Society Of Actuaries International Experience Study
description
Transcript of Society Of Actuaries International Experience Study
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Society Of ActuariesInternational Experience Study
Bill Horbatt
Chair, SOA IESWG
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Background on
International Experience Study
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IES is a Joint Venture
• SOA Research Department• IAA Mortality Working Group• Corporate sponsors• SOA International Section• Local Actuarial Associations
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IES Outreach Effort
• No Cost to participating companies
• SOA confidentially compiles data
• Local actuaries supervision
• SOA / IAA expert advice
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Finances
Contributions
Company EU ISC SOA
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Finances
Expenses
Tool Travel
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Finances
• MOST IMPORTANT
– Volunteer Time!– Over 50 companies have participated– Over 1,000 hours invested
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Results
International Experience Study
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Results
• Argentina**• Caribbean*• Estonia• Poland**• Philippines• Vietnam
* sample **small sample
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10 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63 68 73 78 830
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Argentina Exposure
Male
Female
Issue Age
Po
licy
Yea
rs
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10 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63 68 73 78 830
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Caribbean Exposure
MaleFemale
Issue Age
Polic
y Ye
ars
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10 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63 68 73 78 830
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Estonia Exposure
MaleFemale
Issue Age
Polic
y Ye
ars
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10 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63 68 73 78 830
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Philippines Exposure
Male
Female
Issue Age
Po
licy
Yea
rs
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10 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63 68 73 78 830
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Poland Exposure
Male
Female
Issue Age
Po
licy
Yea
rs
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10 23 28 33 38 43 48 53 58 63 68 73 78 830
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Vietnam Exposure
Male
Female
Issue Age
Po
licy
Yea
rs
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Results - Caution
• All results are tentative• Limited editing and quality analysis• Early experience
– Limited staff experience– New System controls will be prospective
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Results
Policy Persistency
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 190%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Lapse Rates
ArgentinaCaribbeanEstoniaPhilippinesPolandVietnam
Policy Duration
Laps
e Ra
te
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Results
Actual to Tabular Mortality
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10 22 27 32 37 42 47 52 57 62 670%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Actual vs. Expected Mortality
ArgentinaCaribbeanEstoniaPhilippinesPolandVietnam
Issue Age
% o
f 197
7-80
SO
A Se
lect
& U
ltim
ate
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Results
Additional Results
• Caribbean
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0 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 800
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
Caribbean Exposure
Insurance
Annuity
Issue Age
Po
licy
Yea
rs
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0 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 800%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Caribbean Actual to Tabular Mortality
Insurance
Annuity
Issue Age
% C
IA 1
986-
92
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Insurance A/T Annuity A/T 10 Year Persistency0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Caribbean Trend from 2002-4 to 2005-7
2002 to 2004
2005 to 2007
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Status
• Experience Study Tool 2.0 released• Hong Kong Actuarial Society
– Using SOA Tool
• Other countries - incomplete– Brazil– Guatemala
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• Ronora Stryker, Research Actuary, SOA– [email protected]
• Bill Horbatt, Chair SOA IESWG– [email protected]
• Martin Stevenson, Chair IAA MWG– [email protected]
Contact Details