Why de-leveraging and the costs of

retiring baby-boomers will spark

a Super debateRPRC Breakfast, University of

Auckland, April 13

We (and the world) can’t afford our gold

plated pension schemes

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

It’s all about de-leveraging

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

Deposits and LVRs

With 95% LVR Leverage 20 to 1

$50k = $ 1mlnBut 80% LVR

Leverage 5 to 1$50k = $250k

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

Giant debt boom

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

The growth was false

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

Bigger than 1929

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

Lending collapse

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

Big fat ATM

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

Same here too

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

Bubble pumped up

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

Way too much air

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

So what happens now?

Deleveraginghas only just begun

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

Pass the parcel

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

7 years long25% of GDP= NZ$45 bln

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

Not sustainable

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

Not sustainable

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

Indebted future

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

Saving more

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

Weak spending

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

Weak lending

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

Slow turnover

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

House price fall?

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

House price fall?

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

Beep Beep

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

Rising interest rates

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

Variable cheaper

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

Mind the Gap

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

One big boom

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

Battle of generations

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

So many old, sick people

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

Indebted future

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

Indebted future

A debate is required

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13

Who will pay and how?

RPRC Breakfast, University of Auckland, April 13