REMME 20130709 ETP TIMES H2 Roadmap - Microsoft · 2019. 11. 27. · Microsoft PowerPoint - REMME...

Hydrogen Roadmap

Analytical approach of theAnalytical approach of the supply side modelling

Uwe Remme

© OECD/IEA 2013

Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps© OECD/IEA 2013

Low‐carbon energy technology roadmapsJuly 9, 2013

S l id d lliSupply‐side modellingETP‐TIMES

© OECD/IEA 2013

Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps16‐Jul‐13

ETP modelling frameworkgEnergy costs

Primary energy

Conversion sectors

Final energyEnd-use sectors

End-use service demands

Electricity production Material

demands

Fossil

Renewables

Refineries

Synfuelplants

ElectricityGasoline

DieselNatural

gas

Industry

Buildings

demands

Heating

Cooling

Passenger

Nuclear

p

CHP and heat plants

etc.

gHeatetc.

Transport

Passengertravel

Freight

etc. MoMo

Model horizon: 2009‐2050 (2075) in 5 year periods

ETP-TIMES model

MoMomodel

Energy demand

© OECD/IEA 2013


Regional structure of ETP‐TIMESg

• 28 model regions representing individual countries or aggregations of countries• Only one geographic point per model region; differentiation within a single region, e.g. through different resource categories

© OECD/IEA 2013


g g

Structure of supply side model (ETP TIMES)(ETP‐TIMES)

Fuel costs Technical and economic characteristics Electricity and heat demands

H2

Potentials

Load curves

2

H2

H2Electricity prices

Fuel demand

Emissions

• Least‐cost optimisation approach• Methodology developed by ETSAP (Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme) implementing

agreement of the IEA

Generation mix, new capacities

Electricity pricesAverage generation costs

© OECD/IEA 2013


g

Hydrogen supply options

Centralisedhydrogen production

y g pp y p

hydrogen production

Pyrolysis/Gasifier/Reformer

with and without CCS

Natural gasHeavy fuel oilCoalBiomass

H2 distribution

Natural gas pipeline

Natural gas use

H2 use in transport,

max. 10%

Sulfur/Iodine cycle

Electrolysis

NuclearSolar

Electricity

H2 pipeline

H2 storage

transport,industry, buildings,electricity generation,refining

Decentralisedhydrogen production

Electrolysis at fuel stationElectricity H2 gas storage

Reformer at fuel stationNatural gas

Reformer/Gasifierat refinery

Natural gasHeavy fuel oil

H2 use in refining

LH2 storageH2 use in transport

© OECD/IEA 2013


Hydrogen supply costs in comparison t th f lto other fuels

H2 electrolysisH2 electrolysis

H2 l ith CCS

H2 natural gas

H2 natural gas with CCS

H2 biomass

H2 biomass with CCS

2050 USD 150/tCO2

H2 natural gas with CCS

H2 biomass

H2 biomass with CCS

y

BTL with CCS

Lignocellulosic ethanol

Lignocellulosic ethanol (CCS)

H2 coal

H2 coal with CCS

2050 USD 100/tCO2

2050 USD 50/tCO2H2 coal

H2 coal with CCS

H2 natural gas

2050USD 150/tCO2

CTL with CCS

GTL

GTL with CCS

BTL

BTL with CCS

2050 USD 0/tCO2

2050 USD 150/tCO2

2050 USD 100/tCO2

2050 USD 50/tCO2

2050USD 0/tCO2

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Diesel

CTL

2010 USD/bbl

2010

2050 USD 0/tCO2

2010

© OECD/IEA 2013

Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps

Global hydrogen supply in the 2DSy g pp y

5

3

4Natural gas

Electricity

2

3

EJ

Electricity

Biomass with CCS

0

1

2009 2020 2030 2040 2050

Biomass

N t C ti ti t fi i d h i l l t t i l d d

Hydrogen may become an attractive storage option for surplus electricity from variable renewables by 2050

Note: Captive generation at refineries and chemical plants not included.

© OECD/IEA 2013


Energy storage

First hydrogen balloon flight by Jacques Charles and Nicolas Robert in Paris on 1 December, !783.

© OECD/IEA 2013


The way electricity is producedh i 2DSchanges in a 2DS

40 00045 000 Other

Wind 19%100%

4DS

15 00020 00025 00030 00035 000

TWh

WindSolarHydroNuclearBiomass and wasteOil

67%

3%

13%

12%

36%

40%

60%

80%RenewablesNuclearFossil w CCSFossil w/o CCS

45 000 Other 100%

05 00010 000

2009 2020 2030 2040 2050

OilGasCoal

49%

0%

20%

2009 2050

20 00025 00030 00035 00040 000

TWh

WindSolarHydroNuclearBi d t

13%

19%

57%

40%

60%

80%RenewablesNuclearFossil w CCS

2DS

05 00010 00015 000

2009 2020 2030 2040 2050

Biomass and wasteOilGasCoal

67%

9%

14%

19%

0%

20%

40%

2009 2050

Fossil w/o CCS

© OECD/IEA 2013


…but also electricity consumption hchanges

Global LDV sales in the 2DS

150

200 FCEV

Electricity

Plug in hybrid diesel

Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles

llion

)

Global LDV sales in the 2DS

100

150 Plug-in hybrid diesel

Plug-in hybrid gasoline

Diesel hybrid

V s

ales

(mil

50

Gasoline hybrid

CNG/LPG

Dieselseng

er L

DV

02000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GasolinePas

s

© OECD/IEA 2013


Electricity generation Transport

Rail

EV/PHEV

Elec

Fossil

Nuclear

i bl blSystems

G2V

V2G

Heat

H2 FC

H2/SNG

Industry

Variable renewables

Dispatchablerenewablesthinking is

needed N ti DSMCHP

H2 FC

CNG vehiclesH2/SNG

y

Chloralkali electrolysis

Aluminium electrolysis

Electric arc furnace

neededElectricity storageP d t

Positive DSM

Negative DSMFossil

Renewables

Heat boiler

Buildings

Electric appliances

Pumped storage

CAES

Heat storage Negative DSM

Process steam

Electric water boilers

Heat pumps

Positive DSM

District heating

Fuel productionElectrolysis

Methanisation

Gas boilers

Desalination

District heat boilers

Fuel storageGas storage

H2 storage

g

© OECD/IEA 2013


Storage technologies are differentg g

1 year

Hi h t thou

rs

1 month

1 week

1 day

Hydrogen/gas storageCAES

Pumped storage

Lithium‐ion battery

Lead‐acid battery

High‐temperature batteries

age tim

e in h 1 day

1 hour

Superconductive energy storage

Double‐layer capacitor

Flywheel storage

Stora

1 minute

Source: Schegner, Vor‐ und Nachteile verschiedener Prinzipien der Speicherung elektrischer Energie, 2012

Superconductive energy storagey g

Installed capacity

1 second

© OECD/IEA 2013


Speicherung elektrischer Energie, 2012

Comparison of storage cycle costs: D il iDaily operation

1 GW for 8h (8 GWh), 1 cycle per day( ), y p y

Hydrogen

CAES(adiabatic)

> 10 years todaytoday

Pumped storage depending on location

> 10 years

Costs (Euro Cent/kWh)

p g

Source: VDE‐Study: Energy storage in power supply systems with a high share of renewable energy sources

© OECD/IEA 2013


Comparison of storage cycle costs: W kl iWeekly operation

500 MW for 200h (100 GWh), 2 cycles per month( ), y p

Hydrogen

CAES(adiabatic)

> 10 years today

( )

Pumped storage

> 10 years today

depending on location

Costs (Euro Cent/kWh)

depending on location

Source: VDE‐Study: Energy storage in power supply systems with a high share of renewable energy sources

© OECD/IEA 2013


Energy storage analysisgy g y

• Enhanced ETP‐TIMES model (long‐term; horizon up to 2050):– 4h‐load segments for a typical day (6 per day, four typical days per year)– Large‐scale storage: electricity, thermal, hydrogen– Considering other flexibility options for the electricity system:

• Flexible generation technologiesI l i f d d V2G• Inclusion of demand response, e.g. V2G

– Investment decisions in generation technologies and first estimate on storage needs; better capturing impact of operational aspects on capacity needs

• Dedicated TIMES model for operational analysis (short‐term; one year):– 1h‐timeslice resolution

Analysing operation of electricity system within a year for specific region with– Analysing operation of electricity system within a year for specific region with investment decisions for generation technologies from long‐term model

– Additional operational constraints (ramp‐up/‐down, min load, min up/down times)– Improved analysis on storage needs and role of competing flexibility options

© OECD/IEA 2013


Fuel supply Electricity plants (only) Transmission and distribution

l l l

Transport

Rail

Flexible generation Stronger grids

Demand sidemanagement

DSM

Variable renewables

Dispatchablerenewables

Fossil supply

Nuclear supply

Transmission and distribution

Fossil

Nuclear

Buildings

EV/PHEV

Elec. appliances

…

DSM

Fossil

Renewables

Public CHP & heat plants

Autoproducer CHP

Renewable supply

District heat grid

Industry

Elec. water boiler + storage

Heat pumps…

DSM

Fossil

Renewables

Autoproducer CHP and heat plants

Chloralkali electrolysis

Aluminium electrolysis

Electric arc furnace

Compressed air

Process heat

…

Electricity storagePumped storage

CAES

District heat storage

P h t t

Energy storage

Modelling of the electricity sector

Process heat storage

H2 electrolysis + storage H2 uses

Elec. DH boilersFlexible uses in conversion sector

© OECD/IEA 2013


Challenges of the H2 analysis on the l idsupply side

• Lack of complete information on captive (on‐site) generation at fi i d h i l l t t drefineries and chemical plants today

• Development of H2‐related technologies in terms of their technical and economic characteristics as well as scale

• H infrastructure: spatial and scale aspects only covered to some• H2 infrastructure: spatial and scale aspects only covered to some degree in global ETP‐TIMES model, possible approaches:– Expanding transport infrastructure model– Relying on existing national studiesRelying on existing national studies

• H2 as flexibility option for the electricity sector: – Assessing synergies with storage needs for end‐use consumption– Role of natural gas infrastructure (power‐to‐gas) g (p g )– Competing options for flexibility (flexible generation, other storage

technologies, demand response, larger balancing area)

© OECD/IEA 2013


Example: Variability of windp y25

Wh

Wind generation in Germany in 2011d

20

GW Wind generation in Germany in 2011 Wind generation 2011

Average annual wind generation

Wind as base load incl. storage losses

10

15

Transforming variable wind generation of 2011 in constant base load generation would require a

5

load generation would require a storage capacity of 3 TWh (largely based on long‐term H2 storage)

For comparison: around 0.040 TWhof pumped storage capacity today

00 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

HoursData source: EEX Transparency

Theoretical example, as other flexibility options, notably flexible generation, are not considered

© OECD/IEA 2013


REMME 20130709 ETP TIMES H2 Roadmap - Microsoft · 2019. 11. 27. · Microsoft PowerPoint - REMME...

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