SPPI CO2 Report November 2010 - Lord Monckton

8/8/2019 SPPI CO2 Report November 2010 - Lord Monckton

1/38

1

Christopher Monckton,Editor www.scienceandpublicpolicy.org

November 2010 | Volume 2 | Issue 11

SPPI Monthly CO2 Report


2/38

2

3

Global government is here. It will not go away easily.The authoritative Monthly CO2 Report for November 2010 explains what the Cancun climate summit really

achieved: the establishment of hundreds of interlocking bureaucracies, directed by a single shadowy Secretariat that

bids fair to become the unelected government of the world. Editorial Comment: Page 3.

Our graphs explained: An account of how we compile our authoritiative SPPI temperature and CO2 graphs.Page 4.

IPCC assumes CO2 concentration will reach 836 ppmv by 2100, but, on present trends, it will be well short. Pages 5-7.

Since 1980 global temperature has risen at only 2.9 F (1.6 C)/century, not 6 F (3.4 C) as IPCC predicts.Pages 8-11.

Sea level rose just 8 inches in the 20

th

century, and has been rising since 1993 at a very modest 1 ft/century.Page 12.Arctic sea-ice extent has been growing rapidly as usual following its summer minimum In the Antarctic, sea ice extent wasrecently at its third-highest in the 30-year record. Global sea ice extent shows little trend for 30 years.Pages 13-17.

Hurricane and tropical-cyclone activity remains near its lowest since satellite measurement began.Pages 18-22.

Sunspot activity continues to underperform, following the longand coolsolar minimum.Pages 23-24.

The (very few) benefits and the (very large) costs of the Waxman/Markey Bill are illustrated atPages 25-28.

A Special Focus shows who is spending almost $1 bn to buy or bully public opinion on the climate.Page 29.

As always, theres our global warming ready reckoner, the surest way to check policy costs against benefits. Pages 30-31.

And our selection of recent scientific papers of interest, compiled by Dr. Craig Idso ofwww.co2science.org.Pages 32-36.

The medieval warm period was real, global, and warmer than the present, as our global map shows.Page 37.

And finally ... in the weird world of taxpayer-funded climate science, bad news is good news! Page 38.

SPPI Monthly CO2 Report : : November 2010Accurate, Authoritative Analysis for Todays Policymakers
http://www.co2science.org/http://www.co2science.org/http://www.co2science.org/http://www.co2science.org/


3/38

3

HE 16TH CONFERENCE of the Parties, said Ms.Christiana Figueres, its president, is a litmustest of global-governance capacity. There it was,

right out in the open. Yet the few commentators whopointed out that the Cancun agreement establishedseveral hundred new bureaucracies all over the world,all answerable to the shadowy but now immenselywealthy and powerful Secretariat of the States Partiesto the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change,were pilloried by the Fascists of the green movementas mere world-government conspiracy theorists.

After Cancun, world government is a fact. It is here. It is real. It

is costly. It is unelected. It is powerful. It will grow. It will beresented. It will be hated. But it will not easily be dislodged.

It is easy to establish a bureaucracy, provided that one has asthe Secretariat has near-unlimited amounts of other peoplesmoney to pay for it. But it is all but impossible to kill a

bureaucracy once it has become established, except byrevolution.

How will the world government develop? The EU, whoseofficials were present at Cancun in unbecomingly largenumbers, is the role-model. Once a sufficient critical mass of

taxpayers cash and governments consent has been won and,at Cancun, the Secretariat won all that it had so long plannedfor, and more the momentum of the panjandrum becomesunstoppable, like a snowball rolling down an endless slope,growing ever larger as it crushes everything in its wake.

To the long-suffering citizens of the West, the establishment ofa lavishly-funded, atheistic-humanist, bureaucratic-centralist

world government with real but carefully-unaccounted wealthand real but carefully-concealed powers has two principalconsequences. First, it is and will continue to be expensive.Students rioting and attacking members of the Royal Family

with sticks in London would realize, if they were capable ofthought, that the money already paid out by their true-believinggreen government to Save The Planet is already more or lessequal to the entire cost of their tuition and accommodation

while in college. Were it not for the global warming nonsense,their fees could and would be met in full, as those of previousgenerations were.

Secondly, the advent of global government-by-stealth marks thecraven political abdication of the West. In particular, it marksthe end of democracy worldwide. No ordinary citizens will haveany right whatsoever to elect by universal secret ballot those

who will in future regulate them and tax them. Where now arethe uppity Bostonians who, incensed by a modest British tax ontheir tea, poured it not into their teapots but into the harbor,precipitating the American revolution that brought true, radicaldemocracy not only to the States of the Union but to manyother nations whose peoples admired what the Founding

Fathers had achieved?

