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© PA Knowledge Limited 20151
THE CHANGING HIGHER EDUCATION LANDSCAPE
University Alliance Annual Summit
Paul WoodgatesPA Consulting Group
June 2015
© PA Knowledge Limited 20153
“Universities won’t survive. 30 years from now, university campuses will be relics.”
Peter Drucker, 1996
“There’s a tsunami coming for higher education…”
President of Stanford, 2012
“In 50 years there will be only 10 higher education institutions in the world”
Sebastian Thrun, Udacity, 2013
© PA Knowledge Limited 20154
“…an avalanche of change [could] sweep away the HE system…”
Sir Michael Barber /IPPR, 2014
“Some universities are going to close…”
John Cridland, CBI, 2014
“Substantial numbers of institutional failures are highly or quite likely”
40%+ of VCs responding to PA Annual Surveys, 2010-14
© PA Knowledge Limited 201512
UA Members
Su
rplu
s a
s a
% o
f Tu
rno
ve
r 2
01
3/1
4(A
vera
ge
for
En
glis
h &
Wel
sh H
EIs
= 3
.9%
)
% Change in HE Students 2011/12 - 2013/14(Average for English & Welsh HEIs = -6.6%)
-40% -35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Universities in England and Wales
Comparison of the change in student numbers 11/12-13/14 with surplus as a % of turnover 13/14 for English and Welsh HEIs
Mean
© PA Knowledge Limited 201514
Str
ateg
ic F
ocu
s
Co
nso
lidat
eE
xte
nd
Ex
plo
re
Balance ofStrengths/Weaknesses
MixedPositive Vulnerable
OLIGARCHS
ZOMBIES
© PA Knowledge Limited 201516
Str
ateg
ic F
ocu
s
Co
nso
lidat
eE
xte
nd
Ex
plo
re
Balance ofStrengths/Weaknesses
MixedPositive Vulnerable
OLIGARCHS
ZOMBIES
INNOVATORS
COASTERS
© PA Knowledge Limited 201517
How innovative are we?
% of vice-chancellors rating their institution against seven themes of HE innovation
Unbundling of Service Provision
Student Data Analytics
Technology-Enhanced Learning
Mobility between Providers
Integration with Practice
Flexible Study Modes
Curriculum Reforms
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Sector leading Making progress Limited progress Not a priority
© PA Knowledge Limited 201519
paconsulting.com/education
Paul Woodgates, Head of Services to the Education [email protected] +44 207 881 3597