THE CLOSING OF THE WESTERN FRONTIER:

A HALF CENTURY OF MIGRATION AND

REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT CHANGE

IN THE UNITED STATES

Michael J. Greenwood

University of Colorado at Boulder

“Up to our own day American history has been in a large degree the history of the colonization of the Great West. The existence of an area of free land, it continuous recession, and the advance of American settlement westward explain American development.”

Frederich Jackson Turner, 1893.

Except for the period from 1890 to 1930, the Northeast was characterized by a steadily declining share of total U.S. population. Inasmuch as the nation was settled from east to west, this declining share of population is not surprising. Since 1890 the North Central region has also experienced a steadily declining share of U.S. population. The South has, since 1870, maintained its share at slightly over 30%. (The South's share has ranged from 30.7 to 32.9% during this 100-year period.) …

continued…

… Thus, the increasing share of population held by the West has been almost solely at the expense of the Northeast and North Central regions. In the sense that the West's share of U.S. population has apparently not peaked or stabilized, but rather continues to grow steadily, it may be concluded that the western settlement of the United States has not ended.

Michael J. Greenwood, Migration and Economic Growth in the

United States,1981.

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

United States 151,326 179,323 203,302 226,546 248,718 281,422

Northeast 39,478 44,678 49,061 49,135 50,811 53,594

Midwest 44,461 51,619 56,590 58,866 59,669 64,393

South 47,197 54,973 62,813 75,372 85,454 100,237

West 20,190 28,053 34,838 43,172 52,784 63,198

Change1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-00

United States 27,997 23,889 23,244 22,172 32,704

Northeast 5,200 4,363 75 1,676 2,783

Midwest 7,158 4,953 2,275 803 4,724

South 7,776 7,822 12,559 10,082 14,783

West 7,863 6,751 8,334 9,612 10,414

TABLE 1Population of the United States and Census Regions, 1950-2000 (thousands)

77%

56%

61%

90%

89%

Notes

1. Before the 1970s, the previous historical high percentage of incremental national population accruing to the South and West was 65% during the 1930s. This percentage was 61% during the 1960s.

2. In 1980, 17 seats in the House of Representatives shifted to the South and West. The previous high since 1910 when Congress went to 435 seats was 9.

3. For the first time in U.S. history, a majority of House seats were in the South and West.

4. In the early 1980s Business Week published an issue with the title “The Second War between the States.”

Sources of Regional Population Change:

A. Immigration,

B. Natural increase, and

C. Internal migration.

TABLE 2Foreign-Born Population by Region of Residence, Selected Years (thousands)

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

United States 9,738 9,619 14,080 19,767 28,379

Northeast 4,575 4,120 4,506 5,231 6,420

Midwest 2,277 1,874 2,114 2,131 3,036

South 963 1,316 4,582 4,582 7,596

West 1,924 2,310 4,565 7,823 11,327

1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-00

United States -119 4,461 5,687 8,612

Northeast -455 386 725 1,189

Midwest -403 240 17 905

South 353 1,579 1,687 3,014

West 386 2,255 3,258 3,504

Source: Schmidley, A. Dianne, U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, Series P23-206. Profile of the Foreign Born Population in the United States: 200. U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington D.C., 2001.

Change

TABLE 3Location of Immigrants, 1980 and 1990 (thousands)

1970-80 immigrants in 1980 1980-90 immigrants in 1990

United States 5,560 8,664

Northeast 1,442 2,059

Midwest 711 754

South 1,213 2,030

West 2,195 3,821

TABLE 4Births per 1,000 Women 18 to 44 Years Old, by Census Division: June, 1982

Division Births per 1,000 Women

New England 61.5

Middle Atlantic 60.6

East North Central 73.3

West North Central 70.7

South Atlantic 67.4

East South Central 70.7

West South Central 79.6

Mountain 90.7

Pacific 70.6

UNITED STATES 70.5

Why should birth rates differ across regions?

