Swelling Oceans: Planning for sea level rise...Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 2 1.1...

Swelling Seas:

Planning for sea level rise

Westley Owers

Bachelor of Town Planning

Faculty of the Built Environment

University of New South Wales

November 2006

i

Abstract

Emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere over the last hundreds of years have placed

us in a precarious position, in that we have forced change upon one of the world’s most important

systems: climate. This climate change will have devastating impacts around the world. Of all the

impacts of human induced climate change, it is sea level rise that is regarded as the most certain.

Sea level is expected to rise in a best case scenario of one metre by the year 2100. However,

there is still uncertainty surrounding how the environment will react to greenhouse gas emissions,

and therefore a sea level rise of up to six metres above current levels by the year 2100 cannot be

ruled out. As sea level rises it will bring with it debilitating impacts such as inundation of coastal

areas, increased coastal erosion and an increased flooding of inland areas in storm surge

occurrences. The scope and magnitude of this environmental issue is such that these impacts will

seriously alter human settlement and fragile ecosystems in nations throughout the world. The only

way of reducing the impacts of this environmental issue is for government to prepare coastal policy

and legislation to address this issue now. The extent at which the impacts of sea level rise are

experienced at a local, state and national level within nations will be a direct result of the adaptive

response that governments implement to address this environmental issue. Sea level rise needs to

be addressed now so we can ensure the preservation of the coastline for future generations.

ii

Table of contents

Chapter 1: Introduction

1.1 Waves at our doorsteps 2

1.2 Problem Statement and Objectives 3

Research Statement 3

Research Objectives 4

1.3 Theoretical context 4

Scientific sea level rise 5

Coastal planning and policy 5

1.4 Limitations 6

1.5 Methodology 7

Discourse analysis 7

In-depth interviews 7

1.6 Summary of Chapters 8

Chapter 2: Unchartered waters 8

Chapter 3: Impacts of sea level rise 8

Chapter 4: Planning for sea level rise 9

Chapter 5: Broken bridges over troubled waters 9

Chapter 6: Recommendations, Conclusion 10

Chapter 2: Uncharted waters

2.1 Introduction 12

2.2 Definition of sea level and its measurement 12

2.3 Causes of natural sea level fluctuations 14

2.4 Sea level fluctuations throughout the earth’s history 16

iii

2.5 Unchartered waters: Current projections of future sea level rise 19

2.6 Conclusion 23

Chapter 3: Impacts of sea level rise

3.1 Introduction 25

3.2 General impacts of sea level rise 25

Inundation 25

Storm surge flooding 26

Erosion 27

3.3 Vulnerable ecosystems 27

Beaches 27

Wetlands 28

Coral reefs 30

3.4 Impacts of sea level rise on human settlement 31

General Impacts on human settlement 31

Vulnerable nations 32 The Netherlands 33 Bangladesh 35 Australia 36

3.5 Conclusion 38

Chapter 4: Planning for sea level rise

4.1 Introduction 40

4.2 Human responses to sea level rise 40

4.3 A question of scale 42

4.4 Intergovernmental and international coastal planning & management 42

4.5 National coastal planning within Australia 43

iv

4.6 Coastal planning and management in New South Wales 44

4.7 Conclusion 54

Chapter 5: Broken bridges over troubled waters

5.1 Introduction 56 5.2 Issues in the NSW system and policy 56

Existing knowledge 56 Responsibility 58 Guiding documents 60 Legislative enforcement 62

Funding 63

5.3 Conclusion 64

Chapter 6: Recommendations Conclusion

6.1 Introduction 66

6.2 Recommendations 66

Existing knowledge 67 Responsibility 67 Guiding documents 68 Legislative enforcement 70

Funding 70

6.2 Conclusion 71

Bibliography 74

v

Figures Figure 1: Tide gauge stations that have been operating continuously for more than 30 years.

14

Figure 2: Outline of Australia and the islands to the north about 18,000 years ago prior to the Later Quaternary marine transgression.

17

Figure 3: Walsh’s estimated contributions to sea level rise over the twentieth century (in cm)

18

Figure 4: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s estimated contributions to sea level rise over the twentieth century.

18

Figure 5: Unmitigated and stabilisation scenarios for global mean rise in sea level including effects of climate sensitivity.

20

Figure 6: The IPCC’s reasons for uncertainty.

21

Figure 7: Satellite images of the break-up of the Larsen B ice shelf in 2002.

22

Figure 8: Inundation. a) normal scenario, b) sea level rises, wetland retreats converting dry land to wetland and wetland to open water.

25

Figure 9: The contribution of storm surges exacerbating sea levels on the coast.

26

Figure 10: Beach erosion under a rising sea level: the Brunn Rule.

28

Figure 11: The accumulation of peat has protected sea level rise from inundating wetlands in the past. This process will not be able to keep up with accelerated sea level rise in the future.

29

Figure 12: Socio-economic impacts of sea level rise.

31

Figure 13: The coastal floodplain, including different levels of sea water flooding in storm surge occurrences.

32

Figure 14: Netherlands sea level rise scenarios.

34

Figure 15: Land at risk in Bangladesh from a 1m sea level rise.

35

Figure 16: Australian sea level rise scenarios.

37

Figure 17: Sydney after 6m sea level rise (under the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet).

38

Figure 18: Wave energy dispersal a) without the presence of a hard sea defence, b) with the presence of a hard sea defence (sea wall).

41

Figure 19: Objective and actions of the National Cooperative Approach to Integrated Coastal Zone Management in relation to planning and management of climate change in Australia.

44

Figure 20: Acts, policies, strategies, manuals and guidelines relating to coastal planning and management in NSW and their interrelationships.

45

Figure 21: Definition of the coastal zone in the Coastal Protection Act 1979.

47

Figure 22: Strategic Actions in Part B of the NSW Coastal Policy 1997 aimed at addressing the impacts of climate change.

49

Figure 23: Aims of SEPP 71.

50

Figure 24: Regional Strategies actions to manage and plan the coastal zone.

52

Figure 25: Climate change associated with the coastline considered the primary responsibility of local government. 53

vi

Appendices

Appendix A: Interviewees Curriculum Vitae

Appendix B: Interview questions

Appendix C: University of New South Wales FBE Ethics Approval

Abbreviations ALGA Australian Local Government Association CP Act Coastal Protection Act 1979 CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisations DCP Development Control Plan EP & A Act Environmental Planning and Assessment Act 1979 GCM Geographic Climate Modellings GMSL Global mean sea level ICZM Integrated Coastal Zone Management LEP Local Environmental Plan LMSL Local mean sea level Major Projects SEPP State Environmental Planning Policy (Major Projects) 2005 Minister NSW Minister of Planning NCAICZM National Cooperative Approach to Integrated Coastal Zone Management NSW New South Wales SASAP South Asian Seas Action Plan SCCG Sydney Coastal Council Group SEPP State Environmental Planning Policy SEPP 14 State Environmental Planning Policy No. 14 - Coastal Wetlands SEPP 71 State Environmental Planning Policy No. 71- Coastal Protection WAIS West Antarctic Ice Sheet

vii

There have been a number of people who supported me throughout the preparation of this thesis including my family and Peri Muddle and to them I am eternally thankful.

Thank you to my interviewees Angus Gordon and Brett Whitworth whose insights helped shape

this thesis.

Also a special thank you must also be extended to Kirk Osborne and Erik Jimenez.

Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 1

Introduction


1.1 Waves at our doorsteps

For hundreds of years humans have released greenhouse gases into the atmosphere

without any concern for the effects that this would have on the future. We have now

been forced into an age of enlightenment, understanding that our current actions are

resulting in dramatic changes to our climate. This climate change is like no other that

has been experienced before in the history of the earth; with the atmosphere expected

to warm at an accelerated rate for a long time into the future. What was previously

thought to be a natural process of warming has now been revealed as human induced

climate change known as global warming.

The impacts of global warming are of a global scale and include changes such as

increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters including drought, cyclones,

tsunamis and bushfire and altering of the global currents effecting the world’s largest

ecosystem-the ocean. The impacts have the potential to devastate farming land, cities,

infrastructure and natural ecosystems prompting the displacement of thousands of

people throughout the nations of the world.

Of all the impacts of human induced climate change “accelerated sea level rise is

regarded as the most certain” (Douglas et al, 183:2001). Our past greenhouse

emissions have ensured that sea level rise is inevitable and that it will rise for hundreds

of years into the future. Even if we were to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions now

this process would not be stopped immediately, due to the nature of the natural

processes within the ocean. Initially, sea level will rise from glaciers and ice sheet

melting as a response to an increased temperature in the atmosphere. Soon the

consistent temperature increase in the atmosphere will be directly reflected through a

heating of the oceans’ waters, forcing it to expand and dramatically increase sea level in

the process.

At present best estimates indicate that there could be up to one metre sea level rise by

the year 2100. However these estimates are uncertain in that it is not sure how the

Antarctic will react to increases in the atmosphere. Therefore, the worst case scenario

foreseen at the moment would result in a sea level rise of up to six metres above


current levels. This rising of the sea will bring with it impacts resulting in the direct

inundation of some areas, increased coastal erosion, and coastal flooding penetrating

further inland in storm occurrences. Not all nations will be directly affected by these

impacts however sea level rise will indirectly impact on the global community

devastating human settlement and natural ecosystems.

The only way that governments can protect their nations from the debilitating impacts of

sea level rise will be through rigid policy and legislation. This legislation will need to

include adaptive responses to sea level rise, as our actions have determined that this

issue cannot be halted through mitigation measures in the near future. An adequate

adaptive response to policy will ensure minimum disruption to human settlements and

natural ecosystems as sea level rises in the near future.

This thesis addresses the environmental global issue of sea level rise illustrating the

predicted rise in the near future and highlighting the associated impacts that could

potential to be witnessed in nations throughout the world. This thesis takes a particular

focus on the Australian state of New South Wales (NSW) to show the policies and

legislation that have been prepared and whether or not these will protect the coastal

zone1 from the impacts of a rising sea level. Finally, this thesis ends with key

recommendations that are made to the NSW government to strengthen their policy in

relation to the accelerated sea level rise that will be experienced in the near future.

1.2 Problem Statement and Objectives

Research Statement

This thesis identifies the omissions that exist between current coastal planning policy in

NSW and what is required to protect human life, infrastructure and natural ecosystems

from the impacts of an accelerated sea level rise resulting from human induced climate

change.

1 This thesis uses the definition of the coastal zone included in the Coastal Protection Act 1979 and reproduced in

Figure 21 below.


Research Objectives

The research objectives of this thesis include:

� Gain an understanding of the history of natural sea level rise to contrast with the

changes that will be experienced from accelerated sea level rise in the near future;

� Provide an accurate depiction of the expected rises in sea level as presented by

informed scientists to further influence planning policy;

� Identify the following to inform policy-making to accurately address an accelerated

sea level rise:

o specific causes of sea level rise;

o impacts of sea level rise;

o areas that are vulnerable to sea level rise within both the natural and built

environment; and

o past and present human responses to sea level.

� Identify the interactions between current planning legislation, policy, plans and

strategies relating to the NSW coastal zone;

� Identify current planning legislation, policy, plans and strategies that attempt to

address the impacts of accelerated sea level rise;

� Identify key omissions in planning legislation, policy, plans and strategies aimed at

protecting the NSW coastal zone in light of the impacts of sea level rise; and

� Provide key recommendations to inform the future creation of NSW coastal

planning policy to address the impacts of rising sea level on the natural and built

environments.

1.3 Theoretical context

The investigation of planning for sea level rise comprises of scientific theory based on

modelling and research into past occurrences of sea level rise. This thesis also includes

an investigation into planning policy, legislation and plans that exist as an adaptive

response to current issues experienced by coastal areas. The ideal way to adequately

plan and manage the impacts of a rising sea level is to have planning legislation, policy

and plans informed by scientific theory. This is not always the case which will be

discussed later in this thesis.


These two important concepts that provide the subject of this thesis are discussed in

further detail below.

Scientific sea level rise

The scientific community has been responsible for identifying that our global climate is

dramatically warming, and ascertaining the impacts this will have on sea level rise. There

have been slightly differing opinions within the scientific community regarding the level at

which sea the level will rise in the future. Notwithstanding this, scientists have formed a

consensus agreeing that there will be above ordinary rises to sea level by 2050 and that

this will increase for centuries to come.

Regardless of the discrepancies between opinions on expected sea level rise scientists

provide us with valuable information on the impacts this will bring to our coastline. These

impacts have been generally based on past sea level rise (e.g. measured through tide

gauges) and laboratory modelling.

Although scientific information for sea level rise cannot provide us with a complete picture

of the rate at which sea level will increase, and therefore the intensity of the impacts, it

should be taken seriously. There will always be an element of uncertainty in this science

but this uncertainty will substantially reduce as technology advances and scientific

knowledge increases into the future (as discussed in Chapter 2 of this thesis).

Coastal planning and policy

The second theoretical context that will be utilised to prepare this thesis involves two main

areas: that of coastal researchers’ commentaries on planning responses to sea level rise,

and the actual coastal planning legislation, policy and plans developed by planners.

There are a number of key researchers in studying the planning response to sea level rise

including Walsh, McInnes and Church in Australia, and Titus, Bird, and Nicholls

internationally. Each of these researchers has a clear understanding of the science behind

relative sea level rise and the responses that are evident in planning for sea level rise.

Specific planning responses to sea level rise range from minor management such as

building sea walls to complex development principles for land use and built form. These

are discussed later in the thesis.


The thesis also draws on existing coastal legislation and policy that has been developed

in Australia and internationally. The thesis will particularly focus on coastal legislation and

policy that has been developed in NSW such as State Environmental Planning Policy No.

71-Coastal Protection, NSW Coastal Policy 1997 and the NSW Coastline Management

Manual.

The scope of NSW planning legislation and policy in addressing the impacts of a rising

sea level varies as is discussed later in this thesis. It is this legislation and policies that will

determine the intensity at which sea level rise impacts the NSW coastal zone.

1.4 Limitations

The context of this thesis is not only limited to identifying the impacts of a rising sea level

brought about by climate change but also natural sea level rises expected without human

intervention. This is suitable as the calculation of sea level rise brought about by global

warming generally includes sea level rise that is brought about naturally, without human

intervention. However, it should be noted that natural contributions will be almost

negligible in comparison to human induced contributions.

This thesis takes a precautionary approach to the understanding of sea level rise brought

about by climate change. Therefore this thesis recognises that there is still some scientific

uncertainty surrounding the exact amount that sea level will rise but aims at providing the

best approach to planning and management for this issue with the existing knowledge

available.

The nature of the ocean through its processes is such that sea level rise brought about by

climate change will continue into the future for hundreds of years to come. Even if all

emissions where to cease to be released into the atmosphere sea level would still rise.

This thesis therefore takes an adaptive, rather than a mitigating approach to this issue.


1.5 Methodology

The methodology of this thesis involves both a detailed investigation of existing literature

and legislation and more practical and active research through the undertaking of in depth

interviews with informed professionals who have experience in current planning legislation

and policy and the scope of impacts of a rising sea level.

Discourse analysis

Planning for accelerated sea level rise involves an in-depth analysis of a wide range of

literature relating to such topics as climate change, sea level rise, impacts of sea level

rise, and planning response including specific policy and general coastal legislation in

NSW. To provide a just and informed understanding of the issue, literature relating to the

above topics has been researched and analysed extensively.

In depth interviews

In depth face-to-face interviews have been undertaken to further supplement information

from literature and provide specific answers to questions that arise regarding scientific

knowledge and informing NSW planning legislation and policy.

The interviewees have been identified through scientific literature, planning policy, key

seminars, media and professional contacts. Each has been selected because of their

knowledge in expected levels of sea level rise and its impacts or their contribution to

coastal planning policy or both. The interviewees include:

� Angus Gordon- Chief Executive Officer of Pittwater Council; and

� Brett Whitworth- Acting Director, Regional Coordination of Regional and Rural

Planning at the Department of Planning.

A brief Curriculum Vitae of each interviewee is included at Appendix A. Interview

questions have been created specifically for these interviews in relation to the topics

investigated in this thesis (refer to Appendix B). Interviewees have been sourced and

given their consent to the interviews in accordance with the University of New South

Wales FBE Ethics Board requirements (refer to Appendix C).


1.6 Summary of Chapters

This report comprises six chapters, each important in providing an understanding of

planning for the impacts of an accelerated sea level rise. A brief summary of these

chapters is provided below.

Chapter 2: Uncharted waters

Global sea level has over the history of our earth fluctuated naturally (with a slight lag)

in accordance with temperature changes in the earth’s atmosphere. Thermal

expansion, glaciations and other factors have been responsible for past global sea

levels dramatically above and below that experienced today. Earth’s environment has

previously been dominated by processes brought about by natural interactions

between the planet’s spheres. We are now entering an era where natural factors of sea

level fluctuation will be strongly influenced by human actions as a result of global

warming. There is still some controversy as to whether our actions have already

influenced sea level sea rises over the last century. However, the future is abundantly

clear, in that our actions are instrumental in the expected dramatic and continual sea

level rises in the not too distant future.

Chapter 3: Impacts of sea level rise

The predicted rises in sea level will be experienced through a number of impacts,

including the inundation of coastal areas, increased likelihood of flooding in storm

surge occurrences and substantial increases to the erosion of coastlines. These

impacts will be enough to adversely affect many ecosystems including beaches,

coastal wetlands and coral reefs. In some areas these ecosystems will be forced to

reduce in size and in others they will be lost completely. These ecosystem losses will

inturn impact on human settlement reducing natural defence against rising sea level in

periods of storm surge. The degree at which the predicted sea level rise is expected to

have on nations varies, with some noticeably more vulnerable to this environment

issue than others. Even conservative sea level rise predictions will devastate some

nations, resulting in the loss of land and displacement of many people.


Chapter 4: Planning for sea level rise

Sea level rise is inevitable and therefore adaptive measures will be imperative to the

future of planning and management of the coastal zone. Planning for sea level rise is

underpinned by the decision of whether to surrender land to the sea or install hard

structures to hold back the sea. It is the social and economic issues raised by these

planning responses that form planning policy within nations throughout the world. This

environmental issue has global status and therefore should be implemented in all levels of

government around the world. Within Australia the management and planning of the

coastal zone is guided by individual state government legislation, policies and strategies.

In Australia it is the state governments that are responsible for the preparation of

legislation, policies and strategies to address the impacts of sea level rise. It is therefore

the strength of the state government’s policies and plans that will determine the extent at

which sea level rise will impact on ecosystems and human settlement at a national, state

and local level within the Australian context.

Chapter 5: Broken bridges over troubled waters

The Australia Government has devolved power to the state government to manage and plan

for the impacts of sea level rise. It is state government legislation, policy and plans that

should guide investigations, development assessment and also policy making to address the

impacts of sea level rise at a local level. The current legislation and policy prepared by the

NSW government is insufficient in providing suitable guidance for local government to plan

and manage the impacts of a rising sea level. Issues and misconception surround NSW

governments’ legislation and policies including existing knowledge, responsibility, guiding

documents, legislative enforcement and the provision of funding for local government. The

reliance of the federal and local government on the state government to accurately develop a

suitable planning response to protect human settlement and ecosystems from the impacts of

sea level rise means that these issues will have an impact on all levels of government and

the country of Australia as a whole.


Chapter 6: Recommendations, Conclusion

The impacts of sea level rise will soon threaten the coastal zone. It is the development

of appropriate responses at a state level that will guide the planning and management

of the coastal zone under this environmental issue. Only through rigid state policy that

is enforced through law will planners within local government be able to determine

areas vulnerable to sea level rise and ensure the protection of both human settlement

and fragile ecosystems.


Uncharted waters


2.1 Introduction

Global sea level has over the history of our earth fluctuated naturally (with a slight lag)

in accordance with temperature changes in the earth’s atmosphere. Thermal

expansion, glaciations and other factors have been responsible for past global sea

levels dramatically above and below that experienced today. Earth’s environment has

previously been dominated by processes brought about by natural interactions

between the planet’s spheres. We are now entering an era where natural factors of sea

level fluctuation will be strongly influenced by human actions as a result of global

warming. There is still some controversy as to whether our actions have already

influenced sea level sea rises over the last century. However, the future is abundantly

clear, in that our actions are instrumental in the expected dramatic and continual sea

level rises in the not to distant future.

2.2 Definitions and measurements of sea level Mean sea level can be measured at both a global and local scale. Local ‘mean

sea level’ (LMSL) is defined as “the height of the sea with respect to a

benchmark, averaged over a period of time, such as a month or a year, long

enough that fluctuations caused by waves and tides are largely removed”

(Wikipedia Website 2006). LMSL takes into account the tectonic movements of

the earth’s crust, atmospheric pressure, ocean currents and local ocean

temperature changes that may result in different mean sea levels between

localities.

The other and more commonly used measure of sea level at a global scale is

known as global mean sea level (GMSL) and is influenced by ‘eustatic

changes’. Eustatic change or eustasy is defined as “the world wide sea level

regime and its fluctuations, caused by absolute changes in the quantity of sea

water” (Warrick et al 1993:107). The key factors that influence GMSL are

thermal expansion and glaciations which are discussed below in further detail.


GMSL is commonly used by academics as a broad measurement of sea level

rise to highlight the issue on a world-wide scale. However, LMSL provides a

more accurate measurement of sea level at a local scale and therefore allows

a greater understanding of specific impacts region and localities.

There are a number of ways that sea level can be measured. Measurement of

sea level in the earths history has been based on scientific research into

sediment core samples (in wetlands), ice sheets and geological surveys

(Gehrels et al 2005). The natural environment has many indicators that can be

used to ascertain historic sea levels. For example, contours on ice sheets can

be read to determine the age of that ice (and therefore calculate sea level) the

same way tree rings on a tree stump can be read to determine the age of a

tree (Gore 2006).

Recent fluctuations of both LMSL and GMSL have been measured with the

use of tidal gauges. Tidal gauges have been instrumental in determining sea

level fluctuations in the recent past but this system is not without its flaws. In

particular, the location of the tidal gauges results in an inaccurate depiction of

sea level rise in oceans around the globe. This is due to the uneven

distribution of the 229 tidal gauges in 21 locations around the world (refer to

Figure 1), with only 6 located in the southern hemisphere (Bird 1993). As a

result of this, tide gauges are generally more accurate at determining local

fluctuations in sea level. Tidal gauges are now generally regarded as back-up

indicators to determine sea level fluctuations as satellite imagery covers more

and more of the globe and reveals greater depths of data.


Figure 1: Tide gauge stations that have been operating continuously for more than 30 years with the

number referring to the amount of tide gauges within a certain grid.

Source: Bird 1993:31

Predictions of future sea level fluctuations are generally based on satellite imaging and

provided through computer climate modelling, normally Geographic Climate Modellings

(GMCs) (Walsh et al 2004). These GCMs contain many interactions and

approximations, some of which are not totally understood. “Nevertheless they are the

best available tools for the prediction of climate change and their skill at representing

climate system continues to improve” (Walsh et al 2004:590).

2.3 Causes of natural sea level fluctuations

Sea level, throughout the earth’s history has fluctuated in accordance with temperature

changes in the atmosphere. It is through natural process of climate change in the past

that current mean sea levels have been determined. Natural sea level fluctuations

have been predominately influenced by two main natural factors: glaciations and

thermal expansion of the ocean. Both concepts are defined and discussed below.

Glaciations refer to the process of the accumulation of ice on land to form glaciers

(Strahler and Strahler 1999). Glaciers are created by a build up of snow which, when

on land, freezes into ice and accumulates. Glaciers at any scale are frozen water

reservoirs storing water that would have otherwise run-off land and flown into rivers


and the ocean. The state of a glacier is determined by the surrounding temperature of

the earth’s atmosphere. For example, if temperatures are high then glaciers will be

melting, and if temperatures are low then glaciers will be accumulating. This is a

simplistic example provides a general understanding of the intimate relationship

between glaciers and the temperature of the earth’s atmosphere.

The accumulation and ablation of glaciers, as a result of temperature changes

throughout the earth’s history has influenced global sea level fluctuations with sea level

falling in periods of accumulation (i.e. with less water running off into the ocean) and

rising in periods of ablation (i.e. through an increase of water being released into the

ocean). In periods of low temperature glaciers have dominated the earth’s surface.

These periods are known as Ice Ages.

Glaciation is an important process in influencing sea levels around the world however

its influence is minor in comparison to another process; thermal expansion of the

oceans. Walsh et al states that “thermal expansion is the most important component of

global sea level rise” (2004:588). Thermal expansion refers to the heating of the

ocean’s water as a result of increases of temperature in the atmosphere. When the

water heats it expands, increasing the overall volume of the ocean and therefore

raising global sea level. The massive size of the ocean and the volume of water

contained within means that sea level fluctuations from thermal expansion will be

experienced at a delay from temperature changes in the atmosphere. This delay is

known as a ‘thermal lag’ and is said to be in the order of around 30 years2 (Walsh et al

2004, Flannery 2005).

Both glaciation and thermal expansion have been important in determining sea

fluctuations throughout the earth’s history. Each process and therefore the level of sea

level resulting from it, is critically dependent on the temperature of the earth’s

atmosphere. The intimate relationship between the earth’s atmosphere and the sea

levels has been evident throughout time “with ocean levels always fluctuating with

changes in global temperatures” (Titus 1990:1).

2

This timeframe (30 years) refers to the absorption of heat from the atmosphere into the ocean, not the entire

warming of the ocean which takes about 1000 years or more. This period of 30 years is when serious impacts of sea level rise due to temperature changes will start to be experienced (Flannery 2005).


In addition to glaciation (ablution and accumulation) and thermal expansion there are

other more minor factors that have been responsible for fluctuations in sea level.

These additional factors for sea level fluctuation include the Greenland and Antarctic

Ice Sheets (melting and accumulation of ground ice), surface and ground water

storage, and global tectonic effects (Walsh et al 2004). The input of these factors is

considered relatively minor in comparison to the process of thermal expansion and

glaciation.

2.4 Sea level fluctuations throughout the earth’s history

Fluctuations in sea level are intimately linked to fluctuations in global temperature, with

changes in temperature impacting on glaciers and the thermal expansion of the ocean.

This relationship has been witnessed throughout the earth’s history.

An example of this relationship is shown in the period that proceeded the last Ice Age,

approximately 120,000 years ago the global average temperature was slightly warmer

than that of today. This resulted in a global sea level five to six metres higher than it is

today (Houghton 2004). This is in contrast to 18,000 years ago where the world was in

an Ice Age (hence temperatures where substantially colder than today) resulting in a

sea level of approximately 120 metres lower than the current level.

Sea level fluctuations have been a key factor in the formation and separation of

continents and islands over the earth’s history. This was illustrated clearly between

18,000 - 12,000 years ago when sea level rise was so significant that it separated

Tasmania and Papua New Guinea from the Australian mainland as shown in Figure 2

(Bird 1993). This dramatic rise in sea level was a direct result of a periodical increase

in temperature by 5̊C. This temperature rise is known as “the fastest rise recorded in

recent earth history” (Flannery 2005).


Figure 2: Outline of Australia and the islands to the north about 18,000 years ago prior to the Later

Quaternary marine transgression.


After the dramatic sea level rise commencing at the end of the last Ice Age (18,000

years ago), sea level rise has been relatively consistent. For the past 6,000 years sea

level has consistently risen 5 to 10 metres to reach current global sea levels (Aubrey &

Emery 1993). The average rate of sea level rise has been between 0.14–0.1cm/year.

This period of consistent sea level rise has been a result of the earth’s atmospheric

temperature remaining relatively stable in this period.

In the last century, the sea level has risen 10 to 25 centimetres (i.e. an average of

0.1- 0.25cm/year) (Titus 1990). An estimate of the contribution that each factor of

sea level fluctuation (discussed above) has on current global sea level in the past

century is shown in Figure 3 and 4. These figures reinforce the dominance of both

thermal expansion and glaciers as key factors in the fluctuation of sea level.


Component Low Medium High

Thermal expansion 3 5 7

Glaciers/small ice caps 2 3 4

Surface water and ground water (terrestrial) storage (not climate change)

-11 -3.5 4

Greenland ice sheet (20th century)

0 0.5 1

Antarctic ice sheet (20th century)

-2 -1 0

Ice sheets-adjustments since last Ice Age

0 2.5 5

Other 0 0.3 0.5

Total -8 7 22

Observed 10 15 20

Figure 3: Walsh et al’s estimated contributions to sea level rise over the twentieth century (in cm)

Source: Walsh et al 2004:589

Figure 4: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) estimated contributions to sea level

rise over the twentieth century (in cm).

Source: IPCC 2001:200

In particular, these figures show that thermal expansion has been the highest

contributor to sea level rise, with glaciers and ice caps also having significant

contributions. Together, thermal expansion and glaciers and ice caps resulted in a

positive increase in sea level of 4 centimetres by the year 1990. This is in contrast to

the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet which is relatively minor, and the


contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet which has reduced sea level and somewhat

offset rises from other sources as shown in both figures.

Scientific information is inconclusive at the moment to whether sea level rises over

the last century have been as a result of natural or human induced climate change

(i.e. brought about by global warming). For example, studies were undertaken by

Woodworth, Gornitz, Solow and Douglas separately to determine whether sea level

rise has been a result of natural or human induced influences. From these studies

“no author found conclusive evidence of a global acceleration of sea level, especially

compared to what is predicted to accompany future global warming” (Douglas

2001:61).

2.5 Uncharted waters: Current projections of future sea level rise

Regardless of the controversy surrounding the more recent rises in sea level, it is

abundantly clear that future sea level rise will be a direct result of human actions.

The future of sea level rise is therefore characterised by human influences which will

accelerate natural processes such as the ablation of glaciers and the thermal

expansion of the ocean. As a result, sea level will rise dramatically over the next few

hundred years in comparison to historical rises that have been experienced over tens

of thousands of years.

Projections of future rise to the GMSL are currently provided in ranges. This is a

result of the uncertainty which arises from an incomplete understanding of both the

effects of greenhouse gases on the environment and also the extent to which these

greenhouse gas emissions will continue in the future. This is considered reasonable

in that we are entering an era of ‘uncharted waters’ with no past models of sea level

rise influenced by greenhouse gas emissions to this extent to benchmark against.

Initiatives such as the Kyoto protocol which may or may not result in reductions to

greenhouse gas emissions in the future are also unknown impacts (Oberthur and Ott

1999).


It is this uncertainty that results in sea level projections being shown in high, middle

and low scenarios based on future green house gas emissions and climate

sensitivity. Nicholls and Lowe (2006) have developed a graph that provides an

estimate of the three ranges of future sea level rise in accordance with climate

sensitivity (Figure 5). This figure illustrates substantial ranges in results. For

example unmitigated emissions will result in a sea level rise of approximately 25cm

in low climate sensitivity and in excess of 110cm in high climate sensitivity by the

year 2100.

Figure 5: Unmitigated and stabilisation scenarios for global mean rise in sea level including effects of

climate sensitivity. In each ‘triplet of lines’, unmitigated emissions is the highest; with the two other

lines based on minor mitigation and extreme mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions.

Source: Nichols and Lowe 2006:197

Another important element of Figure 5 is that we can see a distinct increase in sea

level rise in all scenarios from the year 2050. This is important as it is seen as the

turning point in sea level rise. At this time the thermal lag of the ocean will begin to

catch up with temperature increases in the earth’s atmosphere; therefore the rate of

sea level rise will accelerate through increased thermal expansion (Walsh et al

2004).

Notwithstanding the high variability between expected emissions and climate

sensitivity, one estimate for rises in sea level has generally been adopted by

scholars and scientists- that developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC). The IPCC is an international organisation established by the United

Nations Environmental Programme and the World Meteorological Organisation in


1988 to “assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the

scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the

scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and

options for adaptation and mitigation” (IPCC Website 2006). The global nature of this

organisation, its impartiality, and the depth of research undertaken is the reason that

its predictions for sea level rise are regarded as the most accurate in the world.

The most current IPCC report released in 2001 estimates that sea level will rise in

the order of 9-88cm by the year 2100 (IPCC 2001). However, this range like all future

predictions includes a level of uncertainty as discussed above (refer to Figure 6). It

is anticipated that this uncertainty will greatly reduce in the future as technology

becomes increasingly advanced in predicting climate change scenarios and we get

closer to the year of the estimates. However it is important to realise like all future

predictions whether it be in science, technology, government and so on, uncertainty

about the future can never be reduced to zero (i.e. what Wildavsky calls the principle

of irreducible uncertainty’) (Barnett 2001:981).

“There are many uncertainties in our predictions particularly with regard to the timing, magnitude and regional patterns of climate change, due to our incomplete understanding of:

� sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, which affect predictions of future

concentrations,

� clouds, which strongly influence the magnitude of climate - change,

� oceans, which influence the timing and patterns of climate change,

� polar ice-sheets, which affect predictions of sea level rise.

These processes are already partially understood, and we are confident that the scientific uncertainties can be reduced by further research, However, the complexity of the system means that we cannot rule out surprises”.

Figure 6: The IPCC’s reasons for uncertainty

Source: Houghton 2004:217

Although the IPCC’s estimate of a maximum of around one metre sea level rise is

regarded as the most precise and accurate projection for future sea level rise, it

should be noted that it does not incorporate all aspects of potential sea level rise in

the future (as indicated in Figure 6). For example, this estimate “does not embrace


the full range of changes in the major ice sheets, particularly the maritime West

Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) which contains enough water to raise global sea level by

up to 6m” (Nicholls and Lowe 2006:197).

In addition to this, the figure does not include the likelihood of the melting of floating ice

shelves which, although not directly adding to sea level rise, clears the way for glaciers

to retreat directly into the ocean. The melting of these ice shelves is relatively

uncertain and can happen rapidly as has already been shown in the 1600 square

kilometres of the Larson A ice shelf which suddenly disintegrated in 39 days during

1994-95 and more recently the 3245 square kilometres of the Larson B ice shelf which

disintegrated in 41 days in 2002 (refer to Figure 7) (Pittcock 2005).

Figure 7: Satellite images of the break-up of the Larsen B ice shelf in 2002 with the left image as

appeared on 31 January 2002 and the right image as appeared on 5 March 2002.

Source: Pittcock 2005:98

Within the estimates of sea level rise there is still a relative element of uncertainty.

However the IPCC range provides a suitable level which should be used as a

precautionary principle to influence planning and management of the coastal zone.

Generally the IPCC measurement should be used as best case scenario to inform

planning and management of the coastal zone with an absolute worst case scenario

being evident in the collapse of the WAIS.


2.6 Conclusion

Humans have placed themselves in a precarious position forcing natural factors to

dramatically increase and raise sea level in the future. At this point our past actions

are irreversible meaning that sea level rise is inevitable. The exact magnitude of this

could range from 1 to 6 metres in the next 100 years based on our further emission

of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and the way in which the world’s climate

system reacts. If this issue is ignored due to uncertainty, then there will be serious

impacts resulting in the possible destruction of natural ecosystems, disruption of

human settlement and loss of human life.

Chapter 3 of this thesis builds on our understanding of the expected sea level rise,

identifying impacts that this could have on ecosystems and human settlement.


Impacts of sea level rise


3.1 Introduction

The predicted rises in sea level will be experienced through a number of impacts,

including the inundation of coastal areas, increased likelihood of flooding in storm

surge occurrences and substantial increases to the erosion of coastlines. These

impacts will be enough to adversely affect many ecosystems including beaches,

coastal wetlands and coral reefs. In some areas these ecosystems will be forced to

reduce in size and in others they will be lost completely. These ecosystem losses will

inturn impact on human settlement reducing natural defence against rising sea level in

periods of storm surge. The degree at which the predicted sea level rise is expected to

have on nations varies, with some noticeably more vulnerable to this environment

issue than others. Even conservative sea level rise predictions will devastate some

nations, resulting in the loss of land and displacement of many people.

3.2 General impacts of sea level rise

Inundation

Inundation is the most obvious impact of sea level rise and refers to the permanent

submergence of low lying land on the coast (Warrick et al 1993). Inundation will

result in the “conversion of dry land to wetland and the conversion of wetlands to

open water” (Titus 1990:2). For example, consider a bay with a tide range of 1 metre

and an area of dry land that is currently 75 centimetres above sea level, i.e. 25 cm

above high water mark. If the sea rose 25 centimetres overnight the land would be

flooded at high tide and therefore converted into wetland, while a 125 centimetres

rise would convert it to open water (Titus 1990) (refer to Figure 8).

a) b) Figure 8: Inundation. a) normal scenario, b) sea level rises, wetland retreats converting dry land to

wetland and wetland to open water.

Source: Author 2006


Figure 8 shows the response of wetlands to inundation which is to retreat inland. As

sea level rises more land area will become inundated forcing wetlands to retreat inland,

hence converting dry land into wetlands. This wetland retreat will impact on human

activities and development. Figure 8 provides a simplistic example of how inundation

reduces dry land and therefore impacts on human settlement.

Storm surge flooding

The term storm surge refers to “elevated sea levels resulting from extreme atmospheric

winds and low pressure” (McInnes et al 2003:vi). Storm surges are encountered in

storms and extreme storm events such as cyclones and typhoons. Storm surges result

in the temporary flooding of coastal areas. Figure 9 shows how storm surges further

exacerbate sea levels on the coast. Therefore, a rising sea level will further the risk of

flooding of coastal areas in storm periods providing a “higher base upon which storm

surges can build” which will increase the temporary flooding of coastal areas and

erosion of the beach profile (Titus 1990:4).

Figure 9: The contribution of Storm surges exacerbating sea levels on the coast

Source: Mc Innes et al 2003:2


Erosion

Erosion refers to the “physical removal of material by waves and currents from the

beach profile” (Douglas et al 2001:89). An increase in sea level would permit waves, in

normal conditions and especially in storm surges, to reach the upper part of beaches

increasing the transportation of sand away from the beach and ultimately reducing the

size of sand dunes (Titus et al 1991). This reduction of the beach profile would allow

for waves to penetrate further into the coastal zone threatening both ecosystems and

human settlement.

The impacts of erosion beneath a rising sea are generally calculated at a local scale.

This is because individual beaches have differing features and morphologies that have

an impact on the rate at which they will be susceptible to erosion. This has been noted

further by Swift, suggesting that coastlines respond to sea level rise in a variety of

ways depending on sand grain size, wave conditions and sediment supply (1976).

3.3 Vulnerable ecosystems

Beaches

The impacts of sea level rise will be most evident at the beach as this is the interface

between the ocean and the land. The main impacts of a rising sea level on the beach3

will be inundation, but more importantly, erosion.

The calculation of the loss of material from the beach profile, as a result of a rising sea

level on coastal erosion is illustrated in most scientific literature through the use of the

‘Brunn Rule’, created by Peter Brunn in 1962 (Kont et al 2003). The Brunn Rule is

based on a “balancing of sediment in the on and offshore direction in response to sea

level rise” (Douglas et al 2001:190). Under the Brunn Rule the beach profile reaches a

new equilibrium through shifts landward and upward resulting in both an erosion of the

beach and nearshore area and the deposit of sediment on the lower part of the beach

profile as shown in Figure 10.

3 Beach refers to the thick, wedge-shaped accumulation of sand, gravel, or cobbles in the zone of breaking waves (Strahler and Strahler 1999).


Figure 10 shows the Brunn Rule which states: “that a sea level rise will lead to erosion

of the beach and removal of a volume of sand (v1) seaward to be deposited (v2) in

such a way as to restore the initial traverse profile landward of D, the other boundary of

nearshore sand deposits. The coastline will retreat (R) until stability is restored after

the sea level rise comes to an end. The coastline thus recedes further than it would if

submergence were not accompanied by erosion“(Bird 1993:57). This beach erosion is

a result of waves crashing higher on the beach profile (in normal conditions and storm

surges) and not caused purely through inundation of the beach by sea level rises.

Figure 10: Beach erosion under a rising sea level: the Brunn Rule


Notwithstanding the importance of the Brunn Rule it has been seen by some authors

as outdated and too simplistic to accurately determine beach erosion under sea level

increases. For example Cooper and Pilkey state that the “Brunn Rule is a ‘one model

fits all’ approach, which is unsuitable for a highly complex sedimentary environment

such as the nearshore zone [in which it is used] “(2004:161). The Brunn Rule should

therefore be used as a more simplistic approach to calculating the retreat of beaches

through erosion under rising sea levels, and can be used as a framework for computer

modelling of erosion losses to the beach profile when sea level rises (Hennecke 2004).

Wetlands

Coastal wetlands include saltmarshes, mangroves and intertidal areas located

between the highest tide of the year and mean sea level (Titus 1991). Wetlands

provide habitats for an abundance of flora and fauna which are specifically adapted to

the natural conditions, such as the salinity that this ecosystem provides. This

ecosystem will be threatened under an accelerated sea level rise through temporary

flooding by storm surges and permanent flooding or inundation.


Wetlands are at serious risk from an accelerated sea level rise in the future as “their

location is intimately linked to sea level” (Nichols et al 1999:75). This intimate link is

through the collection of sediment which allows wetlands to produce peat, enabling

them to stay just above sea level. Figure 11 illustrates this process over thousands of

years. As shown in Figure 11 and highlighted by most authors, it is expected that

wetlands’ ability to remain above sea level could not keep pace with a significant

acceleration in sea level rise (Kearny & Stevenson 1991).

Figure 11: The accumulation of peat has protected sea level rise from inundating wetlands in the past.

This process will not be able to keep up with accelerated sea level rise in the future.

Source: Douglas et al 2001:215

The expected rises in sea level and wetlands’ inability to remain above sea level will

result in inundation of many wetland ecosystems. This inundation will result in the loss

of delicate wetland ecosystems with plant life physically drowning and animal species

(particularly fish) forced to retreat upstream or perish due to increased salinity levels. It

is therefore anticipated that there will be a substantial loss of wetland ecosystems

under projected future sea level rises.

Another problem for the survival of wetlands under a projected sea level rise is based

on human disturbance. Wetlands will naturally retreat inland as sea level rises (as

shown in Figure 11, above). In some areas “direct losses of coastal wetland due to

sea level rise can be offset by inland wetland migration (upland conversion to wetland)”

(Nichols et al 1999:75). However, past and present development has reduced the


extent to which wetlands can migrate inland. This means that the inland migration of

wetlands in many areas will not be possible, resulting in a loss of the wetlands

ecosystem under rising sea levels.

The loss of wetlands will have wide reaching impacts on the environment. Nicholls et al

state that loss in wetlands will impact on other sectors and functions including food

production (loss of nursery area for fisheries), flood and storm protection (storm surges

penetrating further inland), waste treatment and nutrient recycling, and as a habitat for

wildlife (1999). With the current rate of wetland loss, at rate of 0.5 to 1.5 % per year

due to human activities (such as shoreline protection, blocking of sediment sources,

land reclamation, aquiculture development and oil, gas and water extraction) it is clear

that these ecosystems are in danger (Houghton 2004). The future rises to sea level are

expected to seriously increase this rate and therefore devastate the wetland

ecosystems.

Coral reefs

Coral reefs are an important ecosystem in terms of their biodiversity and also their

value to humans for tourism purposes. As stated by Flannery: “of all the ocean’s

ecosystems, none is more diverse nor more replete with beauty of colour and form and

none is more endangered by climate change” (2005:104). It is anticipated that

projected accelerations in sea level rise will inundate coral reefs resulting in substantial

losses around the globe.

Corals’ survival is dependent on varying levels of sunlight-depending on the species of

coral. Therefore, a key survival adaptation of coral has been to grow upwards as sea

level rises. This has been apparent throughout the earths history with sea level rises

reflected through vertical coral growth. The survival of coral reefs depends on the rate

at which sea level rises: with a slow rise stimulating the growth of coral and an

accelerating sea level rise leading to the drowning and death of some corals; and

hence the collapse of the entire reef ecosystem (Bird 1993).


3.4 Impacts of sea level rise on human settlement

General Impacts on human settlement

The environmental impacts of a rising sea level on ecosystems will result in a range

of socio-economic effects on humans which have been identified by McLean and

Tsyban (2001) and shown in Figure 12. The most serious and obvious of these

impacts (shown in Figure 12) is the increased flood risk and potential loss of life.

Pittcock states that even for the “more modest sea level rises expected by 2100

under the IPCC 2001 report scenarios (refer to Chapter 2), 50 to 100 million people

may be subject to coastal flooding” (2005:128). This will have direct impacts on

development in the coastal zone. The planning of coastal communities has generally

been based on the likelihood of flooding, in that coastal zones that are less flood

prone will contain more housing than those that are highly susceptible to consistent

flooding.

increased loss of property

increased loss of coastal habitats

increased flood risk and potential loss of life

damage to coastal protection works and other infrastructure

loss of renewable and subsistence resources

loss of tourism, recreation, and transportation functions

loss of non-monetary cultural resources and values

impacts on agriculture and aquaculture and through decline in soil and water quality

Figure 12: Socio-economic impacts of sea level rise Source: McLean and Tsyban 2001:345

Figure 13 provides a representation of the standard storm surge flooding model that

is used in planning throughout the world (Nicholls 1999). We can see that there are

zones based on the likelihood of an area to flood in relation to storm surges, i.e.

once/per year to once/1000 years. This figure also shows a sea wall that has been

constructed to protect against the one in 10 year flood occurrence. Responses to sea

level rise such as this sea wall are discussed in further detail in Chapter 4 of this

thesis.


Sea level rises expected in the near future will dramatically raise this flood level

increasing the likelihood of storm surge flooding for each zone. This will have varying

impacts on nations depending on the location of housing and infrastructure and also

the topography and morphology of the coastline. These individual impacts are

discussed below in further detail.

Figure 13: The coastal floodplain, including different levels of sea water flooding in storm surge

occurrences.

Source: Nicholls 1999:72.

Vulnerable nations

The impacts that sea level rise will have vary around the world, with some nations

being at extreme risk as a result of their geographical features (e.g. Bangladesh,

Thailand, Australia and the Netherlands). This will result in mass evacuations and

substantial loss of human life in these countries.

The IPCC has developed a vulnerability assessment for nations regarding the impacts

of climate change (2001). From this assessment, nations that are likely to be most

vulnerable4 under sea level rises can be identified. The vulnerability of a nation to sea

level rise depends upon the geomorphology, environmental dynamics of a particular

coastline, and the ability of the nation to adapt (Hebert and Taplin 2006). Vulnerable

nations identified by the IPCC include: the Netherlands, Bangladesh, Islands in the

Pacific (such as the Maldives and Tuvalu), Thailand, China and Australia. Although

these nations have been identified as particularly vulnerable, the impacts of sea level

4 Here vulnerability refers to the topography and environmental features of a nation that make it susceptible to sea

level rises. This vulnerability does not take into account existing or proposed defences that have been constructed in the nation. These defences will be discussed in Chapter 4 of this thesis.


rise will also have a substantial impact on other nations. These impacts will be felt

directly through flooding, erosion and cliff recession. The global nature of society also

ensures that the affects of global sea level rise although not directly affecting a nation,

may still effect other countries as a result of impacts felt in other vulnerable nations

(e.g. through international trade).

A selection of these vulnerable nations and the impacts they might experience are

discussed below. The impacts of sea level rise on vulnerable nations once again

promotes the importance of sea level rise as an environmental issue of global scale.

The Netherlands

The Netherlands is one of the most vulnerable nations to sea level rise with a

coastline of over 450 kilometres long and the majority of the land area already below

sea level (CIA Fact Book 2006). This location below sea level is a result of coastal

subsidence which is a continuing characteristic of the Netherlands coastal areas

(Bird 1993). The impacts of a rising sea level on the Netherlands will be through

direct inundation of a substantial proportion of the nation (as shown in Figure 14)

which will be further compounded by storm surge impacts. Figure 14 shows the

potential devastating impacts on the Netherlands with around 20% (i.e. above 6700

sqm) of the total land mass (33,883 sqm) including the capital Amsterdam inundated

under a 1m sea level rise.

In addition to this it is noted that should the West Antarctic Ice Sheet melt, prompting a

six metre sea level rise (as discussed in Chapter 2 of this thesis), the Netherlands

would be further inundated with even more dramatic loss of land containing both built

and natural environments.


current

1m sea level rise

6m sea level rise

Figure 14: Netherlands sea level rise scenarios.

Source: Google Earth 2006


Bangladesh

Bangladesh is regarded as the most vulnerable country in the world to sea level rise as

a result of direct inundation of a high proportion of its 133,910sqm of land mass

(Douglas et al 2001). Within this nation at least 16 million people live on the flood

prone delta areas to the south of Bangladesh (as shown in Figure 15).

Figure 15: Land at risk in Bangladesh from a 1m sea level rise.

Source: Douglas et al 2001:201

A one metre rise in sea level will result in the inundation of the majority of the southern

portion of Bangladesh as shown in Figure 15. Douglas et al states that this could result

in the inundation of 16% of the land currently used for rice production displacing 16

million people in the process (2001). In the likelihood of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

melting this displacement would increase as further areas are inundated.

There is however other more pressing issues for Bangladesh under sea level rise

predictions, that of storm surge flooding and coastal erosion. The nation already

experiences significant impacts from storm surges brought about by constant cyclones

attacking the Bay of Bengal (refer to Figure 15). Ali states that “the country’s low and


flat terrain is easily flooded by amplified surge waters, thus converting the coastal land

area into a vast sea” (1999: 112). Any rise in sea level is expected to provide a higher

base on which storm surges can build upon resulting in an increase of the area flooded

and therefore displacing people and posing a greater risk to life.

In addition to this Bangladesh is also currently highly susceptible to coastal erosion as

a result of a constant barrage of waves on the coastline in storm surge conditions and

heavy discharges into the sea from the nations’ river systems (Ali 1999). The amount

of coastal erosion has been linked to sea level rise with an average recession of about

87 times that of sea level rise (i.e. recession of 0.87cm occurs per 1cm of sea level

rise). The impact of a 1m sea level rise will therefore result in substantial recession of

beaches in Bangladesh in the order of 87m.

Australia

Australia is the world largest island with a total land mass of 7.6 million square

kilometres (CIA Fact Book 2006). The Australian coastline stretches over 25,000

kilometres with varying coastal ecosystems such as sandy beaches, coral reefs and

mangrove wetlands. Of the 20.2 million people who live in Australia 85% live in the

coastal zone (i.e. within one kilometre from the ocean) (Walsh et al 2004).

The topography of Australia which is generally above sea level (except for parts of

South Australia such as Lake Eyre) means that a sea level rise of one metre will

directly inundate only a few areas along the coastline as shown in Figure 16. The

major impacts of a one metre sea level rise in Australia will be felt through coastal

erosion and a rising of the mean high tide mark on which storm surges can build upon

(McInnes et al 2003). Both these processes will further exacerbate existing problems

of coastal development including housing and infrastructure fronting the foreshore

areas. Areas of concern include many parts of Sydney and the Queensland city of

Cairns (which is already flood prone and subject to annual cyclones) (Mc Innes et al

2003).

The level of inundation may seem minor in a one metre sea level rise scenario for

Australia but should the West Antarctic Ice Sheet melt there would be devastating

impacts compounding erosion and storm surge issues with direct inundation of major


cities and populated coastlines. Figure 17 shows the impacts of a six metre sea level

rise on the Sydney CBD. Here we can see a direct inundation of coastal areas and

foreshore areas located along the Parramatta River. Particular suburbs and the

Sydney International Airport would be permanently submerged.

Although only small areas of Australia will be directly inundated by an expected sea

level rise of 1m storm surge impacts and resulting increased erosion ensure that this

issue will need to be addressed in the near future. Like Bangladesh, Australia has an

extremely high level of coastal erosion in relation to sea level rise and therefore is

under serious threat from this environmental issue. The CSIRO highlights this, stating

that for every one metre of sea level rise, the Australian coast will erode by around 50

to 100 metres (2003).

current

1m sea level rise

Figure 16: Australian sea level rise scenarios. Source: Google Earth 2006


Figure 17: Sydney after 6m sea level rise (under the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet).

Source: Flannery 2006:4

3.5 Conclusion

The impact of a rising sea level will soon be upon us, resulting in a reduction of and or

complete loss of coastal ecosystems. The rise in sea level will both temporarily and

permanently flood coastal areas destroying coastal development and, in the process,

displacing hundreds of thousands of people around the world. No nation will be spared

the effects of this environmental issue. Our only hope is to acknowledge the potential

impacts and plan accordingly to protect both ecosystems and communities.

Chapter 4 of this thesis identifies and discusses current planning legislation and policy

that have been created by the NSW government to protect the coastal zone. This

chapter also makes specific reference to elements within planning policy developed to

address the impacts of a rising sea level.


Planning for sea level rise


4.1 Introduction

Sea level rise is inevitable and therefore adaptive measures will be imperative to the

future of planning and management of the coastal zone. Planning for sea level rise is

underpinned by the decision of whether to surrender land to the sea or install hard

structures to hold back the sea. It is the social and economic issues raised by these

planning responses that form planning policy within nations throughout the world. This

environmental issue has global status and therefore should be implemented in all levels of

government around the world. Within Australia the management and planning of the

coastal zone is guided by individual state government legislation, policies and strategies.

In Australia it is the state governments that are responsible for the preparation of

legislation, policies and strategies to address the impacts of sea level rise. It is therefore

the strength of the state government’s policies and plans that will determine the extent at

which sea level rise will impact on ecosystems and human settlement at a national, state

and local level within the Australian context.

4.2 Human responses to sea level rise

Planning and management responses to sea level rise in the past have been underpinned

by one “fundamental question; whether to retreat or hold back the sea” (Titus 1990:10).

These responses have varying advantages and disadvantages in terms of damage to

ecosystems and socio-economic impacts on communities.

‘Retreat’ as a response to sea level rise relates to the surrendering of land to the sea

as sea level rises. This response has traditionally been restricted to undeveloped

coastal areas containing little infrastructure. However, as the impacts of a rising sea

level become more severe, it is anticipated that this response will be employed in a

number of regions around the world. In most cases retreat will be engineered to

gradually surrender properties to the sea reducing the social impacts associated with

the loss of property.

The other response to sea level rise is to protect coastal development through the

erection of hard structures such as sea walls, dykes and groynes along the coastline.

The advantage of protection is that it “does not require major institutional changes


regarding land use” (Walsh et al 2002:36). The issue of erecting sea walls is that it is

beneficial to property as it provides protection from the sea however this is at the

detriment of the environment. This is because hard sea defences deflect wave energy

back out to sea and in the process displace this energy increasing erosion of the sea

floor (refer to Figure 18). This alters natural coastal processes resulting in a steeper

slope of the beach (shown in Figure 18) and eventually leading to an undermining of

the sea wall prompting further repair and even replacement (Titus 1991).

a) b)

Figure 18: Wave energy dispersal a) without the presence of a hard sea defence, b) with the presence

of a hard sea defence (sea wall). The arrow in b) shows the refraction of the wave energy subsequent

to impacting the sea wall.

Source: Author 2006

The economic decision of whether to retreat or defend land is generally based on

whether “the cost of the coastline exceeds the values of the structures that are

threatened by erosion and submergence” (Bird 1993:125). However, in practice, this

economic equation is not always used as a result of the deep attachment that

communities have to their land. The decision making process of whether to retreat or

protect will require an understanding of both the impacts of sea level rise and the

community attachment to nearby land.


4.3 A question of scale

The planning and management of the impacts of a rising sea level must be undertaken

through a cooperative approach by all levels of government. The role of the federal and

state government in planning for sea level rise is normally reserved strictly to that of a

facilitator in support of local government. This is because local government is the only

level that can accurately develop strategies “to deal with sea level rise because of the

very heterogeneous nature of the coastline” (Walsh et al 2004:593). However this is

not to say that federal and state government are not instrumental in planning and

managing the impacts of sea level rise. Depending on the structure of the nations

government it is either the state and or the federal government which provides the

guidance for planning at a local level. Therefore the extent at which planning for sea

level rise will be successful at a local level is underpinned by the extent at which it has

been considered a state and or federal level.

The following sections of this Chapter identify the policy that has been developed by

the key guiding level of government in Bangladesh (the federal government) and more

importantly within Australia, the state (NSW the context of this thesis) in the support of

local planning and management of the impacts of sea level rise on the coastal zone.

4.4 Intergovernmental and international coastal planning & management

Planning for sea level rise is still in quite early stages around the world with concerned

nations either implementing and preparing plans that specifically relate to their nation

or taking a coordinated approach and developing intergovernmental agreements or

plans between a number of concerned nations.

An example of both of these levels of coastal planning and management is evident in

Bangladesh. With the impacts of sea level rise expected to devastate some 16% of

Bangladesh’s crop land and displace some 13 million people the national government

has entered an intergovernmental agreement known as the South Asian Seas Action

Plan (SASAP). The SASAP came into force in February of 1997 and includes, in

addition to Bangladesh, Republic of India, Republic of Maldives, Islamic Republic of

Pakistan and Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka (United Nations


Environmental Program Website 2006). The aims of this document are to establish a

cooperative approach between nations to establish a system of Integrated Coastal

Zone Management (ICZM). It is anticipated that the cooperative nations will be able to

prosper from other nations’ investigations and ensure that actions at a national level

benefit the entire cooperative.

The framework provided in the SASAP for ICZM has allowed Bangladesh to develop

specific coastal policy to addresses impacts that are relevant to the nation. The key

policies that guide coastal planning and management in Bangladesh are the Coastal

Zone Policy 2005 and the Draft Coastal Development Strategy. These policies contain

specific planning and management initiatives including the decision to relocate

communities or construct defences in response to rising sea levels in certain coastal

zones. This policy provides direction for the development of more specific policies at a

regional level and promotes studies into the specific impacts of sea level rise at a local

level.

The SASAP has had a beneficial impact on its member countries with most nations

either already prepared or currently preparing ICZMs. We can see that Bangladesh in

particular has prepared a ICZM as discussed above which can be directly credited to

the structure and framework pioneered by the SASAP. Both the Coastal Zone Policy

2005 and the Draft Coastal Development Strategy are in early stages and therefore

their success in coastal management and planning will be determined in the future.

4.5 National coastal planning within Australia

Coastal planning in Australia at a national scale like Bangladesh is based on a

framework that promotes a cooperative approach between states. The Australian

Government’s Natural Resource Management Ministerial Council released the National

Cooperative Approach to Integrated Coastal Zone Management (NCAICZM) in early

2006. The NCAICZM have been prepared to directly address the continued

environmental decline of the Australia coastal zone identified in The State of the

Environment Report 2001 (Natural Resource Management Ministerial Council 2006).

The document makes specific reference to the importance of addressing the impacts of


climate change, in particular sea level rise. The NCAICZM provides a number of

actions to gain a better understanding of the impacts of climate change on the coastal

zone as shown in Figure 19.

Objective: Improve understanding of the impacts of climate change on the coastal zone Actions to implement the objective Identify international best practice and national research and response priorities for understanding potential climate change impacts in the coastal zone. Build a national ‘picture’ of coastal zone areas that are particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts to better understand risks and interactions with other stresses in the coastal zone. Undertake modelling, in line with state and territory priorities, at regional scale to inform coastal zone management, in response to climate change scenarios, on issues such as:

Sea level rise and foreshore change, � Estuary and wetland response (including salt marsh), � Wave, cyclone, fire and flood intensity and frequency, � Structural responses (coastal infrastructure), and � Change to distribution and lifecycles of affected species and ecological

communities.

Figure 19: Objective and actions of the National Cooperative Approach to Integrated Coastal Zone

Management in relation to planning and management of climate change in Australia.

Source: National Cooperative Approach to Integrated Coastal Zone Management 2006:38

This Management Plan aims at providing a national approach to planning for the

impacts of climate change on the coastal zone. The success of this policy therefore is

based on the cooperation of state governments of Australia in providing accurate

information to the federal government where it can be tallied and condensed into a

national cooperative approach to planning for the impacts of climate change and in

particular sea level rise.

4.6 Planning and management in NSW

Coastal planning and management within NSW is guided by a number of interrelated

Acts, policies, strategies, manuals and guidelines (an outline of these policies and their

interrelationships is shown in Figure 20). The most important documents in terms of

guiding planning and management of the coastal zone are the Coastal Protection Act

1979, NSW Coastal Policy 1997 and State Environmental Planning Policy No 71-

Coastal Protection (SEPP 71). It is these policies and legislation which all other coastal

management and planning documents in NSW are based. The legislation, policies and

strategies aimed at protecting the coastal zone have been developed by a number of


agencies including the Department of Planning, the Department of Environment and

Heritage and the Sydney Coastal Councils Group. This legislation, policies and

strategies are the guiding force in the determination of the design of the coastal zone in

NSW at all levels of government.

Coastal Protection Act 1979

Environmental Planning & Assessment Act 1979

Local Government Act 1993

SEPP 71- Coastal Protection

NSW Coastal Policy 1997

Coastal Design Guidelines for NSW

SEPP 14-Coastal

Wetlands

SEPP (Major Projects)

NSW Coastline Management Manual

Sydney Regional Coastal

Management Strategy

NSW Coastline Hazard Policy

Regional Strategies

Figure 20: Acts, policies, strategies, manuals and guidelines relating to coastal planning and

management in NSW and their interrelationships.

Source: Author 2006

Coastal planning and management in Sydney is generally carried out in isolation from

the rest of the state as a result of the high density of population and housing built within

the coastal zone and differing natural hazards in this area.


The primary legislation for Coastal Planning in NSW is both the Environmental

Planning and Assessment Act 1979 (EP & A Act) and the Coastal Protection Act 1979

(CP Act). The EP & A Act is responsible for guiding all development in NSW including

the creation and implementation of environmental planning instruments development

assessment. The EP & A Act was recently amended on the 16 July 2005 to include

Part 3A which relates to the development of major infrastructure and other projects.

This Part of the EP & A Act delineates the Minister as the consent authority in certain

projects, which can include coastal development applications in certain areas. The

definition of whether a project is to be included in Part 3A is determined by this Part

and also through other State Environmental Planning Policies (SEPPs) such as the

State Environmental Planning Policy (Major Projects) 2005 which is discussed in

further detail below.

The CP Act operates in isolation from the EP & A Act. The CP Act has a more

ecological function than that of the EP & A Act aiming at the protection and

enhancement of “ecosystems, ecological process and biological diversity” in the

coastal zone (NSW Parliament 1979:Clause 3). Clause 4 and 4A of the CP Act

provides the definition of the coastal zone5 (refer to Figure 21) and maps outlining the

coastal zone. This definition is incorporated in coastal planning policies and strategies

such as the NSW Coastal Policy 1997, State Environmental Planning Policy No. 71-

Coastal Protection and the Sydney Regional Coastal Management Strategy.

The CP Act provides direction to the supervision of the coastal zone (Clause 38) which

is based on the likelihood of a development proposal to adversely impact on the

ecology of the coastal zone. If the proposal is likely to adversely impact on the coastal

zone the CP Act stipulates that it must be assessed in concurrence with the Minister.

This clause aims at providing further safeguard to degradation of the coastal zone

assuming that, in the relevant circumstance the State (Minister) will further scrutinise

Councils’ assessment of development within the coastal zone.

5 The coastal zone has subsequently been extended through a planning circular on 18 November 2005(NSW

Government 2005). The coastal zone has been extended to include another 13 local government areas in relation to the implementation of NSW Coastal Policy 1997, SEPP 71 and the Coastal Design Guidelines.


The coastal zone means:

� the area of land and the waters that lie between the western boundary of the coastal zone (as shown on the maps outlining the coastal zone) and the landward boundary of the coastal waters of the State, and

� the seabed (if any) and the subsoil beneath, and the airspace above, the areas referred to above.

� The coastal waters of the State extend, generally, to 3 nautical miles from the coastline of the State.

� the determination of the western boundary of the area to be included in the coastal zone is:

o the boundary is to be generally one kilometre landward of the western boundary of the coastal waters of the State,

o the boundary is to be generally one kilometre landward around any bay, estuary, coastal lake or lagoon,

o the boundary is to follow the length of any coastal river inland generally at a distance of one kilometre from each bank of the river:

• to one kilometre beyond the limit of any recognised mangroves on or associated with the river, or

• if there are no such recognised mangroves—to one kilometre beyond the tidal limit of the river,

• the boundary is to be shown to the nearest cadastral boundary or easily recognisable physical boundary (determined in consultation with relevant councils)

Figure 21: Definition of Coastal Zone in the Coastal Protection Act 1979

Source: Coastal Protection Act 1979: Clause 4 & 4A

Another one of the primary functions of the CP Act in relation to coastal planning in

NSW is Clause 55B which prompts the need for local Councils, which have areas

within the coastal zone, to prepare Management Plans if directed by the Minister. The

Management Plans can be cooperative between Council areas (i.e. cover a number of

Council areas) and are to be prepared in accordance with the NSW Coastline

Management Manual as stipulated in Section 733 of the Local Government Act 1993.

The EP & A Act and CP Act do not provide any specific objectives or guidelines in

relation to climate change and the impacts of sea level rise. The Acts merely set out

direction for the creation of planning policies plans and to aid decision making to plan

and manage the coastal zone of NSW. State and Local Government are therefore

responsible to prepare policies in accordance with these Acts.

The NSW Coastline Management Manual was prepared in 1990 by the Australian

Government’s Department of Heritage to provide a framework for the implementation

of plan making for local governments (in accordance with Clause 55B of the CP Act).


Included in this Manual is the NSW Coastline Hazard Policy that aims to “reduce the

impact of coastal hazards on individual owners and occupiers, and to reduce private

and public losses relating from natural coastal forces” (1990:2). This document urges

the NSW State Government to ‘lead by example’ to allow for integration by local

government. The Policy also identifies the responsibility of the state governments to

provide funding to local government to implement the aims of this Policy.

The key policy for the planning and management of the coastal zone is the NSW

Coastal Policy 1997. The NSW Coastal Policy 1997 was prepared by the NSW Coastal

Council to provide a “new direction for coastal zone management, planning and

conservation in NSW” (1997:8). In particular the role of the policy is to provide a

‘framework’ for the co-ordinated management of the coastal zones’ unique physical,

ecological, cultural and economic attributes. This framework is to be implemented by

state government (through plans and policies), local government (through the Local

Government Act 1993) and also community groups (such as Coastcare and Landcare).

The Policy includes a number of initiatives to further guide coastal management such

as the prohibition of canal estate developments, sand mining and development on the

dune foreshore area.

The NSW Coastal Policy 1997 attempts to directly address the impacts of climate

change in particular sea level rise with the implementation of the ‘precautionary

principle’ (NSW Government 1997). The precautionary principle is based on a risk

adverse approach to decision making. The policy states that “where there are threats

of serious or irreversible environmental damage, lack of full scientific certainty is not to

be used as a reason for postponing measures to prevent environmental degradation”

(NSW Government 1997:17). The Policy promotes the precautionary principle to be

integrated into decision and plan making. Part B of the NSW Coastal Policy1997,

which outlines the implementation of the policy includes specific actions for further

research into the potential threat of climate change on coastlines as shown in Figure

22. Figure 22 also shows the responsible agency for each strategic aim which includes

both government agencies and privately funded corporations.


Objective: To recognise and consider the potential of climate change in the planning and management of coastal development Strategic Aim Responsibility Studies on the influence of climate change for coastal areas will continue to be undertaken in association with the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research.

Environmental Protection Agency

Appropriate planning mechanisms will be considered for incorporating sea level change scenarios set by the IPCC.

Local Councils Department of Lands, Water and Conservation (now department of Department of Natural Resources) Department of Urban Affairs and Planning (now Department of Planning)

The sea level monitoring station installed at Port Kembla Harbour will be used to monitor changes in the sea level as a result of changes in climate as part of the national sea monitoring program.

Port Kembla Port Corporation

Figure 22: Strategic Actions in Part B of the NSW Coastal Policy 1997 aimed at addressing the impacts of climate change. Source: NSW Government 1997:42

State Environmental Planning Policy No. 71- Coastal Protection (SEPP 71) was

gazetted on the 1st November 2002 under the EP & A Act to provide a legislative

framework in which the NSW Coastal Planning Policy 1997 could be implemented

(refer to Figure 23). The aims of SEPP 71, shown in Figure 23 are therefore generally

in line with that of the NSW Coastal Planning Policy 1997. The SEPP (in Clause 8)

provides matters for consideration relating to access to the foreshore, amenity of the

foreshore area, conservation of flora and fauna, impacts of coastal hazards on

development and development on coastal hazards, the maintenance and protection of

heritage and water quality. These matters are to be taken into account when assessing

development on the coastal zone.

A key element of SEPP 71 is the determination of ‘significant coastal development’

based on built form and location of the site to be developed. The SEPP states that if a

development proposal is considered significant coastal development under Clause 9 it

cannot be granted consent by Councils without the consent of the Minister and or the

Director General of the Department of Planning. This means that the impacts of certain

developments are more thoroughly determined by two parties (Minister/Director

General and Council). Also included in this SEPP (in Clause 20) is the need for the

creation of a masterplan (now referred to as a development control plan6) for sites that

are covered by this policy.

6 As amended in the EP & A Act on 25 July 2005.


SEPP 71- aims: � “to protect and manage the natural, cultural, recreational and economic attributes

of the New South Wales coast, and � to protect and improve existing public access to and along coastal foreshores to

the extent that this is compatible with the natural attributes of the coastal foreshore, and

� to ensure that new opportunities for public access to and along coastal foreshores are identified and realised to the extent that this is compatible with the natural attributes of the coastal foreshore, and

� to protect and preserve Aboriginal cultural heritage, and Aboriginal places, values, customs, beliefs and traditional knowledge, and

� to ensure that the visual amenity of the coast is protected, and � to protect and preserve beach environments and beach amenity, and � to protect and preserve native coastal vegetation, and � to protect and preserve the marine environment of New South Wales, and � to protect and preserve rock platforms, and � to manage the coastal zone in accordance with the principles of ecologically

sustainable development (within the meaning of section 6 (2) of the Protection of the Environment Administration Act 1991), and

� to ensure that the type, bulk, scale and size of development is appropriate for the location and protects and improves the natural scenic quality of the surrounding area, and

� to encourage a strategic approach to coastal management.

This Policy aims to further the implementation of the Government’s coastal policy.”

Figure 23: Aims of SEPP 71

Source: NSW Government 2002: Clause 2.

The importance of SEPP 71, in relation to coastal planning has somewhat been

reduced with the gazetting of the Major Projects SEPP on 25 April 2005 and the

amendment of the EP & A Act to include Part 3A (discussed above). Prior to the

gazettal of the Major Projects SEPP, Clause 10 of SEPP 71 was repealed relating to

development within ‘sensitive coastal locations’. The Major Projects SEPP now takes

on the function defining sensitive coastal development that would previously have to be

referred to the Minister of Planning for assessment. SEPP 71 has effectively been

stripped of one of its key functions which substantially reduced the importance of this

SEPP in the protection of the coastal zone.

The Coastal Design Guidelines for NSW is another document that was created by

NSW government. This document was created in 2003 and has been developed to

provide the further implementation of both the NSW Coastal Policy 1997 and SEPP 71.

The Coastal Design Guidelines for NSW provides specific guidelines for the


development of the coastal zone including the identification of the desired future

character of certain coastal areas. The Coastal Design Guidelines for NSW includes

guidance to reduce the development of properties that are affected by coastal

processes and sea level rise. Part B of the Coastal Design Guidelines for NSW

includes certain development principles in particular to guide the footprints of buildings

and protection of natural coastal edges. The implementation of the Coastal Design

Guidelines for NSW is delegated to the responsibility of local governments that contain

parts of the coastal zone within NSW.

In addition to these policies the NSW Government has also developed State

Environmental Planning Policy No. 14- Coastal Wetlands (SEPP 14). The involvement

of SEPP 14 in coastal planning is minor in that it only relates to the development of

certain wetland areas that have not already been listed as National Parks in the

National Parks and Wildlife Act 1974. This SEPP directs development applications

pertaining to areas that contain important wetland ecosystems to the NSW Minister of

Planning (Clause 6) for assessment.

The documents listed above are currently quite important in the management and

planning of the coastal zone however, the future of planning and management of the

coastal zone is said to be through the recently released regional strategies prepared by

the NSW Government (Whitworth 2006). The NSW Department of Planning has either

prepared, or is in the process of preparing a number of regional strategies for coastal

areas including the Sydney Greater Metropolitan, Hunter, Central Coast, Illawarra,

South Coast and North Coast Regions of New South Wales. Whitworth states that

these policies will provide the framework to ensure that the impacts of sea level rise

are addressed at a local government level (2006). Each of these strategies identifies

the ‘natural hazards’ of the region including the impacts of climate change and sea

level rise. These regional strategies make reference to the importance of the CP Act,

NSW Coastal Policy 1997, SEPP 71 and the NSW Coastal Management Manual 1990

in planning for the impacts of sea level rise and climate change. The regional

strategies also include actions that are aimed at protecting coastlines from the impacts

of climate change and sea level rise as shown in Figure 24.

http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/plansforaction/northcoast.asp

http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/southcoast/index.asp

http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/plansforaction/illawarra.asp

http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/plansforaction/central_coast.asp


Actions (to protect the coastal zone from ‘natural hazards’) Councils shall undertake flood investigations that consider risks associated with climate change and prepare Floodplain Risk Management Plans. Draft LEPs must be consistent with Flood Risk Management Plans. LEPs shall make provision for adequate setbacks in areas of coastal erosion risk and ocean based inundation in accordance with Coastal Zone Management Plans Until Risk Management Plans are made by Councils and Coastal Zone Management Plans by the Minister for Natural Resources, councils cannot zone land or approve new development in potential hazard areas in isolation, unless assessed within a risk assessment framework adopted by council Zoning of land for future development within the catchments of coastal lakes (as defined in Schedule 1 of SEPP 71) must consider a Coastal Lake Sustainability Assessment.

Figure 24: Regional Strategies actions to manage and plan the coastal zone.

Source: Department of Planning 2006: Various Strategies

Coastal planning and management in Sydney as a result of the extent to which the

coastal zone has been developed and the population density contained in local

government areas, has up until recently7 been carried out under a different policy

known as Sydney Regional Coastal Management Strategy. Although the coastal zone

has been extended, this policy is still the primary coastal planning and management

strategy for the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Region (i.e. from Newcastle to

Wollongong). This strategy was released by the Sydney Coastal Council Group

(SCCG) and the Regional Steering Committee in 1998 to promote the “implementation

of sustainable coastal planning and management practices that will ultimately protect

and conserve terrestrial and marine ecosystems” (Sydney Coastal Councils Group and

Regional Steering Committee 1998:5).

The Sydney Regional Coastal Management Strategy has similar goals to that of the

NSW Coastal Policy 1997 in that it promotes that the coordination of an integrated

approach to coastal planning to facilitate sustainable coastal development. This

strategy identifies several key responsibilities for local government in relation to climate

change impacts and coastal development (Hebert and Taplin 2006). These are shown

in Figure 25. This strategy although developed on a regional scale is important to the

coastal planning and management of NSW in that it relates to the states capital city,

Sydney which is where the majority of coastal development and coastal population is

located.

7 The coastal zone was recently extended to include some local government areas within Sydney (NSW

Government 2005).


Climate change Planning Mechanisms Level of Priority

Consideration of physical, ecology processes and natural hazards when assessing Development Applications

Essential

Incorporation sea level change scenarios set by IPCC

Highly desirable

Vulnerability assessment for Sydney’s entire coastline

Highly desirable

Development of greenhouse policies, planning and building codes

Essential

Assessment of existing seawalls and other protective structures

Highly desirable

Figure 25: Climate change associated with the coastline considered the primary responsibility of local

government.

Source: Hebert and Taplin2006:38

Another plan that is relevant to planning and managing the impacts of sea level rise is

the NSW Greenhouse Plan which has been recently released in 2005 by the newly

established NSW Greenhouse Office. The purpose of the plan is to identify studies that

should be undertaken to determine the specific impacts brought about by climate

change and integrate them into the planning systems. This Plan although primarily

aimed at identifying mitigation measures to reduce climate change (through

greenhouse gas emissions) also aims to adapt to the impacts of climate change with a

specific reference to coastal impacts. The Plan currently identifies funding for these

studies into 2009, indicating that these studies may not be available for some time to

come.


4.7 Conclusion

Together this legislation, policies, plans and strategies discussed in this thesis are

responsible for guiding coastal planning in NSW. These policies and strategies are

responsible for not only guiding planning at a state level but also, and more importantly

acting as guiding documents for the development assessment and policy making

(including LEPs, DCPs and Coastal Management Plans) for coastal planning and

management at a local government level. It is imperative that these state documents

guide policy making and development assessment at the local level because this is the

level where the impacts of sea level rise can be most accurately addressed as a result

of the varying characteristics of the coastal zone.

It is unreasonable to assume that the NSW government can plan and manage the

entire coastal zone in NSW because of the size of this area and the differing nature of

the NSW coastline. Therefore is it is the responsibility of the state government to

provide guiding documents that equip local governments with the knowledge, tools and

data required to undertake individual coastal investigations to determine thier

vulnerability to sea level rise (Australian Local Government Association 2005). These

coastal investigations will inform policy making and decision making at a local

government level and therefore contribute to minimising the impacts of sea level rise

on the coastal zones of NSW. Only when the state provides sufficient guiding

documents will the impacts of sea level rise be addressed at a local government level.

Chapter 5 of this thesis builds on the planning of the coastal zone in NSW discussed

above. Chapter 5 addresses the omissions or ‘gaps’ that exist in the current planning

legislation of the coastal zone and the NSW planning system that result in a limited

response to the impacts of sea level rise (highlighted in Chapter 3 of this thesis) at a

local government level.


Broken bridges over troubled

waters


5.1 Introduction

The Australia Government has devolved power to the state government to manage and plan

for the impacts of sea level rise. It is state government legislation, policy and plans that

should guide investigations, development assessment and also policy making to address the

impacts of sea level rise at a local level. The current legislation and policy prepared by the

NSW government is insufficient in providing suitable guidance for local government to plan

and manage the impacts of a rising sea level. Issues and misconception surround NSW

governments’ legislation and policies including existing knowledge, responsibility, guiding

documents, legislative enforcement and the provision of funding for local government. The

reliance of the federal and local government on the state government to accurately develop a

suitable planning response to protect human settlement and ecosystems from the impacts of

sea level rise means that these issues will have an impact on all levels of government and

the country of Australia as a whole.

This chapter of the thesis critiques both the planning documents, discussed in Chapter 4

and the NSW planning system, in their provision of guidance to address the impacts of sea

level rise (discussed in Chapter 3) at a state and local level. This chapter also provides the

basis for the recommendations to better plan and manage the impacts of sea level within

NSW contained in Chapter 6. Chapter 6 of this thesis should therefore be read in

conjunction with this chapter.

5.2 Issues in the NSW system and policy Existing knowledge

There seem to be misconceptions surrounding the information available to determine the

impacts of planning for sea level rise and therefore provide a suitable planning response to

this issue. The existing knowledge that has been developed on this issue is at the moment

sufficient to provide a more structured response to sea level rise through NSW planning

policy. However, there is still a lack of controls and direction within NSW planning policy

which seems to imply the opposite: that there is not a great amount of knowledge available

on managing and planning the impacts of sea level rise. Most of the planning documents


discussed in Chapter 4 indicate that a wide number of studies need to undertaken before a

response to sea level rise can be undertaken. Yet, it is clear at the moment that there is an

abundance of existing knowledge available to inform state policy, and therefore provide a

suitable planning response to sea level rise in the short term. Planning for sea level rise in

the long term however, still requires more investigation to determine the impacts of sea level

rise at a local government level.

Hebert and Taplin reiterate this misconception of a lack of existing knowledge, stating “the

greatest limiting factor regarding the ability of planning for coastal climate change is the lack

of available information and, therefore the ability to accurately predict the impacts of future

sea level rise” (2006:36). This is true to some extent: it is clear that there is a lack of

information in some local government areas on the impacts of sea level rise, which results

from a combination of a lack of guiding policy and funding from the NSW government

(discussed below). However, at a national and state level there is an abundance of

information that has already been developed with the potential to inform and guide planning

for sea level rise.

There are a number of key authors who have pioneered studies on the impacts of sea level

rise on human settlement and ecosystems and appropriate planning responses. These

authors include Titus (1990, 1991) and Nichols (1999, 2002) in the United States of America,

Bird (1993) in the United Kingdom and McInnes and Walsh (2002, 2003 and 2004) in

Australia. In addition to these individual organisations such as the Australian Institute of

Engineers and the CSIRO have undertaken research and subsequently presented guidelines

for planning for the impacts of sea level rise within Australia and NSW (Gordon 2006).

Another important factor in terms of the existing knowledge for planning and managing the

impacts of sea level rise is past experience. The impacts of sea level rise have been felt

around the globe since the onset of human occupation. As has been identified throughout

this thesis- we are not looking at a new phenomenon but merely an acceleration of an

existing process. This means there should be, within state and local government, a basic

understanding of what areas are vulnerable to sea level rise. Thus, it is clear that the NSW

government has yet another (in addition to existing literature) firm base on which to develop

a suitable planning response to the impacts of a rising sea level.


Of the key coastal legislation and policy aimed at guiding the planning and management of

the coastal zone (discussed in Chapter 4 and shown in Figure 20, above) almost half

promote the need for further investigation into the impacts of climate change, including sea

level rise. These policies include the CP Act, Coastal Policy 1997, NSW Coastal

Management Manual 1990, Sydney Regional Coastal Management Strategy and the NSW

Greenhouse Plan. It is interesting that in the face of existing knowledge, the majority of

information that is aimed at guiding coastal planning is more concerned with undertaking

further studies rather than utilising existing information. Gordon suggests that this current

information could be used to provide interim controls to guide planning of the coastal zone

(2006). This would be sufficient for planning in the short term; prior to the undertaking of

further investigations at a local level to inform future planning controls for the impacts of a

rising sea level.

Moreover a certain irony exists in the fact that all these policies and plans seek further

investigation to determine the impacts of a rising sea level, when this information has been

available to them for over 15 years in one of their own documents: the NSW Coastal

Management Manual. The NSW Coastal Management Manual contains a detailed list and

explanation of the impacts of planning for sea level rise. Notwithstanding this, the information

is neither converted into controls in this document- or any other coastal planning policy or

legislation released by the NSW Government.

The lack of planning controls in NSW coastal planning and management legislation seems to

imply that there is not enough information available to inform the creation of these controls. It

is clear, in light of existing literature and past experiences that there is a solid base on which

the NSW government can better plan for the impacts of a rising sea level. As put simply by

Gordon the “NSW government has the information but is doing nothing with it” (2006).

Responsibility

As has been discussed in Chapter 4 of this thesis, the responsibility of the state or federal

government, depending on the governmental structure is to provide guidance to the planning

for sea level rise at a local level. This is because of the heterogeneous nature of the coastal

zone.


The structure of the Australian Government is such in that the state is the ‘middle man’

between federal and local planning and therefore holds the responsibility for guiding planning

for sea level rise throughout the nation (Gordon 2006). At present this responsibility is not

being recognised by the NSW government; shown through its legislation, policy and actions

as discussed further below.

Australia consists of a central government (the Commonwealth or Australian Government)

and eight self-governing states and territories (the Australian Capital Territory, New South

Wales, the Northern Territory, Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, Victoria and Western

Australia). The self governance of states within Australia means that individual states are

therefore responsible for the development of planning legislation and policy. In the Australian

system, the Commonwealth Government is seen as a coordinator of state legislation to

inform the preparation of national planning and management legislation and policy. This is

clearly shown in the national coastal planning document NCAICZM which aims at providing

an integrated approach between states and territories in Australia to plan and manage the

coastal zone (Natural Resources Ministerial Council 2006). The state governments have

further importance in that they are responsible for preparing policy and legislation which

legislates and guides planning at a local government level, as stated by the Australian Local

Government Association (ALGA) “local councils in NSW translate state planning and

management policies and legislation into local actions” (2006:1). Therefore the state

government, in this case NSW is charged with the responsibility of guiding planning for sea

level rise within Australia.

The strength of local and federal government legislation and policy to address the impacts of

a rising sea level is therefore intimately linked to the strength of legislation and policy making

at a state level. There is no other level of government that is in the strategic position that the

state holds- therefore has the capability to influence planning for sea level rise to such an

extent.

In my opinion the NSW state government does not realise its own significance as

responsible for planning and management of the coastal zone in light of the predicted rises in

sea level. This lack of responsibility is shown through the NSW Governments’ policy and

legislative response to the impacts of sea level rise. The NSW government overall has

developed a number of coastal planning policies and plans but all seem to fail to consider a


depth of analysis that is sufficient for guiding the planning and management of the impacts of

sea level rise at a local government level.

Guiding documents

It is now clear there is a sufficient amount of knowledge that is available to inform NSW

legislation and policy. It is also evident that the NSW government holds an important position

in that it informs both federal and local legislation and policy. Notwithstanding this, the

guiding documents released by the state government seem to lack the scope and direction

that is required to ensure that the local government has sufficient tools, knowledge and data

to make certain that the coastal zone will be protected against the impacts of a rising sea.

As was indicated in Chapter 4, there are three key guiding documents in the planning and

management of the coastal zone in NSW: the CP Act; NSW Coastal Policy 1997; and SEPP

71.

This section of the thesis will discuss the validity of these documents and their other NSW

state documents in ensuring that the impacts of sea level rise are appropriately addressed at

a local government level.

Of the three guiding documents released by the NSW government the CP Act, in

combination with its companion document (NSW Coastal Management Manual) is the most

valid and provides the best legislative approach to the implementation of a plan to address

the impacts of sea level rise at a local level. The key attribute of the CP Act, in planning for

the impacts of sea level rise, is the requirement for the preparation of a Coastal Management

Plan at a local level if directed by the Minister. The CP Act’s importance in planning and

managing the impacts of sea level rise however, is through another document; the NSW

Coastal Management Manual 1990 and within it the NSW Coastline Hazard Policy. This

Manual follows on from the CP Act and provides the next step; guiding the development of a

Coastal Management Plan at a local level. This Manual proves to be one of the most

important documents in defining the impacts of sea level rise on the NSW coastal zone. The

Manual however, does not entirely provide guidance to local council, in that it fails to provide

“defined management responses for each particular impact” to sea level rise (Hebert and

Taplin 2006:39). Therefore, the CP Act is in conjunction with the NSW Coastal Management

Manual 1990 highlights the issue of planning for sea level rise, yet falls short in providing


specific instruction which would help local government to address the impacts of a rising sea

level.

The NSW Coastal Policy 1997 also contains some important information to guide planning

for the impacts of sea level rise but ultimately is let down by its implementation of actions to

address this issue. As highlighted in Chapter 4, the policy attempts to directly address the

impacts of sea level rise through the implementation of the ‘precautionary principle’. The

significance of the implementation of the ‘precautionary principle’ has been supported and

pioneered internationally since the Rio Declaration at the Earth Summit in June 1992, which

was one of the first international meetings to validate the need to address climate change

(Houghton 2004). The implementation of this document however (discussed in Part B), does

not further enforce the ‘precautionary principle’ and therefore we are left with three actions

(refer to Figure 22, above), two of which prompt further investigation and one which prompts

the consideration of “planning mechanisms to meet the sea level change scenarios set by

the IPCC” (NSW Government 1997:48). Once again we are left with another key document

that provides only a loose guidance of planning for the impacts of sea level rise at a local

level.

The third guiding document is SEPP 71 which would appear to further the important

information contained within the NSW Coastal Policy 1997 in that it has been developed to

“further the implementation of the Government’s coastal policy [NSW Coastal Policy 1997]”

(2002: Clause 2). However, Whitworth states that this is in fact not the case and that “SEPP

71 was never designed to be the governments’ response to climate change” (2006). Further

to this, any potential that the SEPP had in protecting against the impacts of sea level rise has

been removed with the gazetting of the Major Projects SEPP (refer to Chapter 4 for further

detail). SEPP 71 is therefore a planning instrument that, although promoting ‘coastal

protection’, contains no relevance to the impacts of sea level rise and has now been made

redundant by a subsequent planning instrument.

In combination, the CP Act, NSW Coastal Policy 1997 and SEPP 71 as a package, prepared

by the NSW government to protect the coastal zone are insufficient in that they do not

adequately address one of the greatest issues in the future; the impact of a rising sea level.

These documents collectively highlight some of the impacts of sea level rise but provide no


specific controls to address the impacts of a rising sea level. The NSW government has

placed a substantial amount of faith in these documents to protect the NSW coastal zone.

The limited scope and lack of implementing controls contained within these guiding

documents is even more disconcerting because these policies are the key guiding

documents in which all other documents reference and are based (as shown in Figure 20,

above). If these key guiding documents (CP Act, NSW Coastal Policy 1997 and SEPP 71)

are not sufficiently addressing the issue of sea level rise, and other planning documents are

referencing these documents, then there is potential for this issue to be overlooked by policy

in the future. The state’s inability to provide suitable guidance through ‘guiding documentation’

means that many areas vulnerable to sea level rise have the potential to experience serious

impacts on both natural ecosystems and human settlement in the future.

Legislative enforcement

Of the entire range of documents released by the NSW government to manage and plan the

coastal zone only CP Act and SEPP 71 have any legislative force. Unlike other documents,

discussed above, the controls and directions contained within the CP Act and SEPP 71 have

to be implemented within local government development assessment and policy making.

This means that local government is required by law to enforce the controls and directions

contained within these documents.

As has been highlighted above, SEPP 71 contains limited (if any) scope to address the

impacts of sea level rise on the coastal zone. This means that the only policy released by the

NSW government that has the potential to reduce the impacts of sea level rise with any

legislative force is the CP Act. This is a concerning situation with the legislative powers of the

state being reduced exclusively to the development of coastal management plans guided by

a document (NSW Coastal Management Manual 1990) that is void of any specific planning

response to sea level rise (as discussed above).

This also means that the NSW Government is relying on an Act that was created in 1979

prior to the understanding of future climate changes-to ensure that climate change is

addressed at a local level (Gordon 2006). Of further concern is that the Act draws upon a


document (NSW Coastal Management Manual 1990) that is over 15 years old and has not

since creation been updated to include any recent scientific information on sea level rise.

Local government within NSW is therefore faced with only one strict requirement to ensure

that the impacts of sea level rise are addressed (i.e. the development of a Coastal

Management Plan). Thus, the protection of the coastal zone against sea level rise is based

on the level at which local government is willing to address this issue.

Funding

Another key issue evident in the NSW government system is a lack of funding provided to

the local government from the NSW Government to carry out investigations and ascertain

suitable responses to a rising sea level (Hebert and Taplin 2006). The inaccuracies of the

NSW Government’s coastal planning legislation and policies aside; it is clear the successful

implementation of planning for sea level rise at a local level requires substantial financial

support from the NSW Government. If the NSW government does not provide suitable

funding to investigate this issue then it seems to reduce the importance of the need for it to

be addressed by local government.

The NSW Coastal Management Manual points out that state government is to provide

financial assistance to local governments at a ratio of 1:1 (i.e. 1 state: 1 council) to

implement Coastal Management Plans (NSW Government 1990). The ALGA has identified

that “the flow of funding to councils undertaking coastal projects has fallen significantly”

(2005:14). Hence, some local government areas that need to undertake studies to inform

legislation and plans, to address sea level rise may be hindered from doing so through a lack

of appropriate funding.


5.3 Conclusion

The NSW government has developed Acts, policies, plans and strategies relating to the

coastal zone. Some of these policies have made minor contributions to planning for the

impacts of sea level rise. However, the contributions made by a limited number of policies

are overshadowed by an overall insufficiency to provide legislation and plans that specifically

address the impacts associated with this environmental issue.

The omissions within the NSW Government’s legislation, policy and strategies and the NSW

planning system, have the potential to hinder local government’s undertaking of

investigations, development assessment and policy making in regards to the coastal zone.

Until the NSW Government provides more detail through their guiding documents and

resolves the issues surrounding the implementation of legislation, policy and strategies,

planning for sea level rise will be seriously limited in NSW and the greater Australian context.

These issues have the potential to result in serious impacts on natural ecosystems and

human settlement under predicted sea level rise.

Chapter 6 of this thesis furthers the discussion in this chapter by providing recommendations

to the NSW State Government to improve planning for the impacts of sea level rise. Chapter

6 also provides a conclusion to the core themes discussed in this thesis.


Recommendations Conclusion


6.1 Introduction

The impacts of sea level rise will soon threaten the coastal zone. It is the development

of appropriate responses at a state level that will guide the planning and management

of the coastal zone under this environmental issue. Only through rigid state policy that

is enforced through law will planners within local government be able to determine

areas vulnerable to sea level rise and ensure the protection of both human settlement

and fragile ecosystems.

The first section of this chapter provides recommendations to strengthen NSW

planning legislation and policy and the NSW planning system in providing adequate

adaptive responses to sea level rise in the future. This section of the chapter should be

read in conjunction with Chapter 5 which provides the justification for these

recommendations.

The second section of this chapter provides a conclusion highlighting the key themes

and issues raised throughout this thesis.

6.2 Recommendations

Chapter 5 has provided a key insight into the omissions or ‘gaps’ that are evident in

NSW planning policy and the NSW planning system. These omissions or ‘gaps’ have

the potential to hinder the development of a suitable response to planning and

managing the impacts of sea level rise in the future. The following is a list of

recommendations that follow on from the discussion in Chapter 5. These

recommendations are specifically aimed at the NSW government as they are ultimately

responsible for the protection of the coastal zone in the future.


Existing knowledge

Issue

There is sufficient knowledge on the impacts of sea level rise highlighted through

literature and agency studies that can be used in the short term to inform planning and

management of the impacts of sea level rise.

Recommendation

Existing knowledge and past experience should be used, in the short term, to make

interim controls in state policy which appropriately guide development and policy

making at a local level to address the impacts of sea level rise.

Issue

There appears to be a lack of information available to specifically determine which

areas within local government will be vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise and

therefore guide planning and management of the coastal zone in the long term.

Recommendation

The NSW government through policy should guide the planning and management of

the impacts of sea level rise in the long term fostering further investigations at a local

level in consideration of this base of existing knowledge and past experience.

Responsibility

Issue

The NSW government is not appropriately meeting its responsibility to the federal

government and local government in protecting the coastal zone from the impacts of

sea level rise.

Recommendation

The NSW government needs to prepare appropriate policy that recognises its

responsibility in guiding local government and informing the federal government on

responses to protect the coastal zone.


Guiding documents

Issue

As part of the NSW Coastal Management Manual, the CP Act is the only one of the

three guiding documents that provides any indication of the impacts associated with

sea level rise, yet does not include any adaptive responses.

Recommendation

The NSW government needs to prescribe a number of valid responses that can be

undertaken by local government to adapt to the impacts of a rising sea level.

Explanation

These adaptive responses to sea level rise could be included within the NSW Coastal

Management Manual the use of which at a local government level is enforced by law

through the CP Act. An alternative would be to create a new state document in which

these adaptive responses could be highlighted to local government.

Issue

The NSW Coastal Policy 1997 discusses the importance of the ‘precautionary

principle’ but does not provide sufficient actions in which it can be implemented.

Recommendation

NSW government policy must provide sufficient actions or controls in legislation or

policy to support the use of the ‘precautionary principle’ in local coastal planning and

management.


Issue

None of the three guiding documents (CP Act, NSW Coastal Policy 1997 and SEPP

71) include sufficient detail to appropriately guide planning for sea level rise at a local

level.

Recommendation

The NSW government either needs to strengthen these existing documents with the

inclusion of controls or provide another document which does so and is equivalent to

or greater in status to the CP Act, NSW Coastal Policy 1997 and SEPP 71.

Issue

Existing guiding documents (CP Act, NSW Coastal Policy 1997 and SEPP 71) do not

include sufficient detail to appropriately guide planning for sea level rise at a local level

however they are referenced by other planning policies, plans, manuals and strategies.

Recommendation

The NSW government should either strengthen existing guiding documents to provide

controls to address the impacts of sea level rise, or ensure that documents

referencing them or based on them, include their own measures to ensure the

impacts of sea level rise are addressed in development assessment and policy

making.


Legislative enforcement

Issue

The only one of the three guiding documents released by the NSW government to

protect the coastal zone against sea level rise that is enforceable by law is the CP Act,

which is outdated and provides only limited insight into the impacts of a rising sea

level.

Recommendation

The NSW government should provide more legislative force to existing documentation

such as the NSW Coastal Policy or as an alternative update the CP Act through the

NSW Coastal Management Manual discussed above.

Funding

Issue

The NSW government has been reducing the amount of funding to local government to

undertake coastal projects, therefore reducing the importance of planning and

managing the impacts of a rising sea level.

Recommendation

Further funding should be provided to local governments by the NSW government to

undertake coastal projects in particular relating to the vulnerability of their coastal

zone to the impacts of a rising sea level.

Explanation

At a minimum, funding should be provided by the NSW government in accordance with

the NSW Coastal Management Manual (i.e. at a ratio of 1 state: 1 local government).

This would highlight the importance of addressing the impacts of sea level rise,

allowing local government further investigate areas vulnerable to this environmental

issue. This recommendation would facilitate for the knowledge recommendation

discussed above.


It is hoped that the NSW government will carry out these recommendations ensuring

both it and local government provide suitable adaptive response to sea level rise in the

future.

6.2 Conclusion

Of all the impacts caused by global warming, “accelerated sea level rise is regarded as

the most certain” (Douglas et al, 183:2001). Sea level will rise in the near future and for

hundreds of year to come. The most accurate and popular prediction indicates that sea

level will be one metre above the current levels by the year 2100. However, this

prediction can be regarded as conservative, as there is still a high level of uncertainty

surrounding how much the atmosphere will heat and therefore how quickly the glaciers

and ice sheets around the world will melt. Thus, it can therefore not be ruled out that

the world may not experience up to a six metre sea level rise by the year 2100.

Sea level rise will continue to be monitored through long term tidal gauges and satellite

images to try and determine patterns and reduce the uncertainty surrounding this

issue. In addition, advanced computer modelling will be used ascertain the way in

which the environment will react to greenhouse gas emissions- inturn more accurately

predicting the expected sea level rise.

Sea level will rise in the future through the same natural processes that have caused

historical sea level fluctuations. The only difference between sea level rise in the past

and the future is that projected sea level will rise at an accelerated rate as a direct

result of human intervention into the earth’s natural processes. It is expected that initial

sea level rises will be through the melting of glaciers with a significant contribution from

the Antarctic. However, as atmospheric temperatures are consistently above average,

oceans around the world will begin to warm resulting in thermal expansion which will

dramatically raise sea levels around the globe. The massive amount of water

contained within the ocean means that once the process of thermal expansion begins it

will take a significant and consistent period of atmospheric cooling to stop its

momentum.


This rise in sea level will bring with it a number of general impacts that will have

detrimental effects on both natural ecosystems and human settlement. Sea level rise

will result in the direct inundation of areas, allowing storm surge flooding to penetrate

further inland and undermine the coastal zone through increased erosion. These

impacts will place further stress on already fragile ecosystems including beaches,

wetlands and coral reefs prompting them to either adapt or perish. The devastation of

these ecosystems and consequently the loss of natural buffers, will mean that human

settlement will be more susceptible to a rising sea level. Some nations will not be

greatly affected from the sea level rise whilst others will be highly vulnerable, with a

potential for a substantial loss of land area and human life.

At this point in time our actions in the past have ensured that sea level rise in the near

future cannot be avoided. Therefore the governments of nations that are vulnerable to

sea level rise need to establish suitable adaptive responses to address this issue now.

Governments around the world have already taken an integrated approach through the

development of intergovernmental policies to address rising sea levels. Some

governments with regions that are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise have built

upon intergovernmental strategies through the development of more specific strategies

to address the impacts expected within their nation. However, the development of

suitable responses to adapt to sea level rise has not been undertaken by governments

within some vulnerable nations.

Within Australia the state government is responsible for informing the federal

government; and providing guidance to local government, in relation to the protection

of the coastal zone. This is no more apparent than in NSW, where the government has

created a number of documents, guided by three in particular, each containing

separate qualities that attribute to a protection of the coastal zone against hazards.

Some of these documents include sections to directly address the impacts of a rising

sea level, however there are some omissions or gaps in NSW policy and the NSW

planning system that result in an unsuitable planning and management of the coastal

zone. Issues relating to recognition of existing knowledge and past experience,

acceptance of the states strategic responsibility, limited scope in guiding coastal

documents, legislative enforcement of these documents and inappropriate funding,

collectively hinder the response to the impacts of a rising sea level in NSW. The NSW


government needs to ensure that any issues surrounding coastal planning are

addressed, so that sea level rise does not adversely affect natural ecosystems and

human settlement within the vulnerable nation of Australia.

Only through suitable policy and legislation can responses be developed to adapt to

accelerated sea level rise in the future. Governments have a responsibility to future

generations to begin to address this issue now before nations, states and localities are

faced with irreversible impacts on both natural ecosystems and human settlement in

the near future. It is only hoped that this environmental issue can be addressed before

it is too late.


Bibliography Ali, A (1999) ‘Climate change impacts and adaptation assessment in Bangladesh’, Climate Research, 12, pp. 109- 116. Arenstam Gibbons, S., Nicholls, R. (2006) ‘Island abandonment and sea level rise: An historical analogy from the Chesapeake Bay, USA’, Global Environmental Change, 16, pp. 40-47. Australian Government (1990) NSW Coastline Management Manual and NSW Coastline Hazards Policy, Australian Government Publishing, Canberra. Australian Local Government Association (2006) ‘The roles and responsibilities of local government management’, viewed 6/10/2006, <http://www.alga.asn.au>. Australian Local Government Association (2005) ‘Increasing Coastal Councils Capacity to Manage the Natural Resource Base’, viewed 6/10/2006, <http://www.alga.asn.au>. Barnett, J. (2001) ‘Adapting Climate Change in the Pacific Island Countries: The Problem of Uncertainty’, World Development, 29, pp. 977-993. Becken, S. (2005) ‘Harmonising climate change adaptation and mitigation: The case of tourist resorts in Fiji, Global Environmental Change, 15, pp. 381-393. Belessis, M. (1995) ‘Beachfront buy-out plan stuns owners’, Sydney Morning Herald, 26/9/95 pg 5. Bell, A. (2006) ‘The sea forgot to go cold’, Sydney Morning Herald, 24/9/06 pg 9. Bird, E. (1993) Submerging Coasts: The Effects of a Rising Sea Level on Coastal Environments, John Wiley and Sons, New York. Blackwell, B. (1987) Sea- level Changes, The Institute of British Geographers, Cambridge. Choo, K. (2005) ‘Wave: Global warming is more than a threat’, Planning, August/September, pp. 9-13. CIA Fact Book Website (2006) viewed on 23/9/06, <http://www.ciafactbook.gov>. Cooper, J., Pilkey, O. (2004) ‘Sea-level rise and shoreline retreat: time to abandon the Brunn Rule’, Global Planetary Change, 43, pp. 157-171. CSIRO (2001) ‘The facts: Global sea level rise’, viewed 18/10/06, <http://www.marine.csiro.au>. CSIRO (2003) ‘Climate change and Australia’s coastal communities’, viewed 10/10/06, <http://wwww.dar.csiro.au>. Darby, A. (2006) ‘Slivers of former self as breaking up easy to do’, Sydney Morning Herald, 4/10/06 pg 4.


Douglas, B., Kearney, M., Leatherman, S. (2001) Sea Level Rise: History and Consequences, Academic Press, San Diego. Flannery, T. (2006) ‘Ice rage: the big melt, Sydney Morning Herald, 26/9/06 pg 3. Flannery, T. (2005) The Weather Makers: the history and future impacts of climate change, The Text Publishing Company, Melbourne. Flew, W. (2006) ‘Life’s a beach, and then it disappears’, Sydney Morning Herald, 19/7/06 pg 3. Gary, J. (1972) in Warrick, R., Barrow, E., Wigley, T. (1993) Climate and sea level change: observation, projection and implications, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 107. Gehrels, W., Kirby, J., Prokoph, A., Newham, R., Achterberg, E., Evans, H., Black, S., Scott, D. (2005) ‘Onset of recent rapid sea-level rise in the western Atlantic Ocean’, Quaternary Science Reviews, 24, pp. 2083-2100. Gelbspan, R. (2004) Boiling Point, Basic Books, New York. Google Earth (2006) viewed on 30/9/06, < http://flood.firetree.net>. Gordon, A. Former Chief Executive Officer of Pittwater Council (2006) Key informant interview by Author, Mona Vale, 20 October 2006. Gore, A. (2006) in Paramount Classics and Participant Productions (2006) An Inconvenient Truth. Gornitz, V., Couch, S., Hartig, E. (2002) ‘Impacts of sea level rise in the New York metropolitan area’, Global and Planetary Change, 32, pp. 61-88. Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh (2005) Coastal Zone Policy 2005, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh Publishing, Patuakhali. Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh (2006) Draft Coastal Development Strategy, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh Publishing, Patuakhali. Hartcher, P. (2006) ‘Canberra, take note: climate change is what terrifies us’, Sydney Morning Herald, 3/10/06 pg 5. Hebert, A., Taplin. R. (2006) ‘Climate change impacts and coastal planning in the Sydney greater metropolitan region’, Australian Planner, 43, pp. 34-41. Hennecke, W., (2004) ‘GIS modelling of sea level induced shoreline changes inside coastal re-entrants -two examples from southeastern Australian’, Natural Hazards, 31, pp. 253-276. Houghton, J. (2004) Global Warming: the Complete Briefing, 3rd edition, Cambridge University Press, Port Melbourne. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001) Climate Change 2001: Mitigation, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.


Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2001) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, Cambridge University Press, Melbourne. Kearny, P. (1996) The New Penguin Dictionary of Geology, Penguin Group, London. Kearny, M., Stevenson, J. (1991) ‘Island land loss and marsh vertical accretion rate: Evidence for historical sea level changes in Chespeake Bay’, Journal of Coastal Resources, 7, pp. 403-415. Kont, A., Jaagus, J., Aunap, R. (2003) ‘Climate change scenarios and the effect of sea-level rise for Estonia, Global and Planetary Change, 36, pp. 1-15. Lowe, I. (2005) Living in the Hothouse: how global warming affects Australia, Scribe Publications, Melbourne. Mapstone, M. (1998) ‘Council shores up beachfront properties’, Northern Beaches Weekender, 4/9/98 pg 1. Mapstone, M. (1998) ‘Andrea living in fear of ocean’, Northern Beaches Weekender, 4/9/98 pg 1. Mason, C. (2003) The 2030 Spike, Earthscan Publications, London. McDonald, C. (1978) ‘Let’s heed this storm sign’, The Manly Daily, 15/6/78 pg 8. McInnes, K., Walsh, J., Hubbert, G., Beer, T. (2003) ‘Impact of Sea-level Rise and Storm Surges on a Coastal Community’, Natural Hazards, 30, pp. 187-207. McLean, R., Tsydan, A. (2001) ‘Coastal Zone and Marine Ecosystems’ in McCarthy, J., Canziani, O., Leary, N., Dokken, D., White, K. (2001) Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 343-380. Mimura, N. (1999) ‘Vulnerability of island countries in the South Pacific to sea level rise and climate change’, Climate Research, 12, pp. 127- 143. Mitchell, A., Eamonn, D. (2004) ‘Global warming flexes its muscle’, The Sun Herald, 19/9/04 pg 28. Moser, S. (2005) ‘Impact assessments and policy responses to sea-level rise in three US states: An exploration of human-dimension uncertainties’, Global Environmental Change, 15, pp. 353-369. Muxworthy, L. (2006) ‘Millions spent on threatened homes’, The Manly Daily, 1/7/06, pg 3. Muxworthy, L. (2006) ‘Free bus part of plan to cut global warming’, The Manly Daily, 1/7/06, pg 3. Natural Resource Management Ministerial Council (2006) National Cooperative Approach to Integrated Coastal Zone Management: Framework and Implementation Plan, Commonwealth of Australia Publishing, Canberra.


Nicholls, J., Hoozemans, F., Marchand, M. (1999) ‘Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: regional and global analyses, Global Environmental Change, 9, pp. 69-87. Nicholls, J. (2002) ‘ Analysis of global impacts of sea-level rise: a case study of flooding’, Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, 27, pp. 1455-1466. Nicholls, J., Lowe, J. (2006) in Schelnhuber, H., Cramer, W., Nakicenovic, N., Wigley, T., Yohe, G. (2006) Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. NSW Government (2006) Draft Central Coast Regional Strategy, Government of New South Wales Publishing, Sydney. NSW Government (2006) Draft Far North Regional Strategy, Government of New South Wales Publishing, Sydney. NSW Government (2006) Draft Illawarra Regional Strategy, Government of New South Wales Publishing, Sydney. NSW Government (2006) Draft South Coast Regional Strategy, Government of New South Wales Publishing, Sydney. NSW Government (2006) Lower Hunter Regional Strategy, Government of New South Wales Publishing, Sydney. NSW Government (2006) NSW Greenhouse Plan, Government of New South Wales Publishing, Sydney. NSW Government (2005) State Environmental Planning Policy- Major Projects 2005 Government of New South Wales Publishing, Sydney. NSW Government (2005) Planning Circular: Planning implications of the extension of the NSW Coastal Zone, Government of New South Wales Publishing, Sydney. NSW Government (2005) Media Release: Greater protection for NSW Coastline, Government of New South Wales Publishing, Sydney. NSW Government (2003) Coastal Design Guidelines for NSW, Government of New South Wales Publishing, Sydney. NSW Government (2002) State Environmental Planning Policy No. 71- Coastal Protection, Government of New South Wales Publishing, Sydney. NSW Government (1997) NSW Coastal Policy 1997: A Sustainable Future for the New South Wales Coast, Government of New South Wales Publishing, Sydney. NSW Government (1985) State Environmental Planning Policy No. 14- Coastal Wetlands Government of New South Wales Publishing, Sydney. NSW Parliament (1993) Local Government Act 1993, Government of NSW Publishing, Sydney.


NSW Parliament (1979) Coastal Protection Act 1979, Government of NSW Publishing, Sydney. NSW Parliament (1979) Environmental Planning and Assessment Act 1979, Government of NSW Publishing, Sydney. NSW Parliament (1979) National Parks and Wildlife Act 1979, Government of NSW Publishing, Sydney. Oberthur, S., Ott, H. (1999) The Kyoto Protocol: International Climate Policy for the 21st Century, Springer, Germany. Pittcock, B. (2005) Climate Change: Turning up the Heat, CSIRO Publishing, Collingwood. Plimer, I. (2001) A Short History of Planet Earth, ABC Books, Sydney. Ramsey, A. (2006) ‘Great Barrier Reef on the danger list, The Sydney Morning Herald, 23-24/9/06 pg 3. Roy, P., Connell, J. (1991) ‘Climate change and the future of atoll states, Journal of Coastal Resources, 7, pp 1057-1075. Schelnhuber, H., Cramer, W., Nakicenovic, N., Wigley, T., Yohe, G. (2006) Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Sheehan, P. (2006) ‘Face facts: it’s not just a movie’, The Sydney Morning Herald, 18/9/06 pg 6. Sheldon, B. (2005) ‘NSW Coastal Urban Design Initiative: 2002-2005 and beyond’, Australian Planner, 42, pp. 8-9. South Asian Co-operative Environment Programme (1995) South Asia Seas Action Plan, South Asian Co-operative Environment Programme Publishing, Delhi. Strahler, A., Strahler, A. (1999) Introducing Physical Geography, 2nd ed, Von Huffman Press, New York. Sydney Coastal Councils Group and Regional Steering Committee (1998) Sydney Regional Coastal Management Strategy, Sydney Coastal Councils Group Inc, Chatswood. Titus, J. (1990) ‘Greenhouse Effect, Sea Level Rise, and Land Use’, Land Use Policy, 7 (2), pp. 138-153. Titus, J., Park, R., Leatherman, S., Weggel, J., Greene, M., Manusel, P., Brown, S., Gaunt, G., Trehan, M. and Yohe, G. (1991) ‘Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise: The Cost of Holding Back the Sea’, Coastal Management, 19, pp. 171-204. United Nations Environmental Program Website (2006) viewed on 30/10/06, <http://www.cambia.org>.


Walsh, J., McInnes, K., Abbs, D. (2002) ‘Sea level rise projections and planning in Australia’, Coast to Coast, 22, pp. 34-39. Walsh, K.J.E.; Betts, H.; Church, J.; Pittock, A.B.; McInnes. K.L.; Jackett, D.R. and McDougall, T.J. (2004) ‘Using sea level rise projections for urban planning in Australia’, Journal of Coastal Research, 20, pp. 586-598. Warrick, R., Barrow, E., Wigley, T. (1993) Climate and sea level change: observation, projection and implications, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Whitworth, B., Acting Director, Regional Coordination of Regional Rural Planning at the New South Wales Department of Planning (2006) Key informant interview by Author, Sydney, 20 October 2006. Wikipedia Website (2006) viewed on 18/9/06, <http://en.wikipedia.org>. Woodford, J. (2006) ‘Welcome warm core – spring’s current attraction’, The Sydney Morning Herald, 23-24/9/06, pg 3.

Interviewees Curriculum Vitae

1

Brett Whitworth Curriculum Vitae

Personal details

Brett Christopher Whitworth. Acting Director Regional Coordination Unit Rural and Regional Planning Department of Planning (02) 9228 6111 wk, 0419 401 825 mob

Education

1995 to 1999: Masters of Natural Resources Law and Policy, through the Centre for Natural

Resources Law and Policy. Courses completed; Natural resources law, Local Government Law, Resources Decision Making, Water Law and Law of Land and Nature Conservation, University of Wollongong.

1987 to 1991: Bachelor of Science (Class 2, Division I honours) majoring in Applied Economic

Geography, University of New South Wales.

Professional History

Department of Planning

March 2006 to current: Regional Coordination Branch, Rural and Regional Planning Division. Sutherland Shire Council

July 2005 to March 2006: Senior Environmental Planner, Environmental Planning Unit. Whitworth Consulting

July 2004 to July 2005: Principal of Whitworth Consulting, planning and policy consultants. State Government Departments of Planning (various forms)

• October 2002 to June 2004: Regional Planning Manager, Illawarra and South Coast • February 2004 to April 2004: Secondment to the BASIX Team to provide regulatory advice for

the implementation of BASIX (2 days per week) • August 2003 to October 2003: Secondment to the Regulation Review – Local Development

Taskforce Secretariat (2 days per week) • June 2002 to September 2002: Acting Executive Policy Director for Sue Holliday (Director-

General of Planning NSW) • May 1997 to June 2002: Policy and Reform Branch, Planning and Building System Division.

Part of the management team responsible for the development and now the implementation of the Integrated Development Assessment Reforms. Have been responsible for the liaison and negotiation with councils and State agencies over the implementation of the integrated development assessment reforms. I have held a number of positions in the Branch: o Environmental Planner (May 1997 – February 1999)

2

o Senior Planner (February 1999 – April 2000) o Acting Assistant Director (April 2000 – August 2000) o Assistant Director (August 2000 – June 2002 ) o Acting Director (29 May 2001 – 20 July 2001)

• November 1996 to April 1997: Environmental Planner, Southern and Western Regions Branch. • December 1995 to November 1996: Special Projects Officer in the Illawarra Branch.

Responsible for the coordination of the Better Cities projects in West Dapto (Sustainable Growth Management Framework) and Campbelltown (Urban Revitalisation of Housing Estates), the assessment of major development proposals - Port Kembla Copper Smelter and 800 lot coastal subdivision at Culburra and Planning Officer to the Illawarra Regional Subcommittee of the Metropolitan Strategy Committee.

• July 1995 to September 1995: Technical Assistant to the Director (G Kibble), seconded to the Executive Unit of the Department.

• October 1993 to November 1996: Assistant Environmental Planner, Illawarra/Macarthur Regional Office. Variously Area Officer for Wollongong City Council, Campbelltown City Council and Shoalhaven City Council, as well as assisting in the release of the Illawarra Urban Development Program.

Coastal Planning Experience

Regional Strategic Planning

• Coordination of the roll out of regional strategies, in particular the finalisation of the Illawarra Regional Strategy, the Mid North Coast Regional Strategy and the Lower Hunter Regional Strategy

• Management of a consistent approach on natural resource and coastal adaptation issues in Regional Strategies:

o Requiring councils to prepare combination of estuary management, coastal zone management and floodplain risk management plans to deal with sea-level change and coastal zone impacts

o Combination of biodiversity protection measures through regional conservation plans, and protection of SEPP 14 and 26 areas

o Implementation of Healthy Rivers Commission inquiry into coastal lakes • Initial preparation of a regional planning strategy for the Illawarra and South Coast, including

profile studies (Headline Planning issues, Economic and Demographic profile, social profile, housing supply and demand, environmental sustainability issues, retail centres review, employment lands strategy and agricultural diversification) and stakeholder engagement

• Coordination of the implementation of coastal management principles to be implemented through planning instruments at the local and regional level, as well as structures for the Narooma, Bermagui and Snug Cove masterplans.

• Review of environmental planning instruments applying to coastal region, including State Environmental Planning Policies (71, 14 and 26), Regional Environmental Plans and Local Environmental Plans.

3

Major Development Assessment

• Major projects assessed include; the Port Kembla Copper Smelter, an 800 lot subdivision in the sensitive catchment of Lake Wollumboola at Culburra, the $400M Tin Mill proposal at BHP Wollongong, and the extension of the Wongawilli Waste Emplacement at Wollongong.

Strategic Planning – Sutherland Shire Council

• Statutory planning functions o LEP and DCP process – implementation and review of Sutherland consolidated LEP

and DCP o Development advice and customer service relating to SEPP 71 issues – notably pre-

DA discussions for DA at Cronulla (first metro DA determined under SEPP 71) • Coordination of the introduction of new planning controls, particularly the introduction of SEPP

71 in the Sutherland Shire o Mapping of coastal zone and sensitive coastal locations o Identification of revised development assessment procedures o Review of key development applications in the coastal zone.

Strategic Planning and Development Assessment – Whitworth Consulting

• Growth Management Strategy for Shoalhaven City Council o Review of issues papers o Development of strategy – background paper and succinct issues paper and spatial

strategy o Project management of process

• Manage and prepare the development application for a State Significant SEPP 71 Coastal Development involving a residential subdivision and townhouse development of 85 lots at Coffs Harbour

• Presentation on SEPP 71 and coastal development issues to NEERG and Planning Institute of Australia Seminars

4

Angus Gordon Curriculum Vitae

Personal details

Angus Donald Gordon 46 Taiyul Road (H) North Narrabeen NSW 2101 9913 8064 (T/F)

Education

1969 B.E. (Civil), The University of New South Wales, 1972 M.Eng.Sc. (Water and Coastal), The University of New South Wales 1985 Executive Development Course, Institute of Administration, 1987 Management of Research and Development, Inst. of Administration,

Professional History

1996-2005 Chief Executive Officer, Pittwater Council 1995-1996 Business Development Manager, AWT EnSight 1994-1995 Manager, Private Sector Infrastructure, Public Works 1993-1994 Manager, CEO Executive Support, Public Works 1986-1993 Director, AWACS Pty Ltd., Manager Manly Hydraulics Laboratory 1977-1986 Inspecting Engineer, Public Works 1977 Antarctic Division 1976-1977 Supervising Engineer, Public Works 1973-1975 Project Engineer, Manly Hydraulic Laboratory 1972-1973 Water and Sewerage Design Engineer, Shoalhaven Shire Council 1972 Lecturer, Civil Engineering, Uni of NSW 1970-1972 Project Engineer Water Research Laboratory, Uni of NSW 1966-1970 Full Time Civil Engineering Degree 1964-1966 Commercial Management Trainee Qantas Airways

Coastal Planning Experience

Engineering

Byron Bay (NSW) - 1977-1979, 2000 Tweed Heads (NSW) - 1983-1989 New Brighton (NSW) - 1977-1979 Warringah Shire - 1982-1984 Tathra (NSW) - 1980 Cronulla (NSW) - 1977-Present Hawks Nest (NSW) - 1982-1984 Sydney (NSW) - 1989 NSW Coastal Zone Management Policy - 1977-1986

5

Jerudong (Brunei) - 1992, 1993 Jakarta (Indonesia) 1994 Estuary, River and Wetlands Management

Forster/Tuncurry (NSW) - 1979-1980 Dee Why (NSW) - 1977-1982 Warriewood (NSW) 1979-Present South West Rocks (NSW) - 1985 Lake Burrill (NSW) - 1972 Shuwalkh (Kuwait) - 1990 Shoalhaven (NSW) 1973-Present Jakarta (Indonesia) - 1994-1995 Dubai (UAE) – 1995 Sediment Transport-Coastal process studies, sand movement onshore/offshore, longshore and beach erosion

Newcastle Bight (NSW) - 1974-1977 Hawks Nest (NSW) - 1982 Wamberal (NSW) - 1978, 1984 Cronulla (NSW) - 1977-Present Byron Bay (NSW) - 1977, 1978 Carama Inlet (NSW) - 1989 Tathra (NSW) - 1980 Fly Point (NSW) - 1989 Broken Bay (NSW) - 1981 Tweed Heads (NSW) - 1989 Burnie (Tas) - 1981 Somers (VIC) - 1991 Hawks Nest (NSW) - 1982 Belmont (NSW) - 1991 Sydney Shelf (NSW) - 1979 Jerudong (Brunei) - 1991 Wave Climate Studies

Bombo (NSW) - 1970 Pilot Bay (Tas) - 1971 Sand Bypassing Studies

Tweed Heads (NSW) - 1989, 1990 Shoalhaven (NSW) - 1974 Kempsey (NSW) - 1973 Narrabeen (NSW) - 1987 Woden Valley (ACT) - 1975 Manning (NSW) - 1989 Shelf Currents Studies

Various Studies on NSW Shelf (Tweed, Coffs, Gosford, Sydney, Illawarra)

6

Outfall Monitoring/Studies

Sydney (North Head/Bondi/Malabar) (NSW) - 1987-1993 Illawarra (NSW) – 1991 Hong Kong - 1995 Climatic Change Various research studies on Climatic change Input; sea level; coastal erosion; flooding) 1980-Present Marina Studies Southport Yacht Club (Qld) - 1991 Royal Prince Alfred YC (NSW) 1992, 1993

Interview questions

1

Interview Questions-Brett Whitworth

Preliminary Questions

1. Could you please provide me with a brief outline of your professional qualifications and experience in regards to coastal planning?

2. How long where you at local government? 3. How long have you been at state government?

State Legislation/Policy

-aimed at planning experience

4. What do you see as the key issues facing the NSW Coastline: a. Now? b. And looking into the future?

5. In coastal planning what level of government do you see as being most instrumental? (In terms of providing framework etc?)

6. You have been instrumental in the development of SEPP 71-Coastal Protection. What type of studies where undertaken in preparation for the development of this policy?

7. Where any of these studies specifically relating to the impacts of sea level rise? 8. To what extent did the Australian and local government provide input into SEPP

71? 9. One of the actions to meet the objectives of the NSW Coastal Policy 1997 is to

consider appropriate planning mechanisms for incorporating sea level change scenarios into coastal policy. SEPP 71 has been created to “further the implementation of the Government’s coastal policy”. What sections of this SEPP do you see as carrying out this function?

10. Do you think the repeal of Clause 10 into the Major Projects SEPP has reduced the importance of SEPP 71 in planning for the coastal zone?

11. Do you believe that SEPP 71 is missing anything in relation to coastal planning and more specifically in planning for sea level rise?

12. You worked in local government after the release of SEPP 71. How did this SEPP influence coastal planning in your local government area?

13. Was there any opportunity for SEPP 71 to contain more specific guidelines to coastal planning and management such as a document like the Australian standards or to be integrated through an LEP template?

2

Interview Questions-Angus Gordon

Preliminary Questions

14. Could you please provide me with a brief outline of your professional qualifications and experience?

15. How long where you at local government? 16. What experiences/qualifications do you think you hold that particularly add to your

knowledge of climate change and more specifically the impacts of sea level rise?

Impacts of sea level rise

-aimed at science experience

17. There is a constant debate about whether or not we are currently experiencing the impacts of climate change in particular through past sea level rises. Where do you stand on this debate?

18. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has stated that sea level will rise by 88cm-1m by the year 2100. There are said to be substantial impacts felt around the world as a result of this in terms of erosion, inundation and storm surge flooding.

a. How vulnerable do you think Aust/NSW is to the impacts of sea level rise? b. What do you think the most significant impacts will be? c. Where are the most vulnerable areas? Examples?

State Legislation/Policy

-aimed at planning experience

19. In planning for the impacts of sea level rise what level of government do you see as being most instrumental? (In terms of providing guidance etc?)

20. In your opinion has the State government undertaken sufficient studies to determine the specific impacts of sea level rise in NSW?

21. Ignoring whether or not we are experiencing impacts of climate change at the moment. Do you think that current State legislation/policy is accurately protecting the coastal zone (both ecosystems and development) from hazards (eg erosion, storm surge flooding)?

22. Now taking into account that there will be severe impacts on the coastline brought about by sea level rise in the near future. Do you think that current State legislation/policy is accurately protecting the coastal zone (both ecosystems and development) from projected hazards (eg erosion, storm surge flooding)?

23. You have previously mentioned some faults in SEPP 71-Coastal Protection in the past in that it is insufficient in protecting our coastlines from the impacts of sea level rise. Can you provide more detail on this?

24. So what do you see as the key oversights in NSW planning coastal policy in regards to coastal protection from the impacts of sea level rise? i.e. what needs to be included? What could be done better?

3

Local Government Experience

25. You have had experience as a senior manager in a local government area located

within the coastal zone. Do you think the State govt. provided you appropriate tools, knowledge, framework and funding to allow you to carry out studies into the impacts of sea level rise on your LGA?

26. What studies where undertaken in your local government area to determine the vulnerability to the impacts of sea level rise?

27. What state policies provided you with the most guidance in regards to planning and management of the coastline in light of the impacts of sea level rise?

UNSW FBE Ethics Approval

Swelling Oceans: Planning for sea level rise...Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 2 1.1...

Documents

Transcript of Swelling Oceans: Planning for sea level rise...Swelling Seas: Planning for sea level rise 2 1.1...