Now, all but the appearance is gone. Congress will still beelected, but it will increasingly be subject to and answerable tothe new world power. Few will notice at first: the media will notwillnot tell them. Monckton of Brenchley

T

Editorial : : Global Governance Is HereMainstream Media Missed the Real Significance of Cancun


4/38

4

Letting the real-world data speak outEFORE we began producing the Monthly CO2 Reports, itwas easy for global warming profiteers to pretend, and

repeatedly to state, that global warming is getting worse,

and that the climate is changing faster than expected. Now theyare unable to get away with such falsehoods as easily as before.

The centerpieces of our monthly series of graphs showing what ishappening in the real world are our CO2 and temperature graphs,now regarded as the definitive standard worldwide.

Our CO2 concentration graphs show changes in real-world CO2concentration as measured by monitoring stations worldwide andcompiled by NOAA. We also calculate and display the least-squareslinear-regression trend on the real-world data. Because this trend hasbeen very close to a straight line since late 2001, it is a better guideto future CO2 concentration than the UNs projections that we alsodisplay, based on its A2 business as usual scenario the one thatcomes closest to reality at present. The one difference is that, forclarity, we zero the UNs projections to the start -point of the linearregression trend on the real-world data.

The UN predicts that, this century, CO2 concentration will riseexponentiallyat an ever-increasing ratetowards 836 [730, 1020]parts per million by volume in 2100. In reality, however, for tenyears CO2 concentration has been following an exponential curvetowards just 618 ppmv by 2100. If this trend continues, the UNscentral estimate of CO2 concentration is excessive.

Our global-temperature graphs show changes in real-worldtemperature at or near the Earths surface. Each temperature graph

represents the mean of two satellite datasets: the monthly lower-troposphere anomalies from the satellites of Remote SensingSystems, Inc., and of the University of Alabama at Huntsville. Wedo not use the Hadley/CRU or NCDC/GISS datasets: the Climate-gate scandal has shown these to be unreliable.

On each graph, the anomalies are zeroed to the least element in the

dataset. For clarity, the IPCCs range of predictions is zeroed to thestart-point of the least-squares linear-regression trend on the real-world data. Since late 2001, global temperature has been falling.

To preserve consistency with the IPCCs published formulae forevaluating climate sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 enrichment, theIPCCs projections are evaluated directly from its projected

exponential growth in CO2 concentration using the IPCCs ownlogarithmic formula for equilibriumtemperature change adjusted fortransient warming, yielding a net near-linearrange of projections.

Equilibrium change final temperature response when the climate

has settled down after an external perturbation is greater than thetransientchange predicted by the UN. However, on the A2 scenariothat we use, the difference by 2100 is just 0.5 C (0.9 F). Therefore,when the UN and other scientists say that global warming in the pipeline will go on for thousands of years, just 0.5 C ofadditional warming is all that they are talking about.

B

SPPI Monthly CO2 Report : : Our GraphsYour Monthly Update On What Is Really Happening With The Climate


5/38


6/38


7/38

7

Projecting the past decades CO2 trend to 2100 cuts IPCC forecasts

The dark-blue line shows CO2s actual path, well below the exponential-growth curves (bounding the pale blue region) predicted bythe IPCC in its 2007 report. Note that our graphs use true exponential curves, not the supra-exponential curves of the IPCC (whichnevertheless says its A2 projections for CO2 are exponential).If CO2 continues on its present path, the IPCCs central temperature projectionfor the year 2100 must be considerably reduced.Data source:NOAA.


8/38

8

The 30-year global warming trend is just 2.9 F (1.6 C) per century

Global temperature for the past 30 years has been undershooting the IPCCs currently-predicted warming rates (pink region). Thewarming trend (thick red line) has been rising at well below half of the IPCCs central estimate. The El Nino of 2010 has now ended, andtemperatures have fallen back to the long-run trend-line. Data source: SPPI index, compiled as the arithmetic mean of the monthly globallower-troposphere temperature anomalies of Remote Sensing Systems Inc. and the University of Alabama at Huntsville. SPPI no longer usesany terrestrial-temperature datasets, because they have proven unreliable.


9/38

9

Hardly any global warming since the turn of the millennium

For almost a decade since the turn of the millennium on 1 January 2001, the trend in global temperatureshas been small. The IPCCspredicted equilibrium warming path (pink region) bears no relation to thefar lesser rate of global warming that has been observed in the21stcentury to date. Note the very sharp peak in global temperature in early 2010, caused by a strong El Nio Southern Oscillation. Now thatthe El Nio has ended, it is unlikely that 2010 will set a new global instrumental-era temperature record. The previous record was set in theEl Nio year of 1998.Source:SPPI global temperature index, the mean of the RSS and UAH datasets.


10/38

10

RSS satellite global temperature record since 1 January 2001

Remote Sensing Systems satellite recordsince the turn of the millennium on 1 January 2001 shows a minuscule warming trend inglobal temperatures over the present decade.Source:RSS Inc.


11/38

11

UAH satellite global temperature record since 1 January 2001

The University of Alabama at Huntsvilles recently-revised satellite recordsince the turn of the millennium on 1 January 2001echoes the RSS dataset in showinga slight warming trend in global temperatures over the decade. However, this warming trend, at just 0.9C per century, is nothing like as high as the IPCC predicts. The contrast between the RSS and UAH graphs exemplifies data uncertainties.Source: UAH.


12/38

12

Sea level continues to rise more slowly than the UN predicts

Sea level (anomaly in millimetres) is rising at just 1 ft/century: The average rise in sea level over the past 10,000 years was 4 feet/century. During the 20th

century it was 8 inches. As recently as 2001, the IPCC had predicted that sea level might rise as much as 3 ft in the 21st

century. However, this maximum was

cut by more than one-third to less than 2 feet in the IPCCs 2007 report, with a central estimate of 1 ft 5 in. Mrner (2004) says sea level will rise about 8inches in the 21

stcentury. Mr. Justice Burton, in the UK High Court, bluntly commented on A l Gores predicted 20ft sea-level rise as follows: The

Armageddon scenario that he depicts is not based on any scientific view. A fortiori, James Hansens prediction of a 246ft sea-level rise, made in an articlein The Guardian in 2009 is mere rodomontade. Source: University of Colorado, 2010, release 5.


13/38

13

The steady sine-wave of Arctic sea-ice extent

Arctic sea ice extent (millions of square kilometers: left scale): The redcurve for this year shows that the extent of sea ice in the

Arctic has fallen from above the 10-year mean a few months ago to track the 2008 curve. In 2005, 2007, and 2008, sea-ice extent during theSeptember low season was below the 30-year minimum. Arctic summer sea ice covered its least extent in 30 years during the late summer of2007. However, NASA has attributed that sudden decline to unusual poleward movements of heat transported by currents and winds: theArctic climate has long been known to be volatile. The decline cannot have been caused by global warming, because, as the SPPI GlobalTemperature Index shows, there has been very little warming globally during the past decade. At almost the same moment as summer sea-ice extent reached its 30-year minimum in the Arctic, sea-ice extent in the Antarctic reached its 30-year maximum, though the latter eventwas very much less widely reported in the media than the former.Source:IARC JAXA, Japan, December 2010.


14/38

14

... and the same graph from the Danish Meteorological Institute

Recovering to the mean: The Danish Meteorological Institutes graph of Arctic sea-ice extent (millions of square km on leftscale: 2010 in black ) shows Northern-Hemisphere sea ice returning to what has been normal in the past decade. Short-run

fluctuations either side of the decadal mean are to be expected, and do not indicate long-run changes. Source: DanMet.


15/38

15

... and summer minimum sea-ice extent grew 24% in 2 years

Arctic summer sea-ice extent (purple) increased in 2008 and 2009, and in 2010 is similar to 2008, a little below the meanfor the past decade, though well within natural variability. Since there has been little global warming since 1995, and since thedecline in summer sea-ice extent has occurred only in the past five years, the decline that occurred in 2007 cannot be attributed toglobal warming. A paper by NASA in 2008 attributed the 2007 summer sea-ice minimum to unusual poleward winds andcurrents bringing warm weather up from the tropics. A few weeks after the Arctic sea-ice minimum, there extent of Antarctic seaice reached a 30-year maximum. The Arctic was in fact 2-3 F warmer in the 1930s and early 1940s than it is today.

A recent paper suggesting that the Arctic is now warmer than at any time for 2000 years is based on the same defective data,and is by the same authors, as the UNs attempt to abolish the medieval warm period in its 2001 report. In fact, for most of the

past 10,000 years the world and by implication the Arctic was appreciably warmer than it is today. One of the authors ofthat report had previously told a fellow-researcher, We have to abolish the medieval warm period. However, papers by almost800 scientists from more than 450 institutions in more than 40 countries over more than 20 years establish that the medievalwarm period was real, was global, and was warmer than the present.Source: University of Illinois, 15 September 2009.


