GCARD 2, Punta Del Este, 29/10 to 1/11

Regional scenarios: potential to influence policy

Katindi Sivi Njonjo, program director Kenya, Society for International Development

2 • 3/21/11

• CCAFS and ECI Oxford are organizing regional socio-economic scenarios in CCAFS regions to build regional capacity for governance: improving food security, environments and livelihoods across sectors under uncertainty

• Society for International Development

• Panos

• CCAFS, SID, PANOS have facilitated the development and use of regional scenarios with regional stakeholders across sectors in East Africa

Regional scenarios in EA:CCAFS, SID, PANOS

3 • 3/21/11

• Socio-economic scenarios explore future uncertainties for the region in terms of their effects on food security, environments and livelihoods

• Stakeholder-driven scenarios combined with modelling; complementary to climate scenarios

• SID: inter-sectoral engagement partner and facilitators with long regional scenarios experience; civil society perspective

• PANOS: documenting and disseminating the process; providing media perspective

Regional scenarios in EA:CCAFS, SID, PANOS

4 • 3/21/11

Fragmented status quo

Reactive governance

Proactivegovernance

Regional integrationIndustrious ants Herd of Zebra

Lone Leopards Sleeping Lions

5 • 3/21/11

•Scenarios used in planning workshops: civil society and some private sector actors; policy workshop with senior policy advisors

•Choice to go for technical advisors to get in-depth perspective – potential to influence policy

Regional scenarios in EA:CCAFS, SID, PANOS

6 • 3/21/11Planning with scenarios

Shared future goals

Decision makers in

the present

Scenarios as diverse future contexts

What challenges and opportunities do we face in each scenario context as we try to get from our

desired futures to the present?

7 • 3/21/11

•Scenarios used in planning workshops: civil society and some private sector actors; policy workshop with senior policy advisors

•Choice to go for technical advisors to get in-depth perspective – potential to influence policy

Regional scenarios in EA:CCAFS, SID, PANOS

8 • 3/21/11

• Participants report strong learning through scenarios and back-casting

• Resulting plans tackle CSO and FO voices in regional governance

• Plans are specifically focused on building regional capacity

• EAC officer to budget meeting: non-state actor partnerships are essential

Results so far

9 • 3/21/11

• Plans have yet to become reality• The most senior policy makers

have yet to be involved – workshop format might not be most appropriate

• We have yet to track impact of people taking the work back to their ministries

• Competing interests in ministries; political reality competing with practicality of solutions

• High-level private sector actors have yet to be engaged

Challenges

10 • 3/21/11

• SID: continual stakeholder engagement

• Organizing meetings and contact between smaller groups of state and non-state partners specifically related to workshop plans

• Engaging wider stakeholders: policy makers, private sector

• PANOS: dissemination, visibility, engagement on a broader scale through radio, video, newspapers, social media

Way forward and role of SID and PANOS

11 • 3/21/11

KATINDI EMAIL INSERT

CGARD brief: No foresight, no food? http://www.egfar.org/sites/default/files/files/Foresight%20Briefs/Joost_Vervoort_Brief03_Final.pdf

Thank you

12 • 3/21/11

• Duration: about 2.5 years, shorter in new regions

• By CCAFS/University of Oxford and local partners Society for International Development and PANOS

• Involved around 100 stakeholders from all sectors at a regional level, including EAC

• Cost: around 600K USD in EA• Funded by CCAFS, new model

involves other sponsors

Features of the process

13 • 3/21/11Beef production: historic and scenarios in 1000 Mtons

14 • 3/21/11

• Non-state actors workshop: predominantly civil society including East African Farmers Federation and others

• Plans for engagement with state actors under different scenarios were developed and partnerships proposed

• Later, in policy workshop with the EAC, the role of farmers federations and specifically the EAFF came up as a key role to support by governments

Equitable partnerships

15 • 3/21/11

• Shifting the global role of researchers in multi-stakeholder foresight spaces

• Inclusive and equitable regional capacity for strategy development needs to be supported on a continual basis to develop partnerships and get to action

• Supporting experienced local (e.g. regional) CSOs with a relatively neutral position, experience in the methodology and a good network to be the focal point for partnerships

Call to action

16 • 3/21/11

Joost.vervoort@eci.ox.ac.uk

CGARD brief: No foresight, no food? http://www.egfar.org/sites/default/files/files/Foresight%20Briefs/Joost_Vervoort_Brief03_Final.pdf

Chaudhury M, Vervoort J, Kristjanson P, Ericksen P, Ainslie A (2012) Participatory scenarios as a tool to link science and policy on food security under climate change in East Africa. Regional Environmental Change:1-10

Thank you