The Chesapeake Bay Program’s Decision Support Tools

Gary Shenk

5/21/2013

2

Chesapeake Bay Partnership Models

Bay WQSTM

NEIEN

Interaction Tools

Decision Models/ Databases

Related Tools sparrow

2010 2020 2030

Prince George’s County

Anne Arundel County

6

Estuarine Model

• 57,000 cells • sub-hour hydrodynamics

•CH3D •CEQUAL-ICM

Water Quality Model State Variables Temperature

Salinity

Fixed Solids

Freshwater Cyanobacteria

Spring Diatoms

Other (Green) Algae

Microzooplankton

Mesozooplankton

Dissolved Organic Carbon

Labile Particulate Organic Carbon

Refractory Particulate Organic Carbon

Ammonium

Nitrate+Nitrite

Dissolved Organic Nitrogen

Labile Particulate Organic Nitrogen

Refractory Particulate Organic Nitrogen

Total Phosphate

Dissolved Organic Phosphorus

Labile Particulate Organic Phosphorus

Refractory Particulate Organic Phosphorus

Chemical Oxygen Demand

Dissolved Oxygen

Dissolved Silica

Particulate Biogenic Silica

Living Resources Outputs SAV Oysters Menhaden

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8

Estuarine Model

Decision variables Dissolved Oxygen Clarity Submerged Aquatic Vegetation Chlorophyll concentrations

Role of the Bay Partnership Models In Decision-Making

Annual, monthly or daily values of anthropogenic factors: Land use acres BMP implementation Fertilizer Application Rates Manure Application Rates Maximum Uptake Vegetative Cover AFO-CAFO and Septic Loads

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Annual, monthly, or daily values of anthropogenic factors: Land Use Acreage BMPs Fertilizer Manure Tillage Crop types Atmospheric deposition Waste water treatment Septic loads

Hourly or daily values of Meteorological factors: Precipitation Temperature Evapotranspiration Wind Solar Radiation Dew point Cloud Cover

Daily flow, nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment compared to observations over 21 years

How the Watershed Model Works

HSPF

Calibration Mode

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Each segment consists of 30 separately-modeled land uses:

• Regulated Pervious Urban • Regulated Impervious Urban • Unregulated Pervious Urban • Unregulated Impervious Urban • Construction • Extractive • Combined Sewer System • Wooded / Open • Disturbed Forest

• Corn/Soy/Wheat rotation (high till)

• Corn/Soy/Wheat rotation (low till)

• Other Row Crops • Alfalfa • Nursery • Pasture • Degraded Riparian Pasture • Afo / Cafo • Fertilized Hay • Unfertilized Hay

– Nutrient management versions of the above

Plus: Point Source and Septic Loads, and

Atmospheric Deposition Loads Each calibrated to nutrient and

Sediment targets

How the Watershed Model Works

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Precipitation Fertilizer Manure Atmospheric deposition

