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Transcript of Slide 1The Wave Model - Last part Validation of wind & wave analysis using satellite & buoy....
The Wave Model - Last part Slide 1
Validation of wind & wave analysis using satellite & buoy.
Altimeters onboard ERS-1/2, ENVISAT and Jason
Quality is monitored daily.
Monthly collocation plots
SD 0.5 0.3 m for waves (recent SI 12-
15%)
SD 2.0 1.2 m/s for wind (recent SI 16-
18%)
Wave Buoys (and other in-situ instruments)
Monthly collocation plots
SD 0.85 0.45 m for waves (recent SI 16-
20%)
SD 2.6 1.2 m/s for wind (recent SI 16-
21%)
The Wave Model - Last part Slide 2
WAM first-guess wave height againstENVISAT Altimeter measurements
(June 2003 – May 2004)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 WAM WAVE HEIGHTS (M)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
EN
VIS
AT
WA
VE
HE
IGH
TS
(M
)
SYMMETRIC SLOPE CORRELATION SCATTER INDEX STANDARD DEVIATION BIAS (ENVISAT - WAM) MEAN ENVISAT MEAN WAM ENTRIES STATISTICS
REGR. CONSTANT REGR. COEFFICIENT
1 . 0 5 0 9 . 9 6 5 7 . 1 3 3 4 . 3 3 8 9 . 1 0 5 5
2 . 6 4 5 3 2 . 5 3 9 8 7 3 2 1 1 0
- . 0 3 8 3 1 . 0 5 6 6
1 5 15 30 50 100 300 500 1000 30000
The Wave Model - Last part Slide 3
Global wave height RMSE between ERS-2 Altimeter and WAM FG (thin navy line is 5-day running mean ….. thick red line is 30-day running mean)
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
0.55
01/08/97 01/08/98 01/08/99 01/08/00 01/08/01 01/08/02 02/08/03
Wav
e H
eig
ht
RM
SE
(E
RS
2 -
WA
M F
G)
[
m]
4D
VA
R (
25/
11
/97
)
T3
19
(0
1/0
4/9
8)
Co
up
ling
(28
/06
/98
)
Use
of
U1
0 (0
9/0
3/9
9)
NG
co
rre
ctio
n (
13
/07
/99
)
60
Le
vels
(1
2/1
0/9
9)
Pe
aki
ne
ss Q
C (
11
/04
/00
)
12
Hr
4D
VA
R (
11
/09
/00
)
T5
11
(2
0/1
1/0
0)
ZG
M (
01
/06
/01
)
Qu
ikS
CA
T (
21
/01
/02
)
Ya
w c
on
trol
(0
4/0
3/0
2)
Gu
stin
ess
(0
8/0
4/0
2)
SA
R a
ssim
ilatio
n (
13
/01
/03
)
1998
2000
1999
2001
2002
2003
No
ER
S-2
full
cove
rag
e (
22
/06
/03
)
The Wave Model - Last part Slide 4
Analysed wave height and periods against buoy measurements for February to April 2002
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
HS (
m)
mo
de
l
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
H S (m) buoy
0
HS ENTRIES:
1 - 3
3 - 8
8 - 22
22 - 62
62 - 173
173 - 482
482 - 1350
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Peak Period Tp (sec.) buoy
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Pea
k P
erio
d T
p
(se
c.)
