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Transcript of Save Our Snow
SAVE OUR SNOW:THE DISAPPEARINGCRYOSPHERE
Mark Williams, University of Colorado
Disappearing Cryosphere
• 2000’s warmest decade in record• Glacier retreat?• Permafrost melt?• Less runoff?• Skiing a dying sport?• Mtn climate?
– Avalanches?– Rock fall?
• Hoax or real?
Talk Overview
• Mountains as water towers• Hydrology overview• Natural gas extraction and water• MPB and climate• Climate tutorial on skiing• Himalaya’s: climate change gone bad
GlobalWarmingHoax.comWhere only the truth heats up
Can we agree that snow and ice melt from mountains are an
economically important source of water?
David Michel, The Stimson Center
Why we care
The Chinese character for “political order” combines the symbols for “river” and “dike”.
The English word “rival” (and similar terms in other languages) derives from the Latin rivalis meaning “ one using the same stream as another”.
David Michel, The Stimson Center
Which direction does water flow?
Towards money
What’s water good for?
Whiskey’s for drinkingWater’s for fighting
Mountains are water towers
Our snow and ice resource is sensitive to changes in climate
(regardless of what causes climate to change)
demonstration
Is natural gas really part of a clean energy strategy? Tales from
the environment.Mark Williams, Joe Ryan, Adrianne
KroepschUniversity of Colorado Boulder
Image from “http://www.theresilientearth.com/?q=content/america-gets-fracked”
Fracing overview
Enviromental footprint consists of:
• Rock formation • Water and fluid for fracing• Transport of the water to site• Well-casing• Fugitive methane• Disposal of “produced water”• Compressor stations, transmission of recovered gas• Air quality
Hydrogeologic, Isotopic, and Geochemical Analysis of Hydrogeologic, Isotopic, and Geochemical Analysis of Groundwater-Surface Water Interactions Along the Groundwater-Surface Water Interactions Along the
Fruitland Outcrop: Fruitland Outcrop: The Backdrop for The Backdrop for
Coalbed Methane DevelopmentCoalbed Methane Development
M. Williams, PhD K.Nydick, PhDG.Gianniny, PhDCU-Boulder Mtn. Studies Inst. Ft. Lewis College
R.Michel, PhD Chris Peltz, MSJordan VanSickleUSGS Mtn. Studies Inst. Ft. Lewis College
Adrianne Kroepsch University of Colorado –
Boulder
Conceptual ModelConceptual Model
Study DesignStudy Design• 67 SITES: Surface , Domestic 67 SITES: Surface , Domestic
Wells, Piezometers, Springs, Wells, Piezometers, Springs, Irrigation Ditches, PrecipIrrigation Ditches, Precip
• 3 AREAS: Florida Drainage, 3 AREAS: Florida Drainage, Basin Interior, Piedra DrainageBasin Interior, Piedra Drainage
• Above, In, Below Outcrop of Above, In, Below Outcrop of Fruitland FormationFruitland Formation
• Synoptic sampling in 2008/2009 Synoptic sampling in 2008/2009 for baseflow/melt conditionsfor baseflow/melt conditions
• Test isotopic, solute compositionTest isotopic, solute composition
Tritium (Tritium (33H)H)
• Almost all water is modern. Almost all water is modern.
• Age range of less than 15 Age range of less than 15 yrs for all but two domestic yrs for all but two domestic wells. wells.
• Signal of hydrologic Signal of hydrologic connection between these connection between these water bodies. water bodies.
Tritium and SodiumTritium and Sodium
Piezometers in the Fruitland Formation near outcrop
Fruitland Outcrop• SAR, tritium, and O18 in piezometers in outcrop same
as local springs and wells• There is a hydrologic connection between the
Fruitland Formation outcrops and local springs and wells
• Strength of that connection is site specific• Vance well shows a large reduction in water level
– Judge Hobbs water law ruling based on their law suit• Florida River likely a losing stretch near outcrop• Piedra River likely a gaining stretch near outcrop
Environmental Investigation of an Environmental Investigation of an Alleged Hydraulic Fracturing ImpactAlleged Hydraulic Fracturing Impact
Adrianne KroepschMA Candidate, Geography
INSTAAR Grad Talk 10.6.11
*NOT TO SCALE. Adapted from Dahl testimony. (Dahl, 2011; COGCC, 2011)
“When I checked the cistern that afternoon about6 p.m., it was about half full of grey/brown, veryturbid water. Since our water well had never produced anything but clean, clear water prior to this day, I can tell you that it was very shocking to see.” - Tracy Dahl
CisternTap
(Dahl, 2011)
• No sign of frac fluid or produced water
• Chemicals (TCMs, chloride, phthalate) from chlorination
• Well not adequately purged after chlorination
• Iron-reducing bacteria causing discoloration
• Toluene “naturally occurring”
• No significant pressure changes during frac
• Cement job on Alibi 23-2 up to regulation
Questions this case raises
• Do we have to see a “fingerprint” of fracing fluid in a homeowners well to conclude there has been a problem?
• Can fracing compromise the structural integrity of overlying or interbedded aquifers?
• Should measurements of static water levels in wells be required prior to and post natural gas development?
Fracing and earthquakes
• Deep injection of produced waters associated with earthquakes in numerous states and countries– Consistent with Rocky Flats Arsenal earthquakes from
the 1970’s– Injected water increases stress along pre-existing faults,
and also increases lubrication of those faults• Fracing itself appears to be able to cause
earthquakes under very specific conditions• EPA white paper in preparation
Does fracing affect beer?
• Cooperstone brewery fights NY fracing• Brewery Ommegang says Belgium ale and natural
gas don’t mix• Their beer is more than 90% water from
groundwater aquifers• They are concerned that natural gas extraction in
the state of New York may contaminate their aquifer
What is the number one priority for homeowners?
Baseline data. COGA and COGCC making a nice first
step in this direction. However, what
analytes/parameters should be required? Detection limits?
Can fracing be conducted without environmental harm?
Absolutely
Is fracing always done correctly?
No
Questions?
Colorado Water and Energy Research Centerhttp://outreach.colorado.edu/programs/
details/id/392
SAVE OUR SNOW
Brian LazarStratus Consulting
Mark WilliamsCU-BoulderNWT LTER
Lazar and Williams,2008
Mountain Snowpack
Mark WilliamsSnow Hydrology
Snow properties of interest
Working wall
RoundsTwo primary types of snow grains within the snowpack
Facets
Snow is dynamic, always changing!
Firnspiegel
Demonstration
U.S. Air Temperatures Have Increased over the 20th
Century• Warming in the US
is concentrated in the mountain areas of the west.
• The western US has warmed about 2°F in the last five years compared to the last 100 years.
Source: Dr. Martin Hoerling, NOAA, Boulder, CO.
Location
Climate Analysis Approach
- General circulation models (GCMs)
- Regional climate models
(RCMs)
- MAGICC/SCENGEN
- Statistical downscaling
- Dynamic downscaling
Emission scenarios
- IPCC
Climate response modeling
Scale to Park City
Estimate effects on snow
- SRM
- Snow depth
Climate Change
• “Climate change” refers broadly to any changes in climate (air temp, precip)
• Here we focus on potential climate change caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG)– Carbon dioxide– Nitrous oxide– Methane
Rising CO2 Will Lead to Accelerated Rise in Air
Temperature
Climate Analysis Approach
- General circulation models (GCMs)
- Regional climate models
(RCMs)
- MAGICC/SCENGEN
- Statistical downscaling
- Dynamic downscaling
Emission scenarios
- IPCC
Climate response modeling
Scale to Park City
Estimate effects on snow
- SRM
- Snow depth
Model vs. Observed Current (2000) Temperatures
°C
Climate Analysis Approach
- General circulation models (GCMs)
- Regional climate models
(RCMs)
- MAGICC/SCENGEN
- Statistical downscaling
- Dynamic downscaling
Emission scenarios
- IPCC
Climate response modeling
Scale to Park City
Estimate effects on snow
- SRM
- Snow depth
5 x 5° Grid Boxes Near Park City• 300 miles on a side• RCM box 20 miles on a side
Different Climate Scenarios
• Three CO2 warming scenarios– Business as usual (AIB)– Green scenario (BI)– Worst-case scenario (AIF1)
• Three different years for each CO2 scenario – 2030: normal business projection– 2070: threshold for large effects?– 2100: long-term
Annual Climate Changes in 2030: Business as Usual CO2
Scenario
• All GCMs show warming of 3-4°F
• Little variability in temperature
Higher variability in precipitation
GCM average precipitation decreases by 7%
°C
Summary of Projected Climate Change in 2030
• Temperatures are projected to rise– GCMs project a 3° to 4°F rise
• Little variability among models• Little variability among CO2 scenarios• Adds confidence to interpretation
– Warming most pronounced during the summer• Precipitation changes are uncertain
– there is high variability across the GCMs
Potential Climate Changes in 2100:
Business as Usual CO2 Scenario• More warming:
All GCMs show warming of 9.5° to 11.2°F
• Continued variability in precipitation
• Park City will have climate of Salt Lake City
Potential Climate Changes in 2100:Business as Usual, Worst Case and
Best Case CO2 Scenarios
Annual averagesB1: 8.5°FA1B: 10.4°FA1FI: 15.2°F
Warming most pronounced in summer
• Bad CO2 scenario almost twice as “hot” as best case CO2 scenario
Climate Change Projections Summary
• Today; now: it’s getting hotter– Night temps 2-3F warmer than in 1970
• 2030: warms another 3-4F– Little difference among CO2 scenarios
• 2070: large increases in air temp– CO2 scenarios make a difference
• 2100: even larger increases in air temp– CO2 scenarios make even larger difference– Park City climate like Salt Lake City today
• Precip: highly variable, not much confidence
Climate Change Bottom Line
• It’s not gloom and doom• Continues to get gradually warmer• Really large change is 50 to 70 years in future• CO2 scenarios have a large effect then
– What the world does with CO2 emissions today matters to your grand-children in 50 years
• Caveat: These are deviations from average conditions– Science at this time is unable to deal with changes in the
frequency of unusual years: droughts, large snow years, etc
Study Approach
– GCMs
– RCMs
– MAGICC/SCENGEN
– Statistical downscaling
– Dynamic downscaling
Emission scenarios
– IPCC
Climate response modeling
Scale to Ski Area
Estimate effects on snow
– SRM
– Snow depth
- SNTHRM
Study Approach• We used computer “models” to calculate
how changes in temperature and precipitation will affect the snowpack
• We calculated changes in snow coverage and snow depth at different elevations at different times of the year Example
Model Domain and Elevation Zones
• Model domain sliced up into elevation zones
• Each zone spans ~250 vertical m
Example: Aspen area
Thaynes Canyon Historical Average Air Temperatures
(1988-2006)• Snow accumulation
historically begins in late October
• Snowmelt historically begins in mid-April
Snow accumulation
Thaynes Canyon Historical Average Air Temperatures
(1988-2006)• Lose snow on
the shoulder seasons
• Ski season starts later and ends earlier
Reduced snowaccumulation
Park City: Snow Depth Ski Area Base 2030
Snow Depth Ski Area Base 2075
Snow Depth Top of Ski Area 2075
Hydrologic Impacts are large
Wet avalanches start date: Aspen Mtn
Lazar and Williams, 2008
Wet avalanches start date: Aspen Mtn
Lazar and Williams, 2008
14 days
Wet avalanches start date: Aspen Mtn
Lazar and Williams, 2008
36 days
Wet avalanches start date: Aspen Mtn
Lazar and Williams, 2008
56 days
March 2010 issue
Increasing avalanchesIncreasing rockfallDisappearing snow and ice
I got into Climbing mag before my son who climbs 5.14
JonnyCopp
MicahDash
WadeJohnson
Our we already getting more avalanches?
Boulder climbers killed by avy in China
Mountain Pine Beetle
Niwot Ridge D1
NWT LTER12,700’
Himalayan hydrology
Himalayan water tower
Himalayan water tower
Terminus Location History- Gangotri Glacier, Uttarkashi district of Garhwal Himalaya, India (Kargel et al. PNAS, 2011)(a point measurement to assess the behavior of a large system)
Glacier data are sparse and mostly limited to terminus fluctuations.
Snow and ice runoff
• Water security to 2 billion people• Impacts US national security• There are countries of interest here:
– Pakistan– Afghanistan– India– China
• Will major rivers run dry because of climate change?
Armstrong 2010
David Michel, The Stimson Center
Himalayan Glaciers, Hydrology, Climate Change, and
Implications for Water Security• NRC committee to summarize current state
of knowledge• Sponsor: “Intelligence community”• USAID: $5,400,000 award to Armstrong
and Williams to study same problem
Digital elevation model - SRTM (90m spatial resolution).
Glacier outlines (ASTER)Catchment basins (remote
sensing+DEM)Runoff data (DHM Nepal) Water samples (stream and glacier surface)
Remote sensing and field methodsRemote sensing and field methodsEverest
Khumbu glacier
Water sampling,Water sampling,Khumbu, Nov 2009Khumbu, Nov 2009
Mera glacier (6,450m), Mera glacier (6,450m), Nepal- a benchmark Nepal- a benchmark glacierglacier(IRD France)(IRD France)
Area-Altitude Mass Balance Model: Area-Altitude Mass Balance Model: Define Accumulation and Ablation Areas
• ELA0 ~ regional 0 o isothermextrapolation from lower elevationmet. stations and NCEP reanalysisupper air data
• ELA0 ~ 5400m for this case study
.
Compute melt below thisaltitude using a regional mass balance gradient
* ELA0 = 4500 – 6200m in the Himalayas (E-W gradient)
Vertical mass balance gradients Vertical mass balance gradients (∂b/∂z)(∂b/∂z)
Yala glacier, NepalYala glacier, Nepal∂∂b/∂z = 1.4 m/100mb/∂z = 1.4 m/100m
(Fujita et al. 1998). Reproduced from Konz et al. 2006.
Accumulation area Ablation area
Bn =1.4m
Bn = 2.8m
Bn =4.2m
Bn =5.6m
Melt runoff volume Melt runoff volume = (mcm)
specific net budget
surface area forelevation band
100m
Mass balance estimates, Dudh Kosi basin
The mass balance volume = specific net budget x surface area of altitudinal belts on the glacier
Bs = bs1Aa1 + bs2Aa2 + bs3Aa3,…+bsnAan
Total ice melt (mcm)
Part 2:
MIXING MODEL
Two components:
•One Conservative Tracer
• Mass Balance Equations for Water and Tracer
δ18O trends, Meragroundwater
x
Monitoring changes in glaciers and glacier lakesMonitoring changes in glaciers and glacier lakes
Image is a portion of an uncalibrated ASTER Level 1A VNIR false-color image (321RGB), acquired on November 20, 2001
Bhutan Himalaya
Tibet Himalaya
2 kilometers2 kilometersN
Lugge TshoThorthomi Tsho
Raphsthreng Tsho
Monitoring Supraglacial and ProglacialMonitoring Supraglacial and Proglacial LakesLakes
The stagnating termini of glaciers in the Bhutan Himalaya. Glacial lakes have been rapidly forming on the surfaces of debris-covered glaciers worldwide during the last few decades.
5x5 km2
30x30 km2
Himalayan Glacial Retreat and Advance
Scherler, Bookhagen, Strecker, 2011 – nature geoscience
Spatially variableNo consistent retreat
5x5 km2
30x30 km2
Example from the Sutlej: Hydrograph distinguishing between snow and ice melt
and rainfall
Wulf, Bookhagen, Scherler, in review – WRRFigure Sutlej Glacier ice melt only about 10%
Annual discharge increasing in Indus River
Kabul groundwater
Draft evaluation
• Himalayan glaciers will not disappear by 2030
• Himalayan glaciers not melting at fastest rates in the world
• Himalayan glacial melt a minor contributor to the Ganges River
• Himalayan rivers will not go dry in 2030• Hydrology problems overblown
Climate change will impact water security in the HKH region
• Glaciers in the HKH are melting• Just not fastest rates in the world• Changes in monsoon and westerly flow the
chief cause• Surface/groundwater interactions unknown• Groundwater engineering needed,
particularly northern India, Pakistan
The cryosphere is on life supportSki and climb while you can
Makalu from Mera
Thank you!
Funding from NSF DDRI, NASA ESSFunding from NSF DDRI, NASA ESSNSF Supplemental GrantNSF Supplemental GrantLTER programLTER programWorld Bank, Nepal (Harshadeep N.); World Bank, Nepal (Harshadeep N.); ICIMOD, Kathmandu, NepalICIMOD, Kathmandu, NepalDHM, Kathmandu,NepalDHM, Kathmandu,NepalIRD FranceIRD FranceGLIMS team – NSIDC, BoulderGLIMS team – NSIDC, BoulderLocal people for field helpLocal people for field help
AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements