Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor...

29
Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call

Transcript of Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor...

Page 1: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

Robert McFarlaneEVP & Chief Financial Officer

December 16, 2008

TELUS 2009 Targetsinvestor conference call

Page 2: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

This session and answers to questions contain forward-looking statements that require assumptions about expected future events and financial and operating results that are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. There is significant risk that assumptions, predictions and other forward-looking statements will not prove to be accurate. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and assumptions as a number of factors could cause actual future results, conditions, actions or events to differ materially from the targets, expectations, estimates or intentions expressed. Except as required by law, TELUS disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise forward-looking statements, and reserves the right to change, at any time at its sole discretion, its current practice of updating annual guidance.

See Key Assumptions and Forward Looking Statements in TELUS Dec. 16, 2008 Targets news release. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include, but are not limited to: competition (including more active price competition and the likelihood of new wireless competitors beginning to offer services in 2009 following the AWS spectrum auction); economic growth and fluctuations (including the global credit crisis, and pension performance, funding and expenses); capital expenditure levels (increased in 2009 and potentially future years by the Company’s fourth generation (4G) wireless deployment strategy and any new Industry Canada wireless spectrum auctions); financing and debt requirements (including ability to carry out refinancing activities and fund share repurchases); tax matters (including acceleration or deferral of required payments of significant amounts of cash taxes); human resource developments; business integrations and internal reorganizations (including post-acquisition integration of Emergis); technology (including reliance on systems and information technology, broadband and wireless technology options and choice of suppliers, expected technology and evolution path and transition to 4G technology, expected future benefits and performance of HSPA (high speed packet access) / LTE (long-term evolution) wireless technology, successful implementation of the network build and sharing arrangement with Bell Canada to achieve cost efficiencies and reduce deployment risks, successful deployment and operation of new wireless networks and successful introduction of new products, services and supporting systems); regulatory approvals and developments (including interpretation and application of tower sharing and roaming rules, the design and impact of future spectrum auctions, the new media proceeding and possible changes to foreign ownership restrictions); process risks (including conversion of legacy systems and billing system integrations); health, safety and environmental developments; litigation and legal matters; business continuity events (including manmade and natural threats); any prospective acquisitions or divestitures; and other risk factors discussed herein and listed from time to time in TELUS’ reports and public disclosure documents, including its annual report, annual information form, and other filings with securities commissions in Canada (on www.sedar.com) and in its filings in the United States, including Form 40-F (on EDGAR at www.sec.gov).

For further information, see Section 10: Risks and risk management in TELUS’ 2007 annual Management’s discussion and analysis, as well as updates reported in section 10 of TELUS’ 2008 quarterly Management’s discussion and analyses.

TELUS forward looking statements

Page 3: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

2008 guidance update

2009 assumptions & targets

Summary

Questions and answers

Agenda

Page 4: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

2008 segmented guidance – update

Wireline 2008 previous

guidance Nov.7/082008 revised

guidance

Revenue $5.025 - 5.05B approx $5.025B

EBITDA $1.75 - 1.775B unchanged

4

Segmented EBITDA guidance unchanged

Wireless2008 previous

guidance Nov.7/082008 revised guidance

Revenue $4.65 - 4.675B approx $4.625B

EBITDA $1.975 - 2.025B unchanged

Page 5: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

2008 consolidated guidance - updated

2008 previous

guidance Nov.7/082008 revised

guidance

Revenue $9.675 - $9.725B approx $9.65B

EBITDA1 $3.725 - $3.8B unchanged

EPS – basic $3.45 - $3.60 unchanged

Capex (excl. $882M for AWS spectrum)

approx $1.9B approx $1.825B

5

EBITDA & EPS guidance unchangedLower capital expenditures reflects $75M deferral to 2009

1 2008E EBITDA includes an estimated $55-60M of restructuring expenses versus $20M in 2007.

