Policy Scenarios for the Longevity Dividend

Anders SandbergFuture of Humanity Institute

Oxford Uehiro Centre for Practical Ethics

Eudoxa

Scenario Planning

Making Scenarios of Life Extension

Driving factors

Speed of progressKind of interventionCostPsychology/sociologyBelief it is possibleResearch environmentFinanceOpposition groupsSupporting groupsInternational issuesCrisesTechnological singularity

Driving factors

Speed of progressKind of interventionCostPsychology/sociologyBelief it is possibleResearch environmentFinance Opposition groupsSupporting groupsInternational issuesCrisesTechnological singularity

The Scenarios

  LE seen as impossible or hard

LE seen as likely

Fast progress 

“Tipping Point” “Star Trek”

Slow progress “Sinking Feeling”

“Hype”

“Sinking Feeling”

• LE problematic research goal, little support from the public.

• The messiness of the mammalian body wear out hopeful interventions.

• Researchers blame lack of funding.Public (and funding bodies) prefer toinvest in more promising fields.

• General view of life extensionsomewhat negative.

• Other technologies?

“Tipping Point”

• Public perceptions of LE are pessimistic, but research makes a breakthrough. Society is suddenly faced with a dramatic shift it was not prepared for.

• Research solve problem after problem, individually with little effect but eventually covering enough.

• Sensation, surprise, worry• Polarized opinion• Previous demographic stakeholders• First impact financial• Gradually reduced polarization as

practice develops.

“Hype”

• LE is believed to be imminent and worthwhile, but the actual research is progressing slower than expected.

• Early impressive successes • “War on ageing” and “Ageing Race”• Longevity projects, LE partnerships industry-

academia-healthcare• Longevity studies departments on every

campus, gerontotechnology buzzword.• Change investment in future• Scandals, inefficiency, bubbles

“Star Trek”

• LE is progressing, and the public is aware of it. • Steady stream demonstrations, treatments for

particular aspects of ageing, eventually signs of limiting or reversing the accumulation of damage.

• Even partial treatments improve health and lifespan.

• Uncertainties stimulate market for longevity and mortality bonds.

• Experimentation with institutions• Greying of society “trendy”• Developing ways of paying for

worthwhile treatments.

What learned

• Importance of appropriate expectations.– We need metrics– Can researchers manage expectations?

• Uncertainties:– The type of intervention matters– Willingness to pay for health span– Institutional change– Reproduction

• Other factors:– Variability increasing– How handle disasters?

• Need to get rid of institutional rigidities sensitiveto demographic and longevity shifts

CERN

Concerns for policy

• What we know we know

• What we know we don’t know

• What we don’t know we don’t know

• What we don’t know we know