Strategic foresight nf-ml

Dr. Miriam JS Leis

Strategic Futurist1

Strategic Foresight

an introduction

Dr. Miriam JS Leis

Strategic Futurist2

an introduction

Premises for socio-technological studies (incl. foresight)

� Natural laws are quite reliable for all practical purposes

(some theories may be false, new mechanisms are discovered)

� Technology and engineering are subject to natural laws

(it cannot be built if not in accordance with natural laws)

� Human biology and psychology have some fairly reliable components

Dr. Miriam JS Leis

Strategic Futurist3

� Human biology and psychology have some fairly reliable components

(as biology and cognition follows natural laws)

� Economics follows a certain logic and sets of established rules

(esp. if based on human biology and psychology, e.g. needs)

� “Societal laws” are quite artificial and can be subject to change over

time (laws and regulations, norms, tastes, acceptable behavior etc.)

�� “Societal laws” can impact economics and to some degree

“human psychology” and “legal technologies”, but not the natural laws

In contrast to natural laws, “Societal laws” can be changed!


Dr. Miriam JS Leis

Strategic Futurist4

Finally only physical things can affect physical things…

Possibilities are depending on:

� Restrictions from natural laws

� Available technology (e.g. for analysis, communication etc.)


Dr. Miriam JS Leis

Strategic Futurist5

� Realization of physical things is dependent on thought processes:

� Intelligence (research)

� Laws and regulations

� Societal acceptance (incl. will people buy it, invest in R&D etc.)

What we can do (if we really want tit)

But do we really?

Societal reactions

Interest groups

Policy/Laws

Emotions

Finances

Wild Cards

Dr. Miriam JS Leis

Strategic Futurist6

Policy/Laws

Undesirable Technologies

Desirable Technologies

�

∞

po

ssib

le

Currently possible

Currently legally implemented

Definition Foresight

Systemic study about

� possible

� probable

Dr. Miriam JS Leis

Strategic Futurist7

� probable

� preferable

Futures

Not a prediction of the future,

but an evaluation of possible developments based on:

� Natural laws

� Socio-economic “patterns” and theories (“weak laws”)

� The state of present

Definition Foresight

Dr. Miriam JS Leis

Strategic Futurist8

� The state of present

� scientific

� technological

� socio-economic

� possibilities and developments as baseline

The goal is to influence the direction of events to archive

a desirable (relative standpoint) future.

Strategic Foresight

“The best way to predict your future is to create it”

Dr. Miriam JS Leis

Strategic Futurist9

“The best way to predict your future is to create it”

(Abraham Lincoln?, Peter Drucker?)

1) Identify possible futures (possible according to natural laws)

2) Identify probable futures (probable in regard to timeframes ,

expenses, practicality and “societal laws”)

3) Identify preferred futures (relative standpoints)

Strategic Foresight

Dr. Miriam JS Leis

Strategic Futurist10

3) Identify preferred futures (relative standpoints)

4) can the probabilities for preferred futures be changed through

changes of “societal laws”?

How to: Strategic Foresight

1) Identify possible futures

Natural Law Side

� What is possible within the framework of natural laws?

� What may be possible given a certain time-frame?

� Findings of basic research

Dr. Miriam JS Leis


� Findings of basic research

� Gaps/uncertainties in basic research

� Technologies

� Analysis technologies

� Production technologies

� Enabling technologies

To create products that could bring about change in XYZ


1) Identify possible futures

Methodology

� R&D scanning (what is possible in theory)

� Weak signal scanning (blueprints, early demonstrators etc.)

Dr. Miriam JS Leis


� Analysis of R&D/technology dependencies

(e.g. of analysis technologies, enabling technologies etc. and

their availability in dependence to time)

2) Identify probable futures

Socio-economic Side

� Are the resources available

� Is it economically feasible


Dr. Miriam JS Leis


� Probable in regard to time-frames (generally: the probability for a

new possible technology to be implemented rises with time)

� Is there societal interest (incl. laws and regulations, economic

considerations, expressed societal challenges etc.)

To create products that could bring about change in XYZ


2) Identify probable futures

Methodology

� Economic forecasts

� Macrohistory (e.g. cycles etc.)

Dr. Miriam JS Leis


� Socio-economic Trends and legal landscapes

� Analysis of socio-economic dependencies

� Identification of possible “wild cards” (possible but improbable

game changers)

� Scenario methods

� Delphi methods for possibility assessment


3) Identify preferable futures

Socio-economic side

� What are the gaps to the status quo?

� What do we want to change?

Dr. Miriam JS Leis


� What are “Grand Challenges”

� How do we want to live?

� How do we want to achieve how we want to live?

� What is desirable for whom?

� Who are the stakeholders of change?

� What are possible trade-offs?


3) Identify preferable futures

Methodology

� Visions and Vision Assessment

� Grand Challenges

Dr. Miriam JS Leis


� “Normative Delphi”

� Technology Assessment

� Influencing entities and their positions can e.g. displayed/modeled

with a “force diagram”

4) Can the probabilities be changed through changes of “societal laws”?

� Gap analysis between possible, probable and desirable futures

� Here “Societal Laws” are a crucial element

Goal: Influence “Societal Laws” (perception, laws, acceptance, desires,


Dr. Miriam JS Leis


Goal: Influence “Societal Laws” (perception, laws, acceptance, desires,

funding etc.) to make more desirable futures more probable.

4) Can the probabilities be changed through changes of “societal laws”?

Methodology

� Path dependency analysis (how does A impact B)

� SWOT Analysis to arrive at XYZ


Dr. Miriam JS Leis


� Identification of requirements (what do we need, e.g. funding, access

to decision-makers, HR, media, tools etc. and how can we get it)

� Identification of leverage points

� Strategy planning and action plan

� Force diagrams

Integrative Model

Vision: What do we want?

TA/ELSI:

• What may be consequences?

Vision Assessment

• How realistic is the vision?

• Which factors play a role?

• What do we need?

Challenge: What do we need?

+ Trends

+ History

Dr. Miriam JS Leis


Revised Vision (desirable and possible)

(Innovation) Strategies

Scenarios

Forecasts (in plural!)

The earlier you know what might happen within a given time-frame

(e.g. a theory to be put into a product), the more time to act to:

� Invest in development of products (acceleration)

� Gather funding to achieve the goal in time

� Influence “Societal Laws”

Strategic Foresight

Dr. Miriam JS Leis


� Influence “Societal Laws”

� or develop strategies to hinder an outcome

The technology is already there, but the legal framework lags behind

Terms: Legal Lag

(Examples: human embryonic stem cells, digital media and IPR,

Neurotechnology (e.g. concept of death), accountability in regard to

robotics/automated systems/prosthetics, life extension technologies)

Dr. Miriam JS Leis


A perceived increase in the rate of technological (and sometimes social

and cultural) progress throughout history, which may suggest faster

and more profound change in the future.

(Vernor Vinge and Ray Kurzweil)

Terms: Accelerating Change

Dr. Miriam JS Leis


Dr. Miriam JS Leis


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