Among other factors

A. Differing ethnic and religious concentrations (Hispanic,

Catholic, Mormon populations), and

B. The age selectivity of internal and international migration.

Table 5Percentage 20 to 44 Years of Age

Region All Persons 1970-80 Immigrants

Northeast 35.9 55.8

Midwest 36.5 58.8

South 37.0 54.9

West 39.6 56.5

Age

Education 18 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 64

1975-80

Elementary: 0 to 8 yrs. 7.81% 10.47% 7.57% 5.07% 3.88%

High School: 1 to 3 years 10.02 13.87 10.25 6.51 4.31

4 years 10.77 13.60 10.62 7.27 4.56

College: 1 to 3 years 12.40 17.53 15.36 12.76 8.44

4 years 21.83 24.56 18.76 12.89 6.95

5 years or more

28.62 32.09 24.82 16.92 9.06

1980-85

Elementary: 0 to 8 years 8.21 7.02 6.74 4.37 3.78

High School: 1 to 3 years 9.33 12.50 9.30 5.61 3.94

4 years 11.31 13.10 9.83 7.33 4.84

College: 1 to 3 years 10.12 15.67 11.60 10.75 6.84

4 years 24.13 25.32 16.54 12.97 7.19

5 years or more

29.04 32.24 21.67 14.06 7.71

TABLE 6Propensities to Migrate Interstate, 1975-1980 and 1980-1985, by Age and Education

a

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-20, No. 368, “Geographical Mobility: March 1975 to March 1980,” (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1981), Table 24 and No. 420, “Geographical Mobility: 1985,” (Washington DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1987), Table 17.

Source:

The base population is the relevant number of nonmovers over the 1975 to 1980 (1980 to 1985) period, plus put migrants. Age is defined as 1980 (1985)

a

TABLE 7In-Migration, Out-Migration, and Net-Migration for Regions:

1955-60, 1965-70, 1970-75, 1975-80, 1980-85, 1985-90, 1990-95, and 1995-2000(thousands of persons 5 and over)

Region 1955-

60 1965-

70 1970-75 1975-80 1980-85 1985-90

1990-95

1995-2000

Northeast

In-Migrants 1,044 1,273 1,057 1,106 1,218 1,604 1,162 1,537

Out-Migrants 1,683 1,988 2,399 2,596 2,240 2,720 2,478 2,808

Net-Migrants -639 -715 -1,342 -1,486 -1,022 -1,116 -1,316 -1,271

Midwest

In-Migrants 1,702 2,024 1,731 1,993 1,901 2,324 2,191 2,410

Out-Migrants 2,545 2,661 2,926 3,166 3,426 3,174 2,643 2,951

Net-Migrants -842 -637 -1,195 -1,173 -1,525 -848 -452 -541

South

In-Migrants 2,490 3,142 4,204 4,204 4,428 4,769 4,682 5,042

Out-Migrants 2,435 2,286 2,253 2,440 2,530 3,344 2,653 3,243

Net-Migrants +56 +656 +1,829 +1,764 +1,898 +1,425 +2,029 1,800

West

In-Migrants 2,488 2,309 2,347 2,838 2,641 2,827 2,269 2,666

Out-Migrants 1,062 1,613 1,639 1,945 1,992 2,289 2,530 2,654

Net-Migrants +1,426 +696 +708 +893 +649 +538 -261 +12SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-20, “Geographical Mobility,” Washington D.C.,

U.S. Government Printing Office, various years.

TABLE 7 (Cont.)In-Migration, Out-Migration, and Net-Migration, by Region, 1990-95,

1995-2000, and 2000-05

1990-95 1995-2000 2000-05

Northeast

In-migration 1,162 1,537 1,209Out-migration 2,478 2,808 2,313Net-migration -1,316 -1,271 -1,024

Midwest

In-migration 2,191 2,410 1,909 Out-migration 2,643 2,951 2,328Net-migration -452 -541 -420

South

In-migration 4,682 5,042 4,124Out-migration 2,653 3,243 2,701Net-migration +2,029 +1,800 +1,422

West

In-migration 2,269 2,666 2,294 Out-migration 2,530 2,654 2,273Net-migration -261 +12 +21

Notes

1. In 14 of 16 years prior to 1968, the South had net out-migration;

2. During the 1950s, the West was the only region to experience substantial net in-migration;

3. The South’s increase in net in-migration between 1955-60 and 1960-65 was almost entirely at the expense of the West;

4. Net out-migration from the Northeast and Midwest doubled between 1965-70 and

1970-75; net in-migration to the South tripled.

