PowerdownPowerdownOptions and Actions for Options and Actions for

a Post-Carbon Worlda Post-Carbon World

Richard Heinberg Richard Heinberg

History and History and BackgroundBackground

Energy SlavesEnergy Slaves

Every year, each U.S. citizen uses, on Every year, each U.S. citizen uses, on average:average:• 8,000 pounds of oil8,000 pounds of oil• 5,150 pounds of coal5,150 pounds of coal• 4,700 pounds of natural gas4,700 pounds of natural gas• 1/10th pound of uranium1/10th pound of uranium

If one “person-power” is 0.25 hp or 635 If one “person-power” is 0.25 hp or 635 Btu/hr, this is the equivalent of 300 Btu/hr, this is the equivalent of 300 persons working around the clock for persons working around the clock for each of us. each of us. (from Youngquist)(from Youngquist)

America in 1950America in 1950

World’s foremost oil producerWorld’s foremost oil producer World’s foremost oil exporterWorld’s foremost oil exporter World’s largest exporter of machine World’s largest exporter of machine

tools and manufactured goodstools and manufactured goods World’s foremost creditor nationWorld’s foremost creditor nation Self-sufficient in nearly all resourcesSelf-sufficient in nearly all resources

America in 2005America in 2005

World’s foremost oil importerWorld’s foremost oil importer World’s foremost debtor nationWorld’s foremost debtor nation World’s foremost importer of World’s foremost importer of

manufactured goods and non-manufactured goods and non-petroleum resourcespetroleum resources

Manufacturing jobs fleeing to other Manufacturing jobs fleeing to other countriescountries

Following its national oil Following its national oil production peak, the US was production peak, the US was

able to compensate by able to compensate by importing more oil from other importing more oil from other

nations. Following the nations. Following the global global oil oil production peak, we will not be production peak, we will not be

able to compensate by able to compensate by importing more oil from other importing more oil from other

planets.planets.

Four Ways to Predict PeakFour Ways to Predict Peak

1. Calculate the half-way point of 1. Calculate the half-way point of extraction, based upon estimates of extraction, based upon estimates of the ultimately recoverable resource, the ultimately recoverable resource, or URR (Hubbert, Campbell) or URR (Hubbert, Campbell)

Four Ways to Predict PeakFour Ways to Predict Peak

2. Count the number of years from 2. Count the number of years from peak of discovery to peak of peak of discovery to peak of extraction (Campbell)extraction (Campbell)

Global Oil DiscoveriesGlobal Oil Discoveries

ExxonMobil 2003

Exploration Cost & Value

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Mill

ion

dolla

rs

Cost Value

Four Ways to Predict PeakFour Ways to Predict Peak

3. Add up nation-by-nation peaks to 3. Add up nation-by-nation peaks to arrive at the date for global peak arrive at the date for global peak (Richard Duncan)(Richard Duncan)

Four Ways to Predict PeakFour Ways to Predict Peak

4. Compare new production capacity 4. Compare new production capacity needed in the next few years with needed in the next few years with the production capacity now in the production capacity now in development (Chris Skrebowski)development (Chris Skrebowski)

Chris Srebowski of Chris Srebowski of Petroleum ReviewPetroleum Review (London), in his 2004 study, “Oil Field (London), in his 2004 study, “Oil Field Megaprojects,” calculates that there Megaprojects,” calculates that there are 12.5 million barrels/day of new are 12.5 million barrels/day of new production capacity in development production capacity in development for the next five years. But 30 mb/d for the next five years. But 30 mb/d of new capacity will be needed to of new capacity will be needed to offset depletion. This suggests that offset depletion. This suggests that the likely all-time global oil the likely all-time global oil production peak will occur in 2007 or production peak will occur in 2007 or 2008 at the latest.2008 at the latest.

OIL AND GAS LIQUIDS2004 Scenario

US-48

Europe

Russia

Other

M.East

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Bill

ion

Bar

rels

a y

ear (

Gb/

a)

US-48 Europe Russia Other M.East Heavy etc. Deepwater Polar NGL

Energy AlternativesEnergy Alternatives

US energy consumption by US energy consumption by sourcesource

Source: US Energy Information Agency

Renewable energy as share of total Renewable energy as share of total US energy consumptionUS energy consumption

Source: US Energy Information Agency

Consequences of Consequences of Global Oil PeakGlobal Oil Peak

The EconomyThe Economy

Consequences of Consequences of Global Oil PeakGlobal Oil Peak

The EconomyThe Economy TransportationTransportation

Consequences of Consequences of Global Oil PeakGlobal Oil Peak

The EconomyThe Economy TransportationTransportation Food and AgricultureFood and Agriculture

Consequences of Consequences of Global Oil PeakGlobal Oil Peak

The EconomyThe Economy TransportationTransportation Food and AgricultureFood and Agriculture War and PeaceWar and Peace

GeopoliticsGeopolitics

Map of Proved Oil ReservesMap of Proved Oil Reserves

Oil Endowment HorseshoeOil Endowment Horseshoe

What Cheney knew in What Cheney knew in 19991999   In a speech to the International Petroleum In a speech to the International Petroleum Institute in London (late 1999), Dick Cheney, Institute in London (late 1999), Dick Cheney, then chairman of the world’s largestthen chairman of the world’s largest oil oil services services ccompany, Halliburton, presented the ompany, Halliburton, presented the picture of world oil supply and demand to picture of world oil supply and demand to industry insiders. “By some estimates,” Cheney industry insiders. “By some estimates,” Cheney stated, “there will be an average of two stated, “there will be an average of two percent annual growth in global oil demand percent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a three percent natural decline conservatively, a three percent natural decline in production from existing reserves.” in production from existing reserves.”  Cheney ended on an alarming note: “That  Cheney ended on an alarming note: “That means by 2010 we willmeans by 2010 we will need on the order of an need on the order of an additional fifty million barrels a day.” additional fifty million barrels a day.” This is more than six times Saudi Arabia’s This is more than six times Saudi Arabia’s

current output.current output.

