Slides jose falck zepeda nas study economics december 2016 original submtted
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BOARD ON AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES Genetically Engineered Crops: Experiences and Prospects The Economic Impacts José Falck-Zepeda Senior Research Fellow International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Presented at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine Forum of Scientific Society Leaders on Genetically Engineered Crops: Experiences and Prospects, December 7, 2016, National Academy of Sciences Building 2101 Constitution Ave NW Washington DC.
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Transcript of Slides jose falck zepeda nas study economics december 2016 original submtted
BOARD ON AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES
Genetically Engineered Crops: Experiences and Prospects
The Economic Impacts
José Falck-ZepedaSenior Research FellowInternational Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Presented at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine Forum of Scientific Society Leaders on Genetically Engineered Crops: Experiences and Prospects, December 7, 2016, National Academy of Sciences Building 2101 Constitution Ave NW Washington DC.
Committee’s Process – The economics
• Examined the economics relevant literature (270+ articles including several meta analysis just in developing countries
• Attempted to describe the context and economic issues related to GE crop adoption
BOARD ON AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES
Photo credits: Milo Mitchel IFPRI, Denisses McLean ZamoranoUniversity, Jose Yorobe Jr. UP-LB, Jose Falck Zepeda IFPRI
Experiences: Economic Effects
CONCLUSION: Available evidence generally indicates favorable economic outcomes for producers of GE maize, cotton, and soybeans although there is high heterogeneity.
CAVEAT: Although GE crops have provided economic benefits to many small-scale farmers in the early years of adoption, enduring and widespread gains will depend on institutional support and access to profitable local and global markets.
CAVEAT: Need to carefully examine sampling methods, sampling and statistical biases and corrections used, methods and approaches for estimation. They can help explain robustness of results.
BOARD ON AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES
China - Bt cotton case studies
• Huang et al., (multiple 2002- 2004); Pray et al. (2011)
– Bt cotton in China has had favorable effects on farm profits, insecticide use, health, and the environment
– Revenue was slightly higher from Bt cotton than from non-Bt cotton in 2004 and 2006 but roughly 40 percent higher in 2007.
– 2006 and 2007 results not as robust: few farmers growing non-Bt
• Fok et al. (2005) ;Pemsl et al., 2005; Yang et al., 2005; Xu et al., 2008
– Favorable effects of Bt cotton adoption in the Yellow River region
– Adoption has not been as successful in the Yangtze River Valley.
– Lower pest pressure in Yangtze River Valley than in the Yellow River region, while cotton varieties deployed seem to be less adapted to agro-climatic conditions
BOARD ON AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES
China - longer term Bt cotton studies
• Qiao (2015) data from 1997 to 2012 corrected for bias
– Increased seed costs offset by reductions in insecticides, labor costs, and yield damage, significant variability
– Economic benefit of Bt cotton totaled 33 billion yuan over 15 years.
• Huang et al. (2010) used farm-level data collected in 1999–2007, 16 villages, 4 provinces, 525 households that planted Bt cotton, non-Bt cotton, or both on 3,576 plots of land.
– Target insect declined over the 10-year period surveyed
– Evidence that target pest suppression benefited GE and Non-GE farmers
– Continued insecticide application rates decrease over time
BOARD ON AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES
Philippines Bt/RR maize
• Yorobe and Smale (2012): stratified
random sample of maize farmers (254 GE-212 non-GE hybrid users in 17 villages in Northern Isabela(Luzon) and South Cotabato (Mindanao) 2007– 2008, Biases and unobserved variables corrections
– GE maize adoption increased yields and net farm, off-farm, and household income compared with non- GE hybrids used
– Adopting farmers are better off –higher income, more education, and a favorable view of technology
BOARD ON AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES
Philippines Bt/RR maize
• Afidchao et al. (2014): purposive sampling, indicative notstatistically representative of population – Small-scale farmers adopted GE maize
after large-scale farmers
– GE maize farmers adopted because they were curious, expected better yields, insect control and reduced input costs
– About 25% of survey respondents who adopted GE maize indicated that technology not to have been worthy investment
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Experiences:Economic Effects – Personal Comments
BOARD ON AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES
• Biotechnology and GE Crops are still only technologies
• Similarities and differences with other technologies
• Actual and potential benefits from GE technology adoption. Important tool to consider, prudent not to disregard as an option especially in developing countries
• Significant developments in the public sector in developing countries (VR beans in Brazil, Bt cotton in China and India, DT sugarcane in Brazil and Indonesia, DT maize and Bt Cowpea in Africa….etc. )
• Several crops/traits combinations of interest especially to developing countries - many which have productivity limitations that can probably be only addressed through biotechnology means- will be available to producers if we manage to resolve institutional and regulatory issues.
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José Benjamin Falck-Zepeda, Ph.D.Senior Research Fellow
IFPRI 2033 K Street NW
Washington, DC 20006-1002USA
[email protected] bio/pubs:
http://www.ifpri.org/staffprofile/jose-falck-zepeda
Blog: http://socioeconomicbiosafety.wordpress.com/
Follow me on Twitter: @josefalck