m
od
el
TP ENTRIES:
1 - 3
3 - 6
6 - 14
14 - 33
33 - 79
79 - 188
188 - 450
SYMMETRIC SLOPE = 0.932CORR COEF = 0.956 SI = 0.175RMSE = 0.438 BIAS = -0.150LSQ FIT: SLOPE = 0.879 INTR = 0.134BUOY MEAN = 2.354 STDEV = 1.389MODEL MEAN = 2.204 STDEV = 1.278ENTRIES = 29470
SYMMETRIC SLOPE = 1.008CORR COEF = 0.801 SI = 0.190RMSE = 1.746 BIAS = 0.072LSQ FIT: SLOPE = 0.813 INTR = 1.785BUOY MEAN = 9.160 STDEV = 2.743MODEL MEAN = 9.232 STDEV = 2.784ENTRIES = 17212
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Mean Period Tz (sec.) buoy
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Me
an
Pe
rio
d T
z (s
ec
.) m
od
el
TZ ENTRIES:
1 - 3
3 - 6
6 - 12
12 - 26
26 - 59
59 - 133
133 - 300
SYMMETRIC SLOPE = 0.985CORR COEF = 0.931 SI = 0.105
RMSE = 0.779 BIAS = -0.149LSQ FIT: SLOPE = 0.989 INTR = -0.069
BUOY MEAN = 7.306 STDEV = 1.979MODEL MEAN = 7.157 STDEV = 2.102
ENTRIES = 6105
Wave height Peak period Mean period
The Wave Model - Last part Slide 5
J93 j J94 j J95 j J96 j J97 j J98 j J99 j J00 j J01 j J02 j J03 j J04 j J05
months (3 month running average)
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
RM
SE
(m)
0001 WAVE HEIGHT R.M.S.E. from January 1993 to March 2005
all
MAGICS 6.9.1 muspell - wab Thu May 5 10:02:40 2005 J-R BIDLOT
Global wave height RMSE between buoys and WAM analysis
The Wave Model - Last part Slide 6
Quality of wave forecast
Compare forecast with verifying analysis.
Forecast error, standard deviation of error ( ), persistence.
Period: three months (January-March 1995).
Tropics is better predictable because of swell:
Daily errors for July-September 1994Note the start of Autumn.
New: 1. Anomaly correlation
2. Verification of forecast against buoy data.
N.H. Tropics S.H.
tHs1 0.08 0.05 0.08
The Wave Model - Last part Slide 7
Significant wave heightanomaly correlationandst. deviation of errorover 365 daysfor years 1997-2004
Northern Hemisphere (NH)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Forecast Day
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100%DATE = 20040101 TO 20041231
AREA=N.HEM TIME=12 MEAN OVER 366 CASES
ANOMALY CORRELATION FORECAST
HEIGHT OF WAVES SURFACE LEVEL
FORECAST VERIFICATION 20042003200220012000199919981997
MAGICS 6.7 icarus - dax Tue Jan 11 08:59:01 2005 Verify SCOCOM
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Forecast Day
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1DATE = 20040101 TO 20041231
AREA=N.HEM TIME=12 MEAN OVER 366 CASES
STANDARD DEVIATION OF ERROR FORECAST
HEIGHT OF WAVES SURFACE LEVEL
FORECAST VERIFICATION 20042003200220012000199919981997
MAGICS 6.7 icarus - dax Tue Jan 11 08:59:01 2005 Verify SCOCOM * 1 ERROR(S) FOUND *
The Wave Model - Last part Slide 8
Significant wave heightanomaly correlationandst. deviation of errorover 365 daysfor years 1997-2004
Tropics
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Forecast Day
40
50
60
70
80
90
100%DATE = 20040101 TO 20041231
AREA=TROPICS TIME=12 MEAN OVER 366 CASES
ANOMALY CORRELATION FORECAST
HEIGHT OF WAVES SURFACE LEVEL
FORECAST VERIFICATION 20042003200220012000199919981997
MAGICS 6.7 icarus - dax Tue Jan 11 08:59:02 2005 Verify SCOCOM
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Forecast Day
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5DATE = 20040101 TO 20041231
AREA=TROPICS TIME=12 MEAN OVER 366 CASES
STANDARD DEVIATION OF ERROR FORECAST
HEIGHT OF WAVES SURFACE LEVEL
FORECAST VERIFICATION 20042003200220012000199919981997