Likely Forms of Resource Likely Forms of Resource WarsWars

Between rich consuming nations Between rich consuming nations and poorer producing nationsand poorer producing nations

Next Stop:Next Stop:

IranIran

Likely Forms of Resource Likely Forms of Resource WarsWars

Between rich consuming nations Between rich consuming nations and poorer producing nationsand poorer producing nations

Between consuming nationsBetween consuming nations

Economic WarfareEconomic Warfare

China--Yuan pegged to the dollar; China--Yuan pegged to the dollar; result: cheap Chinese imports, result: cheap Chinese imports, continuing loss of American jobs.continuing loss of American jobs.

Both China and US need MORE OIL!Both China and US need MORE OIL!

Likely Forms of Resource Likely Forms of Resource WarsWars

Between rich consuming nations Between rich consuming nations and poorer producing nationsand poorer producing nations

Between consuming nationsBetween consuming nations Civil wars within producing Civil wars within producing

nations for control of resourcesnations for control of resources

Likely Forms of Resource Likely Forms of Resource WarsWars

Between rich consuming nations Between rich consuming nations and poorer producing nationsand poorer producing nations

Between consuming nationsBetween consuming nations Civil wars within producing Civil wars within producing

nations for control of resourcesnations for control of resources Asymmetrical warfare between Asymmetrical warfare between

rich consuming nations and non-rich consuming nations and non-state entities in producing state entities in producing nationsnations

Watch out for thatWatch out for that

BRICBRIC

Sites of Coming Oil Sites of Coming Oil Wars?Wars?

Middle EastMiddle East

Sites of Coming Oil Sites of Coming Oil Wars?Wars?

Middle EastMiddle East West AfricaWest Africa

Sites of Coming Oil Sites of Coming Oil Wars?Wars?

Middle EastMiddle East West AfricaWest Africa South AmericaSouth America

Sites of Coming Oil Sites of Coming Oil Wars?Wars?

Middle EastMiddle East West AfricaWest Africa South AmericaSouth America Central AsiaCentral Asia

14 Characteristics of Fascism14 Characteristics of Fascism(Lawrence Britt)(Lawrence Britt)

1. Powerful and continuing expressions of 1. Powerful and continuing expressions of nationalism. nationalism.

2. Disdain for the importance of human 2. Disdain for the importance of human rights. rights.

3. Identification of enemies/scapegoats as a 3. Identification of enemies/scapegoats as a unifying cause. unifying cause.

4. The supremacy of the military/avid 4. The supremacy of the military/avid militarism. militarism.

5. Rampant sexism. 5. Rampant sexism.

6. A controlled mass media. 6. A controlled mass media.

14 Characteristics of Fascism14 Characteristics of Fascism

7. Obsession with national security.7. Obsession with national security.

8. Religion and ruling elite tied together. 8. Religion and ruling elite tied together.

9. Power of corporations protected.9. Power of corporations protected.

10. Power of labor suppressed or eliminated. 10. Power of labor suppressed or eliminated.

11. Disdain and suppression of intellectuals 11. Disdain and suppression of intellectuals and the arts.and the arts.

12. Obsession with crime and punishment. 12. Obsession with crime and punishment.

13. Rampant cronyism and corruption.13. Rampant cronyism and corruption.

14. Fraudulent elections. 14. Fraudulent elections.

What to do?What to do?

Resist war and repressionResist war and repression Focus on local economy and Focus on local economy and

governancegovernance Make international alliancesMake international alliances Support media alternativesSupport media alternatives

The Uppsala ProtocolThe Uppsala Protocol

1. No country shall produce oil at above 1. No country shall produce oil at above its current Depletion Rate, such being its current Depletion Rate, such being defined as annual production as a defined as annual production as a percentage of the estimated amount percentage of the estimated amount left to produce;left to produce;

2. Each importing country shall reduce 2. Each importing country shall reduce its imports to match the current World its imports to match the current World Depletion Rate.Depletion Rate.

Proposed by Uppsala Hydrocarbon Proposed by Uppsala Hydrocarbon Depletion Study Group, Uppsala Depletion Study Group, Uppsala University, SwedenUniversity, Sweden  

There is no single “magic elixir.”There is no single “magic elixir.”

However, there are possible However, there are possible strategies:strategies:

Aim for maximum efficiencyAim for maximum efficiency Localize and decentralizeLocalize and decentralize Use alternatives Use alternatives nownow Use lessUse less Raise awareness: talk about the Raise awareness: talk about the

issue!issue!

PrioritiesPriorities

Ensure local food securityEnsure local food security Ensure local water securityEnsure local water security Reduce your need for transportationReduce your need for transportation Support your local economySupport your local economy Foster local manufacturing of Foster local manufacturing of

essential goodsessential goods Plan for long-term emergency Plan for long-term emergency

servicesservices

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heinberg@museletter.comheinberg@museletter.com