Reversing the Oregon Trail: A Beer Expedition
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Transcript of Reversing the Oregon Trail: A Beer Expedition
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OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Reversing the Oregon Trail: A Beer Expedition
November 30th, 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Josh LehnerDisclaimer: The views expressed here donot represent the State of Oregon, the Legislature, nor the Governor.
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OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
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Start-Ups Drive Growth
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OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
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Reversing the Oregon Trail, Pt 1
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OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
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Reversing the Oregon Trail, Pt 2
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Reversing the Oregon Trail, Pt 3
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OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Alcohol Is Better Than Software
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New Opportunity• HB 4146 (2016)
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Additional Work From Previous ResearchMost data through 2014 and has not been updated.
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OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Avenues of Growth• Increase Local Saturation
• Market penetration, multiple locations, etc• New Glarus (WI)
• Domestic Expansion• East Coast Facilities
• Deschutes (OR)• New Belgium (CO)• Sierra Nevada (CA)
• International• Brooklyn Brewery (NY)
• Mergers and Acquisitions• 10 Barrel (OR)• Calapooia (OR)• Hop Valley (OR)
Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-140
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Brewery AcquisitionBarrels of Beer, 12 Month Moving Sum
Source: OLCC, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Moved Siletz 15 bblsystem to Albany
Siletz
Calapooia
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Start-Ups Drive Growth
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OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Lots of Little Guys, Big Dominate
• Smallest 50% of breweries produce 3% of total• Largest 10%
produce 77%• Less inequality
today than in 2005
0.0% 12.0%24.0%36.0%48.0%60.0%72.0%84.0%96.0%0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
0.6%2.9% 9.0%
23.3%
2014 Oregon Beer Production DistributionLots of Small Brewers but Large Dominate
Cumulative Percent of All Breweries
Cum
ulati
ve P
erce
nt o
f Pro
ducti
on
Source: OLCC, Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Equal Distr
ibution
Bottom 50%
Bottom 80%
2005 2.4% 9.0%
2014 2.9% 12.0%
Note: This is Oregon-brewed and Oregon-sold beer only. Exports, domestic and international, are not included. As such, the smallest 50% produce smaller share of total Oregon beer production.
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OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Sasquatch: The Brewpub Model
Sasquatch Brewing’s growth path is stronger, but typical. Start small successful pub, grow, and add some accounts. Now expanding into ciders and 2nd location.
Even with a growing market overall, competition does occur.
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OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Widespread Geographic Footprint
Gorge8.9
Central Oregon5.9
South Central/Southeast Oregon1.6
Northeast Oregon3.1
Portland5.3
Southern Oregon
3.2
WillametteValley
3.5
N. Coast8.3
S. Coast2.0
Alcohol ClusterJobs per 1,000 Population (2013)U.S. 2.9Oregon 4.6
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OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
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For More Information
Josh [email protected](503) 378-4052
Social Media: www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com @OR_EconAnalysis