5. Net out-migration from the Northeast and Midwest nearly doubled between 1965-70 and 1970-75, but whereas the Northeast remained at about 1.2 to 1.4 million out through 2000, the Midwest fell back to about 0.5 million, so that by the late 1990s net out-migration from the Northeast was over twice that of the Midwest.

6. Net migration to the West remained positive, but started a decline during the 1980s, and then fell sharply during the 1990s, even turning negative for 1990-95.

7. During 1965-70 net migration to the South and West was about 1 to 1; during 1975-80, it was about 2 to 1 in favor of the South, and during 1980-85 it was about 3 to 1 in favor of the South. By the early 1990s, the South had net migration of over 2 million whereas the West experienced net out-migration.

RegionAbsolute Change Births Deaths Migration

Absolute Change as Percent of 1970

Pop

Natural Increase as Percent of

1970 Pop

Net Migration as Percent of 1970

Pop

Northeast 75 6,661 4,750 -2,888 0.2% 3.9% -5.9%

Midwest 22,275 9,032 5,308 -2,708 4.0 6.6 -4.8

South 12,559 11,221 6,210 5,992 20.0 8.0 9.5

West 8,334 6,330 3,010 4,115 23.9 9.5 11.8

Northeast 724 3,536 2,485 -327 1.5% 2.1% -0.7%

Midwest 331 4,845 2,743 -1,771 0.6 3.6 -3.0

South 6,486 6,612 3,561 3,436 8.6 4.1 4.6

West 4,654 4,227 1,766 2,193 10.8 5.7 5.1

TABLE 9Components of Population Change by Region, 1970-80 and 1980-85 (thousands)

Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1987 (107th edition). Washington DC, 1986, Table No. 27.

a. Note that for the 1970-1980 period absolute population change does not equal births minus deaths plus (negative) migration. The difference is the “error of closure,” or the unexplained difference between the estimated population at the end of the decade and the census count for that date.

Table 10

TABLE 11United States Age Distribution, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, and Decadal Changes (in thousands)

Age Class

1960 1970 1980 1990 20001960-1970

1970-1980

1980-1990

1990-2000

Under 5 20322 17115 16298 18354 19047 -3206 -817 2056 693

5-9 18659 20049 16655 18099 20608 1390 -3394 1444 2509

10-14 16816 20854 18285 17114 20618 4038 -2569 -1171 3504

15-19 13287 19194 21178 17754 19911 5906 1984 -3242 2157

20-24 10803 16100 21294 19020 19026 5296 5194 -2274 6

25-29 10870 13394 19471 21313 19381 2523 6078 1842 -1932

30-34 11952 11445 17710 21863 20501 -507 6265 4153 -1353

35-39 12508 11156 13972 19963 22707 -1352 2816 5991 2744

40-44 11567 11983 11665 17616 22442 416 -318 5950 4826

45-49 10929 12093 11025 13873 20902 1165 -1068 2848 6219

50-54 9697 11077 11707 11351 17586 1380 631 -357 6235

55-59 8596 10001 11651 10531 13383 1405 1650 -1120 2852

60-64 7112 8649 10135 10616 10788 1537 1486 481 172

65-74 11348 12432 15590 18107 18501 1084 3158 2516 394

75+ 5359 7669 9908 13135 16478 2310 2239 3227 3343

All ages 179825 203211 226544 248709 281879 23385 23335 22344 32369

• We see that during the 1970s and beyond the US had a very

large number of people who had matured into the young and highly mobile age cohorts. Now we need to discuss the motives for this young and mobile group to make an

interstate move.

