Severe Weather Warning Decision Making Research & Development Improvements

17 July 2006 Summer WAS*IS 2006Greg Stumpf – CIMMS/NWS/MDL

CIMMS / University of Oklahoma

NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory Decision Assistance Branch

Location: National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK

CIMMS / University of Oklahoma

NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory Decision Assistance Branch

Location: National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK

Gregory J. StumpfGregory J. Stumpf

Severe Weather Warning Decision Making Research & Development Improvements

Severe Weather Warning Decision Making Research & Development Improvements


National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL)

Mission

National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL)

Mission

To enhance the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) capabilities to provide accurate and timely forecasts and warnings of hazardous weather events. NSSL accomplishes this mission, in partnership with the National Weather Service (NWS), through

a balanced program of research to advance the understanding of weather processes

research to improve forecasting and warning techniques

development of operational applications

and transfer of understanding, techniques, and applications to the NWS.

NSSL is the sole NOAA agency responsible for the R&D of new applications and technology to improve NWS severe weather warning decision making.

To enhance the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) capabilities to provide accurate and timely forecasts and warnings of hazardous weather events. NSSL accomplishes this mission, in partnership with the National Weather Service (NWS), through

a balanced program of research to advance the understanding of weather processes

research to improve forecasting and warning techniques

development of operational applications

and transfer of understanding, techniques, and applications to the NWS.

NSSL is the sole NOAA agency responsible for the R&D of new applications and technology to improve NWS severe weather warning decision making.


NWS/MDL in NormanNWS/MDL in Norman

My former NSSL position was as group manager responsible for the development of severe weather warning decision making applications and algorithms.

In April 2004, I transferred to the NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory Decision Assistance Branch.

My location remained at NSSL in Norman

Act as a liaison to transfer severe weather research and application development at NSSL into NWS operations

Develop experimental warning decision making testbed for new remote-sensing technologies and new multiple-sensor warning applications

My former NSSL position was as group manager responsible for the development of severe weather warning decision making applications and algorithms.

In April 2004, I transferred to the NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory Decision Assistance Branch.

My location remained at NSSL in Norman

Act as a liaison to transfer severe weather research and application development at NSSL into NWS operations

Develop experimental warning decision making testbed for new remote-sensing technologies and new multiple-sensor warning applications


HistoryHistory

NSSL developed initial suite of single-radar algorithms for the WSR-88D Doppler Radar:

Detection, Diagnosis, and Tracking of storm cells, hail, mesocyclones, tornado vortex signatures.

NSSL developed initial suite of single-radar algorithms for the WSR-88D Doppler Radar:

Detection, Diagnosis, and Tracking of storm cells, hail, mesocyclones, tornado vortex signatures.


Legacy WDSSLegacy WDSS

NSSL designed its legacy Warning Decision Support System (WDSS) in the early 1990s.

Tested throughout the 1990s at various NWS offices nationwide.

NSSL designed its legacy Warning Decision Support System (WDSS) in the early 1990s.

Tested throughout the 1990s at various NWS offices nationwide.

WDSS Sites


One hour trend of storm parameters

One hour trend of storm parameters

Pop-up table alerting of

rapidly growing storms

Pop-up table alerting of

rapidly growing storms

Table ranking the

most severe storms

Table ranking the

most severe storms

Detects storms

and vortices

and forecasts

their movement

.

Detects storms

and vortices

and forecasts

their movement

.

Probability of tornado and damaging winds from neural network

Probability of tornado and damaging winds from neural network

Time-height trend information from 130 million data points

Time-height trend information from 130 million data points

Legacy Warning Decision Support System (WDSS)Legacy Warning Decision Support System (WDSS)


Legacy WDSSLegacy WDSS

Early in the project, employed some human factors engineers to help design the DSS.

Funding for the human factors component was cut early in the project.

Early in the project, employed some human factors engineers to help design the DSS.

Funding for the human factors component was cut early in the project.


WDSS Proof-of-ConceptTest Objectives

WDSS Proof-of-ConceptTest Objectives

To evaluate the operational utility of new severe weather algorithms and the decision support system display.

To expose NSSL developers and scientists to NWS operations to better understand user requirements.

Feedback surveys designed by the meteorologists (no other disciplines involved) were used to refine the applications.

To evaluate the operational utility of new severe weather algorithms and the decision support system display.

To expose NSSL developers and scientists to NWS operations to better understand user requirements.

