The Effects of E-Verify Laws/media/... · The Effects of E-Verify Laws. Pia Orrenius. Federal...
Transcript of The Effects of E-Verify Laws/media/... · The Effects of E-Verify Laws. Pia Orrenius. Federal...
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The Effects of E-Verify Laws
Pia OrreniusFederal Reserve Bank of Dallas and IZA
andMadeline Zavodny
Agnes Scott College and IZA
Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the presenter and not those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or Federal Reserve System.
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Question
• Why have employers check employment eligibility?
• Who is required to use E-Verify?• How have unauthorized immigrants been
affected?• And what about legal immigrants and U.S.
natives?
Roadmap
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Motivation
• Unauthorized immigrant population is large• Moved into new parts of country during
1990s, 2000s• Jobs are main magnet• How to remove jobs magnet?
Motivation behind E-Verify
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Source: Pew Hispanic Center
11 million unauthorized immigrants
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Millions
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MotivationUnauthorized immigrants more dispersed in 1990s, 2000s
State Share in 1990 Share in 2014
California 42 21
Texas 13 15
Florida 7 8
New York 10 7
Illinois 6 4
New Jersey 3 5
Georgia 1 3
North Carolina 1 3
Arizona 3 3
All others 14 31
Source: DHS for 1990; Pew for 2014; totals may not add to 100% because of rounding
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Question
• 1986: IRCA made hiring unauthorized immigrants illegal; required I-9 form– “Texas proviso” before 1986
History of employment enforcement
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Question
• 1986: IRCA made hiring unauthorized immigrants illegal; required I-9 form– Lots of document fraud
Overview of enforcement history
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Question
• 1986: IRCA made hiring unauthorized immigrants illegal; required I-9 form
• 1996: IIRIRA required creation of authentication system
Overview of enforcement history
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Question
• 1986: IRCA made hiring unauthorized immigrants illegal; required I-9 form
• 1996: IIRIRA required creation of verification system
• 2003: Basic Pilot (now E-Verify) available in all states
Overview of enforcement history
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Question
• 1986: IRCA made hiring unauthorized immigrants illegal; required I-9 form
• 1996: IIRIRA required creation of authentication system; 3 variants piloted
• 2003: Basic Pilot (now E-Verify) available in all states
• 2006: Some states began requiring some or all employers to use E-Verify
Overview of enforcement history
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Question
• Employers enter info from form I-9 online• Info matched to SSA and DHS records• Tentative non-confirmation? Worker has 8
workdays to resolve• Can evade via non-compliance or identity
fraud
How E-Verify works
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1/2 new hires go through E-Verify
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
FY2002
FY2003
FY2004
FY2005
FY2006
FY2007
FY2008
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
FY2014
Source: Orrenius & Zavodny (forthcoming)
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States requiring E-Verify
No E-Verify requirementPublic sector/government contractors
All employers
Rescinded/ expired all or in part
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Universal E-Verify lawsState Adoption Implementation Comments
Arizona July 2007 January 2008
Mississippi March 2008 July 2008 Size phase in
Utah March 2010 July 2010 Only if 15+ employees
Georgia May 2011 January 2012 Size phase in; only if >10 employees
Alabama June 2011 April 2012
North Carolina June 2011 October 2012 Size phase in; only if 25+ employees
South Carolina June 2011 January 2012
Tennessee April 2016 January 2017 Only if 50+ employees
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Motivation
• Reduce population, employment of unauthorized immigrants– But % employed could rise
• Effect on hourly wages of unauthorized workers theoretically ambiguous– Both demand and supply shift
• Poverty likely to rise among unauthorized immigrant families
Expected effects of E-Verify
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Motivation
• Less competition → increased employment, higher wages
• Or, higher employer costs → lower employment, wages
What about everyone else?
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Motivation
• Traditional regression techniques– Look at population, labor market outcomes within
states before and after E-Verify law in place– Control for business cycle, demographics
• Synthetic control method– Comparison to states with similar characteristics
before E-Verify law in place (counterfactual)
How measure effects?
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Motivation
• Data limitations– Laws cause survey non-response to increase?– Compliance/enforcement varies by state– Proxy for unauthorized immigrants
• Spillover effects onto other states– People or businesses may move
• Do similar trends continue in synthetic control states?
• Exogenous laws?– Laws likely not adopted in a vacuum, but bias is
unclear
Caveats
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MotivationAlabama: Fewer unauthorized immigrants than counterfactual
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
AL synthetic AL
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MotivationArizona: Fewer unauthorized immigrants
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
AZ synthetic AZ
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MotivationGeorgia: No change in unauthorized immigrant population
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
GA synthetic GA
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MotivationMississippi: Far fewer unauthorized immigrants
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
MS synthetic MS
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MotivationNorth Carolina: No clear trend in unauthorized immigrant population
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
NC synthetic NC
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MotivationSouth Carolina: No drop in unauthorized immigrant population
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
SC synthetic SC
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MotivationUtah: Fewer unauthorized immigrants than counterfactual
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
UT synthetic UT
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MotivationBigger drop in employment than population among unauthorized
-10%
-28%
-70%
-30%
-57%
-33%
-83%
-34%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
Alabama Arizona Mississippi Utah
Population Workers
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Conclusion
• Bulk of evidence to date is at most small effects on competing legal workers
• Some evidence of higher employment among legal immigrants from Mexico
• Higher wages among less-educated, US-born Hispanic men – No effects on native, non-Hispanic white men
What about employment among legal immigrants and US natives?
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Conclusion
• E-Verify another piece of enforcement toolkit– Interior enforcement underemphasized?
• Need to better understand why incomplete compliance, different effects across states
• Harder for businesses & workers to evade than state laws– Likely larger effects, but may be mixed effects for
US natives
• Combine with a legalization program?
Implications for federal policy