
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Was Is Soon The Future
Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard)
Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXTValue of Meta-Content Value of ExperiencesValue of Packaging
Value of ‘a Copy’
Value of ContextValue of Experience
Value of Meta-ContentValue of Packaging
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
21st century content economicsinfluenced by Kevin Kelly, Chris Anderson, Don Tapscott, Yochai Benkler...
TrustImmediacy
IndividualizationPackagingSelection / Filtering
ConvenienceConversation
Gerd Leonhard Media FuturistContent Economy Trends
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2008 2009 2010 2012 2015
Percentage of Revenues from Digital Services
Music Video Games Books Mags & Print
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Filter Failure
Clay Shirky, author of "Here Comes Everybody" and professor of new media at New York University:
We suffer "not from information overload but filtering failure”
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
http://flickr.com/photos/meganmcintosh/
The Ubiquity of Content creates the increasing need for Filtering & Packaging - and in some cases,
Filters will be paid-for while the Content
may...not!
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
2009: The Redefinition of ‘Telecom’
Data Pipe
Content Pipe
Experience PlatformService Pipe
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
0
2.5
5
7.5
10
Calls SMS Data Content Services Experiences
Telecom Control LevelGoogle Opportunity
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Information > ConversationInterruption > EngagementAnnoyance > Entertainment
This is an Ad > This is Content
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
•Display ads are the past - engagement, involvement and interactivity are the future
•The currency is Personal Information & Data: getting it / buying it, renting it, borrowing it, selling it... keeping it
•The new, old deal: in exchange for value, we surrender valuable data
•The new creative mission: products and services that have advertising and marketing built-in!
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
New Data
Economy
New Content Economy
Next Generation Advertising
Some of the Players in this turf
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Hollywood’s Control Crisis is a huge
opportunity.
Source: Flickr.com/unknown
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The fight for Control was a fight for Distribution.
The flight for Attention is a fight for Trust.
The beneficiaries of Control were Monopolies.
The beneficiaries of Trust are those that Collaborate
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com Twitter.com/gleonhard [email protected]
Thanks for listening
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