Q4 2006 TELUS investor conference call Robert McFarlane • EVP & Chief Financial Officer
Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer September 16, 2004 2004 Telecom & Cable Debt...
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Transcript of Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer September 16, 2004 2004 Telecom & Cable Debt...
Robert McFarlaneEVP & Chief Financial Officer
September 16, 2004
2004 Telecom & Cable Debt Conference
2
This presentation and answers to questions contain forward-looking statements about expected future events and financial and operating results that are subject to risks and uncertainties. TELUS’ actual results, performance, or achievement could differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements. For additional information on potential risk factors including those associated with the potential completion of the Microcell bid, see TELUS’ Annual Information Form, the Offers to Purchase and Circular, and other filings with securities commissions in Canada and the United States.
TELUS disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
All dollars in C$ unless otherwise specified.
forward-looking statement
3
Executing national growth strategy focused on data, IP & wireless from position of financial strength
2nd largest Canadian telco
2004E1: Revenues $7.45 to 7.55B
EBITDA2 $2.975 to 3.075B
FCF $1.15 to 1.25B
Enterprise value: $16.5B ($7.2B debt - book value)
Listings: TSX: T, T.A; NYSE: TU
Operating segments: wireline: TELUS Communicationswireless: TELUS Mobility
1 Updated guidance on August 6, 2004 2 Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation & amortization, after restructuring and workforce reduction costs.
about TELUS
4
ILEC: full service in W. Canada and E. Quebec non-ILEC: data & IP for businesses in Central Canada
Revenue (2004E)1 $4.7 to 4.8B
EBITDA (2004E)1 $1.925 to 1.975B
Network Access Lines 4.8M
Total Internet Subscribers 925K (624K high-speed)
Fibre IP backbone national
1 Updated guidance on August 6, 2004
TELUS Communications segment
5
31.8M: Cdn. PopulationLicensed POPs
29.7M (93% of POPs)Network coverage
best in CanadaSpectrum position
only one in Canada (Nextel in US)iDEN Mike network
coast to coast 1X (CDMA)National footprint
$1.05 to 1.1BEBITDA (2004E)1
$2.675 to 2.725BRevenue (2004E)1
3.6MSubscribers
leading Canadian national wireless provider
1 Updated guidance on August 6, 2004
TELUS Mobility segment
6
65%
$340M
68%$274M$163MNet Income
$0.76$0.46EPS2
4.4%$3.67B$3.51BRevenue
9.1%$1.51B$1.38BEBITDA1
YTD Q2-04 change YTD Q2-03
1 After restructuring & workforce reduction costs of $17M & $ 10M for YTD Q2-04 & YTD Q2-03, respectively.2 Incl. impacts of tax settlements & related interest of $0.17 & $0.15 in YTD Q2-04 & YTD Q2-03, respectively
significant earnings & free cash flow generation
$673M$333MFree Cash Flow3
3 Defined as EBITDA, adding Restructuring and workforce reduction costs, cash interest received and excess of share compensation expense over share compensation payments, subtracting cash interest paid, cash taxes, capital expenditures, and cash restructuring payments.
2004 YTD review - consolidated
7 Voice focused balanced growth
$5.7B
43%
18%
10%
6%Other
12ME Q2-04
$7.3B
Local Voice
Wireless
Data29%
36%
19%
4%Other
LD
Wireless
12ME Q2-00
Local Voice
23%
Data
13%
LD
TELUSCommunications
TELUSCommunications
TELUSMobility
TELUSMobility
Consolidated revenue profile evolution
8 33% of TELUS EBITDA now coming from Mobility
$2.2B
83%
17%
12ME Q2-04
$2.9B
12ME Q2-00
TELUSCommunications
TELUSCommunications
TELUSMobility
TELUSMobility
Consolidated EBITDA profile evolution
67%
33%
9 significant cash flow generation from Mobility
$1.3B
82%
18%
12ME Q2-04
$1.5B
12ME Q2-00
TELUSCommunications
TELUSCommunications
TELUSMobility
TELUSMobility
Consolidated cash flow1 profile evolution
60%
40%
EBITDA less Capex
1 EBITDA less Capex
10
2004 guidance implies significant improvement in profitability, cash flow & leverage
approx. 1.3B$1.25BCapex
$1.15B to 1.25B
$1.30 to 1.50
$2.975 to 3.075B
$7.45 to 7.55B
current 2004 guidance1
$845M
$0.92
$2.82B
$7.15B
2003 actuals
EPS
Free Cash Flow
EBITDA
Revenue
< 2.3x2.6xNet Debt : EBITDA
change
0.3x
4%
36 to 48%
41 to 63%
6 to 9%
4 to 6%
1 Updated guidance provided on August 6, 2004
2004 financial outlook - consolidated
11
strategic imperatives 2000-2004
Provide integrated solutions
Partner, acquire & divest as necessary
Invest in internal capabilities
Build national capabilities
Focus on growth markets
Going to market as one team
consistent strategy
12
2004 corporate priorities
Reaching a collective agreement
Growing brand value through superior customer service
Revitalizing wireline growth
Driving towards leadership in high-speed Internet
Enhancing our leadership position in wireless
Embracing continual cost efficiency
Status
ongoing
ongoing
ongoing
ongoing
13
labour relations update
Feb/04 - arbitration reconsideration application to CIRB remains outstanding
May/04 - CIRB TELE-MOBILE decision (common employer, automatic inclusion of TM East employees ) appeal to Federal Court scheduled early October
Labour relations developments within telecom sector reflect industry realities
on-going process - awaiting CIRB reconsideration ruling
reaching a collective agreement
14
customer service update
Wireline:
Service levels substantially improved since Q3-03 challenges
Meeting or exceeding standards for up to 10 consecutive months on key CRTC service indicators
Area of continued focus
Wireless:
Best-in-class service levels as evidenced by low churn
growing brand value through superior customer service
Wireline operating at superior levels of customer service
15
Digital home continuing high-speed Internet growth
home networking
new applications (e.g. home security, IPTV, etc.)
Bundling & price increases bundling strategy protects legacy revenues
LD system access fee increased
Geographic expansion high quality, recurring, IP-based revenues in non-ILEC
leverage technological leadership and service differentiation that TELUS Next Generation Network (NGN) provides
revitalizing wireline growth
consumer & business initiatives
16
high speed Internet subscriber growth
Total Internet subscribers
67%
High Speed
33%Dial-up
925K
continued market share growth
Driving towards leadership in high-speed Internet
35%
30%
39%
TELUS high-speed market share1
Q2-03Q2-02 Q2-04
1 In ILEC operating areas
17
Canadian wireless penetration growth prospects
4 million or more net adds expected over next 3 yrs
enhancing our leadership position in wireless
Source: Industry analysts
2003
42%
2007E
55-59%
2004
~46%
13.4Msubs
18-19Msubs
~15Msubs
18
TELUS Mobility ranked #1 operator in North America
#1. TELUS Mobility
2. Verizon Wireless
3. Nextel
4. Alltel
5. Bell Mobility
6. Alamosa PCS
7. Nextel Partners
8. AirGate PCS
9. Sprint PCS
10. T-Mobile (USA)
11. Rogers Wireless
12. Western Wireless
13. US Cellular
14. Cingular
15. US Unwired
16. Ubiquitel
17. MetroPCS
18. AT&T Wireless
19. Leap Wireless
20. Dobson
21. Triton PCS
22. Microcell
Source: N. Moore Capital, Value Metric Rankings, Q2-04
enhancing our leadership position in wireless
19
TELUS Mobility BCE WirelessRogers Wireless
$55
$46$45
Source: Company reports
$58
$48$49
Microcell
$38 $39
continued leadership in ARPU
YTD Q2-03
YTD Q2-04
significant premium with positive industry-wide trend
enhancing our leadership position in wireless
20
leading performance in churn
BCE T-Mobile
2.7%
2.3%
1.4%
1.8%1.6%
1.3% 1.3%
TELUSNextelSprint PCS
Rogers Verizon
3.5%
CingularMicrocell
3.4%2.8%
AT&T
TELUS’ Q2 churn rate is best-in-class
enhancing our leadership position in wireless
21
Profitable subscriber growth strategy
TELUS achieving profitable subscriber growth
enhancing our leadership position in wireless
$737M1.5M
12ME Q2-04 EBITDA growth
12ME Q2-04subscriber growth
Source: Company reports. Sum of reported net adds & wireless EBITDA for BCE, Rogers Wireless, Microcell, TELUS Mobility
TELUSMobility
40%31%
TELUSMobility
22
status of Microcell bid $1.1B offer to purchase all outstanding publicly traded securities of Microcell May 17,
2004
Entered confidentiality agreement & commenced diligence in June
Microcell released poor Q2 results with negative value implications
Industry Canada lifted wireless spectrum cap
Offers extended three times – latest to expire Sept 20
Competition Bureau review of TELUS offer in advanced stages
TELUS offers outstanding for 4 months, yet still no competing offer
TELUS bid fair & reasonable
enhancing our leadership position in wireless
23
Achieved $50M in incremental annual OEP savings YTD 2004
Cumulative annual savings of $504M to June 30, 2004
On track for cumulative annual savings of ~$550M in 2004 & onward
Combining Business & Client Solutions into one business unit to improve efficiency & effectiveness under leadership of Joe Natale
View successful 2001-2004 OEP as platform for
further necessary improvements
operational efficiency program (OEP)
delivering operational efficiency
strengthening financial position credit profile
25
Average term to maturity ~5.7 years1
No long-term debt maturities until June, 2006
Consolidated fixed to floating ratio a conservative 93%
Foreign currency debt is fully hedged
TCI A/R securitization program at minimum $150M level
Continued simplification of debt structure
TELUS Communications (Quebec) Inc. amalgamated into TELUS Communications Inc effective July, 2004
85% of total debt at TELUS Corp.
1 As at June 30, 2004
credit profile
debt overview
26
1 364-Day (extendible) with a one-year term out. At June 30, 2004, no borrowings exist under the Bank credit facilities. TCI may also borrow on the bank credit facility. Does not include additional $500M Backstop facility available until the earlier of 364 days after closing of Microcell transaction or October 31, 2005.
2 $70M of MTN’s and $30M of mortgage bonds are former TELUS Communications (Quebec) Inc. notes that were transferred to TELUS Communications Inc. in July, 2004.
credit profile
current debt structure
TELUS Corporation
MaturityBank1 - 364 Day $0.8B revolver May 2005 - 4 Year $0.8B revolver May 2008C$ 7.5% Notes $1.6B June 2006US$ 7.5% Notes C$1.8B June 2007US$ 8.0% Notes C$3.0B June 2011
TELUS Communications Inc.
•Mortgage Bonds2 $0.030B•MTN’s2 $0.070B•Debentures $0.799B•Net Sr. Notes to TC $2.3B
100%
27
Debt Maturity Schedule
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
H2-04 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012+
C$ millions
Strong free cash flow generation means limited refinancing required in 2006/2007
debt structure - maturities
credit profile
1 TELUS Communications Inc. repaid $210M of maturing debt in August, 2004.
1
28
bank credit facility (1 of 2)
Early 2004, TELUS approached banks to renew maturing facilities
Received commitments well in excess of $1.6B of facilities accepted
$800M 364-day facility (extendible) with a one-year term out
$800M 4-year facility
Superior pricing, more flexible reporting & other covenants relative to previous facilities
improved credit facility terms & lengthened maturity
credit profile
29
bank credit facility (2 of 2)
No drawn amounts under either facility, at June 30, 2004
4-year facility expires in May 2008, one year after the 2007 US Notes
Additional underwritten commitment for $500M unsecured credit facility for Microcell bid
Available until the earlier of Oct 31, 2005 or 364 days after the offer to purchase Microcell is completed
TELUS’ liquidity position expected to remain strong
credit profile
30
credit rating update – changes in 2004
March 2, 2004 – Moody’s upgrade to Baa3 from Ba1
May 14, 2004 – Following TELUS’ bid for Microcell:
Moody’s – reaffirmed ratings, stable outlook
Fitch – reaffirmed ratings, stable outlook
DBRS – under review, developing
S&P – creditwatch, negative (due to transaction uncertainty)
bid for Microcell not expected to have long-term ratings impact
credit profile
31
current credit ratings
TELUS Corporation (TC) DBRS BBB Under Review (Developing) S&P BBB CreditWatch (Negative) Fitch BBB Stable Outlook Moody’s Baa3 Stable Outlook
TELUS Communications Inc. (TCI) DBRS BBB(high) Under Review (Developing) S&P BBB CreditWatch (Negative) Fitch BBB Stable Outlook
100%
credit profile
DBRS rates TCI one notch better than TC
32
1,185 379(692)FCF1 ($M)
85%86%85%Parent debt : Total Debt2
2.4x 3.0x3.6xNet Debt : EBITDA
51.9%55.7%59.6%Net Debt : Capital
BBB/Ba1
9,120
June 2003 Actual
BBB/Baa3BBB/Ba1Credit Rating
7,2239,241Net Debt ($M)
June 2004 Actual
June 2002 Actual
demonstrated credit improvement
1 12-month trailing Free Cash Flow2 Percentage of total debt at TELUS Corp. (Parent level) - inclusive of bank facility & hedge liability
significantly enhanced credit metrics
credit profile
33
long-term financial policy targets
Deleveraging well ahead of plan
45 to 50% (long term)
51.9%55.7%Net Debt : Capital
Q2-04
Current Guidance2
Q2-03
<2.3X (end of 2004)
<2.2X (long-term)
2.4X3.0XNet Debt : EBITDA
Former Guidance1
50% (long term)
<2.5X (end of 2004)
<2.2X (long-term)
1 As provided on December 18, 20032 As provided on August 6, 2004
34
strong free cash flow generation
credit profile
2004E1($M)
$900 to 1,000Cash available for net debt & A/R Sec. reduction
$1,150 to 1,250
30
~(70)Working capital/other
Free Cash Flow
155Net cash tax recovery
~(615)Net cash interest
~(1,300)Capex
$2,975 to 3,075EBITDA (incl. rest. & workforce reduction costs)
Stock compensation (non-cash portion)
~(95)Cash restructuring pmts (in excess of 2004 expense)
Cash dividends ~(180)
1 Updated guidance on August 6, 2004
35
improving free cash flow
$1.1B Microcell acquisition funding approximates only one year of consolidated TELUS free cash flow
2001 2002
2003
$(1.14)B
$(140)M
$1.15B to 1.25B
2004E
$845M
credit profile
36
impact of Microcell acquisition
credit profile
<2.6x <2.3xNet Debt : EBITDA
$3.075 to 3.185B$2.975 to 3.075BEBITDA2
YE 2004E YE 2004E pro forma1
1 Based on current public Microcell guidance, assuming Microcell acquisition completed at current offer price2 Before restructuring & workforce reduction costs.