Feedback surveys designed by the meteorologists (no other disciplines involved) were used to refine the applications.


WDSS ImplementationWDSS Implementation

Eventual operational implementation in NWS systems.

The radar algorithms were implemented into the WSR-88D system.

The WDSS concept was implemented as the NWS System for Convective Analysis and Nowcasting (SCAN).

Eventual operational implementation in NWS systems.

The radar algorithms were implemented into the WSR-88D system.

The WDSS concept was implemented as the NWS System for Convective Analysis and Nowcasting (SCAN).


NWS Decision Assistance Branch

NWS Decision Assistance Branch

Mission:Develop and implement a comprehensive suite of advanced tools covering the full scope of hydro-meteorological phenomena, other hazardous events, and NWS forecaster responsibilities

Along with SCAN:Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP)System on AWIPS for Forecasting and Evaluation of Seas and Lakes (SAFESEAS) Fog MonitorSystem for Nowcasting Winter Weather (SNOW)Fire Weather Monitor and Nowcasting (FIREMAN)

Mission:Develop and implement a comprehensive suite of advanced tools covering the full scope of hydro-meteorological phenomena, other hazardous events, and NWS forecaster responsibilities

Along with SCAN:Flash Flood Monitoring and Prediction (FFMP)System on AWIPS for Forecasting and Evaluation of Seas and Lakes (SAFESEAS) Fog MonitorSystem for Nowcasting Winter Weather (SNOW)Fire Weather Monitor and Nowcasting (FIREMAN)


But what happened with SCAN?

But what happened with SCAN?

Although the NSSL WDSS proof-of-concept tests were very favorable, SCAN has become a thorn in the side of the NWS warning program.

SCAN User Feedback indicated that the users preferred not to use the algorithms, but rather base data analysis.

Although the NSSL WDSS proof-of-concept tests were very favorable, SCAN has become a thorn in the side of the NWS warning program.

SCAN User Feedback indicated that the users preferred not to use the algorithms, but rather base data analysis.


Back to NSSLBack to NSSL

NSSL addressing many of the limitations of the current algorithm and display design.

NSSL addressing many of the limitations of the current algorithm and display design.


Warning Decision Support System – Integrated Information

(WDSS-II)

Warning Decision Support System – Integrated Information

(WDSS-II)

Support multiple-radar and multi-sensor data integration

Including multi-office/national CONUS applications.

Develop innovative 4D display tool

Support for algorithm/application developers in the form of an Application Programming Interface (API)

Easy to add new products and conceptsSeamless path from data ingest, processing, and output using standard formatsTo improve the pace of science and technology infusion

Support multiple-radar and multi-sensor data integration

Including multi-office/national CONUS applications.

Develop innovative 4D display tool

Support for algorithm/application developers in the form of an Application Programming Interface (API)

Easy to add new products and conceptsSeamless path from data ingest, processing, and output using standard formatsTo improve the pace of science and technology infusion


New Severe Weather Algorithm Requirements

New Severe Weather Algorithm Requirements

Objectives for new warning application development:

Integrate multiple-radar and multiple-sensor information No longer single-radar specific Must input highest resolution data in native format More accuracy in detection and diagnosis (oversampling -

more “eyes” looking at storms).

Must have rapid-update capability Uses virtual volume scan concept Better lead time (no more waiting until end of volume

scan for guidance).

Must be scientifically sound

Objectives for new warning application development:

Integrate multiple-radar and multiple-sensor information No longer single-radar specific Must input highest resolution data in native format More accuracy in detection and diagnosis (oversampling -

more “eyes” looking at storms).

Must have rapid-update capability Uses virtual volume scan concept Better lead time (no more waiting until end of volume

scan for guidance).

Must be scientifically sound


Multiple-Radar 3D Reflectivity MosaicMultiple-Radar 3D Reflectivity Mosaic

Filling the cones-of-silence

Single Radar


Single Radar


Multiple-Radar 3D Reflectivity MosaicMultiple-Radar 3D Reflectivity Mosaic


Multiple radars


Multiple radars


Multiple Sensor Applications

Multiple Sensor Applications

Reflectivity @ -20CReflectivity @ -20C


NSSL Google Earth Products

NSSL Google Earth Products

http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/geotiff/

Multi-radar reflectivity products (1 km, 5-minute updates)

Multi-radar Doppler velocity products (0.5 km, 2-minute update)

Severe storm analysis products derived from 3D reflectivity fields and environmental data

Products on the web site are either Continental U.S. (CONUS) or broken up by region.

http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/geotiff/

Multi-radar reflectivity products (1 km, 5-minute updates)

Multi-radar Doppler velocity products (0.5 km, 2-minute update)

Severe storm analysis products derived from 3D reflectivity fields and environmental data

Products on the web site are either Continental U.S. (CONUS) or broken up by region.


Hail SwathsHail Swaths

March 12-13 2006 Outbreak

KansasMissouriIllinoisIndiana

Multiple-RadarHail Swaths from Google Earth

Note “Six-State Supercell”!

March 12-13 2006 Outbreak

KansasMissouriIllinoisIndiana

Multiple-RadarHail Swaths from Google Earth

Note “Six-State Supercell”!

“Is there a business I can call to verify my warning?”

“Where was the greatest likelihood of the largest hail?”


“Rotation Tracks”“Rotation Tracks”

“Where should we send damage survey teams?”

“Where do the first responders need to focus on?”

“Did it affect Aunt Joan’s house?”


Four-DimensionalStormcell Investigator (FSI)

Four-DimensionalStormcell Investigator (FSI)

Can update X-Section line by dragging reference points2D and 3D pictures are linkedOther representations update on-the-fly

Can update X-Section line by dragging reference points2D and 3D pictures are linkedOther representations update on-the-fly

The Lemon TechniqueThe Lemon Technique


New Forecast Techniques and Observational Tools

New Forecast Techniques and Observational Tools

Radar:Dual-Polarization RadarPhased-Array RadarGap-Filling Radar (mobile and stationary)

Satellite Technology Improvements3D Lightning DetectionMulti-Sensor Precipitation EstimationWarn on Forecast

Instead of Warn On DetectionUses storm-scale numerical models

Radar:Dual-Polarization RadarPhased-Array RadarGap-Filling Radar (mobile and stationary)

Satellite Technology Improvements3D Lightning DetectionMulti-Sensor Precipitation EstimationWarn on Forecast

Instead of Warn On DetectionUses storm-scale numerical models


So, what are we doing with all of this?


And how does this relate to WAS*IS?And how does this relate to WAS*IS?




NSSL R&D has outpaced NWS technology.Working to help define new NWS hardware and software to support new applications, products, and concepts of operations.

But new hardware and software costs MONEY, and must be justified in the context of improvements in service and benefit to society.

The NWS is “poor”.

There are challenges dealing with NWS Headquarters culture.

NSSL R&D has outpaced NWS technology.Working to help define new NWS hardware and software to support new applications, products, and concepts of operations.

But new hardware and software costs MONEY, and must be justified in the context of improvements in service and benefit to society.

The NWS is “poor”.

There are challenges dealing with NWS Headquarters culture.




Working to posture ourselves for potential new NWS Concepts of Operations (ConOps).

User feedback workshops:NWS meteorologistsUsers of NWS products (disaster planning exercise)

Testing new applications, products, and services in an national experimental “proving ground”.

Working to posture ourselves for potential new NWS Concepts of Operations (ConOps).

User feedback workshops:NWS meteorologistsUsers of NWS products (disaster planning exercise)

Testing new applications, products, and services in an national experimental “proving ground”.


Future NWSConcept of Operations

Future NWSConcept of Operations

Enable and Communicateforecaster expertise

Enable and Communicateforecaster expertise


Enabling Forecaster Expertise


Improve Situational AwarenessNon traditional information

TV, Webcams, Electrical Grid status, road conditions

Gatekeeper or coordinator Situational Awareness Displays

Improve Situational AwarenessNon traditional information

TV, Webcams, Electrical Grid status, road conditions

Gatekeeper or coordinator Situational Awareness Displays




Improve Data IntegrationMulti-sensor algorithms

Better data visualization

Geographic Information System (GIS)

Improve Data IntegrationMulti-sensor algorithms

Better data visualization

Geographic Information System (GIS)


Communicating Forecaster Expertise

Communicating Forecaster Expertise

Exploit Digital MediaThe Internet, cell phone, PDAs, vehicle “On-Star”, etc.

Improve collaboration toolsWith other NWS and private sector meteorologistsWith “community gatekeepers”

Geo-reference Information and ExpertiseEnable users’ decision making

Improvements to severe weather warning productsImproved threat ID and trackingSmaller time and space scalesExpressing forecaster uncertainty (probabilities)

Exploit Digital MediaThe Internet, cell phone, PDAs, vehicle “On-Star”, etc.

Improve collaboration toolsWith other NWS and private sector meteorologistsWith “community gatekeepers”

Geo-reference Information and ExpertiseEnable users’ decision making

Improvements to severe weather warning productsImproved threat ID and trackingSmaller time and space scalesExpressing forecaster uncertainty (probabilities)


Probabilistic Threat Information





>50%>50% >25%>25%>10%>10%

>0%>0%

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

These data are digital!

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

These data are digital!


“Warn On Forecast”“Warn On Forecast”

Advances and research and technology are fostering probabilistic forecasts across the spectrum of time and space scales.

Now: Warnings based on detection

Future: Warnings based on forecast

Advances and research and technology are fostering probabilistic forecasts across the spectrum of time and space scales.

Now: Warnings based on detection

Future: Warnings based on forecast


Will the public understand probabilistic warnings?

Will the public understand probabilistic warnings?

How do we define “the public” (or publics)?What about the “community gatekeepers”?

Any high-resolution grid can be aggregated to simpler and simpler formats…

…but not the other way around!

A perfect opportunity for societal impact studies!As well as user workload studies.

How do we define “the public” (or publics)?What about the “community gatekeepers”?

Any high-resolution grid can be aggregated to simpler and simpler formats…

…but not the other way around!

A perfect opportunity for societal impact studies!As well as user workload studies.


1st Severe Tech Workshop

1st Severe Tech Workshop

12–14 July 2005, NWS Headquarters, Silver Spring, MDSponsors: MDL/Decision Assistance Branch; Warning Decision Training BranchGoogle “MDL severe workshop”

AttendeesPrimary User Audience: WFO meteorologistsScientists and developers (NSSL, MDL, NCAR, NESDIS, NASA, GSD)NWS and Region Headquarters management and requirements group representatives

ObjectivesTo review the “state of the science and technology” of NWS severe weather warning assistance tools.To identify gaps in the present methodologies and technologiesTo gain expert feedback from the field (including “stories” from the front lines)To discuss the near-term and long-term future trends in R&DFor field forecasters and R&D scientists to help pave the direction for new technological advances.

To improve severe weather warning services to users.

12–14 July 2005, NWS Headquarters, Silver Spring, MDSponsors: MDL/Decision Assistance Branch; Warning Decision Training BranchGoogle “MDL severe workshop”

AttendeesPrimary User Audience: WFO meteorologistsScientists and developers (NSSL, MDL, NCAR, NESDIS, NASA, GSD)NWS and Region Headquarters management and requirements group representatives

ObjectivesTo review the “state of the science and technology” of NWS severe weather warning assistance tools.To identify gaps in the present methodologies and technologiesTo gain expert feedback from the field (including “stories” from the front lines)To discuss the near-term and long-term future trends in R&DFor field forecasters and R&D scientists to help pave the direction for new technological advances.

To improve severe weather warning services to users.


Workshop Survey ResultsWorkshop Survey Results

Areas of Desired improvements:Areas of Desired improvements:Higher resolution observational data on temporal and spatial scale of severe convectionMore dedicated time, resources, and infrastructure for improved trainingImprovements in base data displays that allow more effective navigation in both space (2D and 3D) and time (4D)Faster and more dependable software and hardwareImproved algorithm guidance informationBetter decision support toolsImproved software interface designNew tools to monitor situation awareness

Higher resolution observational data on temporal and spatial scale of severe convectionMore dedicated time, resources, and infrastructure for improved trainingImprovements in base data displays that allow more effective navigation in both space (2D and 3D) and time (4D)Faster and more dependable software and hardwareImproved algorithm guidance informationBetter decision support toolsImproved software interface designNew tools to monitor situation awareness

New product formats that allow for better conveying uncertainty in warning decisionsMore effective warning communicationBetter measures of public service and verification improvementsImproved leadership skills and workload managementMore research into forecast problems and better guidanceBetter capabilities to merge geographic information into operationsFaster implementation of technological improvement

New product formats that allow for better conveying uncertainty in warning decisionsMore effective warning communicationBetter measures of public service and verification improvementsImproved leadership skills and workload managementMore research into forecast problems and better guidanceBetter capabilities to merge geographic information into operationsFaster implementation of technological improvement


2nd Severe Tech Workshop

2nd Severe Tech Workshop

Fall 2006 (tentative)

AttendeesIn addition to the type at workshop #1Users from various sectors (private, EM, etc)?

Fall 2006 (tentative)

AttendeesIn addition to the type at workshop #1Users from various sectors (private, EM, etc)?


National Weather Center (NWC) Hazardous Weather

Testbed (HWT)

Research Transition to Operations (RTO)

National Weather Center (NWC) Hazardous Weather

Testbed (HWT)

Research Transition to Operations (RTO)


Traditionally has been an NSSL-Storm Prediction Center (SPC) activity (the SPC “Spring Program”)

Spinning up a National warning-scale component this year, to be known as the “Experimental Warning Program” (EWP) at Norman, OK – National Weather Center (NWC)

NSSLNorman Weather Forecast Office (WFO)SPCMDLWarning Decision Training Branch (WDTB)

Visiting forecasters, scientists, etc.

Collaboration with other disciplines, emergency management, private industry, etc.

Traditionally has been an NSSL-Storm Prediction Center (SPC) activity (the SPC “Spring Program”)

Spinning up a National warning-scale component this year, to be known as the “Experimental Warning Program” (EWP) at Norman, OK – National Weather Center (NWC)

NSSLNorman Weather Forecast Office (WFO)SPCMDLWarning Decision Training Branch (WDTB)

Visiting forecasters, scientists, etc.

Collaboration with other disciplines, emergency management, private industry, etc.

Experimental Warning Program (EWP)

Experimental Warning Program (EWP)


Norman is uniqueNorman is unique

Sensor-rich. A few unique ones:Phased Array RadarPolarimetric radarGap-filling radars3D Lightning Mapping ArrayMesonetNational-scale applications run locally (models, WDSSII)

Large community of researchers, operational meteorologists, students, industry

Meteorology also intersects with other disciplinesLots of visiting meteorologists (WDTB, visiting scientists, etc.)

Sensor-rich. A few unique ones:Phased Array RadarPolarimetric radarGap-filling radars3D Lightning Mapping ArrayMesonetNational-scale applications run locally (models, WDSSII)

Large community of researchers, operational meteorologists, students, industry

Meteorology also intersects with other disciplinesLots of visiting meteorologists (WDTB, visiting scientists, etc.)


Some Initial ObjectivesSome Initial Objectives

Capability to emulate the warning operations for any location in the Continental U.S. (CONUS).

Evaluation of new warning guidance applications and displays that integrate data from multiple sensors (both operational and experimental) and numerical models (including “warn-on-forecast”)

Development and evaluation of new warning dissemination techniques (e.g., probabilistic warning grids)

Development of methods to significantly improve warning verification tasks and improve the climate record of hazardous weather events

Create advanced Geographic Information System information for utilization in emergency management response to disasters (WxGIS)

Testing the operational utility of new meteorological sensors.

Capability to emulate the warning operations for any location in the Continental U.S. (CONUS).

Evaluation of new warning guidance applications and displays that integrate data from multiple sensors (both operational and experimental) and numerical models (including “warn-on-forecast”)

Development and evaluation of new warning dissemination techniques (e.g., probabilistic warning grids)

Development of methods to significantly improve warning verification tasks and improve the climate record of hazardous weather events

Create advanced Geographic Information System information for utilization in emergency management response to disasters (WxGIS)

Testing the operational utility of new meteorological sensors.


Primary Goalsand ChallengesPrimary Goals

and Challenges

Collaboration between researchers and operational forecasters

0-2 hour forecasts/warningsPost-event responseForecasters benefit from the latest research toolsResearchers gain valuable insight into operational forecasters’ needs

The EWP is mostly unfunded!

Looking for collaborations for socio/econ wx projects that benefit NWS and society.

Collaboration between researchers and operational forecasters

0-2 hour forecasts/warningsPost-event responseForecasters benefit from the latest research toolsResearchers gain valuable insight into operational forecasters’ needs

The EWP is mostly unfunded!

Looking for collaborations for socio/econ wx projects that benefit NWS and society.


Questions?Questions?

Email: [email protected]

NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory

Decision Assistance Branch

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/dab/decisionassistbr.htm

Email: [email protected]

NWS Meteorological Development Laboratory

Decision Assistance Branch

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/dab/decisionassistbr.htm

Severe Weather Warning Decision Making Research & Development Improvements

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