1

Student dropout – the elephant in the room of distance education

Alan Woodley and Ormond Simpson

2

Graduation rates - distance education and conventional education

Conventional education institutions Distance education institutions

Cumulative OU graduation rates (%) by year of entry

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

20071971 entry 1976 entry 1981 entry

1971 - 59%

1976 - 51%

1981 - 48%

1994 - 22%

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4

EId = Early Identification of vulnerable students

‘Binary regression analysis’ - calculates a ‘predicted probability of success’ for every student.

02000400060008000

100001200014000

0-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71-80 81-90 91-100

predicted probability of success band

nu

mb

er o

f st

ud

ents

in b

and

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EId = Early Identification - accuracy

0102030405060708090

0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-100

predicted probability of success % actual success rate %6

Probability of suffering depression, unemployment and (women) partner violence, according to educational

experience (Bynner, 2002)

Probability of:

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What happens to students who dropout? - effects of dropout on full-time students in the UK

dropouts

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Importance of learning motivation

“The best predictor of student retention is motivation. Retention services need to clarify and build on motivation and address motivation-reducing issues.

“Most students dropout because of reduced motivation”

(Anderson, 2003)

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Proactive Contact

‘Student self-referral does not work as a mode of promoting persistence. Students who need services the most refer themselves the least.

“Effective retention services take the initiative in outreach and timely interventions with those students.’(Anderson, US)

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Results of the UKOU’s Proactive Student Support (PaSS) Project

Year Students in trial

Increase in retention of

experimental group over control (% points)

2002 2866 3.9%

2003 1354 5.1%

2004 931 4.2%

2005 10,131 7.6%

Totals

02-04

5151 5.04%

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Retention increases using motivational emails

Study Method Increase in completion

Simpson Motivational emails

18.9%

Twyford Motivational emails

11.7%

Huett Motivational emails

23.4%

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Attitudes to student retention 1

The ‘Darwinistas’Students drop out because they're not intelligent enough, unmotivated or lazy.

“We’re here to weed out the unfit”12

Attitudes to student retention 2

The Fatalistas

Students dropout for reasons beyond our control

“Students are doomed to pass or fail and there’s not much we can do about it”13

14Thank you!