TELUS long-term financial policy targets still achievable by YE 2005 even with prospective Microcell acquisition
37
10 year comparable new issue spreads
credit profile
January 3, 2004 - September 7, 2004
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
03-J
an-0
4
22-J
an-0
4
10-F
eb-0
4
29-F
eb-0
4
19-M
ar-0
4
07-A
pr-0
4
26-A
pr-0
4
15-M
ay-0
4
03-J
un-04
22-J
un-04
11-J
ul-04
30-J
ul-04
18-A
ug-0
4
06-S
ep-0
4
Sp
read
s (b
ps)
BCE Inc. Telus Corporation Manitoba Telecom Services Inc.TELUS spreads have narrowed but remain much higher versus Cdn peers
Q4 Earnings Release – strong wireless results (-15 to 20 bps)
MTS announcement of Allstream bid (+30 bps)
TELUS 130bps
BCE 85bps
MTS 109bps
Q2 Results
Receive investment grade rating by Moody’s (Baa3) (-15 bps)
Bid for Microcell (+20 bps)
38
As at August 4, 2004
Notes: TELUS data based on 2003 results & mid-point of 2004 guidance Other estimates provided by Bloomberg, company and analyst reports
2004E global telecom performance
projected EBITDA % growth rates
75 4 4
2 2
(4)(6) (7)
(30)
0.10.51
5
(0.2)(2) (2)
TELUS FT DT BCE Sprint Telstra BT VZ Aliant KPN
Nippon PCCW SBC Telia MTS BLS AT&T
39
As at August 4, 2004
Notes: TELUS data based on 2003 results & mid-point of 2004 guidance Other estimates provided by Bloomberg, company and analyst reports
2004E global telecom performance
10 10
65
4
1
(4) (5) (5)
(9)
(17)
(25)
(0.6)(2)
(1)(0.5)
9
TELUS Sprint Aliant BCE VZ FT Telstra
SBC Nippon DT Telia PCCW BT BLS KPN MTS AT&T
projected Cash Flow (EBITDA - Capex) % growth rates
40
TELUS Mobility high proportion of consolidated revenue and cash flow executing materially ahead of plan
TELUS Communications good results relative to peers revenue composite de-emphasizes LD
Strong 2004 cash flow & earnings outlook
Generating significant cash flow of >$1B
Continued material debt & leverage reduction
TELUS demonstrating ability to meet or exceed all leverage targets
strong investment-grade credit profile
why invest in TELUS?
questions?
appendix
44
TELUSCorporation
TELUS Communications Inc.
Senior Notes: $3.1B
Subordinated Equity Settled Note: $3.6B
intercompany financing1 (as at June 30, 2004)
Senior Note: $0.8B
Subordinate Note: $3.2B
1 Excludes net advances owed from TC to TCI of $1.6B at June 30, 2004.
TELUS Corporation has a net $2.3B senior claim at TCI thereby mitigating structural subordination concerns
appendix
45
TELUS Communications Inc. key metrics
June 30/03 June 30/04(12 months ended)
Net Debt : Total Capitalization 31.6% 30.3%
Net Debt : EBITDA1 2.2x 1.5x
Net Debt ($M) 4,128 4,139
1 after restructuring & workforce reduction costs
appendix
46
Comparative credit ratios
appendix
1 Defined as EBITDA less capex, cash taxes, and interest for trailing 12 months.2 As per TDNewcrest analyst estimates (August 2004).3 As per TELUS public guidance mid-points.
BCE Bell Canada MTS TELUS3
($M) Q2-04 Q2-04 Q2-04 Q2-04
Net Debt : Capital 44.0% 48.0% 26.6% 51.9%
Net Debt : EBITDA 1.8x 1.5x 1.2x 2.4x
Free Cash Flow 1,952 2,368 248 1,185
Free Cash Flow Yield1 10.2% 14.1% 12.1% 16.2%
2004E Free Cash Flow Yield2 11.3% 15.5% 14.6% 16.0%
Credit rating A/Baa1 A/A3 BBB+ BBB/Baa3