Page 6: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

2009 targets

Page 7: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

Strong wireless industry penetration growth similar to 2008 of 4.5 pts

Downward pressure on TELUS wireless ARPU to continue

Competitive wireless entry from most new entrants to begin in 2010 with possible entry beginning Q4-09

Ongoing competitive activity from cable-TV / VoIP players

Ongoing focus on efficiency initiatives with $50-$75M restructuring & workforce reduction costs (approx $55-$60M in 2008)

Exchange rate to average $0.80 USD/CAD

Sensitivity: EBITDA +/- $8M with +/- $0.01 move in rate

Statutory tax rate of 30 to 31% (down 50 bps from 2008)

Net cash tax payment of approx $320-$350M

2009 target assumptions

7

Page 8: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

Pension assumptions

2009 pension expense and funding to increase ~$100MPension funding fully tax deductible

8

Defined Benefit (DB) 2008E 2009E

Discount rate 5.5% 7.0%

Long-term expected return 7.25% no change

Pension expense/(recovery) $(100M) nil

Pension funding $97M $200M

Total (incl. DB and Defined Contr.)

Pension expense/(recovery) $(35M) $70M

Pension funding $160M $265M

Page 9: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

2008E 2009E

~4.625

4.975 to 5.1

2009 wireless revenue target ($B)

9

Increase of 8 to 10% driven by subscriber additions and data revenue growth

Page 10: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

2008E 2009E

1.975 to 2.025

2.1 to 2.175

2009 wireless EBITDA target ($B)

10

Growth of 5 to 9%

Page 11: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

2008E 2009E

~5.025

5.05 to 5.175

2009 wireline revenue target ($B)

11

Growth of up to 3% as data growth offsets increasing competitive intensity

Page 12: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

2008E 2009E

1.75 to 1.775 1.65 to

1.725

2009 wireline EBITDA target ($B)

12

Target reflects increased pension expense of $100M

Note: 2008 and 2009 EBITDA includes $55-$60M and $50-$75M in restructuring costs, respectively.

Page 13: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

2008E

1,750 to 1,775

2009 wireline EBITDA target ($M)

13

2009Etarget

1,650 to 1,725

Excluding incremental pension expense, underlying wireline EBITDA growth of up to 3%

Incremental DB pension

expense

~(100)

0 to 50

EBITDA growth

Page 14: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

Operating efficiency program (OEP) update

Announced at Q3 acceleration of annual OEP initiatives

Managing costs in declining parts of our business to maintain performance and free up resources for growth areas of business

In Q4 have exceeded 2008 annual OEP guidance

Restructuring cost estimate increased to $55 to $60 million (from $50 million)

Multiple OEP initiatives underway continuing into 2009

2009 targets include $50 to $75 million of restructuring costs, predominantly in wireline segment

14

Operating efficiency initiatives enhance operating performance and fund growth investments

Page 15: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

2008E 2009E

9.1~9.65

2007

8.7

2006

2009 consolidated revenue target ($B)

15

10.025 to 10.275

Increase of 4 to 6.5% led by wireless

Page 16: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

2008E 2009E

2009 consolidated EBITDA target ($B)

16

2009 EBITDA growth of up to 4%

Note: 2008 and 2009 EBITDA includes $55-$60M and $50-$75M in restructuring costs, respectively.

3.725 to 3.8

3.75 to 3.9

Page 17: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

2008E1

3,763

2009 consolidated EBITDA target ($M)

17

2009Etarget

3,750 to 3,900

Excluding incremental pension expense, underlying EBITDA growth of 2 to 6%

EBITDA growth

~(100)

87 to 237

IncrementalDB pension

expense1 Midpoint of 2008E guidance range

Page 18: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

20071 2008E2006

2009 EPS ($)

18

Positive tax related adjustments

1 2007 EPS (adjusted) excludes non-cash charge of $0.32 per share for the net cash settlement feature of options

Underlying 2009 EPS growth of up to 10%

2009E

3.33

4.11 3.45 to 3.60

3.40 to 3.70

2.833.33

3.30 to

3.45

Page 19: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

1 Midpoint of updated 2008 guidance

2009 EPS continuity ($)

19

2009 EBITDA growth partially offset by pension and financing costs

~3.53~3.38

~0.15

2008E1 Tax Related

adj.

2008Enormal.

EBITDA growth

0.25 to 0.55

0.22 0.06

Pension Financing Lower o/s shares &

Other

3.40 to 3.70

2009E

0.05

Depr & Amort

0.03

Page 20: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

2008E 2009E

~1.825~2.05

2009 consolidated capex target ($B)

20

TELUS continues to invest prudently for future growth, including broadband wireless and wireline network builds

Page 21: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

2009 capex components

21

$75M of capital expenditures originally planned for 2008 deferred to 2009

National next generation wireless shared network build

Investments in broadband network infrastructure to improve high speed coverage & develop new applications

Success based investments to support new contract wins

Investments in cost efficiency initiatives

Increased investment focused on strategic growth initiatives

Page 22: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

Quarterly dividend previously increased by 5.6% to 47.5 cents per share per quarter for Jan 2, 2009 payment

Planned renewal of NCIB as early as Dec. 20, 2008*

To allow for repurchase of up to 4M common and 4M non-voting shares

Purchases to be managed so TELUS remains within long-term financial policy targets

* Subject to acceptance by TSX

22

Return of capital

Fifth annual dividend increase

Page 23: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

Maintaining strong financial policies and credit ratings:

Dividend payout ratio of 45 to 55% of sustainable earnings

Net debt to EBITDA of 1.5 to 2.0 times

Credit ratings in range of BBB+ to A- or equivalent

Financial policy guidelines

23

Firm commitment to our consistent long-term financial policy guidelines

Page 24: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

TELUS’ funding position

TELUS’ strong balance sheet a result of prudent long-term financial policies

24

Committed $2B credit facility does not expire until May 2012

TELUS confirmed today commitments from Canadian bank syndicate for renewal of $700M 364-day credit facility

Strong position with sustainable cash flows and ample liquidity

Could term-out some existing short-term financing if conditions become advantageous

Page 25: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

TELUS long-term debt maturity schedule

25

Long Term Debt

Deferred FX Hedge Liability

No significant long-term debt maturities until 2011

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019+

C$ billions

Outstanding amount on 2012 credit facility (as at Sept. 30, 2008)

Page 26: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

26

Summary – building on strength

Continuing to invest for future based on prudent financial policies and funding strength

2008 guidance update:

Revenues and capex revised downward while EBITDA and EPS unchanged

2009 targets reflect

Continued revenue growth

Continued execution on operating efficiency initiatives

EBITDA moderately up excluding DB pension expense impact

EPS, excluding tax adjustments, to increase by up to 10%

Capex reflects growth investments in new wireless network, broadband, and success based contracts

Page 27: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

investor relations1-800-667-4871

[email protected]

Questions?

Page 28: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

EBITDA: earnings, after restructuring and workforce reduction costs, before

interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization

Capital intensity: capex divided by total revenue

Cash flow: EBITDA less capex

Free cash flow: EBITDA, adding Restructuring and workforce reduction costs,

cash interest received and excess of share compensation expense over share

compensation payments, subtracting cash interest paid, cash taxes, capital

expenditures, cash restructuring payments, and cash related to Other expenses

such as charitable donations and securitization fees

Appendix - definitions

TELUS definitions for non-GAAP measures

28

Page 29: Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer December 16, 2008 TELUS 2009 Targets investor conference call.

~(485)

2009E

Net Cash Interest

$3,750 to 3,900EBITDA

($M)

~(40)Other1:

Free Cash Flow

1 Includes restructuring expense (net of cash payments), share based compensation (net of cash payments) and cash payments related to charitable donations and securitization fees

~(2,050)Capex

840 to 990

Appendix – 2009E Free cash flow

Net cash tax payment (320) to (350)

Cash pension contribution (in excess of expense) ~(200)

Free Cash Flow (incl. cash pension contribution) 640 to 790

29