SERBIA AND NEW HORIZONS - PUBLIC ON SECURITY

CHALLENGES, NATO, US, KOSOVO AND REGIONAL

COOPERATION

CeSID and Center for Euro-Atlantic Studies (CEAS), Belgrade

November 12, 2019

METHODOLOGY

Survey carried out by CeSID and Center for Euro-Atlantic Studies (CEAS)

Fieldwork 26 October to 09 November 2019

Sample type and sizeRandom, representative sample of 1,000 adult

citizens of Serbia

Sample frame Citizens of Serbia with landline telephones

Selection of households Random sampling without replacement

Selection of respondents by household First birthday in relation to survey date

Survey methodComputer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing

(CATI)

Survey instrument 27-item questionnaire plus demography1

FUTURE CHALLENGES, REGIONAL COOPERATION AND THE EU

HOW CAN SERBIA BEST PROTECT ITSELF FROM FUTURE SECURITY CHALLENGES?

2

37

31

17

9

6

It should enhance security and defence co-operation with China and Russia

It should remain both militarily and politicallyneutral

It should collaborate as closely as possiblewith the EU, US, and NATO and institutionalise

this co-operation

It should remain militarily neutral

Does not know/Cannot tell

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING GROUPS OF NEIGHBOURING COUNTRIES SHOULD

SERBIA HAVE THE CLOSEST TIES WITH?

3

80

7

66 1

All neighbouring countries equally

Visegrád Group (Hungary, Czechia, Slovakia,Poland)

Western Balkans (Bosnia-Herzegovina,Montenegro, North Macedonia, etc.)

Romania, Bulgaria, Greece

Does not know/Cannot tell

IF A REFERENDUM ON SERBIA’S ACCESSION TO THE EU WAS BEING HELD THIS

WEEK, WOULD YOU...?

4

47

36

17

49

40

11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Vote for Serbia joining theEU

Vote against Serbia joiningthe EU

Abstain from voting

2018 2019

ATTITUDES TOWARDS NATO

IF A REFERENDUM ON SERBIA JOINING NATO WAS BEING HELD THIS WEEK,WOULD YOU...?

5

11

68

21

8

78

14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Vote for Serbia joiningNATO

Vote against Serbia joiningNATO

Abstain from voting

2018 2019

ONLY FOR THOSE WHO SAID THEY WOULD VOTE FOR SERBIA JOINING NATO, WHY

WOULD YOU VOTE FOR SERBIA BECOMING A NATO MEMBER?

6

25 24

20 19

9

3

That is better forus

Does notknow/Cannot tell

For safety Do not bomb asagain

Bettercooperation with

all Westerncountries

Like all countries,so do we

ONLY FOR THOSE WHO SAID THEY WOULD VOTE AGAINST SERBIA JOINING NATO,WHY WOULD YOU VOTE AGAINST SERBIA BECOMING A NATO MEMBER?

7

57

17

7 5 4 3 25

NATObombed us

Does notknow/Cannot

tell

Becauseneutrality

I do not likethem

Because ofthe agression

There is nouse for us

For engagingour forces

abroad

Other

DO YOU KNOW THE PERCENTAGE OF EU COUNTRIES WHO ARE ALSO NATOMEMBERS?

8

42

17

93

29

44

25

85

18

05

101520253035404550

Nearly all EUmember statesare also NATO

members

Fewer than one-half of EU

member statesare also NATO

members

Fewer than one-third of EU

member statesare also NATO

members

All EU memberstates are also

NATO members

Does notknow/Cannot

tell

2018 2019

GIVEN THE EU’S DECISION TO SLOW DOWN THE ACCESSION PROCESS, SHOULD

NATO ASSUME THE ROLE OF POLITICAL LEADER IN THE REGION SO THAT THE REMAINING

OUTSTANDING ISSUES IN THE WESTERN BALKANS CAN BE RESOLVED PEACEFULLY THROUGH COMPROMISE AND TO ENSURE A COMMON RESPONSE

TO CHALLENGES SUCH AS MIGRATIONS AND THE REFUGEE CRISIS?

9

76

15

9No

Yes

Does not know/Cannottell

SHOULD WESTERN LEADERS CONTINUE TO EXPRESS REGRET OVER THE CIVILIAN

CASUALTIES OF NATO’S BOMBING OF YUGOSLAVIA OR DO SO MORE

FREQUENTLY, INCLUDING BY LAYING WREATHS AT MEMORIALS?

10

38

30

29

3

They should, provided the actions aremotivated by sincere remorse and contrition

They should, as this is an important steptowards reconciliation and better co-

operation in the future

They should not, as this only causes sufferingto the parents and the Serbian public

Does not know/Cannot tell

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

HOW DO YOU MOST COMMONLY FIND INFORMATION ABOUT NATO AND

SERBIA’S CO-OPERATION WITH THIS ALLIANCE?

11

55

21

15

4 41

Television Online portals I do not seek outthis information

Social networks Print Radio

... AND WHAT DO YOU CONSIDER THE MOST RELIABLE SOURCES OF

INFORMATION ABOUT NATO AND SERBIA’S CO-OPERATION WITH THIS

ALLIANCE?

12

42

17

129

47 6

3

Serbianpoliticians

Friends andacquaintances

Russian andChinese

politicians

NGOs,environmentalassociations...

Westernpoliticians

Nobody Other Does notknow/Cannot

tell

... WHAT IS YOUR ATTITUDE TOWARDS SERBIA’S CO-OPERATION WITH NATOIN EMERGENCY RESPONSE AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT EFFORTS?

13

36

27

23

14

38

23

32

7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Neutral Positive Negative Does notknow/Cannot tell

2018 2019

WOULD WESTERN ASSISTANCE TO SERBIA IN OVERCOMING MAJOR

ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES HELP IMPROVE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SERBIA

AND NATO AND ENHANCE PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN THE TWO?

14

45

37

144

No, because I am against any co-operationwith NATO

Yes, if this co-operation involved specificprojects only but stopped short ofmembership in the alliance

Yes, if this co-operation entailed a firm long-term relationship with NATO

Does not know, No answer

ATTITUDES TOWARDS KOSOVO

... IF SERBIA WERE OFFERED A COMPROMISE OVER THE FUTURE STATUS OF

KOSOVO AND METOHIJA THAT ENTAILED MUTUAL RECOGNITION, WOULD YOU

SUPPORT THIS COMPROMISE IF IT ALSO ENVISAGED…?

15

32

28

30

32

31

30

7

10

0 10 20 30 40

... special status for the Serbian OrthodoxChurch and its churches and monasteries in

Kosovo and Metohija?

…access to resources located in the four municipalities of Northern Kosovo?

Does not know, Cannot tell Would certainly supportWould probably support Would not support

WOULD YOU AGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS?

16

Kosovo should remain in Serbia at any cost

A compromise solution should involve a delimitation with four northern

municipalities remaining in Serbia albeit with a continued KFOR presence, and extensive

autonomy for Serbian municipalities in Kosovo

Kosovo is independent and Serbia should

accept this situation and turn to the future

Disagree 18 (22 in 2018) 24 58 (63 in 2018)

Neither agree nor disagree 14 (24 in 2018) 25 13 (12 in 2018)

Agree 66 (53 in 2018) 44 10 (24 in 2018)

DNK /Cannot estimate 1 (1 in 2018) 6 13 (1 in 2018)

IF A REFERENDUM WAS TO BE HELD THIS WEEK ABOUT NATIONAL DELIMITATION

BETWEEN SERBIA AND KOSOVO, WHICH WOULD INCLUDE CORRECTING THE

ADMINISTRATIVE LINE, SUGGESTED BY THE PRESIDENT AND THE GOVERNMENT,AND SUPPORTED BY NATO AND THE EU YOU WOULD...

17

3634

22

8

39 38

18

5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Vote for thedelimitation

Vote against thedelimitation

Abstain from voting Does not know,Cannot tell

2018

2019

ATTITUDES TOWARDS US

HAVE YOU NOTICED ANY CHANGES IN US POLICY TOWARDS SERBIA RECENTLY,AND, IF SO, IN WHAT DIRECTION?

18

11

37 38

1415

50

24

11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Yes, US policy towardsSerbia has become less

favourable

No, US policy towardsSerbia has remained the

same

Yes, US policy towardsSerbia has become more

favourable

Does not know, Cannottell

2018

2019

HOW WOULD YOU RATE LAST YEAR’S CAMPAIGN BY THE US EMBASSY (‘YOU

ARE THE WORLD’) THAT PROMOTED THE HISTORIC RELATIONSHIP AND TIES

BETWEEN THE SERBIAN AND THE AMERICAN PEOPLE?

19

34

30

27

9

The campaign was good and has had results,but dissemination of facts should continue

Does not know, Not aware of the campaign

The campaign was poor and will notcontribute at all to improving relationsbetween the US and Serbia

The campaign was excellent and I believe itcan contribute to improving relationsbetween the US and Serbia

WHAT IS THE MOST CONTENTIOUS ISSUE PREVENTING SERBIA FROM RE-ESTABLISHING A CLOSE PARTNERSHIP WITH THE US?

20

3432

24

3 25

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Serbia’s close links

with Russia and China

Currentstatus ofKosovo

1999bombing of

Serbia

Serbia’s not being a

member of NATO

Unsolvedmurders ofthe Bytyqibrothers

Does notknow, No

answer

HOW WOULD YOU RATE THE INFLUENCE OF THE US ON SERBIA IN THE

FOLLOWING AREAS?

21

32

48

30 2934

4341

2932 34

38

29

2218

32 31

2118

5 5 6 6 710

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019

Development of democracy and respectfor human rights in Serbia

Economic growth and investment inSerbia

External and internal security of Serbia

Negative Neutral Positive Does not know, No answer

ATTITUDES TOWARDS RUSSIA

WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS PERTAINING TO RUSSIA’S ATTITUDE AND POLICY

TOWARDS KOSOVO AND METOHIJA DO YOU AGREE WITH THE MOST?

22

61

35

3

Russia is a true friend to Serbia that applies no pressure, respects Serbia’s interests, and will accept any compromise agreed by Belgrade and Priština with the West and verified by the UN

Russia has its own interests and, to achievethese, will thwart any compromise betweenBelgrade and Priština brokered by the West

Does not know, No answer

ATTITUDES TOWARDS DEPLETED URANIUM

DO YOU BELIEVE THAT THE USE OF DEPLETED URANIUM MUNITIONS DURING THE

BOMBING OF SERBIA HAS CAUSED AN EPIDEMIC OF MALIGNANCIES?

23

78

16

3

2

1

I believe that depleted uranium is the dominant causeof this

I believe that depleted uranium has played some partin this

Depleted uranium and malignancies are not linked

I do not believe that there is an epidemic ofmalignancies in Serbia caused by the use of depleted

uranium

Does not know, No answer

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

CESID@CESID.RS

OFFICE@CEAS-SERBIA.ORG