This issue of the Satellite Applications Catapult’s quarterly Small Satellite Market Intelligence report provides an update of the small satellites launched in Q4 2020 (1st October to 31st December 2020). This edition also includes a short article on the evolving requirements and functionalities of the ground segment.

Q4

2020

SMALL SATELLITE MARKET INTELLIGENCEREPORT

02SMALL SATELLITES LAUNCHED IN Q42020

OVERVIEW The fourth quarter of 2020 saw 354 small satellites successfully launched into orbit. This figure is the highest recorded from any quarter yet and brings the total number of small satellites launched in 2020 to 1163 – over triple the previous record, set in 2019, of 375 satellites. Given the fact that the majority of 2020 saw the world faced with COVID-19, shutting down travel and economies, this new record highlights the small satellite industry’s resilience as it continues to grow through a global pandemic. However, it should be noted that SpaceX accounted for 833 of these 1163 satellites with their Starlink constellation.

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Number of Small Satellites Launched

Of the 354 small satellites launched this quarter, SpaceX’s Starlink satellites account for around 67%, with 240 satellites launched. This continues the trend of 2020, where much of the statistics are skewed by this constellation. With SpaceX having already launched 955 Starlink satellites (of which 895 are still in orbit), the resumption of operations this quarter of the OneWeb constellation, as well as a number of planned launches of other company constellations, 2021 may see this market share being spread more evenly across a number of different organisations.

Note: The mathematical model line in the graph above (simulating an accelerating market uptake followed by a levelling off) represents a general trend and not a prediction per year.

03APPLICATIONS

Applications are defined by the primary objective of the mission as categorised below:

• Communications: the objective of the mission is to transmit or receive signals to/from a user terminal or gateway.• Technology/Scientific: the objective of the mission is to gather knowledge to better understand physical

phenomena or to test the functionality of the payload or equipment. • Earth observation/Remote sensing: the objective of the mission is to provide imagery or data relating to the

Earth or its atmosphere.Small Satellites Launched: by Application

Percentage Share of Small Satellites by Application

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Q4 2020 - Earth Observation/Remote Sensing

Q4 2020 - Communications

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The most popular application in this quarter was Communications. Of the 354 small satellites launched in Q4, 306 of these fell within this category. As mentioned, the majority of these satellites (240) can be attributed to SpaceX. The rest of the numbers are made up by 4 other entities; OneWeb (36), Swarm Technologies (24), Guodian Gaoke (3) and the Russian Federal Space Agency (3). Each of these satellites are part of their relative organisation’s constellations, further highlighting the shift in preference towards multi-satellite constellation networks for means of communication.

Constellations were also the popular choice within the Earth Observation/Remote Sensing (EO) category. Q4 saw 25 satellites launched in this category, with 10 belonging to Satellogic’s Aleph-1 constellation, 6 to Spire’s Lemur constellation, 4 to Kleos Space’s KSM constellation, 2 to UnseenLabs’ constellation and a single demonstrator satellite for Synspective’s planned 25 satellite StriX constellation. Chinese startup Spacety launched the world’s first satellite propelled by an iodine electric thruster (developed by ThrustMe) with their Beihangkonshi 1 EO satellite, and the final in this category was a 6U developed jointly by the Ethiopian Space Science and Technology Institute (ESTTI) and Chinese Smart Satellite Technology to provide EO services to China and African countries.

There was a total of 13 small satellites launched within the Technology/Scientific category in Q4. Of these, 6 were launched by universities, 3 by government entities and the rest by commercial companies.

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Satelliteclassification Satellitesubclassification Associated wet mass range

Small Satellite < 500 kg Mini-satellite 100 kg - 500 kg Micro-satellite 10 kg – 100 kg Nano-satellite 1 kg – 10 kg Pico-satellite 0.1 kg – 1 kg

SIZE AND MASS

This quarter saw the 2020 trend of mini-satellites contributing to the most launches continue, with 283 out of the 354 satellites launched falling within this category. SpaceX and OneWeb contributed to the vast majority of the mini-satellites launched, with 240 and 36, respectively. The rest of the mini-satellites were launched by 4 different organisations.

Nanosatellites continued to be the popular choice among academic institutions, with 4 of the 6 university satellites launched in this quarter belonging to this mass category.