Runoff

How the Watershed Model Works

Hydrology submodel

Management filter

River Sediment submodel Phosphorus

submodel

Nitrogen submodel

hourly Buffers wetlands

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ELK

TIOGA

ONEIDA

YORK

KENT

STEUBEN

SUSSEX

HERKIMER

POTTER

DELAWARE

BERKS

OTSEGO

MCKEAN

ACCOMACK

INDIANA

WAYNE

HALIFAX

ALLEGANY

SOMERSET

LEE

CLEARFIELD

CAYUGA

BLAIR

LUZERNE

BRADFORD

CENTRE

LANCASTER

PERRY

BROOME

CHESTER

CHENANGO

SURRY

CAMBRIA

ST MARYS

CLINTON

ONTARIO MADISON

CECIL

DORCHESTER

LOUISA

PITTSYLVANIA

ONONDAGA

GARRETT

CHARLES

WISE

SCOTT

PRESTON

HUNTINGDON

LYCOMING

BEDFORD

SCHUYLKILL

GUILFORD

FRANKLIN

TALBOT

WYTHE

BALTIMORE

FAUQUIER

FLOYDSMYTH

YATES

HENRY

STOKES

AUGUSTA

JEFFERSON

BATH

HARDY

FULTON

HAMPSHIRE

BLAND

ALBEMARLE

SUSQUEHANNA

ADAMS

MIFFLIN

HARFORD

MONROE

WORCESTER

LIVINGSTON

CAROLINE

SCHOHAR

CRAIG

LOUDOUNTUCKER

NORTHAMPTON

WARREN

AMELIA

FAIRFAX

PERSON

HANOVER

CARROLL

GRANVILLE

CAMPBELL

JUNIATA

TOMPKINS

COLUMBIA

DINWIDDIE

SULLIVAN

SUFFOLK

ORANGE

MCDOWELL

BRUNSWICK

CORTLAND

CARBON

BUCHANAN

ASHE

NELSON

CASWELL

MECKLENBURGPATRICK

FORSYTH

BUCKINGHAM

ESSEX

ROCKINGHAM

RUSSELL

DAUPHIN

TAZEWELL

GRANT

SNYDER

CHEMUNG

ALAMANCE

CHARLOTTE

PULASKI

BOTETOURT

VANCE

CAMERON

SOUTHAMPTON

ROCKBRIDGEALLEGHANY

WASHINGTON

LEBANON

AMHERST

NEW CASTLE

ANNE ARUNDEL

CALVERT

WICOMICO

FREDERICK

CULPEPER

QUEEN ANNES

LUNENBURG

MONTGOMERY

PAGE

LACKAWANNA

SCHUYLER

JOHNSON

WATAUGA

BERKELEY

VIRGINIA BEACH

CUMBERLAND

WYOMING

PENDLETON

CHESTERFIELD

DICKENSON

UNION

HOWARD

PRINCE GEORGES

FLUVANNA

NOTTOWAY

SPOTSYLVANIA

HENRICO

GRAYSON

STAFFORD

CHESAPEAKE

MORGAN

HIGHLAND

SHENANDOAH

MATHEWS

NORTHUMBERLAND

GILES

APPOMATTOX

ISLE OF WIGHT

GOOCHLAND

POWHATAN

CLARKE

PRINCE WILLIAM

GREENSVILLE

MINERAL

NEW KENT GLOUCESTER

KING WILLIAM

PRINCE EDWARD

RICHMOND

KING AND QUEENMIDDLESEX

ROANOKE

PRINCE GEORGE

JAMES CITY

WESTMORELAND

CHARLES CITY

KING GEORGE

HAMPTON

MONTOUR

NORFOLK

RAPPAHANNOCK

GREENE

NEWPORT NEWSPOQUOSON

BOTETOURT

DANVILLE

LYNCHBURG

DIST OF COLUMBIA

PORTSMOUTHBRISTOL

HARRISONBURG

RADFORD

WAYNESBORO

HOPEWELL

MANASSAS

NORTON

EMPORIA

FREDERICKSBURG

WILLIAMSBURG

BUENA VISTA

SOUTH BOSTON

ARLINGTON

SALEM

STAUNTON

PETERSBURG

GALAX

ALEXANDRIA

MARTINSVILLE

WINCHESTER

CHARLOTTESVILLE

FAIRFAX CITY

COLONIAL HEIGHTS

COVINGTON LEXINGTONCLIFTON FORGE

FALLS CHURCH

MANASSAS PARK

ELK

TIOGA

ONEIDA

YORK

KENT

STEUBEN

SUSSEX

HERKIMER

POTTER

DELAWARE

BERKS

OTSEGO

MCKEAN

ACCOMACK

INDIANA

WAYNE

HALIFAX

ALLEGANY

SOMERSET

LEE

CLEARFIELD

CAYUGA

BLAIR

LUZERNE

BRADFORD

CENTRE

TIOGA

LANCASTER

PERRY

BROOME

CHESTER

CHENANGO

KENT

SURRY

CAMBRIA

ST MARYS

CLINTON

ONTARIO MADISON

CECIL

DORCHESTER

LOUISA

PITTSYLVANIA

ONONDAGA

GARRETT

CHARLES

WISE

SCOTT

PRESTON

HUNTINGDON

LYCOMING

BEDFORD

SCHUYLKILL

GUILFORD

FRANKLIN

TALBOT

SUSSEX

WYTHE

BALTIMORE

FAUQUIER

FLOYDSMYTH

YATES

HENRY

STOKES

AUGUSTA

JEFFERSON

BATH

HARDY

FULTON

SOMERSET

HAMPSHIRE

BLAND

ALBEMARLE

SUSQUEHANNA

ADAMS

MIFFLIN

HARFORD

MONROE

WORCESTER

LIVINGSTON

CAROLINE

SCHOHAR

CRAIG

LOUDOUN

LYCOMING

TUCKER

NORTHAMPTON

CENTRE

WARREN

AMELIA

FAIRFAX

FRANKLIN

PERSON

HANOVER

CARROLL

GRANVILLE

CAMPBELL

CARROLL

JUNIATA

TOMPKINS

COLUMBIA

DINWIDDIE

SULLIVAN

SUFFOLK

ORANGE

MCDOWELL

BRUNSWICK

BEDFORD

CORTLAND

BATH

CARBON

BUCHANAN

ASHE

SULLIVAN

NELSON

SURRY

CASWELL

MECKLENBURGPATRICK

FORSYTH

BUCKINGHAM

ESSEX

ROCKINGHAM

RUSSELL

DAUPHIN

TAZEWELL

GRANT

SNYDER

CHEMUNG

ALAMANCE

ORANGE

CHARLOTTE

PULASKI

BOTETOURT

VANCE

CAMERON

SOUTHAMPTON

ROCKBRIDGE

YORK

ALLEGHANY

WASHINGTON

LEBANON

AMHERST

NEW CASTLE

ANNE ARUNDEL

CALVERT

WICOMICO

FREDERICK

AUGUSTA

FREDERICK

ROCKINGHAM CULPEPER

NORTHAMPTON

QUEEN ANNES

LUNENBURG

MONTGOMERY

PAGE

ASHE

WASHINGTON

LACKAWANNA

SCHUYLER

CAROLINE

JOHNSON

WATAUGA

BERKELEY

VIRGINIA BEACH

CUMBERLAND

FRANKLIN

BEDFORD

CLINTON

BEDFORD

WYOMING

PENDLETON

CHESTERFIELD

HARDYGRANT

DICKENSON

PENDLETON

UNION

HOWARD

PRINCE GEORGES

FLUVANNA

NOTTOWAY

SPOTSYLVANIA

MONTGOMERY

HENRICO

GRAYSON

STAFFORD

CHESAPEAKE

MORGAN

HIGHLAND

SHENANDOAH

MATHEWS

NORTHUMBERLAND

GILES

APPOMATTOX

ISLE OF WIGHT

ALLEGANY

MADISON

PAGE

GOOCHLAND

ROCKINGHAM

POWHATAN

CLARKE

LEE

PRINCE WILLIAM

GREENSVILLE

FREDERICK

CUMBERLAND

GILES

DAUPHIN

MINERAL

NEW KENT

UNION

GLOUCESTER

KING WILLIAM

PRINCE EDWARD

ADAMS

RICHMOND

LANCASTERKING AND QUEEN

GRAYSON

MIDDLESEX

JEFFERSON

ROANOKE

ALLEGANY

PRINCE GEORGE

BRADFORD

GILES

MINERAL

HIGHLAND

JAMES CITY

ALLEGHANY

WESTMORELAND

BEDFORD

NORTHUMBERLAND

CHARLES CITY

WARREN

NELSON

KING GEORGE

HAMPTON

MONTOUR

SCOTT

PATRICK

MADISON

SHENANDOAH

RUSSELL

AMHERST

WYOMING

NORFOLK

AUGUSTA

RAPPAHANNOCK

GREENE

WARREN

LUZERNE

CUMBERLAND

FRANKLIN

TAZEWELL

SMYTH

GREENE

BALTIMORE

SCOTT

ALBEMARLE

ROANOKE

NEWPORT NEWSPOQUOSON

RICHMOND

RAPPAHANNOCK

BOTETOURT

ALLEGHANY

DANVILLE

FAUQUIER

ROANOKE

LYNCHBURG

WYTHE

CARROLL

DIST OF COLUMBIA

PORTSMOUTHWASHINGTON

PETERSBURG

BRISTOL

RADFORD

WAYNESBORO

HOPEWELL

MANASSAS

EMPORIA

BEDFORD

FREDERICKSBURG

WILLIAMSBURG

SOUTH BOSTON

CHESTER

ROCKBRIDGE

ROCKINGHAM

ARLINGTON

SALEM

STAUNTON

GALAX

ALEXANDRIA

HARRISONBURG

NORTON

FRANKLIN

MARTINSVILLE

WINCHESTER

CHARLOTTESVILLE

BUENA VISTA

FAIRFAX CITY

COLONIAL HEIGHTS

COVINGTON LEXINGTONCLIFTON FORGE

FALLS CHURCH

MANASSAS PARK

Phase 5 land segmentation

• Most counties are completely within a hydrogeomorphic region

• BMP and Crop data are not known on a finer scale in most cases

• Near the limit of computing capacity

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Phase 5 River Segmentation

• Greater than 100 cfs or

• Has a flow gage • Near the limit of

meaningful data

• Consistent criterion

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Snapshot of anthropogenic factors: Land Use Acreage BMPs Fertilizer Manure Tillage Crop types Atmospheric deposition Waste water treatment Septic loads

Hourly or daily values of Meteorological factors: Precipitation Temperature Evapotranspiration Wind Solar Radiation Dew point Cloud Cover

Flow-normalized loads

How the Watershed Model Works

HSPF

Scenario Mode

Nitrogen Loads to the Chesapeake Bay 2012 Estimated

Agriculture -Manure

15%

Agriculture -Chemical Fertilizer

19%

Agriculture -Legume Fixation

5%

Atmospheric Deposition -livestock &

fertilized soil emissions,

mobile+utility+industry

33%

Urban / Suburban -Fertilizer

8%

Wastewater17%

Septic3%

Source: CBP Phase 5.3.2 Watershed Model data and simulation for 2012 assessment including jurisdictional supplied inputs

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50

100

150

200

250

300

350

40019

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CBP Watershed Model Phase 5.3.2 Nitrogen Million lb per year (not official progress runs)

PA

VA

MD

NY

WV

DC

DE

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Nutrient Impacts on Bay WQ

Scenario Builder

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Livestock

Manure storage practice

Pasture Fertilizer

Crops

Image Credits https://utextension.tennessee.edu/lincoln/4-H/Pages/Livestock-Skillathons-%28Beef,-Sheep-and-Swine%29.aspx Rebelwoodsranch.com Seaburst.com http://pubs.ext.vt.edu/442/442-308/442-308.html

BMPs

BMPs

BMPs

BMPs

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Scenario Builder

Scenario Builder

• Input processor for the Watershed Model

• Generates past, present or future state of watershed conditions

• Specific WSM Inputs from Scenario Builder:

o Management practices o Land use acres o Manure and chemical

fertilizer application rates o Crop growth o Septic loads

Spatial Scale

County scale source data and calculations. To output at a finer scale, Scenario Builder uses an area-weighted average.

Scenario Builder Ag Data Output

• BMPs – Acres – Pounds nitrogen, phosphorus and sediment reduced

• Manure application (nutrient species/month) • Fertilizer application (month) • Legumes (pounds ammonium) • Maximum Crop uptake (monthly nutrients) • Vegetative cover • Sediment generated by plowing • Land use acreage

Scenario Builder

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Ag Census Crops

Land Change Model Land Use

Conservation Practices

BMPs

Breakout 1

Breakout 2

Breakout 3

Ag Census Crops Regional Crop data Max uptake

Vegetative cover

Plowing Effects

Leguminous Fixation

Crop Need

Ag Census Animals

Manure application Regional management data

Fertilizer application