16/38

16

Antarctic sea-ice extent has shown an up-trend for 30 years

Antarctic sea-ice extent (anomaly from 1979-2000 mean, millions of km2: left scale) was recently close to its third-highest in 30years. This fact has scarcely been reported in any mainstream news medium. The peak extent, which occurred late in 2007, followed shortlyafter the decline in Arctic sea ice in late summer that year. In the summer of 2009, less Antarctic sea-ice melted than since records began 30years previously, confirming that whatever warming is occurring is not global.Source: University of Illinois, December 2010.


17/38

17

The regular heartbeat of global sea-ice extent: steady for 30 years

Planetary cardiogram showing global sea-ice area (millions of square kilometers: left scale): There has been a very slight

decline in the trend (red) of global sea-ice extent over the decades, chiefly attributable to loss of sea ice in the Arctic during the summer,which was well below the mean in 2007, with some recovery in 2008 and a further recovery in 2009. However, the 2008 peak Arctic sea-iceextent was exactly on the 1979-2000 mean, and current sea-ice extent is not far below the 1979-2000 mean. The decline in summer sea-iceextent in the Arctic, reflected in the global sea-ice anomalies over most of the past decade, runs counter to the increase in Antarctic sea-iceextent over the period, suggesting that the cause of the regional sea-ice loss may not have been global warming. Source: University ofIllinois, December 2010.


18/38

18

Hurricane, typhoon, and tropical-cyclone activity is at a 30-year low

Global and northern-hemisphere tr0pical-cyclone accumulated cyclone energy index, 1979-2010 (ACE units: 104 kts2):Global tropical-cyclone, typhoon, and hurricane activity remains close to its 30-year low. Since Hurricane Katrina (August 2005) and the

publication of high-profile papers in Nature and Science, global tropical cycloneAccumulated Cyclone Energy has collapsed by half. Thiscontinues the now 5-consecutive-years global crash in tropical cyclone activity. While the Atlantic on average makes up about 10% of theglobal, yearly hurricane activity, and the 2009 hurricane season in the North Atlantic was only half as active as normal, the other 90% ofworldwide tropical-cyclone activity has also been significantly depressed since 2007.

The graph shows the 24-month running sum of tropical-cyclone energy from January 1979 for the entire globe (top) and the NorthernHemisphere only (bottom). The difference between the two time series is the Southern Hemisphere total. Intensity estimates of southern-hemisphere cyclones are often missing before the graphs start-date.Source:Ryan Maue, Florida State University, December 2010.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energyhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy


19/38

19

Combined tropical-storm and hurricane record: 40 years decline

Combined frequency of tropical storms and hurricanes around the world and in each hemisphere (12-month running total of storms: left axis) shows a small decline over the past 40 years of global warming. So far, there is little evidence in the hurricane record to suggest that warmer weatherproduces more hurricanes. Source:Dr. Ryan Maue, Florida State University, December 2010.


20/38

20

Global hurricane days are at their lowest in 30 years

Hurricane activity in decline: The 24-month running sum of hurricane days around the globe has been at its lowest level in30 years during the 2009 season, confirming the findings of hurricane experts such as Dr. Chris Landsea to the effect that awarming world need not expect hurricanes to become more frequent, longer, or more severe.Source:Ryan Maue, Florida StateUniversity, 2010.


21/38


22/38

22

Almost no trend in North Atlantic hurricane activity for 60 years

North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index (ACE: left scale), 1950-2010: The ACE is a 24-month running sumthat represents the combined frequency, intensity, and duration of hurricanes and tropical cyclones. Historically, the North

Atlantic hurricane activity is usually characterized as a feast or a famine, making definitions of what is normal difficult. In"active" periods (such as 1995-present), a "normal" season sees much hurricane activity compared to inactive periods (such as1970-1994). In the above figure, the light blue line indicates the linear trend of North Atlantic accumulated cyclone energy from

1950-2009 a 60-year period of decent records and the line is almost flat: no trend since 1950. When seasonal forecasters likeGray & Klotzbach at CSU and Tropical Storms Risk announce their upcoming seasonal forecast, they represent an entire season'sworth of activity in an integrated sense either by predicting counts/frequency or ACE. However, there is no reason to assume thatthe entire hurricane season between June and November will experience uniform favorable or unfavorable atmospheric andoceanic conditions for tropical-cyclone formation. Indeed, the North Atlantic tends to spurt activity. For instance, one storm afteranother may form from African Easterly Waves and trek across the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes during the

peak of the season.Source:Ryan Maue, Florida State University, 2010.


23/38

23

Solar activity is heading for what may be a small 2013 maximum

Monthly solar sunspot numbers (black curve, smoothed in blue, and predicted in red) since January 2000: Sunspotactivity had been less than for 100 years, but is now recovering as the new solar cycle gets under way. However, the recovery ofsolar activity is behind the predicted curve. Note that the currently-predicted solar maximum for 2013-14 is considerably lessintense than the previous solar maximum in 2000-01. However, the solar flux reaching the top of the atmosphere typically variesby only 0.15% between the minimum and the maximum of the ~11-year solar cycle. Source: ISES/NOAA/SWPC, Boulder, CO,USA, December 2010.


24/38

24

The minima of solar cycles 23 and 24 compared

Number of days without any visible sunspots during the previous solar minimum (blue) and the present solar minimum(red).During the last ~11-year solar minimum, in September/October 1996, the longest period without sunspots was 37 days,compared with 44 days in March/April 2009 and 51 days in July/August 2009.Source: Jan Alvestad, February 2010.


25/38

25

The stupefying cost of the Waxman/Markey Climate Bill

This postcard has all the key figures on the Waxman/Markey climate Bill in one place. Bottom line: to prevent the 3.4 Cwarming projected by the UN for this century under the A2 carbon emissions scenario would take 1360 years even if the Bill were

fully implemented, and would cost $250 trillion. Source: SPPI calculations.


26/38

26

Why cap-and-trade will not change the global climate one iota

A pointless Bill: The Waxman/Markey Bill will cost billions to implement, but will reduce US carbon emissions hardly at all,unless the numerous exceptions in the Bill are implemented, in which event it will not reduce US carbon emissions at all. Source:www.breakthrough.org.
http://www.breakthrough.org/http://www.breakthrough.org/http://www.breakthrough.org/


27/38

27

The Waxman/Markey Climate Bill will scarcely affect temperatures

Temperature change predicted by the UN, and (dotted line) adjusted to reflect the negligible impact of theWaxman/Markey Climate Bill, which might cut temperatures by 0.2-0.02 F by 2100, at a cost of $18 trillion. Source: Chip

Knappenberger: cost estimates $180 bn/year from the White House.


28/38

28

The Waxman/Markey Climate Bill will scarcely affect sea level

Sea-level change predicted by the UN, and (dotted line) adjusted to reflect the negligible impact of the Waxman/MarkeyClimate Bill, which might cut sea-level by less than half an in by 2100, at a cost of $18 trillion.Source: Chip Knappenberger: costestimates $180 bn/year from the White House.


29/38

29

Buying public opinion with tax-free dollars Global warming is no longer a major concern with

the public. Yet private foundations alone havecontributed almost $1 billion to climate-extremist

propaganda groups in the US alone in the past decade,as publicly-available tax filings reveal. And that isbefore one counts the vast taxpayer-funded publicsubsidies to climate propaganda groups.

Private buyers of public opinion on global warming

William & Flora Hewlett Foundation $503,110,692 (20032010)

Pew Charitable Trusts $73,438,620 (1998 - 2006)

David & Lucile Packard Foundation $48,441,964 (19992009)

McKnight Foundation $48,025,000 (20082010)

Energy Foundation $38,500,495 (2003 - 2009)

Doris Duke Charitable Foundation $25,412,600 (20072009)

Who got most of the cash to buy public opinion

ClimateWorks Foundation $514,905,182 for 5 years support

Alliance for Climate Protection $27,750,000

Environmental Defense $25,268,538

Clean Air Task Force $4,917,635

Some individual beneficiaries

Gore Alliance for Climate Protection $114,000,000 (2006-9)

ClimateWorks $10,000,000 (2008)

Open Society Institute $5,000,000 (2008)

Richard and Rhoda Goldman Fund $7,500,000 (20072008)

The Lincy Foundation $15,000,000 (2008)

The Skoll Foundation $20,000,000 (20082009)Silicon Valley Community Foundation $10,000,000 (2009)

The Benificus Foundation $10,000,000 (2008)

Grants made to the Energy Foundation alone

ClimateWorks: $31,100,000 (2008)

David & Lucile Packard Foundation $64,584,800 (2001-8)

Doris Duke Charitable Foundation $42,080,000 (2007-8)

John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur

Foundation $12,000,000 (2005)MacArthur Foundation $17,000,000 (2005-6)

McKnight Foundation $51,429,780 (2001-10)

Mertz Gillmore Foundation $8,515,000 (2002-8)

SPPI Monthly CO2 Report : : Special FocusFunds For Climate Extremism: Who Pays?


30/38

30

Your global-warming ready reckonerHere is a step-by-step, do-it-yourself ready-reckoner which will let you use a pocket calculator to make your owninstant estimate of global temperature change in response to increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration.