MAGICS 6.7 icarus - dax Tue Jan 11 08:59:02 2005 Verify SCOCOM * 1 ERROR(S) FOUND *
The Wave Model - Last part Slide 9
Significant wave heightanomaly correlationandst. deviation of errorover 365 daysfor years 1997-2004
Southern Hemisphere (SH)
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Forecast Day
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100%DATE = 20040101 TO 20041231
AREA=S.HEM TIME=12 MEAN OVER 366 CASES
ANOMALY CORRELATION FORECAST
HEIGHT OF WAVES SURFACE LEVEL
FORECAST VERIFICATION 20042003200220012000199919981997
MAGICS 6.7 icarus - dax Tue Jan 11 08:59:02 2005 Verify SCOCOM
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Forecast Day
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4DATE = 20040101 TO 20041231
AREA=S.HEM TIME=12 MEAN OVER 366 CASES
STANDARD DEVIATION OF ERROR FORECAST
HEIGHT OF WAVES SURFACE LEVEL
FORECAST VERIFICATION 20042003200220012000199919981997
MAGICS 6.7 icarus - dax Tue Jan 11 08:59:02 2005 Verify SCOCOM * 1 ERROR(S) FOUND *
The Wave Model - Last part Slide 10
RMSE of * significant wave height, * 10m wind speed and * peak wave period of different models as compared to buoy measurements for February to April 2005
0 1 2 3 4 53rd generation fc data only, fc from 0 and 12Z for 0502 to 0504
0
0.10.20.3
0.40.50.6
0.70.80.9
1
RM
SE
(m
)
SIGNIFICANT W AVE HEIGHT ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR at all 69 buoys
ECMWF METOF FNMOC MSC NCEP METFR DWD
0 1 2 3 4 53rd generation fc data only, fc from 0 and 12Z for 0502 to 0504
0
0.4
0.8
1.2
1.6
2
2.4
2.8
3.2
3.6
4
RM
SE
(m
/s)
10m W IND SPEED ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR at all 69 buoys
ECMWF METOF FNMOC MSC NCEP METFR DWD
0 1 2 3 4 53rd generation fc data only, fc from 0 and 12Z for 0502 to 0504
0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.4
2.7
RM
SE
(s
ec
.)
PEAK PERIOD ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR at all 63 non UK buoys
ECMWF METOF FNMOC MSC NCEP METFR DWD
The Wave Model - Last part Slide 11
3. Benefits for Atmospheric Modelling 3.1. Use as Diagnostic Tool
Discovered inconsistency between wind speed and stress and resolved it.
Over-activity of atmospheric model during the forecast: mean forecast error versus time.
The Wave Model - Last part Slide 12
3.2. Coupled Wind-Wave Modelling
Coupling scheme:
Impact on depression (Doyle).
Impact on climate [extra tropic].
Impact on tropical wind field ocean circulation.
Impact on weather forecasting.
ATM
WAM
t
u10
u10
t
u10
time
time
windww Skk
d,101.0
The Wave Model - Last part Slide 13
WAM – IFS Interface
A t m o s p h e r i c M o d e l
q T P
air
zi / L (U10, V10)
W a v e M o d e l
The Wave Model - Last part Slide 14
Simulated sea-level pressure for uncoupled and coupled simulations for the 60 h time
uncoupled coupled
956.4 mb 963.0 mb
Ulml > 25 m/s1000 km
The Wave Model - Last part Slide 15
Scores of FC 1000 and 500 mb geopotential for SH(28 cases in ~ December 1997)
coupleduncoupled
The Wave Model - Last part Slide 16
Standard deviation of error and systematic error of forecast wave height for Tropics
(74 cases: 16 April until 28 June 1998).
coupled
The Wave Model - Last part Slide 17
Global RMS difference between ECMWF and ERS-2 scatterometer winds
(8 June – 14 July 1998)
coupling
~20 cm/s (~10%) reduction
The Wave Model - Last part Slide 18
Change from 12 to 24 directional bins:Scores of 500 mb geopotential for NH and SH
(last 24 days in August 2000)