The Atlanta Region’s Plan Update How Changing Demographics … · 2019-08-27 · e + ARC Board...
68
regional impact + local relevance + ARC Board Meeting 1 August 28, 2019 Atlanta, GA The Atlanta Region’s Plan Update How Changing Demographics Will Impact Metropolitan Atlanta Mike Alexander, AICP Director, Center for Livable Communities Atlanta Regional Commission [email protected]
Transcript of The Atlanta Region’s Plan Update How Changing Demographics … · 2019-08-27 · e + ARC Board...
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ARC Board Meeting
1August 28, 2019 Atlanta, GA
The Atlanta Region’s Plan Update
How Changing Demographics Will Impact Metropolitan Atlanta
Mike Alexander, AICPDirector, Center for Livable Communities Atlanta Regional [email protected]
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From McKinsey
The past 50 years were truly unusual in demographic terms, as
large cohorts of working-age populations fueled the growth of
cities and nations. In the new demographic era, we are likely to
see a much more fragmented urban landscape, with pockets of
robust expansion but also areas of stagnant and declining
populations. Cities’ growth prospects will reflect very different
demographic footprints and dynamics shaped by their local
birth and death rates, net domestic migration, and net
international migration.
https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/urbanization/urban-world-meeting-the-demographic-challenge-in-cities/de-de
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The Numbers keeps Getting Smaller
432011
403697
250000
270000
290000
310000
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2000 2012 2014 2017
US Census Bureau Projections for Total US Population by year released (In Thousands)
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Videow
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.gap
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.org 218 Years of World History in 60 Seconds VIDEO
Color Code (World Regions)
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1.85
1.78
1.87 1.87
1.791.75 1.75
1.721.66
2.55
2.19 2.18
2.031.97
1.88 1.86 1.83 1.82
2.00
1.80
1.89
1.78
1.69 1.681.65
1.69
1.60
2.96
2.802.73
2.79
2.35
2.152.12 2.09
2.01
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2015 2016 2017
US Fertility
White N.H. Black N.H. Asian Hispanic
The Future: Fertility Trends
Replacement Level
St. Replacement Birth Level 2.1
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Georgia
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Global Aging VIDEO Kodokushi
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Changing Global Growth Patterns
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/06/17/worlds-population-is-projected-to-nearly-stop-growing-by-the-end-of-the-century/
Looking to the year 2100 Fertility Rate continues to decline 2.5 to 1.9-Median Age increase to 42 from 31 (2018) from 24 (1950)-Africa is the only world region projected to have strong population growth-Europe and Latin America are both expected to have declining populations by 2100-Asian population is expected to increase from 4.6 billion in 2020 to 5.3 billion in 2055, then start to decline-In the Northern America region, migration from the rest of the world is expected to be the primary driver of continued population growth-Six countries are projected to account for more than half of the world’s population growth-India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country by 2027-Between 2020 and 2100, 90 countries are expected to lose population-Africa is projected to overtake Asia in births by 2060-The Latin America and Caribbean region is expected to have the oldest population of any world region by 2100
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Population GrowthRace and Ethnicity
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US White Population 1970-2017
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+3,015
65,005
80,339
105,099
140,661
173,205
207,223
219,506
238,573
238,711
257,891
292,310
312,828
315,393
340,592
344,414
377,384
399,231
404,525
411,105
416,904
432,599
523,148
549,928
612,811
678,844
692,289
699,534
870,789
1,234,110
1,289,388
Pittsburgh
Detroit
Durham
Cincinnati
Chicago
San Jose
Columbus
Jacksonville
Philadelphia
San Diego
Raleigh
Portland
Minneapolis
Nashville
Boston
San Francisco
Tampa
Charlotte
San Antonio
Riverside
Denver
Orlando
Seattle
Miami
Washington
Los Angeles
Phoenix
Atlanta
New York
Houston
Dallas
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9Population Growth, 2010-2019
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Change in Race and Ethnicity 2010-2019
81,338 351,561 119,713
-600,000 -400,000 -200,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000
DurhamPittsburghCincinnatiSan Jose
ColumbusCleveland
DetroitRaleigh
NashvilleMinn-St. Paul
JacksonvillePortland
CharlotteSan Francisco
AtlantaSeattleDenver
San DiegoPhiladelphia
BostonTampa-St. Pete
ChicagoWashington DC
San AntonioOrlandoPhoenix
RiversideLos Angeles
DallasMiamireaHouston
New York
White NH Black NH Asian NH Other NH Hispanic
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120 Years of Growth
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Change in Race and Ethnicity 2010-2018So
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1995 School EnrollmentSo
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A D
OE
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2018 School EnrollmentSo
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WHITE
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AMERICAN INDIAN
ASIAN
OTHER
HISPANIC
1 Dot= 6 People
Race and Ethnicity
1970
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WHITE
BLACK
AMERICAN INDIAN
ASIAN
OTHER
HISPANIC
1 Dot= 6 People
Race and Ethnicity
1980
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WHITE
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AMERICAN INDIAN
ASIAN
OTHER
HISPANIC
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Race and Ethnicity1990
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AMERICAN INDIAN
ASIAN
OTHER
HISPANIC
1 Dot= 6 People
Race and Ethnicity2000
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Race and Ethnicity2015
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9Race and Ethnicity 2018
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Age
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+Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus
http://www.neighborhoodnexus.org/100-largest-metros
Metro Atlanta One of the Youngest Metros in Nation (especially in the Southeast)
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2018 Median Age
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County Age Forecasts VIDEO
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Economic Growth
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Large Metros: Growth Indexh
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-in
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Jobs, GMP, Job Change in young firms
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San Jose, San Francisco, Seattle, and Washington, D.C., accounted for 45 % of total market absorption in 58 markets
U.S. office investors continue to transact in a fairly balanced market. Office vacancy has remained
near 13 percent for the past two years as new supply meets demand. With rents up by only 1.3
percent in the past year, the office sector is ranked fourth of six property types in the Emerging
Trends survey for investment prospects in 2019, and fifth for development prospects—similar to its
rankings in last year’s Emerging Trends. However, significant variances exist by market as the tech
industry continues to lead leasing trends. While the majority of markets continue to experience
positive absorption, San Jose, San Francisco, Seattle, and Washington, D.C., accounted for 45 percent
of total market absorption in 58 markets in the first half of 2018. Office supply is also concentrated
in a few markets, with 41 percent of new office product under construction in just four markets—
New York, San Francisco, D.C., and Seattle. With the exception of D.C., these markets have generally
maintained high central business district (CBD) occupancy rates.
https://www.pwc.com/us/en/asset-management/real-estate/assets/pwc-emerging-trends-in-real-estate-2019.pdf
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Building Permit Trends 2010-2018 So
urc
e: S
tate
of
the
Cit
ies
Da
tab
ase
(SO
CD
S)
1,230
2,106
2,720
3,163
8,663
15,656
16,080
22,353
23,245
24,190
26,842
39,512
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
Rockdale
Douglas
Clayton
Fayette
Henry
DeKalb
Cherokee
Cobb
Fulton Not Atlanta
Forsyth
Gwinnett
City of Atlanta
Total
ACS 2013-17:Non-Family Households 57.6%Householder Alone: 47.4%https://www.gmanet.com/GMASite/media/PDF/citydata/04000.pdf
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Sou
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Co
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Office Net New Space(SF) by Submarket: 2010Q1 to 2019Q1
Top Sub-Markets
-206,601
-205,146
23,698
55,974
105,757
157,056
213,286
213,581
218,885
233,216
236,858
241,663
282,003
295,278
411,645
520,808
658,117
842,142
1,410,572
1,488,752
1,993,669
-500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000
Norcross/ Peachtree Corners
CBD ATL
Douglasville
Lower Buckhead
I-20 East/ Conyers
Kennesaw Town Center
South Clayton/ Henry
Lawrenceville/ Lilburn
Chamblee/ Doraville/ N Druid
Fayette Coweta
East Cobb
North Clayton Airport
Cherokee County
Decatur
Cumberland/ Galleria
Northside Drive/ GA Tech
Duluth/ Suwanee/ Buford
Upper Buckhead
North Fulton/ Forsyth
Central Perimeter
Midtown Pershing Point
Source: CoStar; ARC RAG Extraction and Analysis
ESRI INFOGROUP Data: Atlanta Jobs before EMORY Annexation: 450,620After with Emory:530,784New Daily Population
2018 Total Daytime Population 853,471 Workers 614,905 Residents 238,566
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Employment 2010-2019
2,605
4,078
4,591
5,585
8,300
10,287
11,628
13,749
15,863
19,238
47,191
55,953
67,725
82,626
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000
Rockdale
Douglas
Paulding
Fayette
Coweta
DeKalb
Clayton
Henry
Cherokee
Forsyth
Gwinnett
Cobb
Fulton minus Atlanta
City of Atlanta
htt
p:/
/ww
w.c
hm
ura
eco
n.c
om
/jo
bse
q/
ESRI INFOGROUP Data: Atlanta Jobs before EMORY Annexation: 450,620After with Emory:530,784
ESRI 2018 Total Daytime Population: 853,471Workers 614,905 Residents 238,566
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+$23,070
$24,420
$25,380
$26,840
$28,180
$29,740
$32,730
$35,070
$35,760
$40,640
$44,960
$45,540
$46,010
$49,290
$49,700
$66,070
$66,440
$68,350
$80,170
$80,810
$86,340
$104,240
$- $40,000 $80,000
Food Preparation and Serving Related
Personal Care and Service
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry
Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance
Sales and Related
Healthcare Support
Transportation and Material Moving
Production
Office and Administrative Support
Protective Service
Community and Social Service
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair
Construction and Extraction
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media
Education, Training, and Library
Life, Physical, and Social Science
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical
Business and Financial Operations
Architecture and Engineering
Legal
Computer and Mathematical
Management
Median Annual Wage, 2018
0.8%
1.3%
0.0%
-0.2%
-0.6%
0.1%
-0.1%
-1.3%
-2.2%
0.1%
0.2%
-0.1%
-0.9%
0.0%
-0.1%
-0.1%
0.9%
0.9%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.7%
0.8%
-2.5% -1.5% -0.5% 0.5% 1.5%
Change in Employment Share, 2007 to 2018
United States Major Occupations by Median Annual Wage & Change in Employment Share
2007 to 2018 (BLS)
The largest loss of job shares has been in “middle wage occupations”
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Socioeconomics
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20162000
Change in Poverty 2000-16More than 20% of people living in Poverty by Census Tract (Neighborhood)
Sou
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US
Cen
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Bu
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METRO CENTRAL CITY
Growth Low-Income Displacement
Abandonment Low-Income Concentration
Growth Low-Income Displacement
Abandonment Low-Income Concentration
Washington DC 3% 8% 0% 8% 3% 36% 0% 8%
Atlanta 2% 3% 1% 23% 7% 21% 1% 19%
Los Angeles 3% 15% 1% 10% 6% 20% 1% 8%
New Orleans 1% 10% 5% 19% 2% 20% 10% 19%
New York 2% 11% 1% 14% 4% 19% 1% 13%
Baltimore 1% 7% 1% 12% 2% 17% 5% 19%
San Diego 2% 10% 0% 13% 3% 16% 0% 9%
Boston 1% 6% 0% 9% 5% 14% 1% 10%
Denver 2% 4% 0% 22% 6% 14% 0% 19%
Portland 2% 6% 0% 14% 2% 14% 0% 9%
Providence 1% 4% 0% 17% 2% 14% 0% 13%
Saint Louis 1% 3% 3% 27% 3% 14% 8% 23%
Seattle 3% 5% 0% 10% 11% 14% 1% 5%
Hartford 1% 3% 0% 18% 8% 13% 3% 32%
San Francisco 2% 6% 0% 12% 6% 13% 0% 7%
Philadelphia 1% 5% 2% 22% 2% 12% 4% 34%
Austin 5% 6% 0% 11% 5% 11% 0% 19%
Houston 7% 6% 1% 17% 1% 11% 3% 27%
Virginia Beach 3% 9% 0% 11% 2% 11% 0% 13%
Miami 3% 3% 1% 25% 12% 10% 0% 17%
Riverside 7% 4% 1% 15% 9% 10% 0% 10%
Salt Lake City 5% 3% 1% 17% 2% 10% 0% 21%
Chicago 1% 3% 3% 34% 2% 9% 8% 34%
Pittsburgh 1% 8% 2% 17% 9% 7% 22%
https://www.law.umn.edu/institute-metropolitan-opportunity/gentrification
NeighborhoodChange
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Low Income Displacement and Concentration Atlantah
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1990MedianHH Income
htt
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2012-16h
ttp
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.org
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Sales Price Per SQ Ft 2018
Source: Analysis by ARC Research & Analytics using Zillow's ZTRAX data 2018
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Neighborhood Home Price Change 2013 to 2018
Source: Analysis by ARC Research & Analytics using Zillow's ZTRAX data from 2013 & 2018
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Home Sales 2018Region Name Zhvi 5Year
Summerhill $ 339,200 19.2%Edgewood $ 353,400 15.4%Old Fourth Ward $ 295,500 15.1%Cabbagetown $ 407,200 14.9%Lindbergh $ 225,300 14.6%East Lake $ 397,900 14.4%East Atlanta $ 331,000 14.2%Kirkwood $ 423,000 14.1%Riverside $ 288,300 13.3%Bolton $ 273,800 12.9%Poncey-Highland $ 345,000 12.8%Home Park $ 366,000 11.6%Atlantic Station $ 297,400 11.3%Underwood Hills $ 348,000 10.3%Candler Park $ 588,300 10.1%Paces $ 1,161,800 9.5%Ormewood Park $ 399,200 9.3%Ansley Park $ 745,600 9.2%Brookhaven $ 1,311,500 9.0%Midtown $ 306,200 8.9%Pine Hills $ 254,200 8.9%West Paces Ferry - Northside $ 1,155,300 8.6%Downtown $ 224,500 8.6%Lake Claire $ 601,300 8.6%Midwest Cascade $ 286,400 8.4%Peachtree Heights West $ 295,800 7.6%Inman Park $ 528,700 7.6%
Source: Analysis by ARC Research & Analytics using Zillow's ZTRAX data 2018
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+Source: Center for Neighborhood Technology (CNT) H+T Affordability Index
62
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Percent of Income Spend on Housing + Transportation Costs for Moderate Income HHs
Add in Transportation Costs, and Metro Atlanta’s Affordability Gets Even More Constrained
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Commute Times to Work
Source: US Census, via Neighborhood Nexus
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So
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INR
IXI-75/I-85 North
Entering Downtown Is the Most
Congested Interstate Bottleneck
(2018)
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+ Source: INRIX
I-75 / I-85 Northbound Approaching Downtown Travels Below 40 MPH Between 6:30 AM and 7:30 PM Each Day
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HomeValue
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MedianHousehold
Income
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The Forecast
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US Regions Growth 2018-2050W
oo
ds
& P
oo
le E
con
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Inc.
(B
EA r
egi
on
s)
NAME 2018 2050 Change % Change
UNITED STATES 328,911 426,439 97,528 30%
SUM OF METRO COUNTIES (IN MSA OR MICRO) 293,686 379,908 86,221 29%
SUM OF NON-METRO COUNTIES (NOT IN MSA OR MICRO) 35,225 46,532 11,307 32%
NEW ENGLAND 14,891 17,001 2,110 14%
MIDEAST 49,581 55,616 6,035 12%
GREAT LAKES 47,134 51,940 4,806 10%
PLAINS 21,476 25,906 4,430 21%
SOUTHEAST 84,728 117,253 32,525 38%
SOUTHWEST 41,966 64,044 22,078 53%
ROCKY MOUNTAIN 12,209 17,777 5,568 46%
FAR WEST 56,926 76,902 19,976 35%
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State Growth
Sou
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Wo
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Po
ole
regi
on
al im
pac
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lo
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ance
+
Metro GrowthSo
urc
e: W
oo
ds
an
d P
oo
le
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on
al im
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ance
+
SE MetrosVIDEO
regi
on
al im
pac
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ance
+
ARC DRAFT S16 Forecast (21-County)
5,697,710
8,600,731
3,556,792
4,729,664
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
9,000,000
10,000,000
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
20
33
20
34
20
35
20
36
20
37
20
38
20
39
20
40
20
41
20
42
20
43
20
44
20
45
20
46
20
47
20
48
20
49
20
50
Population Employment
Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2019) Series 16 DRAFT
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
29.4%
32.5%
21.4%
11.6%
10.7%
7.9%
38.5%
48.0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2050
2015
% Black % Hispanic % Other % White
Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2019) Series 16 DRAFT
Race and Ethnicity Change
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
% Ages 0-22 % Ages 23-38 % Ages 39-54 % Ages 55 - 74 % 75+
2015 2050
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
Ages 0-22 Ages 23-38 Ages 39-54 Ages 55 - 74 Ages 75+
2015 2050
Age Change
Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2019) Series 16 DRAFT
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2019) Series 16 DRAFT
Forecast Population
Change2015-2050
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Forecast Population
Change2015-2050
Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2019) Series 16 DRAFT
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Forecast Population Change, per mi²
2015-2050
Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2019) Series 16 DRAFT
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Forecast Population Change, per mi²
2015-2050
Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2019) Series 16 DRAFT
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Forecast Employment Change
2015-2050
Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2019) Series 16 DRAFT
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Forecast Employment Change
2015-2050
Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2019) Series 16 DRAFT
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Forecast Employment Change, per mi² Mile
2015-2050
Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2019) Series 16 DRAFT
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
Forecast Employment Change, per mi²
2015-2050
Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2019) Series 16 DRAFT
regi
on
al im
pac
t +
lo
cal r
elev
ance
+
-100.0% -50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% 150.0% 200.0% 250.0% 300.0%
Information
Retail Trade
Health Care and Social Assistance
Construction
Wholesale Trade
Professional, Scientific, and Technical
Finance and Insurance
Transportation and Warehousing
Admin and Waste Management
Management of Companies
Other Services, except Public Administration
Real Estate, Rental and Leasing
Arts, Entertainment, and Rec
Accommodation and Food
Manufacturing
Forestry, Fishing, and Related
Mining
Educational services; private
Utilities
% Change inJobs
% Change inOutput
Percent Change in Output and Jobs, 2015-2050
Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2019) Series 16 DRAFT
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on
al im
pac
t +
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cal r
elev
ance
+
(100,000) - 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000
Health Care and Social Assistance
Professional, Scientific, and Technical
Construction
Admin and Waste Management
Retail Trade
Finance and Insurance
Wholesale Trade
Accommodation and Food Services
Information
Other Services, except Public Admin
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Transportation and Warehousing
Management of Companies
Educational services; private
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Mining
Forestry, Fishing, and Related
Utilities
Manufacturing
1990 Change, 1990-2015 Change, 2015-2050Note: Does not include Dawson
Employment Forecast60 Years of Employment Change – 1990-2050 NAICS Sectors
regi
on
al im
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ance
+
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
All Races White-NonHispanic Black-NonHispanic Other-NonHispanic HispanicNote: Does not include Dawson
Labor Force Participation Rate 1990-2050
Source: ARC The Region’s Plan Forecast (2019) Series 16 DRAFT
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on
al im
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t +
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ance
+
Questions?
Mike Alexander, AICP
Director, Center for Livable Communities
Atlanta Regional Commission
http://www.neighborhoodnexus.org/http://www.atlantaregional.org/
http://33n.atlantaregional.com/