STEP 1: Decide how far into the future you want your forecast to go, and estimate how much CO 2 will be in the atmosphere at that date.Example:Let us do a forecast to 2100. The Monthly CO2 Report charts show CO2 rising to C =575parts per million by the endof the century, compared withB = 385 parts per million in late 2008.

STEP 2: Next, work out theproportionate increase C/B in CO2 concentration. In our example, C/B = 575/385 = 1.49.

STEP 3: Take the natural logarithm ln(C/B) of the proportionate increase. If you have a scientific calculator, find the natural logarithmdirectly using the ln button. If not, look up the logarithm in the table below. In our example, ln 1.49 = 0.40.

n 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20 1.25 1.30 1.35 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 1.70 1.75 1.80 1.85 1.90 1.95 2.00

ln 0.05 0.10 0.14 0.18 0.22 0.26 0.30 0.34 0.37 0.41 0.44 0.47 0.50 0.53 0.56 0.59 0.62 0.64 0.67 0.69

n 2.05 2.10 2.15 2.20 2.25 2.30 2.35 2.40 2.45 2.50 2.55 2.60 2.65 2.70 2.75 2.80 2.85 2.90 2.95 3.00

ln 0.72 0.74 0.77 0.79 0.81 0.83 0.85 0.88 0.90 0.92 0/94 0.96 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.06 1.08 1.10

STEP 4: Choose a climate sensitivity coefficientcfrom the table below

Coefficientc ... SPPI minimum SPPI central SPPI maximum IPCC minimum IPCC central IPCC maximum

... for C 0.7 1.4 2.1 2.9 4.7 6.5

... for F 1.25 2.50 3.75 5.25 8.5 11.75

STEP 5: Find the temperature change Tby multiplying the natural logarithm of the proportionate increase in CO2 concentration byyour climate sensitivity coefficient. In our example well choose the SPPI central estimatec = 2.50 F. Then

T = cln(C/B) = 2.50 x 0.40 = 1.0 F,your predicted manmade warming to 2100. Its as simple as that!

SPPI Monthly CO2 Report : : Your ZoneHow to calculate the effect of CO2 on temperature for yourself


31/38

31

Why cutting carbon emissionscan never be cost-effective

A very simple calculation demonstrates definitively and conclusively that any attempt to address the imagined (and imaginary) problem ofglobal warming is doomed not to be cost-effective. NOAAs global CO2 concentration record shows 388 parts per million by volume in the

atmosphere in 2009/10. Throughout this millennium CO2 concentration has been rising in a straight line at 2ppmv/year, as our CO2concentration graphs show every month. How much warming will this 2 ppmv/year increase cause? Using the formula for the UNs implicitcentral estimate of CO2s warming effect, taken from our Ready Reckoner, we can work this out thus: the warming, in Celsius degrees, is 4.7times the Naperian logarithm of [(388+2)/388], which works out as 0.024 C per year, or less than one-fortieth of a Celsius degree. So weshould have to shut down the entire global carbon economy for 41 years, without any right to use an auto, train, or plane, to prevent just 1Celsius degree of warming. However, the UN has exaggerated CO2s warming effect at least fourfold, so make that 160 years. Closing theentire carbon economy would in effect close the entire global economy. And all this for the sake of a non-solution to a non-problem.


32/38


33/38

33

Working with naturally-fertilized eggs of the common sea star Crossaster papposus, which they collected and transferred to five-liter cultureaquariums filled with filtered seawater (a third of which was replaced every four days), Dupont et al. tested this hypothesis by regulating the pHof the tanks to values of either 8.1 or 7.7 by adjusting environmental CO 2 levels to either 372 ppm or 930 ppm, during which time theydocumented three results: settlement success as the percentage of initially free-swimming larvae that affixed themselves to the aquarium walls;larval length at various intervals; and the degree of calcification achieved. The three researchers report that precisely the opposite of what isoften predicted actually happened. The echinoderm larvae and juveniles were positively impacted by ocean acidification. They found thatlarvae and juveniles raised at low pH grow and develop faster, with no negative effect on survival or skeletogenesis within the time-frame ofthe experiment (38 days). The sea stars' growth rates were twice as high in the acidified seawater: C. papposus seem to be not only more thansimply resistant to ocean acidification, but are also performing better.

The Swedish scientists conclude that in the future ocean, the direct impact of ocean acidification on growth and development potentially willproduce an increase in C. papposus reproductive success ... a decrease in developmental time will be associated with a shorter pelagic periodwith a higher proportion of eggs reaching settlement, leading the sea stars to become better competitors in an unpredictable environment. Notbad ... especially for a creature that makes its skeletal rods, plates, test, teeth, and spines from a substance that is 30 times more soluble thannormal calcite.

References: Additional references from this review can be found athttp://www.co2science.org/articles/V13/N34/B3.php.

The response of reef islands to warming-induced sea-level rise Webb, A.P. and Kench, P.S. 2010. The dynamic response of reef islands to sea-level rise: Evidence from multi-decadal analysis of island change in the Central

Pacific. Global and Planetary Change72: 234-246.

Webb and Kench report: Under current scenarios of global climate-induced sea-level rise, it is widely anticipated that low-lying reef islandswill become physically unstable and be unable to support human populations over the coming century. It is also widely perceived that islanderosion will become so widespread that entire atoll nations will disappear, rendering their inhabitants among the first environmental refugees ofclimate change.

Members of the Maldives' Cabinet donned scuba gear in October 2009 and used hand signals to conduct business at an underwater meeting,

which was staged to highlight the imagined threat of global warming to the very existence of their country's nearly 1200 coral islands. At themeeting, the cabinet signed a document calling on all nations of the Earth to reduce their carbon emissions, based on climate-extremist claimsthat the greenhouse effect they say these emissions produce is raising temperatures, melting glacial and polar ice, and causing seawater toexpand and inundate low-lying islands.
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V13/N34/B3.phphttp://www.co2science.org/articles/V13/N34/B3.phphttp://www.co2science.org/articles/V13/N34/B3.phphttp://www.co2science.org/articles/V13/N34/B3.php


34/38

34

In a study designed to explore the seriousness of this situation, Webb and Kench examined the morphological changes of 27 atoll islands in thecentral Pacific in four atolls that span 15 degrees of latitude from Mokil atoll in the north (641.01' N) to Funafuti in the South (830.59' S) usinghistorical aerial photography and satellite images over periods ranging from 19 to 61 years. During that period, instrumental records indicated arate of sea-level rise of 2 mm/year in the central Pacific. The two researchers one from Fiji and one from New Zealand conclude: There isno evidence of large-scale reduction in island area despite the upward trend in sea level ... The islands have predominantly been persistent orexpanded in area on atoll rims for the past 20-60 years.

Some 43% of the islands increased in area by more than 3%, with the largest increases of 30% on Betio (Tarawa atoll) and 28.3% on Funamanu(Funafuti atoll). The results of this study contradict widespread perceptions that all reef islands are eroding in response to recent sea level rise... Reef islands are geomorphically resilient landforms that thus far have predominantly remained stable or grown in area over the last 20-60years. Given this positive trend, reef islands may not disappear from atoll rims and other coral reefs in the near-future as speculated.

The ups and downs of tropical cyclone activity in the western hemisphere

Wang, C. and Lee, S.-K. 2009. Co-variability of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and the eastern North Pacific. Geophysical Research Letters 36:10.1029/2009GL041469.

The authors write that in the western hemisphere tropical cyclones can form and develop in both the tropical North Atlantic and eastern North

Pacific oceans, which are separated by the narrow landmass of Central America ... in comparison with tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic,those in the eastern North Pacific have received less attention, although tropical-cyclone activity is generally greater in the eastern North Pacificthan in the North Atlantic (e.g., Maloney and Hartmann, 2000; Romero-Vadillo et al., 2007). Exploring how the tropical-cyclone activities ofthe North Atlantic and eastern North Pacfic ocean basins might be related to each other over the period 1949-2007, as well as over the shorterperiod of 1979-2007, Wang and Lee used a number of different datasets to calculate the index of accumulated cyclone energy, which accountsfor the frequency, intensity and duration of all tropical cyclones in a given season.

The two US scientists discovered that tropical-cyclone activity in the North Atlantic varies out-of-phase with that in the eastern North Pacificon both interannual and multidecadal timescales ... When tropical-cyclone activity in the North Atlantic increases (decreases), tropical-cycloneactivity in the eastern North Pacific decreases (increases) ... the out-of-phase relationship seems to [have] become stronger in the recentdecades," as evidenced by the fact that the interannual and multidecadal correlations between the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific

accumulated cyclone-energy indices were0.70 and0.43 respectively from 1949-2007, but0.79 and0.59 respectively from 1979-2007.As for the combined tropical-cyclone activity over the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific ocean basins as a whole, there is little variabilityon either interannual or multidecadal timescales. Real-world empirical data suggest that the variability that does exist over the two basins hasgrown slightly weaker as the earth has warmed over the past six decades. This finding runs counter to climate-extremist claims that earth'shurricanes or tropical cyclones should become more numerous, more intense and longer-lasting as temperatures rise.

References: Additional references from this review can be found athttp://www.co2science.org/articles/V13/N44/C2.php.
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V13/N44/C2.phphttp://www.co2science.org/articles/V13/N44/C2.phphttp://www.co2science.org/articles/V13/N44/C2.phphttp://www.co2science.org/articles/V13/N44/C2.php


35/38

35

Does warming reduce permafrost thaw rates?

Blok, D., Heijmans, M.M.P.D., Schaepman-Strub, G., Kononov, A.V., Maximov, T.C. and Berendse, F. Shrub expansion may reduce summer permafrost thaw inSiberian tundra. Global Change Biology16: 1296-1305.

The authors write that there are fears that if the Earth's permafrost thaws much of the carbon stored will be released to the atmosphere, as willgreat quantities of the greenhouse gas methane (further exacerbating warming). Al Gore and other climate-extremists have claimed that this isalready happening at an accelerating rate. Michael Mann and Lee Kump (2008) in theirDire Predictions book make a similar claim.

Quite to the contrary, however, Bloket al. report that it has been demonstrated that increases in air temperature sometimes lead to vegetationchanges that offset the effect of air warming on soil temperature.

Bloket al. conducted a study in the Kytalyk nature reserve in the Indigirka lowlands of north-eastern Siberia, where they measured the thawdepth or active-layer thickness of the soil, the ground heat flux, and the net radiation in 10-meter-diameter plots with and without a natural coverof bog birch (Betula nana) shrubs.

Results indicated that experimentalB. nana removal had increased active-layer thickness significantly by an average of 9% at the end of the

2008 growing season, compared with the control plots, which implies reduced warming in the more shrub-dominated plots, and that in theundisturbed control plots with varying natural B. nana cover, active-layer thickness decreased with increasing B. nana cover ... showing anegative correlation between B. nana cover and active-layer thickness, which again implies reduced warming in the more shrub-dominatedplots.

Bloket al. say their results suggest that the expected expansion of deciduous shrubs in the Arctic region, triggered by climate warming, mayreduce summer permafrost thaw ... Increased shrub growth may thus partially offset further permafrost degradation by future temperatureincreases.

The six scientists add that permafrost temperature records do not show a general warming trend during the last decade (Brown andRomanovsky, 2008), despite large increases in surface air temperature ; that during the previous decade, data from several Siberian Arctic

permafrost stations do not show a discernible trend between 1991 and 2000 (IPCC, 2007); and that a recent discovery of ancient permafrostthat survived several warm geological periods suggests that vegetation cover may help protect permafrost from climate warming (Froese et al.,2008)". They say this phenomenon could feedback negatively to global warming, because the lower soil temperatures in summer would slowdown soil decomposition and thus the amount of carbon released to the atmosphere.

References: Additional references from this review can be found athttp://www.co2science.org/articles/V13/N42/C1.php.
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V13/N42/C1.phphttp://www.co2science.org/articles/V13/N42/C1.phphttp://www.co2science.org/articles/V13/N42/C1.phphttp://www.co2science.org/articles/V13/N42/C1.php


36/38

36

The Middle Ages were warmer than today: Jinchuan peat marsh, Jilin Province, China

Hong, Y.T., Jiang, H.B., Liu, T.S., Zhou, L.P., Beer, J., Li, H.E., Leng, X.T., Hong, B. and Qin, X.G. 2000. Response of climate to solar forcing recorded in a 6000-year 18O time-series of Chinese peat cellulose. The Holocene10: 1-7.

Working with cores extracted from a peat bog west of Jinchuan Town, Huinan County, Jilin Province, China (4220'N, 12622'E), the authorsdeveloped a 6000-year high-resolution 18O record of peat plant cellulose, which they interpret as reflecting changes in regional surface air

temperature. Their results (see graph) show that the Medieval Warm Period, which was preceded by the Dark Ages Cold Period and followedby the Little Ice Age, was considerably warmer than the current warm period.


37/38

37

Middle Ages: real, global, warmer than today

The Climategate emails reveal some of the tricks the IPCCs leading scientists used in an attempt falsely to abolish theMedieval Warm Period, so that they could pretend that todays temperatures are warmer than at any time in the past 1300 years. However, this graph from www.science-skeptical.de, a German website, shows graphs from scientific papers that examinedproxy temperature data from all parts of the world. Visit the ScienceSkeptical.de website for an interactive version of the graph.
http://www.science-skeptical.de/http://www.science-skeptical.de/


38/38

38

This Christmas card from Prof. Nils-Axel Mrner will be much appreciated by thoseof our northern-hemisphere readers who have endured exceptional snow this winter.

SPPI CO2 Report November 2010 - Lord Monckton

Documents

Transcript of SPPI CO2 Report November 2010 - Lord Monckton