Table 13

Relationship Between Age and Unemployment, 1981

Age Unemployment Rate

20-24 12.3%

25-34 7.3

35-44 5.0

45-55 4.2

TABLE 12Absolute Nonagricultural Employment Change and Shares of Absolute

Nonagricultural Employment Change, by Census Division

Region/Division 1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-00

Northeast 1,390.0 3,046.0 1,843.4 2,884.8 1,959.0 15.3% 8.2% 9.2% 15.0% 8.8%

Midwest 1,860.4 4,116.2 3,681.5 3,393.3 5,035.0 20.5 24.5 18.3 17.7 22.7

South 3,095.5 6,161.8 8,745.8 7,669.4 9,510.0 34.1 36.7 43.6 40.0 42.8

West 2,729.0 3,450.2 5,795.0 5,231.5 5,710.0 30.1 20.6 28.9 27.3 25.7

United States 9,074.9 16,774.2 20,065.7 19,179.0 22,218.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Absolute Employment Change(in thousands)

Shares of Absolute EmploymentChange

Refers to South and 1970-1980

∆POP = 12.5 million (from 62.8 to 75.4 million)∆EMP = 8.7 million (from 20.4 to 29.1 million)∆(E/P) = 0.07 (from 0.32 to 0.39)

Counterfactual:

1. What if the South’s E/P had remained at 0.32 in 1980?What kind of population increase would have been required to

accommodate 29.1 million jobs?2. Answer: 90.9 million people would have been required in 1980 to

accommodate 29.1 million jobs with an E/P of 0.32.3. 90.9 million would have been 15.5 million more people than the South

had in 1980.4. Where would these people have come from? Answer: migration.

a. better than 4 times as much internal migration to the South would have been required; or

b. better than 2 times as much total migration would have been required.

Conclusion:

Low E/Ps in the South served as a buffer between employment change and migration. Employment growth could be accommodated by increased LFPRs in the South that necessitated less migration than would otherwise have been required.

Note: This potential is now largely exhausted.

While the baby boom was importantly responsible for the regional population and employment shifts of the 1970-1990 period, it also provided a cushion against even greater declines in the Northeast and Midwest.

TABLE 16Total U.S. Population and Households, and Annualized Rates of Growth of Each 1950-1981

Sources:

Year Population(thousands)

Households(thousands)

Period Population Households

1981 229,807 82,368 1980-1981 0.94% 4.12%

1980 227,658 79,108 1975-1980 1.06 2.15

1975 215,973 71,120 1970-1975 1.04 2.32

1970 205,052 63,401 1965-1970 1.07 2.06

1965 194,303 57,251 1960-1965 1.47 1.63

1960 180,671 52,799 1955-1960 1.80 2.01

1955 165,275 47,788 1950-1955 1.73 1.87

1950 151,684 43,554

1965-1980 1.06 2.18

1950-1965 1.66 1.84

Population 1950-1965: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, Bicentennial Edition, Part 2 (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1975), Tables A 23-28.

Population 1970-1981: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 917. “Preliminary Estimates of the Population of the United States, by Age, Sex, and Race: 1970 to 1981” (Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1982), Table 1.

Households: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-20, No. 371. “Household and Family Characteristics: March 1981” (Washington DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1982), Table 20; also see corresponding publications No. 213 and No. 140.

Table 17

Percent Changein Population

1970-81

0.5

4.1

22.5

26.7

Percent Changein Households

1970-81

16.1

21.1

43.6

45.8

Share of HousingPermits Issued

1970-80

Northeast

Midwest

South

West

› 34%

› 66%

Household expansion due to the baby boom provided a cushion that allowed some employment growth and some investment to occur in the

Northeast and Midwest.

• What happened, especially in the South, but also in the West, to cause such dramatic changes that the regional landscape of the nation?

For the South Atlantic Division

1955-1960: 43,203 net in-migrants(25 years old andover) who werenon-nativecollege graduates

1965-1970: 93,680 net in-migrants(25 years old andover) who werenon-nativecollege graduates

Region

Absolute

Change Births Deaths InterstateImmigratio

n

Absolute Change as

Percent of Pop

Natural Increase as

Percent of Pop

Net Migration as Percent of

Pop

Northeast

64 3,585 2, 749 -1,531 1,106 1.2% 1.6% -0.8%

Midwest 1,698 4,363 3,089 -236 395 2.7 2.1 0.3

South 5,723 6,708 4,547 2,347 894 6.2 2.4 3.5

West 3,816 4,945 2,342 -580 1,718 6.6 4.5 2.0

Northeast

660 3,407 2,747 -1,333 1,119 1.3 1.3 -0.4

Midwest 1,323 4,307 3,154 -473 393 2.1 1.8 -0.1

South 5,175 6,780 4,855 2,049 885 5.3 2.0 3.0

West 4,190 5,151 2,484 -243 1,716 6.8 4.3 2.4

Northeast

5,927 21,585 15,537 -7,168 6,830 11.5 11.8 -0.7

Midwest 7,305 26,334 19,534 -3,541 2,365 11.8 11.0 -1.9

South 29,558 43,142 32,054 11,067 5,273 32.2 12.1 17.8

West 29,505 35,925 16,508 -348 10,198 51.2 33.7 17.1

TABLE 22Components of Projected Population Change by Region, 1995-2000, 2000-2005, and 1995-2025 (thousands)

Migration

1995-2000

2000-2005

1995-2025

Source: U.S Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, “Population Projections: States, 1995-2025,” P-25, No. 1131, May 1997.

Year In Out Net internal From abroad Net

1980-81 464 706 -242 207 -35

1981-82 473 685 -212 229 17

1982-83 439 625 -186 192 6

1983-84 487 578 -91 213 122

1984-85 482 691 -209 228 19

1985-86 502 752 -250 198 -52

1986-87 398 732 -334 214 -120

1987-88 430 671 -241 261 20

1988-89 370 714 -344 292 -52

1989-90 461 758 -297 328 31

1990-91 346 932 -585 209 -376

1991-92 409 701 -292 255 -37

1992-93 313 647 -334 230 -104

1993-94 348 676 -328 267 -61

1995-96 441 675 -234 285 51

1996-97 481 600 -119 239 120

1997-98 504 708 -203 247 17

1998-99 461 624 -163 198 35

1999-00 363 615 -252 292 40

2000-01 471 372 99 319 418

TABLE 24Regional Migration in the United States: 1980-2001 (in thousands)

Northeast

Year In Out Net internal From abroad Net

1980-81 650 1,056 -406 180 -226

1981-82 793 1,163 -370 134 -236

1982-83 661 947 -286 149 -137

1983-84 820 1,102 -282 141 -141

1984-85 842 1,053 -211 168 -43

1985-86 1,011 996 15 158 173

1986-87 858 969 -111 193 82

1987-88 715 818 -103 146 43

1988-89 777 703 74 170 244

1989-90 908 1,024 -116 169 53

1990-91 782 797 -15 208 193

1991-92 816 878 -62 175 113

1992-93 841 608 233 198 431

1993-94 706 737 -31 132 101

1995-96 842 775 68 130 198

1996-97 611 814 -154 169 15

1997-98 873 753 120 170 290

1998-99 735 907 -171 221 50

1999-00 722 640 82 238 320

2000-01 516 627 -111 238 127

TABLE 25Regional Migration in the United States: 1980-2001 (in thousands)

Midwest

Year In Out Net internal From abroad Net

1980-81 1,377 890 487 412 889

1981-82 1,482 1,012 470 401 871

1982-83 1,211 973 238 323 561

1983-84 1,399 973 426 383 809

1984-85 1,329 1,169 160 532 592

1985-86 1,355 1,320 35 342 477

1986-87 1,374 1,095 279 277 556

1987-88 1,338 886 452 414 866

1988-89 1,318 1,071 247 375 622

1989-90 1,428 1,198 230 500 730

1990-91 1,421 987 433 351 784

1991-92 1,305 1,081 224 838 607

1992-93 1,145 1,044 101 513 614

1993-94 1,336 960 376 451 827

1995-96 1,248 1,134 150 470 620

1996-97 1,338 947 391 445 836

1997-98 1,335 1,105 230 416 646

1998-99 1,339 1,068 271 554 815

1999-00 1,258 1,031 227 612 839

2000-01 858 860 -2 556 554

TABLE 23Regional Migration in the United States: 1980-2001 (in thousands)

South

Table 8

What are the prospects for a continuation of these powerful trends during the early 21st century?

A. Internal migration of the native born to the South and West has slowed:

1) Due to the aging of the baby-boom cohort, the pool of

potential internal migrants has fallen considerably.

B. Employment growth differentials that favored the South and West

may not remain as strong as in the past:

1) The pool of potential internal migrants to accommodate the

differential growth rates will not be available.

2) The differential pool of labor force entrants from the

indigenous population, which strongly favored the South, is

largely exhausted. (E/P)

3) However, immigration is a positive force in maintaining the

employment growth differentials as long as the newcomers

continue to locate in these regions.

TABLE 10Age-Specific Population Projections for the United States, 2000-2020

Age Class 2000 2010 2020 2000 2010 2020

Under 5 18,987 20,012 21,979 633 1,025 1,967

5-9 19,920 19,489 21,548 1,821 -431 2,059

10-14 20,057 20,231 21,334 2,943 174 1,103

15-19 19,820 21,782 21,364 2,066 1,962 -418

20-24 18,257 21,134 21,298 -763 2,877 164

25-29 17,722 19,710 21,569 -3,591 1,988 1,859

30-34 19,611 18,582 21,365 -2,252 -1,029 2,783

35-39 22,180 18,536 21,534 2,217 -3,644 1,998

40-44 22,479 19,985 19,078 4,863 -2,494 -907

45-49 19,806 21,884 18,378 5,933 2,078 -3,508

50-54 17,224 21,680 19,363 5,873 4,456 -2,317

55-59 13,307 19,088 21,165 2,776 5,781 2,077

60-64 10,654 16,215 20,549 38 5,561 4,334

65-74 18,136 21,057 31,385 1,029 2,921 10,328

75- 16,573 18,351 21,835 3,438 1,778 3,484

All ages 274,634 297,716 322,742 25,924 23,082 25,026

change

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, “Population Projections of the United States by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1995-2050,” P25-1130, Table 2

According to Randell Filer (1991), the location of immigrants in the U.S.

significantly discourages in-migration to the areas of immigrant

settlement, but native out-migration from such areas is only marginally

affected: “An increase of one-percent in the fraction of an SMSAs labor

force who arrived in the U.S. between 1975 and 1980 results in a

decrease in net native migration into that labor market equal to about 1.25

percent of its work force.”

Filer further argues that the impacts are biggest on native whites with less

skill and lower education, who avoid such places.

What Does the Future Hold?

U.S. interregional migration:

5-year flow Sum of 1-year flows

1955-60 7.7 million (4.3%)

1965-70 8.7 million (4.3%) 18.0 million

1970-75 9.2 million —

1975-80 10.1 million (4.5%) —

1980-85 10.2 million 17.4 million

1985-90 11.5 million (4.6%) 17.4 million

1990-95 10.3 million —

1995-00 11.7 million (4.2%) 16.3 million

2008-09 U.S. Interregional Migration Flows, in thousands

To FromNE MW S W Total Int.Abroad Total

NE --- 52 178 67 297 52 349

MW 56 --- 385 192 633 139 772

S 284 346 --- 315 945 543 1,488

W 112 237 247 --- 596 353 949

Total 452 635 810 574 2,471 1,087 3,558

Abroad ? ? ? ? ?

NE

MW

S

W

Net Internal Out-Migration

452 - 297 = 155

635 - 633 = 2

810 - 945 = -135

574 - 596 = -22

To: 31 + 25 + 31 = 87

From: 6 + 9 + 22 = 37

Net migration of the foreign born = +50

2008-09 Migration To and From the West Census Region

U.S. Natives

To: 80 + 212 + 216 = 508

From: 61 + 183 + 294 = 538

Net migration of natives = -30

Foreign Born