Swarm Technologies held the highest pico-satellite market share, launching 24 out of the 25 pico-satellites in this quarter, as they added a second batch of 0.25U cubesats to their SpaceBEE IoT constellation. To date, they have launched 36 of a planned 150 satellite constellation. As a result, Swarm Technologies can be expected to continue to have the majority share of this category, as no other large pico-satellite constellations have been announced.

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Small Satellites Launched by Mass Cateogry

05ORGANISATION

Commercial companies continued to dominate the small satellite market, capturing 97% of the share, with academic and government entities holding 2% and 1%, respectively. Although SpaceX did contribute to the majority of commercial launches this quarter (240 out of 342), when taking their satellites out of the equation, commercial companies still hold a vast majority of the market with 102 satellites, compared to 8 for academic entities and 4 for government organisations. All 4 government launches were from Russia – 3 by the Russian Federal Space Agency (for communications purposes) and 1 by the Russian Aerospace Forces (for tests of advanced microdevices for orientation and astronavigation).

This quarter continues the trend witnessed over the last decade, where commercial organisations contribute to the majority of small satellite launches, due in large part in most recent years to the popularity of multi-satellite constellations.

Q4 2020 - Commercial Q4 2020 - Academic Q4 2020 - Government

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Small Satellites Launched by Organisation - Quarter 4 2020

Small Satellites Launched by Organisation

06LAUNCH

Launch Vehicles: Number of Launches and Satellites Launched

Launch Orbits

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Antares

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Successful Launches Failed Launches

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Successful Launches Failed Launches

There were 17 small satellites launches in the fourth quarter of 2020, including one failed launch. The Falcon-9 from SpaceX and the Long March rocket from the Chinese Space Agency were tied top this quarter, with 4 launches a piece. Rocket Lab’s Electron made 3 successful launches this quarter, making this their most successful quarter to date and bringing their total in 2020 to 6 – which is joint record with their 2019 total. The Indian Space Research Organisation successfully returned the PSLV rocket to service this quarter, its first since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, launching a payload of 10 satellites, including 4 as part of Spire’s Earth observation Lemur constellation.

This quarter saw the maiden flight of the small solid fuel orbital rocket Ceres-1 (GX-1) from Chinese company Galactic Energy. The launch took place in November, carrying a payload of 1 communications small satellite from Guodian Gaoke.

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Other SSO Polar ISS

Arianespace’s Vega launch failure occurred in November of this month. The failure caused the loss of 2 spacecraft: the SEOSAT-Ingenio Earth observation satellite for Spain and the TARANIS small satellite for France. The cause of the failure was put down to human error, due to incorrectly installed cables in a control system.

There were 7 launches to orbits within the Other category, with 4 of these being from the Falcon rocket, 2 from the Long March and 1 from the PSLV. The second most popular orbit category was the Sun Synchronous Orbit with 6 launches. Half of these were Rocket Lab’s Electron satellites, 2 belong to Long March and 1 to PSLV. The 2 polar orbits were both launched by Soyuz, and the single delivery to the ISS was completed by the Antares rocket.

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Introduction The last decade has seen a massive shift in the dynamic of the space industry. Once dominated by government funded projects, with some academic research missions, the New Space commercial juggernaut has been steadily rising (and rising), capturing more of the market share each year. This growth can be attributed to a number of interacting factors including increased levels of private funding, increasing public sector interest, and investment and advances in technology. In addition, both launch and satellite costs are declining meaning access to space has never been so affordable or commercially attractive.

This rapid evolution of launch and satellites saw ground segment growth, while certainly improving consistently, seem comparatively stunted and at risk of being left behind. The space industry is calling for more productive satellite infrastructure and ground segment at a lower cost, creating a host of opportunities for ground segment organisations if they can evolve economically.

What are Satellite Ground Stations? The satellite ground station or ground segment can be thought of as the brain of the satellite network. They are fairly self-explanatory – ground stations are the ‘on the ground’ element of the satellite system network.

Ground stations are designed to provide real-time communication with satellites. Operated by a crew, these stations send radio signals to the satellite (uplink) and receive data from the satellite (downlink). This data can be analysed at the ground station itself or relayed to another location for analysis. The data could contain information about the satellites critical systems allowing them to be monitored closely by mission operators and decision makers, or it could be data captured as a result of the satellite’s function.

Ground Stations at a Turning Point Modern satellites are collecting a vast amount of data. Orders of magnitude are more with each new generation, and they can deliver at much lower bandwidth prices. They are going through a significant expansion both in terms of capability and demand. The last few years have witnessed an inflection point in the ground station industry, with the rise in popularity of High Throughput Satellite (HTS) systems and satellite constellations and their increasing connectivity and data requirements. To keep up with this demand, the number of ground stations is steadily growing, which is expected to continue, driven by new installations in emerging regions. As well as this, the number of antennas per site is foreseen to increase in the coming years, to further serve the next generation of satellites requirements. Beyond meeting these new technical requirements, as well as managing wider and more numerous satellite operators, ground stations will need to do this at a reasonable price that will attract the New Space players. Increasing the number of ground stations and antennas is only a part of a wider solution, requiring dramatic and rapid advances in the systems.

Evolution Drivers from the Market Side The New Space era has opened the door for a wave of new satellite operators to make their mark on the space industry. Taking advantage of the affordability of access to space, these operators provide space-based solutions to their clients. As part of this solution, in order to provide the best service possible, these companies require communications with their in-orbit satellites which rely on the ground station. However, ground stations involve significant financial investment for the infrastructure, skilled personnel, and a myriad of regulatory hurdles. Due

Evolution of the Ground Segment

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to the start-up heavy nature of the New Space industry, many of these new players do not have the resources necessary for setting up their own ground station networks. These issues are particularly prevalent in companies whose satellites operate on higher frequency bands or in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Satellites in LEO usually require a global network of ground stations in order to deliver their data at regular intervals. This has created a vacuum in the ground station market, with satellite operators looking for a ground station solution without having to invest in their own dedicated infrastructure. This market demand has been answered by the supply of a ground station solution – Ground Segment as a Service (GSaaS).

Ground Segment as a Service Ground Segment as a Service (GSaaS) aims to answer the needs of satellite operators who are looking to outsource their ground segment activities. It can be seen as a one stop shop for these operators, as it mutualises ground segment infrastructure and allows satellite owners to focus on the core of their business – data.

Outsourcing of ground segment activities has been around for decades. During the early days of satellite operations in the 1970-80s, most satellite operators were large companies and chose to communicate with their satellites through their own ground stations. However, they soon realised that to ensure a regular connection, a global network of ground stations was needed. Due to the different financial and regulatory barriers previously mentioned, satellite operators began partnerships with ground segment service providers such as The Swedish Space Corporation (SSC) and Kongsberg Satellite Services (KSAT). These providers have expanded their ground segment services and have ground stations spread globally, including in harsh environments such as polar areas, enabling them to provide connectivity services to a wide variety of customers.

The offer of these services was specifically targeted towards large satellite operators with their complex mission requirements and expensive satellites who would pay premium prices for a dedicated service. However, this model no longer fits the needs of the majority of satellite operators. These New Space missions are shorter, satellite development times have been reduced, and ground segment budgets are much smaller. They require a more simple, flexible and cost-effective way of communicating with their satellites, paving the way for GSaaS.

GSaaS Business Models There are two distinct GSaaS models observed within the industry: 1. Dedicated ground network as a service2. Ground station capacity aggregators

Dedicated Ground Network as a Service This model involves companies who have a dedicated ground segment network, with ground stations located globally, that rent out their “white space” (available capacity) to customers. Based on the user’s requirements they may choose to use a single station or to downlink their data over a number of different ground stations. Using this model, the capacity, latency, data transfer path and cost of an operation can be optimised. Companies using this particular model include Leaf Space, KSAT, SSC and ATLAS Space Operations, among others.

Ground Station Capacity Aggregators Two of the main barriers to entry into the ground station market are the regulatory requirements and capital intensity involved in the building, maintenance and operations of ground stations. Companies with existing ground station networks find themselves with a leading edge in this market. In an innovative effort to overcome these, some organisations have gone down the route of ground station capacity aggregation. These companies offer spare capacity on existing ground stations installed by other legacy industry operators or agencies. Some of the main players who fall under this category include Infostellar, RBC Signals, AWS Ground Station and Azure Orbital.

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Evolution Drivers from Technology Side Major advances in technology both in space and on Earth are driving innovation within the ground segment market. There are a few notable technologies that are expected to influence the evolution of the ground segment, namely: optical communications and intersatellite links, Flat Panel Antennas, and Artificial Intelligence.

Optical Communications and Intersatellite Links (ISL)The use of optical communications compared to conventional radio frequency communications presents a number of benefits including higher data rates, increased data transmission security, absence of interferences and absence of spectrum licensing required.

However, optical communications performance between the Earth and space can be negatively affected by weather conditions such as atmospheric turbulence. To overcome these issues, optical communications are being increasingly used for intersatellite links in space. This involves user satellites communicating through laser links with Geostationary Orbit (GEO) satellites, that act as relays, and in turn can transfer this data to the ground station. Using ISL with GEO satellites enables almost constant coverage for LEO satellites that generally have low and short contact windows, offering capacity to communicate for longer periods of time.

To benefit from this, satellites must have a Laser Communication Terminal (LCT), which are relatively heavy. As a result, only large satellites (over 500kg) are able to integrate such solutions currently. However, LCTs weighing up to 15kg are currently being designed and tested by SpaceX for their Starlink satellites, which would enable small satellite communications via laser links.

The progress of this technology could have a massive impact on ground segment operations, as with more ISL communications, fewer ground stations will be needed. Ground segment providers will need to adapt to ensure that these technologies do not advance to the detriment of their business.

Flat Panel Antennas Flat Panel Antennas (FPA), also known as Phased Array Antennas or Electronically Steered Antennas, are an array of antennas that are computer controlled. Although they are not new, industry considers them to have high future potential. These antennae create narrow beams of radio waves that can be electronically steered to point in any direction, without having to physically move the antenna (unlike the classic dish antennas).

Due to their flat design, they are also suitable for installations on cars, commercial ships or aircraft, to provide mobile connectivity solutions. These antennas provide other benefits too. With the absence of mechanical parts, they are much easier to configure and carry out maintenance on. As the FPA can be electronically steered, they also offer the advantage of easier communication with various satellites simultaneously, with the ability to switch from one satellite to the next.

However, current Flat Panel Antennas are very expensive when compared to parabolic antennas. Flat Panel Antennas consist of thousands of small elements that need to be in a phased alignment with each other. They also need to operate over long periods of time, at varying temperatures and in harsh environments, increasing complexity further and driving up prices.

Many industry experts believe that inexpensive flat-panel antennas will be a game-changer. Cheaper FPA could enable ground segment operators to track more satellites, while reducing the number of antennas needed to do so, thus decreasing maintenance and operational costs.

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Artificial Intelligence Artificial intelligence (AI) is redefining the landscape for a myriad of industries, and the space sector is not an exception. Its applications are far reaching, with both in-space and on-ground uses, transforming how data is processed.

Integrated within a satellite, AI can enable on-board processing of data, allowing the satellites to filter the relevant data to downlink to Earth. Current Earth observation missions providing Very High Resolution (VHR) images require large amounts of bandwidth to downlink these images. As such, the antennas used will spend a large amount of time downloading data, some of which may not be useful, thus wasting communication time. AI on-board a satellite can process the useful data to optimise the contact windows with ground stations. A solution such as this will allow for more efficient scheduling, resulting in capacity for new clients, and increased revenues for ground segment providers.

Artificial intelligence can also be used in ground stations to automize data handling, which will be key in the optimisation of future mega satellite constellations. Through AI, ground station providers can offer additional value-added services to operators, such as data processing and analysis, thus unlocking new business opportunities.

11CONCLUSION

As we move forward into the future, the increase in the number of satellites is expected to continue with the rising popularity of satellite mega constellations. The subsequent increase in amounts of data and connectivity requirements will push the evolving ground segment to innovate faster. The solutions will be enabled through the advances of technology such as discussed above to improve capability and decrease price. This, in turn, will result in even more affordable access to space. Just as rapid advances in satellite technology are driving these changes in the ground segment, the innovation cycle will continue, with the improved ground segments enabling an even more powerful and sophisticated satellite network of the future.

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Disclaimer: whilst every effort has been made to provide accurate and up to date information, we recognise that this might not always be the case. If any reader would like to contribute edits or suggestions to our reports, kindly email the team and we will make the amendments.

Q4

2020

ContactThe Small Satellite Market Intelligence report is designed as a free data source to share information that is easy to access and use. We welcome feedback on other data points that would be of value to include. You can contact us at:

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Copyright © Satellite Applications Catapult Limited 2020 All rights are reserved. You may reuse reasonable portions of this document provided that such reproductions are properly attributed to us with: ‘Copyright © Satellite Applications Catapult Limited 2020’. Whilst we strive to ensure that the information is correct and up to date, it has been provided for general information only and as such we make no representations, warranties or guarantees, whether express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness.