SearchLove London | Kelvin Newman, 'What the Flash Crash and Black Boxes can teach us about The...
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WHAT THE FLASH CRASH & BLACK BOXES CAN TEACH US ABOUT THE FUTURE OF SEARCH. @KELVINNEWMAN
description
May 6th, 2010 the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged about 1000 points only to recover those losses within minutes – this was the Flash Crash. No catastrophes or physical events caused this swing, it was the black boxes of stock market algorithms. Black boxes a lot like Google’s. How do we prepare for the future when even Google doesn’t know how its algorithm works?D
Transcript of SearchLove London | Kelvin Newman, 'What the Flash Crash and Black Boxes can teach us about The...
W H AT T H E F L A S H C R A S H & B L A C K B O X E S C A N T E A C H U S A B O U T T H E F U T U R E O F S E A R C H .
@KELV INNEWMAN
W H AT ’ S Y O U R J O B ?
@KELV INNEWMAN
Understanding CustomersUnderstanding who pays the billsUnderstanding Google
@KELV INNEWMAN
Ability
Time@KELV INNEWMAN
Pop!Tech
“Practice isn't the thing you do once you're good. It's the thing you do that makes you good.” ― Malcolm Gladwell, Outliers: The Story of Success
On some Malcolm Gladwell, David Bowie meets Kanye shit,
This is dedication, A life lived for art is never a life wasted,
Ten thousand hours felt like ten thousand hands, Ten thousands hands, they carry me.
― Macklemore - Ten Thousand Hours
floshe24 @KELV INNEWMAN
Understanding CustomersUnderstanding who pays the billsUnderstanding Google
A+
A+
D-
@KELV INNEWMAN
Ability
Time@KELV INNEWMAN
@KELV INNEWMAN
I thought maybe it’s the Dunning-Kruger effect.
Adam Sundana
@KELV INNEWMANAdam Sundana
The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias manifesting in unskilled individuals suffering from illusory superiority,
mistakenly rating their ability much higher than is accurate.
This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their ineptitude.
Conversely, people with true ability tend to underestimate their relative competence based on the erroneous or exaggerated
claims made by unskilled people.
but it was more than that
@KELV INNEWMANEva Rinaldi
T H I N G S I T H O U G H T W E R E T R U E ; N O L O N G E R W E R E
@KELV INNEWMAN
T H I N G S I S A I D W O R K E D N O L O N G E R W O R K E D
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A N D T H AT 3 5 , 0 0 0 W O R D E B O O K I W R O T E A B O U T L I N K B U I L D I N G
this presentation isn't about one weird trick to get better
rankings ...
@KELV INNEWMAN
it’s about me dealing with the realisation that I didn’t understand Google, quite as much, as I thought I did.
& I T W I L L C H A N G E T H E W AY Y O U T H I N K A B O U T H O W S E A R C H
E N G I N E S W O R K
@KELV INNEWMAN
Which is important…
Red Touch Media @KELV INNEWMAN
B E C A U S E , W E N E E D T O T H I N K M O R E ( A B O U T
H O W W E T H I N K . )
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T H E P R O P
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three stories
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three lessons
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three things to do…
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Story One
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the first story takes place at the University of Sussex
@KELV INNEWMAN
S O M E G R E AT P E O P L E H AV E S T U D I E D T H E R E .
@KELV INNEWMAN
I A N M C E W A NN O V E L I S T A N D A U T H O R O F O S C A R W I N N I N G A T O N E M E N T
@KELV INNEWMAN
V I R G I N I A W A D ET H R E E T I M E G R A N D - S L A M W I N N E R
M I C H A E L B U E R KL E G E N D A R Y B R O A D C A S T E R
K E LV I N N E W M A NB L O K E W H O U S E D T O D J A T T H E S T U D E N T U N I O N
@KELV INNEWMAN
B U T O U R S T O R Y I S N ’ T A B O U T T H E M
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A N D H O W T H E Y M E T T H E PA R T N E R S O F
T H E I R D R E A M S
@KELV INNEWMAN
H A D A W E S O M E
K I D S
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A N D I N E X P L I C A B LY P L AY E D
S W I N G - B A L L O N T H E S TA G E W H E R E
A B B A W O N E U R O V I S I O N
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I T ’ S A B O U T
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D R . A D R I A N T H O M P S O NE V O L U T I O N A R Y & A D A P T I V E S Y S T E M S G R O U P
@KELV INNEWMAN
U N I V E R S I T Y O F S U S S E X , 1 9 9 6D E PA R T M E N T O F I N F O R M A T I C S
H E A S K E D C O U L D A C I R C U I T “EVOLVE ”
T O S O LV E A P R O B L E M
@KELV INNEWMAN
S U R V I VA L O F T H E F I T T E S T A P P L I E D T O C I R C U I T S
T H E E X P E R I M E N T
S U R V I VA L O F T H E
F I T T E S T
@KELV INNEWMAN
S U R V I VA L O F T H E
F I T T E S T
@KELV INNEWMAN
S U R V I VA L O F T H E
F I T T E S T
@KELV INNEWMAN
T H E F I T T E S T W I N O U T AT T H E E X P E N S E O F T H E I R R I VA L S B E C A U S E T H E Y S U C C E E D I N A D A P T I N G T H E M S E LV E S T O T H E I R E N V I R O N M E N T
C H A R L E S D A R W I N
www.CGPGrey.com @KELV INNEWMAN
P R I M O R D I A L D ATA S O U P O F R A N D O M O N E S A N D Z E R O S
T H E F I R S T H U N D R E D G E N E R AT I O N S W E R E L I T T L E B E T T E R T H A N R A N D O M G U E S S E S
JD Hancock@KELV INNEWMAN
By generation #220 there were some encouraging signs.
Generation #1400 had a fifty percent success rate.
Just after #4000 it worked.
@KELV INNEWMAN
S O M E T H I N G S T R A N G E H A P P E N E DI T W O R K E D B U T
JD Hancock@KELV INNEWMAN
The circuit solved the problem using thirty-seven logic gates.
Five logic cells were connected in ways which wouldn't allow them to influence how the circuit worked.
But if you removed them the chip stopped working.
@KELV INNEWMAN
When machines teach themselves; they solve problems in ways we can't understand or reverse engineer.
Story Two
@KELV INNEWMAN
Mike McCarthy A former marketer for
mortgage company
Quinn Dombrowski @KELV INNEWMAN
Southern California.
2:45 PM, 6th of May 2010.
Jayseaka @KELV INNEWMAN
Mike tried to sell shares he inherited, that should have been worth about $45k but actually sold for closer to $28k
@KELV INNEWMAN
@KELV INNEWMAN
Moments before each share was selling for $60.
Minutes later they’d returned to that price
@KELV INNEWMAN
T H E L O W E S T P R I C E I N S E V E N Y E A R S .
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it quickly spread across the whole market
@KELV INNEWMAN
B I G G E S T O N E D AY D R O P I N T H E D O W J O N E S
I N D U S T R I A L AV E R A G E ’ S 1 1 8 Y E A R H I S T O R Y
@KELV INNEWMAN
The index fell by thousand points or 9%
Twenty minutes later it had bounced back six hundred points.
@KELV INNEWMAN
T H I R T Y O F T H E U S ’ S B I G G E S T C O M PA N I E S H A D I N S TA N T LY L O S T
9 % O F T H E I R VA L U E
@KELV INNEWMAN
JD Hancock @KELV INNEWMAN
W H Y D I D I T H A P P E N ?
@KELV INNEWMAN
FAT F I N G E R ST H E T H E O R I E S
JD Hancock @KELV INNEWMAN
JD Hancock
T H E G L I T C HT H E T H E O R I E S
@KELV INNEWMAN
T H E I M PA C T O F H I G H F R E Q U E N C Y T R A D E R S
T H E T H E O R I E S
JD Hancock @KELV INNEWMAN
JD Hancock
I T M AY H AV E B E E N A L L O F T H E S E R E A S O N S , O R N O N E O F T H E M .
T H E S Y S T E M I S T O O C O M P L E X T O U N D E R S TA N D
B U T T H E A L G O B E H AV E D A S T H E Y S H O U L D
T H E R E A L I T Y
@KELV INNEWMAN
Algorithms can react in peculiar ways when they come into contact with other
algorithms, and the real world
Story Three
@KELV INNEWMAN
D R . I A N M A L C O L MM A T H E M A T I C I A N A T T H E U N I V E R S I T Y O F T E X A S A T A U S T I N
Jamie Henderson@KELV INNEWMAN
Isla Nublar, Costa Rica
@KELV INNEWMAN
@KELV INNEWMAN
N O T R E A L LY D R . I A N M A L C O L M
Jamie Henderson
http://brandonbird.com/
D R . I A N M A L C O L MA C T U A L LY F I C T I O N A L C H A R A C T E R I N J U R A S S I C PA R K
@KELV INNEWMAN
J U R A S S I C PA R K D O E S A N E X C E L L E N T J O B O F E X P L A I N I N G
C H A O S T H E O R Y.
@KELV INNEWMAN
“ W H E N T H E P R E S E N T D E T E R M I N E S T H E F U T U R E , B U T T H E A P P R O X I M AT E P R E S E N T D O E S N O T A P P R O X I M AT E LY D E T E R M I N E T H E F U T U R E . ”
@KELV INNEWMAN
Edward Norton Lorenz
P H Y S I C S I S G O O D AT D E S C R I B I N G C E R TA I N K I N D S O F B E H AV I O U R
L I N E A R E Q U A T I O N S
Niki Odolphie @KELV INNEWMAN
55Laney69 @KELV INNEWMAN
E V E N I F Y O U K N E W E V E R Y T H I N G A B O U T H O W T H E W E AT H E R W O R K E D Y O U S T I L L C O U L D N ’ T P R E D I C T I T
N O N - L I N E A R E Q U A T I O N S
The weather is s complex & chaotic
system@KELV INNEWMAN
@KELV INNEWMAN
C O M P L E X≠C O M P L I C AT E D
@KELV INNEWMAN
D I F F E R E N C E B E T W E E N S I M P L E , C O M P L I C AT E D A N D C O M P L E X S Y S T E M S
Simple Systems Complicated Systems Complex Systems
Like Following A Recipe For A Meal
Like Sending A Rocket To The Moon
Like Being A Parent To A Child
The Relationship Between Cause And Effect Is
Obvious
The Relationship Between Cause And Effect Requires
Expert Knowledge
The Relationship Between Cause And Effect Is Hard
To Determine
@KELV INNEWMAN
Even with billions at stake, the world’s greatest scientists cannot predict the outcomes of a complex and chaotic
system with precision
S O W H AT ’ S T H I S G O T T O D O W I T H S E A R C H ?
@KELV INNEWMAN
H E D O E S N ’ T K N O W H O W G O O G L E W O R K S
Steve Jurvetson @KELV INNEWMAN
H E C A N ’ T K N O W H O W G O O G L E W O R K S
storyspinn @KELV INNEWMAN
A N D H E H A S N ’ T G O T A B L O O D Y
C L U E .
@KELV INNEWMAN
G O O G L E ’ S A L G O I S P E R F E C T E X A M P L E O F A C O M P L E X & C H A O T I C S Y S T E M
Les Chatfield
A R E A M A C H I N E L E A R N I N G C O M PA N Y
@KELV INNEWMAN
http://research.google.com/pubs/ArtificialIntelligenceandMachineLearning.html
i
$400 Million on AI Company
@KELV INNEWMAN
When machines teach themselves; they solve problems in ways we can't understand or reverse engineer.
JD Hancock @KELV INNEWMAN
Algorithms can react in peculiar ways when they come into contact with other
algorithms, and the real world
JD Hancock @KELV INNEWMAN
When Google release an update or change to their algorithm they can never fully anticipate how it will work in real world
nor how the real world will react to that change.
@KELV INNEWMAN
Even with billions at stake, the world’s greatest scientists cannot predict the
outcomes of a complex and chaotic system with precision
Noah@KELV INNEWMAN
In a complex and chaotic systems the relationship between cause and effect is very hard to determine
@KELV INNEWMAN
I used to think the search algorithms work like clocks
Arjan Richter @KELV INNEWMAN
they’re more like clouds
jojo nicdao @KELV INNEWMAN
Or actually closer to how the climate works.
Evil Twin21401 @KELV INNEWMAN
I’m not saying small scale search experiment are a waste of time.
@KELV INNEWMAN
Well actually I am.
@KELV INNEWMAN
“You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows”
Alberto Cabello @KELV INNEWMAN
“You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows”
goblinbox @KELV INNEWMAN
there’s a difference between interesting and useful
three things to do…
@KELV INNEWMAN
or actually three books to read
@KELV INNEWMAN
@KELV INNEWMAN
@KELV INNEWMAN
@KELV INNEWMAN
A N D F I N A L LY,
T H I N K A B O U T H O W Y O U T H I N K A B O U T G O O G L E
@KELV INNEWMAN
B E C A U S E , W E N E E D T O T H I N K M O R E ( A B O U T
H O W W E T H I N K . )
@KELV INNEWMAN
B U T W H A T A B O U T T H E B O X
@KELV INNEWMAN
E S S E N T I A L LY I T ’ S A M A C G U F F I N
@KELV INNEWMAN
W H A T I S A M A C G U F F I N ?
@KELV INNEWMAN
@KELV INNEWMAN
@KELV INNEWMAN
@KELV INNEWMAN
T H E O B J E C T T H AT D R I V E S T H E S T O R Y F O R W A R D A N D I S O F V I TA L I M P O R TA N T T O B O T H T H E H E R O E S A N D V I L L A I N S E V E N I F T H E S P E C I F I C S O F T H E O B J E C T I T S E L F R E M A I N O B S C U R E O R A R E U N I M P O R TA N T.
@KELV INNEWMAN
Our box contains all of the Google Algorithm on a USB key, would you open it?
@KELV INNEWMAN
