Tech Mahindra, 7th February, 2013
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Transcript of Tech Mahindra, 7th February, 2013
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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
EBITDA 376 338 11.4 234 60.6
EBITDA margin (%) 21.0 20.7 31bp 16.2 479bp
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*exclude one-offs
For 3QFY2013, Tech Mahindra reported a strong set of results for 3QFY2013,with operating performance ahead of our expectations. The EBITDA marginincrease despite the lower margin profile of the two acquired companies, wasencouraging. The company announced five deal wins during 3QFY2013 with a
TCV of ~US$100mn and continues to chase 5-6 large deals in the pipeline. Theramp-up on the recently won deals will lend visibility to revenue growth and isexpected to offset the decline in revenues from BT.
For 3QFY2013, Tech Mahindra reported USD revenue ofUS$329mn, up 10% qoq, aided by acquisition of HGS and Comviva.HGS contributed ~US$37mn to the revenues while Comviva contributed US$6mn(19 days contribution). In INR terms, revenue came in at `1,791cr, up 9.8% qoq.The EBITDA margin grew by 31bp qoq to 21.0%, majorly because of headcountrationalization which led to improvement in utilization level also. The PAT came inat `276cr, down 7% qoq, negatively impacted by lower profits from its associatecompany Mahindra Satyam. During the quarter, Mahindra Satyam paid
`294cr towards settlement of legal claims of Aberdeen.
The Management indicated that the overall IT spending inthe telecom vertical is expected to remain flat and it expects to see market sharegains through higher cost optimization initiatives at client levels. The ramp ups onthe recently won deals will lend visibility to revenue growth. We believe theincreased traction in non-British Telecom (BT) accounts and consolidation of HGS(US$170mn annual revenue run rate) and Comviva (~US$70mn annual revenuerun rate) will offset the decline in BT and will drive growth going forward. Weexpect a CAGR of 10.4% and 17.7% in USD and INR revenue over FY2012-14.We expect a 27.3% and 15.9% CAGR in EBITDA and PAT of Tech Mahindra overFY2012-14. Taking the new share count of 23.08cr shares (post merger ofTech Mahindra and Mahindra Satyam) into account, the consolidated EPS comes
in at `92.2.
Key financials (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
% chg 3.6 11.1 6.8 23.7 12.1
% chg (30.9) (8.3) 70.4 16.2 15.7
EBITDA margin (%) 24.5 19.5 16.7 21.0 19.6
P/E (x) 18.3 19.9 11.1 10.2 8.8
P/BV (x) 4.4 3.8 3.2 2.5 2.0
RoE (%) 24.6 23.5 28.7 24.3 22.3
RoCE (%) 19.8 16.9 13.1 17.6 15.5
EV/Sales (x) 3.2 2.7 2.5 1.9 1.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 13.0 13.6 14.9 9.3 8.4
Source: Company, Angel Research
CMP `979
Target Price `1,105
Investment Period 12 months
Stock Info
Sector
Net debt (` cr) 836
Bloomberg Code
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 47.5
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 22.2
FII / NRIs / OCBs 20.1Indian Public / Others 10.2
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex 4.4 10.9 24.4
Tech Mahindra 1.7 51.7 4.9
10
19,640
5,959
TEML.BO
TECHM.IN
12,767
0.6
1043/579
114,618
IT
Avg. Daily Volume
Market Cap (` cr)
Beta
52 Week High / Low
Face Value (`)
BSE Sensex
Nifty
Reuters Code
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6819
Performance Highlights
3QFY2013 Result Update | IT
February 6, 2013
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Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2013 Result Update
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Exhibit 1:3QFY2013 performance (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
Cost of revenue 1,125 1,034 8.8 986 14.0 3,127 2,747 13.8Gross profit 667 598 11.5 459 45.3 1,839 1,323 39.0
SG&A expense 290 260 11.6 225 29.3 795 643 23.6
Dep. and amortization 51 48 5.0 39 29.5 141 123 14.3
EBIT 326 290 12.5 195 66.8 904 557 62.2
Interest 26 23 34 73 90
Other income 30 (64) 15 (51) 119
PBT 330 203 62.5 176 87.0 779 587 32.8
Income taxes 81 25 221.9 29 174.8 164 120 37.5
PAT 249 178 40.0 147 69.4 615 467 31.6
Minority interest 7 - 2 7 4
Profit from associates 34 119 132 303 329
Exceptional item - - - - -
Diluted EPS 20.7 22.3 (7.2) 20.9 (0.9) 68.6 60.1 14.1
Gross margin (%) 37.2 36.6 57bp 31.8 546bp 37.0 32.5 453bp
EBITDA margin (%) 21.0 20.7 31bp 16.2 479bp 21.0 16.7 432bp
EBIT margin (%) 18.2 17.8 44bp 13.5 467bp 18.2 13.7 451bp
PAT margin (%) 15.4 18.2 (276)bp 19.1 (370)bp 18.3 19.5 (114)bp
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2:3QFY2013 Actual vs Angel estimates
Net revenue 1,791 1,755 2.1
EBITDA margin (%) 21.0 19.3 166bp
PAT* 242 195 24.0
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *Excludes share of profits from Mahindra Satyam
Robust performance
For 3QFY2013, Tech Mahindra reported USD revenue of US$329.4mn, up 10.1%
qoq, aided by acquisition of HGS and Comviva. HGS contributed ~US$37mn to
the revenues while Comviva contributed US$6mn (19 days contribution) during the
quarter. On an organic basis, revenues remained almost flat qoq with BT being
the biggest dragger. USD revenues from non-BT accounts grew by ~16.7% qoq to
US$234mn, aided by acquisitions. On an organic basis, the non-BT business grew
by 2% qoq, which is decent considering that 3Q has traditionally been a soft
quarter for IT companies. Revenue from BT declined by 3.3% qoq. In INR terms,
the revenue came in at `1,791cr, up 5.7% qoq.
The Management indicated the possibility of further decline in revenues from BT
accounts going forward for the next couple of quarters because of continued
restructuring activity in BT, though the quantum of decline in BT will only be clearer
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Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2013 Result Update
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in the coming quarters. While the revenue run rate from BT has declined in the
recent quarters, the actual base revenue run rate for BT post decline will be clear
post the restructuring activity is over.
Tech Mahindra announced five key deal wins during the quarter, with a combined
TCV of US$100m.
Exhibit 3:Trend in revenue growth for non-BT accounts
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 4:Revenue trend for BT account
Source: Company, Angel Research
During the quarter, the companys revenue from telecom service providers (TSPs;
~71% contribution to revenue) grew by 0.6% qoq to `1,268cr, and revenue from
telecom equipment manufacturers (TEMs; ~6% contribution to revenue) grew by
2.4% qoq to `109cr.
Utilization level inches up
The companys overall headcount declined by 1,420 employees, despite 1,546employee additions from Comviva, with the companys total headcount standing at
49,059. This was because of continuous decline in business from BT, exit from
lower margin domestic BPO business along with headcount rationalization.
188
177 180
200
234
0.6
(5.5)
1.5
11.3
16.7
(8)
(4)
0
4
8
12
16
20
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13
(%)
(US$mn)
Non BT qoq growth
101
104
101
99
96
(7.8)
3.1
(2.8)
(2.5)
(3.3)
(10)
(8)
(6)
(4)
(2)
0
2
4
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13
(%)
(US$mn)
BT qoq growth
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The Management indicated that the company will continue with its just-in-time
hiring policy and will hire laterals on a need basis. BPO headcount declined by
2,438 employees to 22,565. The headcount decline drove the companys
utilization level by ~200bp qoq to 76% in 3QFY2013.
Exhibit 5:Trend in utilization rate
Source: Company, Angel Research
Operating margin surprises positively
In 3QFY2013, the companys EBITDA margin grew by 31bp qoq to 21.0%
(significantly ahead of our estimates as we had expected a 135bp qoq decline),
despite having a negative impact from the lower margin profile of the two
acquisitions done recently. This was majorly because of headcount rationalization
which led to improvement in utilization level also. Also, Tech Mahindras
continuous cost optimization measures and focus on improving profitability from
lower performing projects aided margins.
Exhibit 6:Margin trend
Source: Company, Angel Research
(1,447)
(385) (65) (544)
785544
(1,627)
(184)
10,395
(2,438)
73
74 74 74
76
70
72
74
76
78
(4,000)
(2,000)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13
(%)
Netadditionno.
S/w professionals BPO professionals Utilization (%)
31.8
34.4
37.3 36.6 37.2
16.2 16.8
21.4 20.7 21.0
13.5
14.2
18.7
17.8
18.2
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13
(%)
Gross profit margin EBITDA margin EBIT margin
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Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2013 Result Update
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Client pyramid
The active client base of the company stood at 140. The companys top 2-5 clients
drove its growth in 3QFY2013 by registering 30.4% qoq USD revenue growth,
aided by HGS. The company added one client in US$50mn+ revenue bracket.
Exhibit 7:Client metrics
US$1mn2mn 22 22 18 16 19
US$2mn5mn 13 10 10 14 14
US$5mn10mn 13 13 14 15 12
US$10mn15mn 6 6 6 5 6
US$15mn20mn 2 2 1 0 0
US$20mn25mn 3 2 2 1 1
US$25mn50mn 2 3 3 3 2US$50mn+ 2 2 2 3 4
Active clients 130 130 130 126 140
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 8:Trend in revenue growth of top clients (qoq)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Outlook and valuation
The Management indicated that the company remains confident of growth from
the non-BT business with it continuing to see a robust deal pipeline across
geographies. As per the Management, overall IT spending in the telecom vertical is
expected to remain sluggish and it expects to see market share gains through
higher cost optimization initiatives at client levels.
The company announced five deal wins during 3QFY2013 with a TCV of ~US$
100mn and continues to chase 5-6 large deals in the pipeline, though closure
velocity remains unchanged. The Management witnessed that the decision making
cycle continues to remain elongated and decision making continues to beextremely slow as customers scrutinize every aspect of expenditure. The ramp ups
on the recently won deals will lend visibility to revenue growth and are expected to
offset the decline in revenues from BT. Tech Mahindras managed services focus
(7.8)
3.1
(2.8)(2.5)
(3.3)
0.63.6
8.7 9.2
30.4
(2.5)
(12.2)
(0.1)
65.5
(13.5)(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13
(%)
BT Next 4 accounts Next 5 accounts
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Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2013 Result Update
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has helped the company close a large number of deals through FY2013, which
will start ramping up from 4QFY2013 onwards and lend visibility to better growth
in FY2014. We believe the increased traction in non-BT accounts and
consolidation of HGS (US$170mn annual revenue run rate) and Comviva(~US$70mn annual revenue run rate) will offset the decline in BT and will drive
growth going forward. We expect a CAGR of 10.4% and 17.7% in USD and INR
revenue over FY2012-14.
The company expects ramp-ups in large deals won recently in the next couple of
quarters. Transition costs in the same are expected to impact operating margins
negatively. Also, full quarter revenues from Comviva from 4QFY2013 could have
an impact on profitability. However, the company has maintained strong focus on
productivity, and weeded out some low margin BPO contracts to offset the impact.
There remains some scope for further rationalization, which could partially cushion
the decline. The PAT is expected to be supported by 1) the deep in-the-moneyhedges of 260mn and US$570mn with participation rates at 86.0 INR/GBP and
54.1 INR/USD, boosting forex gains for the company; and 2) healthy Mahindra
Satyams earnings. We expect a 27.3% and 15.9% CAGR in EBITDA and PAT of
Tech Mahindra over FY2012-14. PAT of Tech Mahindra and Satyam for FY2014
are expected to be at `902cr and `1,335cr respectively. Taking the new share
count of 23.08cr shares (post merger of Tech Mahindra and Mahindra Satyam)
into account, the consolidated EPS comes in at `92.2.
Exhibit 9:Key assumptions
Revenue growth (US$) 7.9 13.0
USD-INR rate (realized) 54.4 54.0
Revenue growth (`) 23.7 12.1
EBITDA margin (%) 21.0 19.6
Tax rate (%) 21.4 26.0
EPS growth (%) 8.7 15.5
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 10:Change in estimates
Net revenue 6,671 6,789 1.8 7,290 7,609 4.4
EBITDA 1,323 1,423 7.5 1,386 1,490 7.5
PBT 966 1,083 12.2 1,170 1,219 4.2
Tax 213 240 13.1 304 317 4.2
PAT 1,248 1,273 2.0 1,410 1,472 4.4
Source: Company, Angel Research
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Exhibit 11:One-year forward PE (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research. Note: P/E includes share of profits from Mahindra Satyam
2QFY2011 onwards.
Exhibit 12:Recommendation summary
HCL Tech Accumulate 670 765 14.2 20.7 12.7 13.6 1.5 22.9
Hexaware Buy 78 118 51.8 19.0 7.3 6.3 0.8 22.0
Infosys Neutral 2,774 - - 28.8 16.0 5.9 2.9 21.3
Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 163 184 13.0 17.4 8.4 10.3 0.5 13.6KPIT Cummins Buy 112 140 25.4 15.2 8.7 16.9 0.7 20.5
Mahindra Satyam Accumulate 116 126 8.2 19.8 10.3 3.7 1.2 23.7
MindTree Accumulate 790 868 9.9 19.3 9.1 17.4 0.9 21.7
Mphasis Accumulate 363 396 9.1 17.5 9.6 0.0 0.7 13.5
NIIT^ Buy 26 36 37.7 10.9 4.2 (2.7) 0.1 14.1
Persistent Neutral 532 - - 24.1 9.9 15.1 1.1 18.0
TCS Accumulate 1,371 1,465 6.9 28.9 17.3 13.3 3.5 29.7
Wipro Accumulate 405 429 6.0 19.4 14.6 6.8 1.7 17.9
Source: Company, Angel Research. Note: ^Valued on SOTP basis,* EPS CAGR includes earnings from Mahindra Satyam
100
400
700
1,000
1,300
1,600
1,900
2,200
2,500
Jan-08 Aug-08 Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12 Sep-12
(`)
Price 23 18 13 8 4
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Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2013 Result Update
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Company Background
Tech Mahindra was founded in 1986 as a joint venture between Mahindra Group
and British Telecom (BT). Later on, it started servicing other external clients as well
(solely in the telecom industry), though it still derives ~37% of its revenue from BT.
In June 2009, Tech Mahindra acquired a 42.7% stake in erstwhile Satyam
Computers (now Mahindra Satyam).
Profit and loss statement (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
Cost of revenues 2,871 3,403 3,678 4,279 4,940
1,754 1,737 1,811 2,510 2,669
% of net sales 37.9 33.8 33.0 37.0 35.1
SG&A expenses 622 734 892 1,087 1,179% of net sales 13.4 14.3 16.3 16.0 15.5
% of net sales 24.5 19.5 16.7 21.0 19.6
Dep. and amortization 134 144 161 194 221
% of net sales 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9
EBIT 999 860 758 1,230 1,269
% of net sales 21.6 16.7 13.8 18.1 16.7
Interest expense 218 100 103 103 84
Other income, net of forex 75 117 98 (44) 34
Profit before tax 856 877 753 1,083 1,219
Provision for tax 144 132 144 240 317
% of PBT 16.8 15.0 19.1 22.2 26.0
Recurring PAT 712 746 610 843 902
Share from associates 44 557 437 570
Exceptional item (9) (143) (68) - -
Minority interest 3 4 4 7 -
Fully diluted EPS (`) 53.6 49.3 88.2 95.8 110.7
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Balance sheet (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
Equity capital 122 126 128 128 128
Preference capital - - - - -Share premium 237 260 270 270 270
Profit and loss 1,783 2,198 2,998 4,182 5,550
Other reserves 744 768 655 655 655
Secured loans 750 640 600 500 400
Unsecured loans 1,385 543 527 551 449
