Rosswall scenarios for policy - 2012-09-05
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Transcript of Rosswall scenarios for policy - 2012-09-05
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Second Global Conference on Food Security, Agriculture and Climate Change, Hanoi 2012
Scenarios for Policy: Transforming Food Systems, Landscapes and
Farming for the 21st Century
Thomas Rosswall Chair, CCAFS Independent Science Panel
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Based on Bennett et al. (in prep.)
Contribution of agriculture to crossing planetary boundaries
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To 2090, ensemble mean of 14 climate models
Thornton et al. (2010) ILRI/CCAFS
>20% loss 5-20% loss No change 5-20% gain >20% gain
Length of growing period (%)
Climate change much faster & more severe than previously anticipated
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Still much uncertainty about climate futures e.g. among different models
Change in average annual precipitation, 2000-2050, CSIRO GCM, A1B (mm)
Change in average annual precipitation, 2000-2050, MIROC GCM, A1B (mm)
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Many interlinked drivers and risks
WEF (2011)
Many interlinked drivers and risks
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Transformational adaptation in agriculture
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Rickards & Howden, 2012)
Farmers strongly attached to their land
The change should be responsive and anticipatory with a high level of adaptive capacity.
Transformation in agriculture
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Transformation in institutions that support agriculture
finance
policy incentives
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Prepare ahead for long-term, locally-relevant futures
... with current knowledge about climate and plant physiology. It takes 20 yrs for common uptake in farmers’ fields. Plan now for 2030. Session 3 will report on interventions appropriate for the 21st century CSA in drylands.
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Prefer multiple entry points over single interventions
Farmer map of farming system, Bangladesh Source: FAO
Session 3 will look at future potentials for C markets to address CSA
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Tackle poverty as the key barrier to transformation
Session 3 will give examples of successful interventions in vulnerable areas; building assets, strengthening livelihoods and transforming landscapes.
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Take action across the whole food system
From Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change, 2012
Session 3 will address some options.
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New partnerships are essential
• Farmers • Private sector • Civil society • Governments
Scientists
In the past ...
Increasingly and in the future ...
Scientists
• Governments • Farmers
... with participatory agenda setting
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