Falck Zepeda et al ICABR presentation on the insect resistant and herbicide tolerant maize...
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“ Adoption Impacts and Access to Innovation in in Honduras ” José Falck Zepeda 1 , Denisse McLean 2 , Patricia Zambrano 1 , Arie Sanders 2 , Maria Mercedes Roca 2 , Cecilia Chi-Ham 3 Allan Bennett 3 1 IFPRI 2 Zamorano University 3 UC Davis PIPRA Presentation made at 18 th ICABR Conference, 1-20 June 2014 Safari Park Hotel, Nairobi, Kenya © 2014 UC-Davis and IFPRI
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This study analyzes the socio-economic considerations of genetically modified (GM) maize adoption in Honduras and their relation to farmer’s characteristics influencing their decision making process durign crop year 2013. This presentation highlights the preliminary result from a joint University of California- Davis, IFPRI and Zamorano University study in Honduras. This is the second round of surveys conducted by IFPRI and Zamorano University in the country. GM maize has a great potential of reducing pest or weed damage and thus produce higher yields compared to the conventional counterpart. Damage reduction can lead to an increase in farmer’s income, if managed appropriately. During the last decade the adoption of GM maize in Honduras has increased steadily from 2,000 ha in 2002 to more than 36,000 ha in 2012 (Cerritos, personal communication 2014). In the case of Honduras, GM maize may contain protection for specific target insects through the introduction of the Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) gene into the genetic material of the plant. A second trait is the introduction of herbicide tolerance (HT) to withstand the herbicide glyphosate which allows its application. Herbicide tolerance enables weed control without causing crop damage. These two traits may be available individually or together incorporated into the maize germplasm.
Transcript of Falck Zepeda et al ICABR presentation on the insect resistant and herbicide tolerant maize...
“Adoption Impacts and Access to
Innovation in
in Honduras”
José Falck Zepeda1, Denisse McLean2, Patricia Zambrano1, Arie Sanders2, Maria Mercedes Roca2, Cecilia Chi-Ham3 Allan Bennett3
1 IFPRI
2 Zamorano University
3 UC Davis PIPRA
Presentation made at 18th ICABR Conference, 1-20 June 2014 Safari Park Hotel, Nairobi,
Kenya
© 2014 UC-Davis and IFPRI
The Honduras maize sector Agriculture important to the economy
Maize is essential part of the diet
Increasingly dependent on imports
Low productivity and heavy damage due to pests
and diseases
By 2013, 75 thousand hectares with hybrids and
GM 15% area planted
GM estimated around 30-40 thousand hectares
Maize in Honduras is grown mostly for food/feed
Honduras: The political landscape
Favorable policy and economic conditions
Strategic interest in aligning agricultural policies with major economic and trade partners
Honduran government provided specific policy support for easing a transition towards biotechnologies and other technologies
‘To facilitate the process to incorporate hybrids
and transgenic seeds in 25% of the area planted at
the national level by 2014’
Honduras Agricultural and Livestock Ministry goal
Public Agricultural and Food Sector Strategy
Relevant Honduras policy
actions
• Established Biosafety Framework and
Regulations
• Incorporated biotechnology in
National Food Self Sufficiency
Strategy
• Coordinated a joint agricultural and
environmental political agenda
Enabling biosafety regulatory approach
Biosafety issues are handled by the Ministries of Agriculture
and Environment
Pragmatist approach
A technical National Biosafety Committee with sound
academic credentials
A clear understanding of Risk Analysis
Focus on risk assessment only, whereas other considerations
may be part of the final decision making process
Only country in Central America
cultivating GMOs for food
BT (MON810), RR (NK603), Herculex 1 ,
YGVTPro (MON89034) traits approved for
commercialization
GM maize provided excellent
target pest control
Bt yield advantage 856-1781 Kg ha-1
yield
Bt maize yields preferred even by
risk averse producers
100% higher seed cost than
conventional hybrid
Institutional issues important
Photos credit: © Sanders and Trabanino 2008
Falck-Zepeda, J., A. Sanders, C. Rogelio Trabanino, & R. Batallas-Huacon.
Caught Between Scylla and Charybdis: Impact Estimation Issues from the Early
Adoption of GM Maize in Honduras. AgBioForum, 15(2), 138-151. Available on
the World Wide Web: http://www.agbioforum.org.
2008 GM maize crop cycle in Honduras:
Results from our first survey
The 2013 (second) survey to observe experiences of
conventional & GM maize farmersEconomic, social and agronomic impacts
Farmers by maize typeSize
Total< 7 hectares > 7 hectares
Conventional only 58 25 83
GM only 39 57 96
Both types of maize 11 19 30
Total 108 101 209
o We chose a representative sample of maize farmers from the
main maize producing state in Honduras
But... our data analysis shows that outliers and
sampling biases are present and relevant to
outcomes
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Rob
ust sta
nda
rdiz
ed r
esid
uals
0 500 1000 1500 2000Robust_distance
Observation ID Yield Cook’s D
42 6.500 0.053
84 5.200 0.385
99 7.475 0.033
116 4.543 0.039
120 9.100 0.020
121 2.507 0.022
129 2.839 0.021
131 6.500 0.688
132 3.250 0.054
143 1.817 0.028
152 5.200 1.230
155 7.800 0.036
169 1.083 0.020
170 6.045 2.381
173 0.975 0.030
174 8.060 0.032
182 0.195 0.060
200 5.200 0.033
212 7.800 0.032
217 1.300 0.020
222 9.100 0.022
230 6.500 0.026
“The classical instrumental variables (IV) estimator is extremely sensitive to the
presence of outliers in the sample. This is a concern as outliers can strongly dis-
tort the estimated effect of a given regressor on the dependent variable. Although
outlier diagnostics exist, they frequently fail to detect atypical observations since
they are themselves based on non-robust (to outliers) estimators. Furthermore,
they do not take into account the combined influence of outliers in the first and
second stages of the IV estimator” Desbordes and Verardi, Stata Journal 2012
Maize yields and net income: raw and
sampling bias/outlier adjusted averagesYield
(mt/ha)
Raw averages Averages adjusted
for sampling bias
and/or outliers
GM plots 5.3 4.78 - 5.02
Conventional plots 3.7 3.7
Difference 1.6 1.08 - 1.32
Estimate of the impact of sampling
bias and/or outliers (%) 17 - 32%
Income
(US$/ha)
Raw averages Averages adjusted
for sampling bias
and/or outliers
GM plots 1774 1584 - 1754
Conventional plots 1244 1244
Difference 530 340 - 510
Estimate of the impact of sampling
bias and/or outliers (%) 4 - 36%
Summary
Positive economic benefits of using GM maize technology in Honduras for current adopters
Results of our two studies show that GM maize reduce damage, in some cases yield 29-35% higher compared to the conventional hybrid
Production costs per hectare of GM maize are higher than HYV varieties GM => Higher seed price but with lower
pesticide use
GM maize significantly increased farmer’s net benefits per hectare
Need to address multiple institutional and policy issues
Why is the aggregate adoption rate is low and
growing relatively slowly when the return to the
GM technology is so high in Honduras?
Typical low adoption constraints
Lack of adequate information and knowledge about modern maize
varieties
Farm size and liquidity/budget constraints
Access to productive inputs
Serious problems of other kind of pests and diseases
Black tar spot disease makes current GM technology less attractive
for the farmers.
Seed companies’ ability to deal with infrastructural issues and
producer geographical dispersion – “the scale issue”
Why is the aggregate adoption rate is low and growing
relatively slowly when the return to the GM technology is
so high in Honduras? (cont.)
Small market outlet for GM maize
Maize processors linked to government programs
Differentiated white vs. yellows maize markets
Government/processor/producer pricing agreement tied to
international prices
Impact of price fluctuations (?)
Policies to support the “smallest of the smallholders”
Market uncertainty
Arie Sanders
Maria Mercedes Roca
Miljian Villalta
Alan B. Bennett
Cecilia Chi-Ham
Denisse McLean
José Falck-Zepeda
Patricia Zambrano
Sandra Mendoza. Participatory
research consultant
Research funded by:
José Benjamin Falck-Zepeda, Ph.D.Senior Research Fellow / Leader Policy Team Program
for Biosafety Systems
IFPRI
2033 K Street NW
Washington, DC 20006-1002
USA
Brief bio/pubs: http://www.ifpri.org/staffprofile/jose-falck-zepeda
Blog: http://socioeconomicbiosafety.wordpress.com/
Follow me on Twitter: @josefalck
