Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

30
Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia: History and Management Response Rich Batiuk Associate Director for Science Chesapeake Bay Program Office U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Rob Magnien NOAA Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research

description

Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:. History and Management Response. Rich Batiuk Associate Director for Science Chesapeake Bay Program Office U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Rob Magnien NOAA Center for Sponsored Coastal Ocean Research. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

Page 1: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:History and Management Response

Rich BatiukAssociate Director for Science

Chesapeake Bay Program OfficeU.S. Environmental Protection

Agency

Rob MagnienNOAA Center for Sponsored

Coastal Ocean Research

Page 2: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:
Page 3: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:
Page 4: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

1949-1950

1957-1950

1960-1963

1967-1968

1972 1978-1980

June 1984-December 20031952

Chesapeake Bay Summer Anoxic/Hypoxic Volumes and Winter-Spring Flow: 1949-2003

Source: www.chesapeakebay.net

Page 5: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

Source: Hagy et al. 2004

Calculated Summer

Anoxic/Hypoxic Volumes and

Model Predictions: 1950-

2001

Page 6: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

Summer dissolved oxygen profiles in Chesapeake Bay:

Four years with near average January–May

SusquehannaRiver flow

Source: Hagy et al. 2004

Extent of Anoxic Conditions

Page 7: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

January

February

March

April

May

Early June

Late June

Early July

Late July

Early August

Late August

September

October

November

December

A Year in Chesapeake Bay Dissolved Oxygen: 2004

Page 8: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

2006 Summer Chesapeake Bay Dissolved Oxygen

Page 9: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

30,0

00,0

00

40,0

00,0

00

50,0

00,0

00

60,0

00,0

00

70,0

00,0

00

80,0

00,0

00

90,0

00,0

00

100,

000,

000

Algal Index

Anoxi

c V

olu

me,

km

3

_

2002

1993

2005

2006 Chesapeake Bay Mainstem Anoxic Volume Forecast

Red zone indicates forecast area

Forecast Volume

Observed Volume

95% Confidence Interval

Source: www.chesapeakebay.net/bayforecastspring2006.htm

Algal index = spring Susq. TN, TP + N. Bay PS TN, TP

Page 10: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

Impaired Water

Over 90% of the Bay and its tidal rivers are impaired due to low dissolved oxygen levels and poor water clarity, all related to nutrient and sediment pollution.

Source: U.S. EPA

Page 11: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

Partners Commitment to Restored Bay Water Quality

“By 2010, correct the nutrient‑ and sediment‑related problems in the Chesapeake Bay and its tidal tributaries...”

Step 1: What is the water quality of a restored Bay?

Step 2: How much pollution do we need to reduce?

Step 3: What actions do we need to take to reduce pollution?

Source: Chesapeake Executive Council 2000

Page 12: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

What Do We Want to Achieve?

Water quality that supports abundant fish,

crabs, oysters and underwater grasses in

the Bay and its rivers. Source: Chesapeake Executive Council 2000

Page 13: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

Water Quality in a Restored Bay

• Fewer algae blooms and better fish food.• Clearer water and more underwater Bay grasses.• More oxygen and improved habitat for more fish,

crabs and oysters.

Source: U.S. EPA 2003a

Page 14: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

A. Cross Section of Chesapeake Bay or Tidal Tributary

B. Oblique View of the “Chesapeake Bay” and its Tidal Tributaries

Shallow-WaterBay Grass Use Open-Water

Fish and Shellfish UseDeep-Water

Seasonal Fish andShellfish Use

Deep-ChannelSeasonal Refuge Use

Open-WaterHabitat

Migratory FishSpawning andNursery Use

Refined Designated Uses forthe Bay and Tidal Tributary Waters

Shallow-WaterBay Grass Use

Deep-WaterSeasonal Fish and

Shellfish Use Deep-Channel Seasonal Refuge Use

Source: U.S. EPA 2003b

Page 15: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

Bay Dissolved Oxygen Criteria

Minimum Amount of Oxygen (mg/L) Needed to Survive by Species

Migratory Fish Spawning & Nursery

Areas

Hard Clams: 5

Striped Bass: 5-6

Worms: 1

Shallow and Open Water Areas

Deep Water

Deep Channel

6

5

3

2

1

4

0

Crabs: 3

Spot: 2

White Perch: 5

American Shad: 5

Yellow Perch: 5

Alewife: 3.6

Bay Anchovy: 3

Source: U.S. EPA 2003a

Page 16: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

Chesapeake Bay Dissolved Oxygen CriteriaDesignated Use Criteria Concentration/Duration Protection Provided Temporal

Application

 Migratory fish spawning and nursery use

 

7-day mean > 6 mg liter-1

(tidal habitats with 0-0.5 ppt salinity)Survival/growth of larval/juvenile tidal-fresh resident fish.; protective of threatened/endangered species.

 February 1 - May 31

 Instantaneous minimum > 5 mg liter-1 Survival and growth of larval/juvenile

migratory fish; protective of threatened/endangered species.

Open-water fish and shellfish designated use criteria apply June 1 - January 31

Shallow-water bay grass use

Open-water fish and shellfish designated use criteria apply Year-round

  Open-water fish and shellfish use 

 

30-day mean > 5.5 mg liter-1

(tidal habitats with 0-0.5 ppt salinity)Growth of tidal-fresh juvenile and adult fish; protective of threatened/endangered species.

  

Year-round

30-day mean > 5 mg liter-1

(tidal habitats with >0.5 ppt salinity)Growth of larval, juvenile and adult fish and shellfish; protective of threatened/endangered species.

7-day mean > 4 mg liter-1 Survival of open-water fish larvae.

Instantaneous minimum > 3.2 mg liter-1 Survival of threatened/endangered sturgeon species.1

 Deep-water seasonal fish and shellfish use

30-day mean > 3 mg liter-1 Survival and recruitment of bay anchovy eggs and larvae.

 June 1 - September 30

1-day mean > 2.3 mg liter-1 Survival of open-water juvenile and adult fish.

Instantaneous minimum > 1.7 mg liter-1 Survival of bay anchovy eggs and larvae.

Open-water fish and shellfish designated-use criteria apply October 1 - May 31

 Deep-channel seasonal

refuge use

Instantaneous minimum > 1 mg liter-1 Survival of bottom-dwelling worms and clams. June 1 - September 30

Open-water fish and shellfish designated use criteria apply October 1 - May 31

1 At temperatures considered stressful to shortnose sturgeon (>29C), dissolved oxygen concentrations above an instantaneous minimum of 4.3 mg liter -1 will protect survival of this listed sturgeon species.

Page 17: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

Dissolved Oxygen Criteria TeamRichard Batiuk, U.S. EPA Chesapeake Bay Program Office; Denise Breitburg, Academy ofNatural Sciences; Arthur Butt, Virginia Department of Environmental Quality; Thomas Cronin,U.S. Geological Survey; Ifeyinwa Davis, U.S. EPA Office of Water; Robert Diaz, VirginiaInstitute of Marine Science; Frederick Hoffman, Virginia Department of Environmental Quality;Steve Jordan, Maryland Department of Natural Resources; James Keating, U.S. EPA Office ofWater; Marcia Olson, NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office; James Pletl, Hampton Roads SanitationDistrict; David Secor, University of Maryland Chesapeake Biological Laboratory; Glen Thursby,U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development; and Erik Winchester, U.S. EPA Office ofResearch and Development.

Scientists from across the country, well-recognized for their work in the area of low dissolvedoxygen effects on individual species up to ecosystem trophic dynamics, contributed their time,expertise, publications and preliminary data and findings to support the derivation of ChesapeakeBay-specific criteria: Steve Brandt, NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory;Walter Boynton, University of Maryland Chesapeake Biological Laboratory; Ed Chesney,Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium; Larry Crowder, Duke University Marine Laboratory;Peter deFur, Virginia Commonwealth University; Ed Houde, University of Maryland ChesapeakeBiological Laboratory; Julie Keister, Oregon State University; Nancy Marcus, Florida StateUniversity; John Miller, North Carolina State University; Ken Paynter, University of Maryland;Sherry Poucher, SAIC; Nancy Rabalais, Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium; Jim Rice,North Carolina State University; Mike Roman, University of Maryland Horn Point Laboratory; Linda Schaffner, Virginia Institute of Marine Science; Dave Simpson, Connecticut Departmentof Environmental Protection; and Tim Target, University of Delaware.

Page 18: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

Scientific Basis for Decisions was Documented by the Partners

Page 19: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

Bay Criteria, Uses Adopted in State WQS

Regulations• DE (2004), MD (2005),

VA 2005/2006), DC (2006)

• Standards adopted in terms of designated use by CBP segment

• WQ criteria, uses, attainment assessment methods essentially fully consistent across jurisdictions

Page 20: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

Chesapeake Bay Program Models

Chesapeake Bay Watershed Model

Chesapeake Bay Airshed Model

Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Model

SAV/Light Model

Hydrodynamic Model

Sediment Transport Model

Benthic Infauna Model

Zooplankton Model

Oyster Filter Feeders Model

Sediment Process Model

Phytoplankton Model

Page 21: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

Chesapeake Bay ProgramCurrent Modeling Structure

Airshed Model Watershed Model Estuary Model

Page 22: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

Nutrient Loadings vs. Dissolved Oxygen Criteria Attainment

% Dissolved OxygenCriteria Attainment

Millions of pounds per year

nitrogen phosphorus

337

285

175

26.5 19.1 12.8

Page 23: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

Nutrient pollution

loads have differing

impacts on the Bay water

quality, depending on

where they come from.

Page 24: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

WatershedStates

Responsibility

Allocating Responsibility for Reducing Nutrients and Sediments

By 9 major river basins

...then by 20 major tributary basins by

jurisdiction

…then by 44 state-defined tributary

strategy subbasins

WatershedPartners

Responsibility

WatershedStates

Responsibility

Page 25: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

Nitrogen Allocation Phosphorus Allocation Upland Sediment Allocation Basin/Jurisdiction (million pounds/year) (million pounds/year) (million tons/year)

SUSQUEHANNA PA 67.58 1.90 0.793 NY 12.58 0.59 0.131 MD 0.83 0.03 0.037

SUSQUEHANNA Total 80.99 2.52 0.962 EASTERN SHORE - MD

MD 10.89 0.81 0.116 DE 2.88 0.30 0.042 PA 0.27 0.03 0.004 VA 0.06 0.01 0.001

EASTERN SHORE - MD Total 14.10 1.14 0.163 WESTERN SHORE

MD 11.27 0.84 0.100 PA 0.02 0.00 0.001

WESTERN SHORE Total 11.29 0.84 0.100 PATUXENT

MD 2.46 0.21 0.095 PATUXENT Total 2.46 0.21 0.095

POTOMAC VA 12.84 1.40 0.617 MD 11.81 1.04 0.364 WV 4.71 0.36 0.311 PA 4.02 0.33 0.197 DC 2.40 0.34 0.006

POTOMAC Total 35.78 3.48 1.494 RAPPAHANNOCK

VA 5.24 0.62 0.288 RAPPAHANNOCK Total 5.24 0.62 0.288

YORK VA 5.70 0.48 0.103

YORK Total 5.70 0.48 0.103 JAMES

VA 26.40 3.41 0.925 WV 0.03 0.01 0.010

JAMES Total 26.43 3.42 0.935 EASTERN SHORE - VA

VA 1.16 0.08 0.008 EASTERN SHORE - VA Total 1.16 0.08 0.008

SUBTOTAL 183 12.8 4.15 CLEAR SKIES REDUCTION -8

BASIN-WIDE TOTAL 175 12.8 4.15

Nutrient and Sediment Cap Load Allocations

-Science-based

-Equitable

- Based on pollution contribution to Bay/river water quality

-Adopted by the six watershed states’ Governors, the DC Mayor and EPA Adminstrator in 2003

Page 26: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

• Unprecedented multi-state permitting agreement

• Annual load limits vs. monthly conc. limits

• Watershed-based permitting

• Addresses complex compliance schedule issues

• Addresses monitoring requirements and reporting schedules

Basinwide Permitting Approach

Page 27: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:
Page 28: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

Nitrate and ammonia deposition from improved Daily Nitrate and Ammonium

Concentration Models using 35 monitoring stations over 18 simulation

years.Adjustments to deposition from

Models-3/Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modeling System

Phase 5 Watershed ModelYear-to-year changes in land use and BMPs; 899 segments; 24 land uses; 296 calibration stations; 21

simulation years; sophisticated calibration procedures; calibration demonstrably better in quality and

scale

Chesapeake Bay Estuary Model Detailed sediment input; Wave model for resuspension, Full

sediment transport; Filter feeder simulation; Simulation of Potomac algal blooms; 54,000

model cells; 18 simulation years

The Forthcoming Next Generation of Bay Models

Page 29: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

Less Than Third of the Bay Has Enough Oxygen

Page 30: Chesapeake Bay Hypoxia:

Rich Batiuk

Associate Director for Science

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Chesapeake Bay Program

Office

410-267-5731

[email protected]

www.chesapeakebay.net