BOOK REVIEW

S. Nishioka and H. Harasawa (eds.): 1998,Global Warming: The Potential Impacton Japan, Springer, Tokyo, 244 pp., 50 figs.

Global Warming: The Potential Impact on Japanpresents a thorough discussion ofthe research to date on potential implications of global warming for Japan’s ecosys-tems, agriculture and infrastructure. The book includes introductory and summarychapters, and one chapter each focusing on ecosystems, agriculture and fisheries,water resources, infrastructure and human health. Each chapter starts with a useful2–4 page summary of the conclusions drawn from a literature search of primarilyJapanese sources, and the rest of the chapter presents more details and implicationsof these conclusions. Unfortunately, the chapters do not interweave their themesvery well, which is ironic since one of the conclusions of the authors is the needfor more cross-disciplinary collaborations.

The first chapter presents a review of climate change projections based on sev-eral global climate models with relevance for Japan. The surface air temperature ofJapan is predicted to rise between 1 and 2.5◦C and precipitation to change from –5to +10% at the time of doubling of CO2. Sea levels will rise as will sea surface tem-peratures, and ocean currents will probably change. There is also the possibility ofmore intense weather events. More detailed research in this area is clearly neededin order to more accurately predict likely climate changes and, therefore, how toimplement useful mitigation strategies.

The second chapter on the impacts expected for natural land ecosystems isthe largest and most comprehensive. As someone who works in a related field,I found the summary of results, which are often reported in Japanese, most helpful.It was also nice to read a comprehensive review of all the varied implications for aparticular region, as a reminder of all the effects one must consider. Japan’s naturalecosystems span a surprising array, including subtropical forests, conifer forests,mangroves, peat bogs and grasslands. The authors do an excellent job of reviewingthe possible threats to these ecosystems and their chances of migrating to moresuitable ground.

One of the most important impacts for humanity is the effect of climate changeon the food industry and this topic is dealt with in detail in the third chapter.The impacts on Japan’s agriculture, such as soil erosion, shortage of soil water,land degradation, the increase of weeds, diseases and pests are reviewed, as arepossible mitigation methods such as introducing new crops and changing plant

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management. Japan currently grows 22% of its own cereals, and while this mayincrease slightly via an increased growing area into Hokkaido, the quality of therice may diminish and it seems clear that Japan should try to produce more of itsown food. The other staple of Japanese cuisine is fish, and this sector is shownto be at great risk from climate change. Salmon in particular may be threatened,although sardine yields may increase. As the authors point out, in conjunction withthe impacts of overfishing and habitat destruction, climate change may seriouslydamage the fishing industry and Japan needs to address this problem.

Freshwater and seawater ecosystems are also dealt with in the fourth chapter.A great deal of research is reviewed here as Japan is thoroughly surrounded andthreaded throughout with water. The results of this chapter are especially disturb-ing. Increases in water temperature may decrease the size of plankton, and anytimethe base of the food chain is tinkered with, we must be wary. A further threatto fresh water lakes is the potential for algae blooms, eutrophication, increasedpollution, and massive fish die-offs from water that is too hot. Ocean ecosystemsare under threat from increasing temperatures as well, both from general warmingand shifting of ocean currents. Japan’s offshore fishing grounds are currently one ofthe richest in the world because of the confluence of subarctic and tropical oceancurrents, which could change with changing climate and current driving winds.Also threatened by changing currents are Japan’s coral reefs which receive influxesof coral larvae from the tropics needed for replenishment whenever local conditionshurt the Japanese population, thus providing the mechanism for the continuation ofthe world’s northernmost coral reefs.

One of the greatest areas of danger for the island nation are the coastal plainswhere 50% of the population lives and 70% of its assets are located. These lowlying plains may be severely damaged by flooding, sea level rise and increases inthe frequency of storm waves. The impact of invading water on industry, energydemands and human settlements is presented in chapter 5, including a brief re-view of monetary estimates for building embankments and breakwaters to preventwater damage. This chapter also presents a breakdown of the energy use in Japanbetween industry and homes, heating and air conditioning, and so forth. The au-thors speculate on the impact of warming on this distribution of energy and waterdemands.

The sixth chapter on the impacts of climate change on human health is quiteshort reflecting the fact that little research has been done on this area for Japan.Heat related death statistics are given and the potential for malaria in southernJapan is discussed.

The final chapter summarizes the results and discusses the need for more re-search in the area of local pollution. The authors conclude that a methodologyfor studying the vulnerability of Japan to extreme events as well as long-termclimate change is needed, although sufficient evidence already exists to justify theconstruction and research of preventative measures, especially along the coasts.

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This book is essential for anyone studying the impacts of climate change onJapan, but will also be useful for anyone wanting a review of Japanese scientificresults on the effects of climate change on agriculture, fisheries, and land and waterecosystems. While review articles are generally useful, these have the added benefitof presenting a body of literature which is often inaccessible to those who don’tread Japanese. This book would be a good central text for an advanced under-graduate course as it presents so many of the potential effects of climate change forone country in a manageable format.

Center for Climate System Research (CCSR), PRUDENCE FOSTERUniversity of Tokyo,Tokyo 153-8904,Japan