Total debt 2,135 1,183 1,127 1,051 849
Other long term liability - 392 430 480 510
Long-term provisions - 146 189 209 209
Minority interest 14 16 - - -
Gross block 1,131 1,287 1,514 1,670 1,870
Accumulated depreciation (527) (670) (832) (1,025) (1,246)
Net block 604 617 683 645 624
Capital WIP 321 61 167 197 227
Investments 3,015 2,870 3,427 3,956 4,510
Deferred tax asset, net 28 64 100 140 170
Long term loans and adv. - 415 338 338 338
Inventories 1 1 0 0 0
Sundry debtors 1,042 1,036 1,317 1,451 1,626
Cash and cash equivalents 219 267 242 622 1,031
Loans and advances 673 726 645 794 890
Sundry creditors (461) (247) (365) (367) (419)
Other liabilities (129) (558) (608) (600) (600)
Provision (277) (162) (151) (204) (228)
Working capital 1,068 1,061 1,081 1,696 2,300
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Cash flow statement (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
Pre tax profit from operations 780 760 655 1,127 1,185
Depreciation 134 144 161 194 221Expenses (deferred)/written off/others (9) (99) 557 437 570
Pre tax cash from operations 906 804 1,374 1,758 1,976
Other income/prior period ad 73 114 95 (51) 34
Net cash from operations 978 918 1,468 1,707 2,010
Tax (144) (132) (144) (240) (317)
Cash profits 834 786 1,324 1,466 1,693
(Inc)/dec in
Sundry debtors (140) 6 (281) (134) (175)
Inventories (0) 1 0 - -
Loans and advances (377) (53) 81 (149) (96)
Sundry creditors (8) (214) 118 3 52
Others (14) 315 38 45 25
Net trade working capital (539) 55 (44) (235) (195)
(Inc)/dec in fixed assets (407) 104 (333) (186) (230)
(Inc)/dec in investments (2,580) 145 (557) (529) (554)
(Inc)/dec in other non current assets (8) (305) 83 (20) (30)
Inc/(dec) in debt 2,135 (952) (56) (76) (202)
Inc/(dec) in deferred revenue 392 38 50 30
Inc/(dec) in equity/premium 5 27 12 - -
Inc/(dec) in minority interest 3 2 (16) - -
Addition to reserves on amalgamation 288 (144) (394) - -
Dividends (50) (61) (82) (89) (103)
Cash generated/(utilized) (320) 48 (25) 381 409
Cash at start of the year 538 219 267 242 622
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Key Ratios (Consolidated, Indian GAAP)
P/E (on FDEPS) 18.3 19.9 11.1 10.2 8.8P/CEPS 15.3 16.2 10.3 8.9 7.7
P/BVPS 4.4 3.8 3.2 2.5 2.0
Dividend yield (%) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
EV/Sales 3.2 2.7 2.5 1.9 1.7
EV/EBITDA 13.0 13.6 14.9 9.3 8.4
EV/Total assets 15.9 20.2 16.1 15.7 14.8
EPS 53.6 49.3 88.2 95.8 110.7
Cash EPS 64.0 60.3 95.3 110.2 127.2
Dividend 3.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
Book value 221.4 257.0 307.2 393.4 496.3
Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.2 1.2
Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0
EBIT margin (EBIT/Sales) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2
Asset turnover ratio (Sales/Assets) 5.0 7.6 6.5 8.1 8.9
Leverage ratio (Assets/Equity) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
Operating ROE (%) 24.7 22.3 27.0 24.3 22.3
RoCE (pre-tax) 19.8 16.9 13.1 17.6 15.5
Angel RoIC 22.2 18.1 14.1 20.0 18.4
RoE 24.6 23.5 28.7 24.3 22.3
Asset turnover (fixed assets) 5.0 7.6 6.5 8.1 8.9
Receivables days 77 74 78 78 78
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Tech Mahindra | 3QFY2013 Result Update
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Research Team Tel: 022 - 3935 7800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement Tech Mahindra
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors