PoliticsDA - Fellows

8/14/2019 PoliticsDA - Fellows

1/69

Kumar, Moliver, Beardon Kentucky Fellows 0

Obama Good DAObama Good DA ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Party Time: 1NC .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Party Time: 1NC .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Overview:................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Obama Wins: Wall ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Obama Wins: Wall ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................AT: Uniqueness O/W Link ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Links ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Plan Popular Link ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ....Solar Power Popular Link .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Geothermal Power Popular Link .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................Brazilian Ethanol Link ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Nuclear Power Unpopular Link ...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................Do Nothing Congress Link .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Oil Lobbies Link ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................McCain Likes Alternative Energy ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Nuclear Power Popular .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................McCain supports Nuke Power ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Internal Links ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Coattails Internal .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Bush Matters Internal ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Bush Matters Internal ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Spending Internal ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Voting Blocks ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Latinos Key .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Independents key .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. ......Independents outweigh Hard Right .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................Everyone is key- Goldilocks. .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Women/Seniors .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Urban Workers .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Religious Right = Dead ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Battleground States Internal ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Moderates key ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Alternative Energy = Election Issue ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... .Climate/Environment key 2008 Election Issue .......................................................................................................................................................................................................Iran Strikes Bad ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Sweeter 1NC Impact ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Prolif ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Prolif ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Turkish Relations ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Oil Spikes ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Other Impacts ..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Tax Cuts Bad 1NC ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Tax Cuts Bad 1NC ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Yucca Mountain Bad 1NC .....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................CTBT Good 1NC ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................CTBT GoodTerrorism .........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................CTBT GoodIMS .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................CTBT GoodIMS.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................CTBT GoodIndo-Pak war ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................CTBT GoodIndo-Pak..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Aff Impact Turns ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Iran Strikes Good ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Iran Strikes Good ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Iran Strikes Good ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................AT: Oil Scenario ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Tax Cuts Good ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ...Tax Cuts Good ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ...Tax Cuts Good ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ...Tax Cuts Good: Evidence comparison ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................Currency Dump Turn ..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Yucca Mountain Good ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Yucca Mountain Good ............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................Senate Elections DA: Uniqueness: Democrats win ................................................................................................................................................................................................Senate Elections DA: Uniqueness: Democrats win ................................................................................................................................................................................................Aff: Uniqueness Overwhelms the Link ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................Aff: Uniqueness Overwhelms the Link ..................................................................................................................................................................................................................Aff: Elections Improbable ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

Non Unique: McCain wins .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. ....

Page 1


2/69


Party Time: 1NC[ ] Uniqueness: Obamas winning now he controls swing states such as Florida, Ohio and PennsylvaniaQuinnipiac University Poll.: June 18, 2008 OBAMA LEADS McCAIN IN FLORIDA, OHIO, PENNSYLVANIA, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY SWING STATEPOLL FINDS; CLINTON ON THE TICKET DOES NOT HELP DEMS. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1187=

With strong support from women, blacks and younger voters, Illinois Sen. BarackObama, the apparent Democratic presidential contender, leads ArizoSen. John McCain, expected to be the Republican candidate, among likely voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to simultaneousQuinnipiac University Swing Statepolls released today.This is the first time Sen. Obama has led in all three states. No one has been elected President since 1960 without taking two of these thr

largest swing states in the Electoral College. Results from the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University polls show:Florida: Obama edges McCain 47 - 43 percent;Ohio: Obama tops McCain 48 - 42 percent;Pennsylvania: Obama leads McCain 52 - 40 percent.In the three states, Obama leads McCain 10 to 23 percentage points among women, while men are too close to call. The Democrat trails among whvoters in Florida and Ohio, but gets more than 90 percent of black voters in each state. He also has double-digit leads among young votein each state."Finally getting Sen. Hillary Clinton out of the race has been a big boost for Sen. Barack Obama. He now leads in all three of the major swing states, althouhis margins in Florida and Ohio are small," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute."Sen. Obama is certainly not out of the woods, but these results are a Good indication that he enters the summer slightly ahead in the racebe the next president ."

Page 2


3/69


Party Time: 1NC

[ ] McCains support for green technologies is crucial to his ability to reach out to moderates and

independents and win the electionHorsley May 13th

byScott HorsleyMay 13th 2008. McCain Targets Independents with 'Green' Effort. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=90411556

But for the moment, McCain's tone is very different as he tries to reach out to independent and moderate voters at campaigns stops in thePacific Northwest. McCain visited a watershed center outside Seattle on Tuesday, where he stressed his commitment to environmental protection.

McCain even planned a nature walkaround Washington's Cedar River Reservoir, with reporters and photographers in tow, and held a roundtable discussion with agroup of Washington state conservation advocates. Sally Jewell heads the Seattle-based outdoor gear company REI, a cooperative with 3.5 million active members. "Wehave members that span from the far right to the far left of the political spectrum," she said. "But I think the one thing they all appreciate ishealthy environment." By wrapping hIMSelf in the fleece vest of environmentalism, McCain hopes to reach out to that constituency. Herepeated his pledge to combat greenhouse gases by limiting the amount of these gases that companies can emit and encouraging those whemit less to sell their permits to others. This "cap-and-trade" system is similar to plans proposed by Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and NewYork Sen. Hillary Clinton albeit with less stringent limits on carbon pollution. McCain's Green Campaign Aimed at Moderate Voters "McCasimply cannot win in November if he can't consolidate the center and win the swing independents who determine every presidentialelection," said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political analyst. "His task is tough enough because of President Bush's unpopularity, the unpopularity of the Iraq wand the tanking of the economy. If he gets too identified with the right wing of his own party, he's going to alienate those swing independents, and he'll lose the election."

McCain is closely identified with President Bush in his support for the Iraq war and an economic policy built on tax cuts. But Sabato sayso far, that has not been the drag on McCain's campaign that it might be. "Right now, he has that maverick image, and he's running 20 to 25 poin

better than the Republican brand," Sabato added. "The Democrats' job is to make sure that doesn't continue. McCain's job is to make sure that it does."

The environment is one area where McCain can put some daylight between his views and President Bush's. Speaking on Monday in Portland, O

McCain subtly criticized the president for not doing more to combat global warming. "I will not permit eight long years to pass without serious action onserious challenges," he said. McCain also went out of his way to praise Oregon's Democratic governor and to promise more bipartisancooperation if he is elected president. "We need to draw on the best ideas of both parties and on all the resources a free market can provide," he said.

[ ] McCain will go to war with IranEdwards and Kane 1-28-2008 [David, Muriel, Buchanan: McCain win would mean war with Iran,http://rawstory.com/news/2007/Buchanan_McCain_win_means_war_with_0128.html]

"More wars" could prove to be the oddest of all presidential campaign slogans. Especially if it works. Presidential candidate John McCain shockedobservers on Sunday when he told a crowd of supporters, "There's going to be other wars. ... I'm sorry to tell you, there's going to be other wars. We will never surrender bu

there will be other wars." MSNBC's Joe Scarborough asked old-line conservative Pat Buchanan about McCain's remarks, saying, " He talked about promising thatmore wars were coming. ... Is he so desperate to get off the economic issue?" Pat Buchanan replied that McCain never used the word "promise" but simsaid there would be more wars, and that from McCain's point of view, "that is straight talk. ... You get John McCain in the White House, and I do believe wwill be at war with Iran." "That's one of the things that makes me very nervous about him," Buchanan went on . "There's no doubt John McCain is going t

be a war president. ... His whole career is wrapped up in the military, national security. He's in Putin's face, he's threatening the Iranians,we're going to be in Iraq a hundred years." "So when he says more war," Scarborough commented, "he is promising you, if he gets in the White House, we'll notonly be fighting this war but starting new wars. Is that what conservative Republicans want? "I don't say he's starting them," Buchanan answered. "He expects morewars. ... I think he's talking straight, because if you take a look at the McCain foreign policy, he is in everybody's face. Did you see Thad Cochran's comment whenhe endorsed Romney? He said, look, John McCain is a bellicose, red-faced, angry guy, who constantly explodes."

[ ] US-Iran War leads to global conflagrationHirsch 2006 [Professor of physics @ University of California San Diego. Jorge Hirsch, America's nuclear ticking bomb, San Diego Union Tribune, January 3, 2006, phttp://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20060103/news_mz1e3hirsch.html]

If only conventional bombs are used in an unprovoked U.S. or Israeli aerial attackagainst Iran's facilities, Iran is likely to retaliate with missilesagainst coalition forces in Iraq and against Israel, as well as possibly a ground invasion of southern Iraq, that the 150,000 U.S. troops in Iraq would not be able withstand. Iranian missiles could potentially contain chemical warheads, and it certainly would be impossible to rule out such possibility.Iran has signed and ratified the Chemical Weapons Convention (in 1993 and 1997 respectively), however it is still likely to have supplies, as determined by the U.S

State Department in August 2005. Early use by the United States of low-yield nuclear bombs with better bunker-busting ability than conventional bombstargeting Iranian nuclear, chemical and missile installations would be consistent with the new U.S. nuclear weapons doctrine and could be argued to benecessary to protect the lives of 150,000 U.S. soldiers in Iraq and of Israeli citizens. It would also send a clear message to Iran that any response would be answered by a far

more devastating nuclear attack, thus potentially saving both American and Iranian lives. However, the nuclear threshold is a line of no return. Once theUnited States uses a nuclear weapon against a nonnuclear adversary, the 182 countries that are signatories of the Nuclear Non-ProliferatiTreaty will rightly feel at risk, and many of them will rush to develop their own nuclear deterrent while they can. A new world with manymore nuclear countries, and a high risk of any regional conflict exploding into all-out nuclear war, will be the consequence. The scientificcommunity (which created nuclear weapons) is alarmed over the new U.S. nuclear weapons policies. A petition to reverse these policies launched by physicists at theUniversity of California San Diego has gathered over 1,500 physicists' signatures including eight Nobel laureates and many prominent members of the U.S. scientificestablishment (http://physics.ucsd.edu/petition/). Scientists object strongly to the concept of WMD, that lumps together nuclear weapons with other "weapons of mass

destruction" and blurs the sharp line that separates immensely more destructive nuclear weapons from all other weapons. An escalating nuclear war could lead tothe destruction of civilization. There is no fundamental difference between small nuclear bombs and large ones, nor between nuclear bombs targeting undergroundinstallations versus those targeting cities or armies.

Page 3
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=2788801http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=2788801http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=2788801http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=2788801


4/69


Overview:Disad outweighs case If McCain can reach out to the moderates through the plan, hell attack Iran early i

his presidency. A US-Iran war has massive ramifications

Magnitude: Only Middle Eastern war will lead to nuclear war instability avoids usual fears of reprisal, an

would lead to extinctionNassar 2

Bahig Nassar, Arab Co-ordinating Centre of Non-Governmental Organizations, and Afro-Asian Peoples Solidary Organization, 11/25/02, keynote paper for CordobaDialogue on Peace and Human Rights in Europe and the Middle East, http://www.inesglobal.org/BahigNassar.htm

Wars in the Middle East are of a new type. Formerly, the possession of nuclear weapons by the United States and the Soviet Union hadprevented them, under the balance of the nuclear terror, from launching war against each other. In the Middle East, the possession ofnuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction leads to military clashes and wars. Instead of eliminating weapons of mass destruction, theUnited States and Israel are using military force to prevent others from acquiring them, while they insist on maintaining their own weapons to pose deadly threats to other

nations. But the production, proliferation and threat oruse of weapons of mass destruction (nuclear chemical and biological) are among the major global problemwhich could lead, if left unchecked, to the extinction of life on earth. Different from the limited character of former wars, the current warsthe Middle East manipulate global problems and escalate their dangers instead of solving them.

Timeframe: McCain would attack Iran immediately to rally his supporters. The plans impacts and solvency

are massively long term. [Explain]

And, Timeframes important - quick economic collapse means

1. Disad happens first, and disrupts solvency _______________________

2. Controls probability intervening actors and unpredictable consequences are more like

when theres a longer timeframe

Turns case -

Page 4


5/69


Obama Wins: Wall1. 1NC Uniqueness outweighs it analyzes poll results from a couple days ago which show that McCain is

behind in key battleground states. Prefer statistical evidence only true way to determine what people want

2. Prefer my evidence the Quinnipac university poll is extremely accurate. Prefer my methodology

Quinnipiac University Poll. No Date. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xmlTimely and accurate polls Frequently cited by journalists, public officials and researchers, the independent Quinnipiac University Poll regularsurveys residents in Connecticut, Florida, New York, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania and nationwide about political races, state andnational elections, and issues of public concern, such as schools, taxes, transportation, municipal services and the environment. Known for its exactnessand thoroughness, the Quinnipiac poll was selected a "winner" by the New York Post for the most accurate prediction on the Schumer-D'Amato Senatrace in 1998, and results are featured regularly in The New York Times, The Washington Post, USA Today, The Wall Street Journal and onnational network news broadcasts. Student interviewers use a computer-assisted telephone interviewing system to collect data fromstatewide and national residents. For a typical public opinion survey, a randomly selected sample of about 1,000 registered voters age 18 and oveis interviewed over five or six days. The polls are conducted at the Polling Institute on West Woods Road, close to the main campus

3. Models: Democrat will win the 2008 Presidential Election because Political Science Professor Alan

Lichtmans Keys Model indicates six out of the 13 presidential keys have turned against the incumbent

partyPage 07Susan Page, USA TODAY, May 3, 2007 http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/2007-05-02-gop-landscape_N.htm

In one of the best-known formulas to predict presidential elections, devised in 1981 by historian Allan Lichtman, six of 13 "keys" haveturned against the GOP, enough to forecast defeat of the party that holds the White House.The formula -- which takes into account economic data, midterm election results, foreign policy developments, domestic unrest andcandidates' charisma-- has accurately forecast the popular-vote winner in the past six elections.Applied to previous contests, it points to the winner in every election back to 1860, according to Lichtman, a professor at AmericanUniversity.He and other analysts say the political landscapethe year before a presidential election hasn't so overwhelmingly favored one party over the other a generation or more, at least since Reagan won a landslide re-election over Democrat Walter Mondale in 1984.

Democrats aren't assured a victory in 2008, but they almost certainly face an easier task ahead than their Republican opponents.

And this model has successfully predicted the winner of every presidential electionLichtman 5Allan Lichtman, Professor of History at The American University and Visiting Scholar at the California Institute of Technology, The Keys to the White House: Forecast fo2008, June 12-15, 2005, p. http://www.forecastingprinciples.com/Political/PDFs/ISF2005/Lichtman_Keys.pdf

The Keys to the White House are a historically-based prediction system that retrospectively account for the popular-vote winners of everAmerican presidential election from 1860 to 1980 and prospectively forecast well ahead of time the winners of every presidential electiofrom 1984 through 2004. The Keys give specificity to the theory that that presidential election results turn primarily on the performance of the party controlling theWhite House and that politics as usual by the challenging candidate will have no impact on results. The Keys include no polling data and consider a muchwider range of performance indicators than economic concerns. Already, the Keys are lining up for 2008, demonstrating brighter prospecfor Democrats to recapture the White House than the conventional wisdom would have us believe.

4. Fundz - Obama will financially overwhelm McCains ability to win through TV adsPreston June 24, 2008Mark Preston CNN Political Editor. Updated June 24, 2008. http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/24/preston.obama.ads/index.html

Barack Obama's decision to forgo public financing for his presidential campaign provides him with the tools needed to implement a"Shock and Awe" television ad strategy designed to paralyze John McCain's campaign, an expert on political TV advertising said in an

interview with CNN.The better-funded Obama is likely to force McCain to spend money on TV ads in Arkansas, Georgia and NorthCarolina, said Evan Tracey, CNN's consultant on political television advertising. At this point in the campaign , these are states that CNN projects McCain haan edge over the Illinois Democrat, but by no means are these states safely in the Arizona Republican's column. Obamais expected to raithree or four times the $85 million he would have received from the public financing system, providing him with a huge financialadvantage overMcCain, who has opted to take the public funds.Watch Tracey discuss Obama's advantage Tracey, chief operating officer ofTNSMI/Campaign Media Analysis Group, notes that Obama used a similar advertising strategy against Hillary Clinton in the battle for theDemocratic presidential nomination. Obama spent $10 million in Pennsylvania on TV ads -- a state Clinton was heavily favored to win adid so by 10 percentage points. Obama's decision to pour millions of dollars into Pennsylvania forced Clinton to spend more money in thstate than she would have wanted to in order to secure a convincing victory. But it came at a cost, because she had less money to dedicateto the remaining primary contests including North Carolina and Indiana. She lost North Carolina by a wide margin and won Indiana only by two percenta

points. Now, as we turn our full attention to the McCain-Obama match up, Tracey explains how the two candidates plan to use television advertising to help win theirrespective primaries, and predicts their general election strategies heading into November.

Page 5
http://www.usatoday.com/community/tags/reporter.aspx?id=602http://www.usatoday.com/community/tags/reporter.aspx?id=602http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/candidates/barack.obama.htmlhttp://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/candidates/barack.obama.htmlhttp://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/candidates/john.mccain.htmlhttp://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/candidates/john.mccain.htmlhttp://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/candidates/john.mccain.htmlhttp://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/24/preston.obama.ads/index.html#cnnSTCVideohttp://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/24/preston.obama.ads/index.html#cnnSTCVideohttp://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/candidates/hillary.clinton.htmlhttp://www.usatoday.com/community/tags/reporter.aspx?id=602http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/candidates/barack.obama.htmlhttp://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/candidates/john.mccain.htmlhttp://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/24/preston.obama.ads/index.html#cnnSTCVideohttp://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/candidates/hillary.clinton.html


6/69


Obama Wins: Wall5. Constituent specific Independents are divided.Schneider June 18thBill Schneider. Wed June 18, 2008CNN Senior Political Analyst.http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/18/schneider.independents . Analysis: Independents split overMcCain, Obama

Independents hold the key to victory, and both presidential contenders -- Republican Sen. John McCainand Democratic Sen. BarackObama-- knoit."I don't know if you would call it maverick, but I certainly have issues that I think can attract independents," McCain told supporters earlier this

year, while Obama said last month: "As important as it is for Democrats to be unified, it's also important that we reach out to independents."Who's got the edge with independents? Two new polls gave the same answer -- neither candidate.The Washington Post-ABC News poll founthat independents are evenly divided, with 44 percent favoring Obama and 43 percent favoring McCain. The ABC/Post poll, conducted June 12-1had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

6. Game over: Presidential historians say that McCain will lose since hes tied to Bush policesKuhn 6/15David Paul KuhnPolitico.comPosted: 2008-06-15. http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=8BE81940-3048-5C12-006952400AA347AF

One week into the general election, the polls show a dead heat. But many presidential scholars doubt that John McCain stands much of a chanceany.

Historians belonging to both parties offered a litany of historical comparisons that give little hope to the Republican. Several saw BarackObamas prospects as the most promising for a Democrat since Roosevelt trounced Hoover in 1932.

This should be an overwhelming Democratic victory, said Allan Lichtman, an American University presidential historian who ran in a MarylandDemocratic senatorial primary in 2006. Lichtman, whose forecasting model has correctly predicted the last six presidential popular vote winners, predicts that this year,

Republicans face what have always been insurmountable historical odds.His system gives McCain a score on par with Jimmy Cartersin 1980. McCain shouldnt win it, said presidential historian Joan Hoff, a professor at Montana State University and former president of the Center for

Study of the Presidency. She compared McCains prospects to those of Hubert Humphrey, whose 1968 loss to Richard Nixon resulted in large part from the unpopularity of

sitting Democratic president Lyndon Johnson. It is one of the worst political environments for the party in power since World War II, added AlanAbramowitz, a professor of public opinion and the presidency at Emory University. His forecasting model which factors in gross domestic product,whether a party has completed two terms in the White House and net presidential approval rating gives McCain about the same odds aAdlai Stevenson in 1952 and Carter in 1980 both of whom were handily defeated in elections that returned the presidency to thepreviously out-of-power party. It would be a pretty stunning upset if McCain won, Abramowitz said. Whats more, Republicans have held thepresidency for all but 12 years since the South became solidly Republican in the realignment of 1968 which is among the longest runs with oneparty dominating in American history. These things go in cycles, said presidential historian Robert Dallek, a professor at the University of California at Los AngelThe public gets tired of one approach to politics. There is always a measure of optimism in this country, so they turn to the other party.But the biggest obstacle in McCains path may be running in the same party as the most unpopular president America has had since at leathe advent of modern polling.Only Harry Truman and Nixon both of whom were dogged by unpopular wars abroad and politicalscandals at home have been nearly as unpopular in their last year in office, and both mens parties lost the presidency in the following election.

Though the Democratic-controlled Congress is nearly as unpopular as the president, Lichtman says the Democrats 2006 midterm winsresemble the midterm congressional gains of the out-party in 1966 and 1974, which both preceded a retaking of the White House two yealater. One of the few bright spots historians noted is that the public generally does not view McCain as a traditional Republican. And, as Republicans frequently point ouMcCain is not an incumbent. Open-seat elections are somewhat different, so the referendum aspect is somewhat muted, said James Campbell, a

professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo who specializes in campaigns and elections. McCain would be in much better shape if Bushsapproval rating were at 45 to 50 percent, Campbell continued. But the history is that in-party candidates are not penalized or rewarded to thsame degree as incumbents. Campbell still casts McCain as the underdog. But he said McCain might have more appeal to moderates than Obama if the electoratedecides McCain is center right while Obama is far left. Democrats have been repeatedly undone when their nominee was viewed as too liberal,and even as polls show a rise in the number of self-identified Democrats, there has been no corresponding increase in the number of self-identified liberals. Campbell also notes that McCain may benefit from the Democratic divisions that were on display in the primary, as Republicans did in 1968, whenDemocratic divisions over the war in Vietnam dogged Humphrey and helped hand Nixon victory. Still, many historians remain extremely skeptical about McCains prospec

I cant think of an upset where the underdog faced quite the odds that McCain faces in this election, said Sidney Milkis, a professor of presidentpolitics at the University of Virginia. Even "Truman didnt face as difficult a political context as McCain.

7. National Polls - Obama has a sizeable popular vote lead over McCainLos Angeles Times, June 25, 2008, p. http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-poll25-2008jun25,0,5763707.storyWASHINGTON -- Buoyed by enthusiasm among Democrats and public concern over the economy, Sen. BarackObama (D-Ill.) has captured a sizable lead overSen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) at the opening of the general election campaign for president, the Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll has found.In a two-man race between the major party candidates, registered voters chose Obama over McCain by 49% to 37% in the national poll conducted lastweekend. On a four-man ballot including independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, voters chose Obama over McCain by an even largermargin, 48% to 33%.

Page 6
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/18/schneider.independentshttp://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/18/schneider.independentshttp://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/18/schneider.independentshttp://politico.com/http://politico.com/http://politico.com/http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/18/schneider.independentshttp://politico.com/


7/69


AT: Uniqueness O/W Link

1. No offense that means there is only a risk that the DA happens if the plan passes they cant win a

unique link turn meaning you err NEG based on offense/defense.

2. Big mistake All our evidence says that McCain will lose because hes tied to unpopular Bush policies.

Plan solves that internal link meaning the plan can overcome the negative perceptions of McCain. This acts

as a link booster for our coattails links since theyve conceded our warrants.

3. Prefer internal link specificity: None of our evidence rules out a chance of a McCain victory, our internal

is specific to environmental popular policies can help McCain swing the independents. The Uniqueness for

this goes our way since independents are slightly in favor of ObamaBritt June 5Russ Britt, MarketWatch. Last Update: 5:39 PM ET Jun 5, 2008. http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story.asp?StoryId={CE5B4F19-5B24-466F-B30A-0B8466F97AEA}

"They are regular voters, they are frequent voters," Ciruli said. "They care about the economy and the war, but they also respect experienceMcCain has an uphill climb in that Obama has a head start on enlisting new voters. At this year's Colorado caucuses, it was estimated that Republican

participants had tripled, but Democrats had grown ten-fold. More than ever, the big electorate battleground will be over independent voters, Ciruli says."This election is going to be fought more in the middle - for those unaffiliated voters who are non-partisan," he said.

4. It will be a close election: polls proveMooney 6/1CNN Ticker Producer Alexander Mooney july 1, 2008. http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/07/01/new-cnn-poll-obama-mccain-in-a-statistical-dead-heat/

With the dust having finally settled after the prolonged Democratic presidential primary, a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll shows Sens. JohnMcCain and Barack Obama locked in a statistical dead heat in the race for the White House.

Page 7
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/tag/cnn-ticker-producer-alexander-mooney/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/tag/cnn-ticker-producer-alexander-mooney/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/tag/cnn-ticker-producer-alexander-mooney/


8/69


Links

Page 8


9/69


Plan Popular LinkAlternative Energies massively popular

Oil Change International, Blocking Alternatives, downloaded 6-23-2008, http://priceofoil.org/thepriceofoil/clean-energy

These energy subsidies are completely out of step with a nation that now broadly accepts the need to end our collective oil addiction.According to Democratic pollsters Greenberg, Quinlan and Rosner,the public overwhelmingly supports the development of alternativeenergy, higher mileage standards, hybrids, and incentives to produce more energy-efficient appliances.

Americans overwhelmingly support alternative energyPodesta 7John Podesta, Daniel J. Weiss, Laura Nichols, Americans Urgently Want Action on Energy Independence and Global Warming, April 18,2007, Center for American Progress, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/04/environment_poll.html

Americans want freedom and self sufficiency from our energy policies; Americans, in the tradition of our can-do spirit, believe weshould be leading the world in clean, alternative energy. If the political will exists, they believe we can do anything; Americans wantaccountability. They want their leaders to show they will do the right thing, put money to Good use and act accordingly themselves; Thesee clean energy as a path to economic growth and new jobs; Democrats, Independents, and Republicans believe the evidence of globalwarming is now clear and only strengthens the case for immediate action on energy independence; and, Americans overwhelminglysupport vigorous standards for clean alternative energy technologies and better mileage. They also support a cap and reduction on global

warming pollution.

Alternative energies popular with the publicTeixeira 7Ruy Teixeira, March 5, 2007, What the Public Really Wants on Energy and the Environment, Center for American Progress,http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/03/wtprw.html

But attitudes are more positive toward proposals that would actively promote energy conservation and the development of alternativeenergy sources. In the February, 2006 Pew poll where 85 percent agreed that America was addicted to oil, the public strongly supportethe following proposals to address Americas energy supply: requiring better auto fuel efficiency (86 percent for/12 percent against);increasing federal funding for research on wind, solar and hydrogen technology (82/14); tax cuts for companies to develop thesealternative energy sources (78/18); spending more on subway, rail and bus systems (68/27); and increasing federal funding for research o

ethanol (67/22).

Public has strong support for alternative energy, my evidence is comparativeTeixeira 7Ruy Teixeira, March 5, 2007, What the Public Really Wants on Energy and the Environment, Center for American Progress,http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2007/03/wtprw.html

The publics especially strong interest in developing alternative energy sources is well-illustrated by a finding in a July, 2006 Los Angeles Timpoll. TheLAT poll asked respondents to choose the best way among a number of options for reducing U.S. reliance on foreign oil. Morethan half the respondents (52 percent) chose government investment in alternative energy sources, way ahead of the next most popularoption, relaxing environmental standards for oil and gas drilling (20 percent), which was followed by requiring stricter mileage standards for cars (eight

percent) and more nuclear power plants (six percent

Page 9
http://priceofoil.org/thepriceofoil/clean-energy/http://www.greenbergresearch.com/articles/1726/2170_CleanEnergy0806.pdfhttp://www.greenbergresearch.com/articles/1726/2170_CleanEnergy0806.pdfhttp://www.greenbergresearch.com/articles/1726/2170_CleanEnergy0806.pdfhttp://priceofoil.org/thepriceofoil/clean-energy/http://www.greenbergresearch.com/articles/1726/2170_CleanEnergy0806.pdfhttp://www.greenbergresearch.com/articles/1726/2170_CleanEnergy0806.pdf


10/69


Solar Power Popular LinkSolar power popular with the publicRevkin 7Andrew C. Revkin and Matthew L. Wald, July 16, 2007, Solar Power Wins Enthusiasts but Not Money, The New York Times, Business,http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/16/business/16solar.html

It is no wonder solar power has captured the public imagination. Panels that convert sunlight to electricity are winning supporters around

the world from Europe, where gleaming arrays cloak skyscrapers and farmers fields, to Wall Street, where stock offerings for panelmakers have had a great ride, to California, where Gov. Arnold SchwarzeneggersMillion Solar Roofs initiative is promoted as buildina homegrown industry and fightingglobal warming.

Solar power politically and publically popularHeffernan 8Olive Heffernan, A Bright Future for Solar Power, Natural Reports on Climate Change, Natural Environment Research Council, March 52008, http://www.nature.com/climate/2008/0803/full/climate.2008.20.htmlYet until now, political support for this budding energy source has not matched the public's enthusiasm. If the bill to boost renewableenergy gets the go-ahead from the US administration, it could remove one of the remaining impediments to using the sun as a significantsource of energy, bringing Kurzweil's predictions that much closer to reality.

The public supports solar energyCoolidge 8Coolidge, July 1, 2008, Georgina, Reuters, Environmental News Networkhttp://www.enn.com/energy/article/37536The government freeze on new applications showed a "big disconnect" from public support forsolar power, Resch (Rhone Resch,president of the Solar Energy Industry Association) said. In the same call, Robert Fishman, chief executive of privately held Ausra, a solathermal power developer headquartered in Palo Alto, California, said a recent poll showed 94 percent of Americans favor solar powerdevelopment to help easepollution and cut energy costs.

Page 10
http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/s/arnold_schwarzenegger/index.html?inline=nyt-perhttp://www.environmentcalifornia.org/energy/million-solar-roofshttp://www.environmentcalifornia.org/energy/million-solar-roofshttp://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/science/topics/globalwarming/index.html?inline=nyt-classifierhttp://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/science/topics/globalwarming/index.html?inline=nyt-classifierhttp://www.enn.com/energy/article/37536http://www.enn.com/energy/article/37536http://www.enn.com/energy/article/37536http://www.enn.com/energy/article/37536http://www.enn.com/energy/article/37536http://www.enn.com/energy/article/37536http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/s/arnold_schwarzenegger/index.html?inline=nyt-perhttp://www.environmentcalifornia.org/energy/million-solar-roofshttp://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/science/topics/globalwarming/index.html?inline=nyt-classifierhttp://www.enn.com/energy/article/37536http://www.enn.com/energy/article/37536http://www.enn.com/energy/article/37536


11/69


Geothermal Power Popular Link

Geothermal energy is popular with the publicDriscoll 7Driscoll, 2007, Emily V. Geothermal wells increase in popularity as a fossil fuel alternativeOctober 19th,http://scienceline.org/2007/10/19/env-driscoll-geothermal/The popularity of geothermal heating and cooling has increased rapidlyeven President George W. Bush has a geothermal system at hisranch in Crawford, Texas. In addition, experts are looking towards the technology as a way to provide clean electricity. Although geothermal energy makup just half of one percent of the total energy consumption in the United States, demand jumped 13 percent from 2001 to 2005, according to the federalDepartment of Energy.In January, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology released the most extensive report on the geothermal power generation in thirty years.

NewYork is no exception to the trend.The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA), which gives money and technical help tobuilders who use alternative energy sources, reports that63 geothermal projects have been completed since its aid program began in 1999. Forty-sixmore projects are in the works. The number of applications and installments continues to go up, said Gregory Lampman, a project manager with state authority

Page 11


12/69


Brazilian Ethanol LinkThe plans a flip flop for McCainStyles 08Geoffrey Styles is Managing Director of GSW Strategy Group, LLC, an energy and environmental strategy consulting firm. Since 2002 he has served as a consultant, adviand communicator, helping organizations and executives address systems-level policy. His industry experience includes leadership roles at Texaco Inc. in strategydevelopment and scenario planning, alliance management, and energy trading, at both the corporate center and with business units involved in global oil refining &marketing, transportation, and alternative energy. He has an MBA and a BS in Chemical Engineering. Friday, January 18, 2008http://energyoutlook.blogspot.com/2008/01/candidates-energy-mccain.html

Ethanol is one aspect of energy policy on which McCain differs with many of his rivals. You have to admire someone who campaignsseriously in Iowa on a platform ofending subsidies for corn ethanol, and in Michigan on higher fuel economy standards. Still, whenconfronted with thecharge that he has "flip-flopped" on this issue--that hewas entirely against ethanol previously but now only opposes subsidies for it--his response wassomewhat less convincing than it might have been. In any case, his aversion to subsidies is apparently not confined to ethanol, extending beyond energto agricultural commodities, consistent with his overall emphasis on free markets and fiscal conservatism. He expects alternative energy advance on a "level playing field"--leveled further by monetizing the climate externality via market-based mechanisms.

And that kills his popularity

Wall Street Journal, 4-1-2002These sellouts of principle can be excused, if you have the right tastes, by crass politics. Vetoing the campaign finance bill would be throwing down tgauntlet to John McCain, who might decide to play Ross Perot in the 2004 campaign. The steel decision is aimed at a few congressional seats in Pennsylvania and West

Virginia deemed crucial to continued Republican control of the House in this falls elections. I tend to doubt this rationale even on political grounds. Public reversals o

principle, even if less dramatic than renouncing a read my lips pledge, erode a presidents standing and credibility

Page 12
http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/News/Speeches/05b932cd-b2e4-4863-a22f-6b84c893121a.htmhttp://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/News/Speeches/05b932cd-b2e4-4863-a22f-6b84c893121a.htmhttp://www.youtube.com/v/bT3q3PVZ_ck&rel=1http://www.youtube.com/v/bT3q3PVZ_ck&rel=1http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/News/Speeches/05b932cd-b2e4-4863-a22f-6b84c893121a.htmhttp://www.youtube.com/v/bT3q3PVZ_ck&rel=1


13/69


Nuclear Power Unpopular LinkPublic against Nuclear PowerNewshounds 8Newshounds.com, June 2008,http://www.newshounds.us/2008/06/19/gingrich_misrepresents_public_opinion_and_likely_results_of_offshore_drilling.php

Arecent NBC News/Wall Street Journal pollasked a much more neutral question: Which one of the following actions do you most suppas a way of addressing the rise in energy and gas prices? Encourage the development of wind and solar power. Open up protected areas iAlaska for oil and gas exploration. Encourage American consumers to conserve energy. Encourage off-shore exploration for oil and natugas. Encourage the construction of nuclear power facilities." Wind and solar was the winner, with Alaska second, conservation third andexploration fourth. Nuclear power was last.

Page 13
http://www.newshounds.us/2008/06/19/gingrich_misrepresents_public_opinion_and_likely_results_of_offshore_drilling.phphttp://www.pollingreport.com/energy.htmhttp://www.pollingreport.com/energy.htmhttp://www.pollingreport.com/energy.htmhttp://www.newshounds.us/2008/06/19/gingrich_misrepresents_public_opinion_and_likely_results_of_offshore_drilling.phphttp://www.pollingreport.com/energy.htm


14/69


Do Nothing Congress Link

Due to elections, congress is only passing bipartisan billsFreddoso 07David Freddoso. Do-Nothing Congress has little time left for appropriations. September 4, 2007 6:30 AMhttp://article.nationalreview.com/?q=ZTRhZWE0NTg2OWYyMjIzMzc2OTc2M2EwM2U3MGQ4NmI=

The Democratic 110th Congress has passed 80 bills that President Bush has signed into law. These include 35 bills naming or renamingfederal facilities (mostly post offices); ten bills extending current laws and levels of spending on such items as Indian housing and acommission on diplomacy, and one bill allowing construction of a 540-foot stretch of road in eastern Missouri. Just before the August recess,Congress also unanimously passed a bill to rebuild the collapsed bridge in Minnesota.

Another 22 non-controversial, bipartisan bills were passed on such topics as expediting passport renewals, transfer of Indian lands inOregon and Michigan, reorganization of D.C. public schools, establishment of a commission on foreign investment, the governingstructure of the Red Cross and the Inter-American Development Bank, property taxes in the Virgin Islands, breast-cancer research,nutrition for the elderly, NATO expansion, and Medicare billing .In addition to those, Congress made a (unanimous) technical correction to antitrust laws, expanded the boundaries of the Grand Tetons NationaPark, protected some judicial employees financial disclosure forms from the general public, and reallocated funds from the Senate GiftShop for a day-care program.

Page 14


15/69


Oil Lobbies Link

Oil Lobbies dislike action to curb global warmingBrown 2Anthony Browne, Times of London. August 16th, 2002http://www.corpwatch.org/article.php?id=3531

Conservative lobbyists in the US funded by Esso have urged President Bush to derail the Earth summit in Johannesburg because it is anti-freedomanti-people, anti-globalization and anti-Western.

The lobbyists, funded by the oil company that was also a big donor to the Presidents election campaign, urged Mr Bush to make sure thaglobal warming was kept off the agenda at the summit, which starts later this month.In a letter leaked to Friends of Earth in the US, the lobbyists tell Mr Bush: We applaud your decision not to attend in person . . . the summit will provideglobal media stage for many of the most irresponsible and destructive elements in critical economic and environmental issues. Your presencwould only help publicize various anti-freedom, anti-people, anti-globalization and anti-Western agendas, it said.

Among others, the letter was signed by representatives of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrowthe American Enterprise Institute, and the National Center for Policy Analysis, all of which received funding from ExxonMobil, Essosparent company. The letter, dated August 2, adds: The least important global environmental issue is potential global warming and we hope thatyour negotiators can keep it off the table and out of the spotlight.The World Summit on Sustainable Development will be attended by 100 world leaders. However, the US Government has already made clear that it will notsign any internationally binding agreements.

Oil Lobbies control the legislative processLearsy June 12thRaymond J. Learsy is the author of the updated version Over a Barrel: Breaking Oils Grip on Our Future. A graduate of the Wharton School, he made his life in the fast-

paced, risk-filled world of commodities trading, beginning in 1959.June 12, 2008. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/raymond-j-learsy/obama-pledges-imposing-

wi_b_106695.html

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama sought to tap into Americans' anxiety over high gasoline prices by pledging to seek a windfaprofits tax on U.S. oil companies if elected.

"I'll make oil companies like Exxonpay a tax on their windfall profits, and we'll use the money to help families pay for their skyrocketing energy costs and other billthe Illinois senator said on Monday according toReuters.

On Tuesday, the big oil companies with the help of Senate Republicans showed the nation who's boss. The Senate slapped aside an energypackage that would have imposed a 25% tax on unreasonable profits on the five largest oil companies who squeezed a staggering $36 billion profit out ofconsumers pockets this first quarter, it would have given government the leeway to address oil market speculation, opened the way for antitrustactions against the OPEC oil cartel (the forever oil lobby and administration stymied NOPEC legislation) and made energy price gouging a federal crime.In doing so, Congress has once again shown how out of touch it is with the feelings and desires of its constituents for forceful action. And onagain this administration, together with the oil lobby, has been the cheerleader for the vested and powerful interests of the oil industry.

Page 15
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080609/pl_nm/usa_politics_dc_96http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080609/pl_nm/usa_politics_dc_96http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080609/pl_nm/usa_politics_dc_96http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080609/pl_nm/usa_politics_dc_96


16/69


McCain Likes Alternative Energy

[ ] McCain supports alternative energy, hed vote for the planStyles 08Geoffrey Styles is Managing Director of GSW Strategy Group, LLC, an energy and environmental strategy consulting firm. Since 2002 he has served as a consultant, advisor andcommunicator, helping organizations and executives address systems-level policy. His industry experience includes leadership roles at Texaco Inc. in strategy development and scenar

planning, alliance management, and energy trading, at both the corporate center and with business units involved in global oil refining & marketing, transportation, and alternativeenergy. He has an MBA and a BS in Chemical Engineering. Friday, January 18, 2008 http://energyoutlook.blogspot.com/2008/01/candidates-energy-mccain.html

It's a Good thing that Youtube and Google convey ample information on Senator McCain's views about energy and the environment, because his campaign website is a bit

sparse on both topics, particularly compared to the level of detail provided by Senator Obama. From his comments in various speeches, town halls, and smaevents, it's clear that he is very concerned about our dependence on foreign oil, on both economic and national security grounds. Heemphasizes the instability or governmental hostility of many of the countries from which our imports flow, frequently citing Nigeria,Venezuela and Russia as examples. I wasn't surprised to see him make the "funding both sides of the War on Terror" argument in the principal energy policydocument on his website.National security is Senator McCain's strong suit, and he places energy squarely within this context. The measures hproposes for improving energy security cover the same themes as many other candidates, including wind and solar power, higherfueleconomy standards, electrification of transportation via plug-in hybrids andbatteries, and biofuels. He also strongly supports nuclearpower, based on its low greenhouse gas emissions. Surprisingly, given the intensity of his views on energy independence--which seem toinclude an unrealistic expectation of how soon it could be achieved--he would leave offshore drilling to the discretion of the nearestaffected states, and he opposes drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. I think he is missing a bet, there, but it's consistent with the theme ofenvironmental stewardship that runs through the whole McCain campaign. Climate change is a major element of that theme, and of the Senator'slegislative agenda. He has criticized the Bush administration's approach to global warming, and together with Senator Joe Lieberman (I-CT) he sponsored agreenhouse gas cap-and-trade bill that was the precursor of the Warner-Lieberman bill currently under considerationthe Senate. It's not hard to find video clips of the Senator talking about climate change and the inter-generational responsibility he feels in this regard. (I look forward toreviewing Governor Romney's position on this issue, since the Romney campaign has labeled Senator McCain's approach to climate change as"radical" and "wrong-headed.")

Page 16
http://www.johnmccain.com/http://www.johnmccain.com/http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/Issues/65bd0fbe-737b-4851-a7e7-d9a37cb278db.htmhttp://www.johnmccain.com/informing/news/Speeches/13bc1d97-4ca5-49dd-9805-1297872571ed.htmhttp://www.johnmccain.com/informing/news/Speeches/13bc1d97-4ca5-49dd-9805-1297872571ed.htmhttp://www.youtube.com/v/YAk0yoY64aA&rel=1http://www.youtube.com/v/YAk0yoY64aA&rel=1http://www.youtube.com/v/YAk0yoY64aA&rel=1http://www.youtube.com/v/587cn5Md9xE&rel=1http://www.youtube.com/v/587cn5Md9xE&rel=1http://www.youtube.com/v/587cn5Md9xE&rel=1http://www.youtube.com/v/pkFH_KEY29U&rel=1http://www.youtube.com/v/pkFH_KEY29U&rel=1http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/republicans_debate_in_iowa.htmlhttp://www.youtube.com/v/gYtLNwN_-O4&rel=1http://www.pewclimate.org/policy_center/analyses/s_1151_summary.cfmhttp://www.pewclimate.org/policy_center/analyses/s_1151_summary.cfmhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNJKAy7bhOM&feature=relatedhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNJKAy7bhOM&feature=relatedhttp://www.mittromney.com/News/Press-Releases/Research_Briefing_1.13http://www.mittromney.com/News/Press-Releases/Research_Briefing_1.13http://www.mittromney.com/News/Press-Releases/Research_Briefing_1.13http://www.johnmccain.com/http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/Issues/65bd0fbe-737b-4851-a7e7-d9a37cb278db.htmhttp://www.johnmccain.com/informing/news/Speeches/13bc1d97-4ca5-49dd-9805-1297872571ed.htmhttp://www.johnmccain.com/informing/news/Speeches/13bc1d97-4ca5-49dd-9805-1297872571ed.htmhttp://www.youtube.com/v/YAk0yoY64aA&rel=1http://www.youtube.com/v/YAk0yoY64aA&rel=1http://www.youtube.com/v/587cn5Md9xE&rel=1http://www.youtube.com/v/pkFH_KEY29U&rel=1http://www.youtube.com/v/pkFH_KEY29U&rel=1http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/republicans_debate_in_iowa.htmlhttp://www.youtube.com/v/gYtLNwN_-O4&rel=1http://www.pewclimate.org/policy_center/analyses/s_1151_summary.cfmhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zNJKAy7bhOM&feature=relatedhttp://www.mittromney.com/News/Press-Releases/Research_Briefing_1.13http://www.mittromney.com/News/Press-Releases/Research_Briefing_1.13


17/69


Nuclear Power Popular

Public support for nuclear energy will continually growCSI 6[Matthew Nisbet, Committee for Skeptical Inquiry; Going Nuclear: Frames and Public Opinion about Atomic Energy; TheSkeptical Inquirer; 6-1-2006;http://www.csicop.org/scienceandmedia/nuclear/]

Nuclear energy is likely to remain a third rail of environmental politics, with many environmental groups willing to devote heavy resources to opposing any new plantconstruction. Nuclear energy is also likely to remain an ambivalent issue for the generation of Americans who lived through Three Mile Island and Chernobyl, with the

images and frames of a runaway technology easily evoked by carefully designed message strategies. However, the more time passes with no new focusing even

related to the dangers of nuclear energy, and as the perceived urgency of energy independence and global warming increases, publicsupport in the aggregate is also likely to increase, as recent poll trends suggest. Framing will be the central device by which both advocates and opponenof nuclear energy manage public opinion at the national level. However, if and when the decision is made to build a new nuclear power plant in a specific area, mobilizedminorities of local citizens will prove decisive. Who shows up to protest, vote, or speak out at the local level will have a stronger impact on the future of nuclear energy in tU.S. than the current struggle to shape national opinion.

Polls prove nuclear technology is popular with the majority of American public

Taylor 6[James E., Environment and Climate News; Public Favors Nuclear Power; Poll; The Heartland Institute; 10-1-2006;http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=19723]Twice as many Americans support nuclear power as oppose it, according to a new poll by Bloomberg and the Los Angeles Times. In atelephone poll of nearly 1,500 Americansconducted from July 28 through August 1, 61 percent of respondents said they support the increased use of nuclear poas a way to contain projected global warming, while only 30 percent opposed it. The poll continues a trend of ever-increasing public support for nuclearpower as a clean, economical, and environmentally friendly power source. Global warming fears have swayed many former opponents to

support nuclear power. The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll results, published August 4,are in line with increasing support for nuclear power innewspaper editorial departments. Shortly after the poll results were released, the Miami Herald and Kalamazoo Gazette published house editorials supportingincreased use of nuclear power.

Nuclear technology popularity growing now recent energy policies proveTaylor 6 [James E., Environment and Climate News; Public Favors Nuclear Power; Poll; The Heartland Institute; 10-1-2006;http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=19723 ]

The growing public support for nuclear power is already having positive effects on future construction plans. The federal Energy Policy Act of2005 removed some of the obstacles to new plant construction. As a result, 16 companies have formally notified federal authorities they are considering building new nucl

power plants, according to testimony by Nuclear Regulatory Commission Chairman Nils Diaz in May 2006 before the Senate Energy Committee. Energy producer Entergyhas taken the lead on new plant construction and is likely to receive a site permit from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in 2007 allowing a proposed new plant i

Mississippi. Entergy plans to add a second new nuclear power plant in Louisiana, and it is likely to receive an NRC site permit for that plant in 2008. " There are severafactors working in favor of development and expansion of nuclear power plants in the near future," said Nuclear Energy Institutespokesperson Trish Conrad. "Expanded baseload production will be needed to meet growing demand [for electricity]. The Energy Policy

Act of 2005 has made the regulatory process less difficult. And public support is really lining up behind nuclear power, and for Goodreason."

Page 17
http://www.csicop.org/scienceandmedia/nuclear/http://www.csicop.org/scienceandmedia/nuclear/http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=19723http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=19723http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=19723http://www.csicop.org/scienceandmedia/nuclear/http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=19723http://www.heartland.org/Article.cfm?artId=19723


18/69


McCain supports Nuke PowerMcCain would boost nuke powerNews-Leader2008 (McCain talks energy at MSU: GOP presidential candidate calls for new nuclear plants, 6/19/08,http://www.news-leader.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080619/NEWS06/806190366/1015 )Republican presidential candidate John McCain is pushing for new nuclear power plants, carbon sequestration "clean coal" technology aoff-shore oil drilling to meet the country's energy needs for the next generation."One obstacle to expanding our nuclear-powered electricity is the mind-sest of those who prefer to buy time and hope that our energyproblems will somehow solve themselves," McCain said in his opening remarks at a town hall meeting at Missouri State University.McCain pledged to "set this nation on a course to building 45 new (nuclear) reactors by the year 2030" if voters chose him overDemocratic Sen. Barack Obama in November to be America's 44th president.

Page 18
http://www.news-leader.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080619/NEWS06/806190366/1015http://www.news-leader.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080619/NEWS06/806190366/1015http://www.news-leader.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080619/NEWS06/806190366/1015http://www.news-leader.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080619/NEWS06/806190366/1015http://www.news-leader.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080619/NEWS06/806190366/1015


19/69


Internal Links

Page 19


20/69


Coattails Internal

Only a popular policy by Bush will prevent the Democrats for winning in 2008Lichtman 5Allan Lichtman, Professor of History at The American University and Visiting Scholar at the California Institute of Technology, The Keys to the White House, 2005, p. X-X

Likewise, although President Bush will not be on the ticket in 2008, the fate of his would-be successor in the Republican Party will dependupon the president's performance in his second term. If the Bush ad ministration fails to meet the domestic and foreignpolicy challenges ofthe next four years, voters will dismiss the Republicans, regardless of the Democratic nominee. Moreover, according to the Keys, the Democrats will have structural advantages in 2008 that they lacked in 2004. The Republicans will not be fielding a sitting president, which results inthe loss of Key 3 and will likely confront a bruising battle for their party's nomination which forfeits Key 2. Thus, two Keys that the GOPheld in 2004 are in jeopardy for 2008, making a Democratic victory likely that year, despite the setbacks at the polls that Democrats have suffered thusfar in the twenty-first century. Democrats, moreover, need not worry about battling for their party's nomination; history shows that nominationstruggles within the out-party do not subvert its chances to recapture the White House. A vigorous challenging party usually has multiplepresidential contenders, each of whom professes to have the skills, personality, and policies needed to regain the White House. A spiritedout-party contest for the presidential nomination might even signify the vulnerability of the party in power, as candidates compete for what appeto be a pro mising nomination. The greatest popular vote victory by a challenging party candidate in American history was achieved by RepublicWarren Harding in 1920 after a deadlocked convention nominated him as a compromise candidate on the tenth ballot.

A popular policy initiative would allow Bush to secure enough voters for McCain to win the electionGoldberg 7Jonah Goldberg, Editor at large of National Review Online and syndicated columnist and a member of USA TODAY's board of contributors, USA TODAY, September 4,

2007,At home, Bush's options are far more constrained. But again, Clinton might be the model. The Democratic Congress is -- astonishingly -- even moreunpopular than President Bush. If Bush can pick some well-chosen fights with Congress, ideally over spending, he might at least bringback disheartened members of his own political base. Bush might also borrow from Clinton's post-1994 playbook of proposing a lot ofsmall, very popular (and mostly insipid) programs and initiatives. Clinton had his school uniforms and V-chips. Surely the authors of compassionaconservatism could conjure similar treacle.Ideally, such proposals would unite a majority of Americans but divide moderate Democrats from the party's left-wing base (spare me therending of clothes and gnashing of teeth over the cruelty of "wedge issues").A goal: Just change the climateFor example, paying inner-city students to get Good grades -- a proposal backed by New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and former U.S. House speaker Newt Gingrichalike -- might be a Good idea with the added benefit of possibly annoying teacher's unions.

Such ideas are hard to come up with, never mind sell, particularly given Bush's liabilities and the media climate generally. But the president needn't get such ideaspassed, he need only get them discussed in order to recalibrate the political climate more in his favor. It wouldn't be easy, but he still hasthe biggest megaphone in the country. He also holds the veto pen. Bush seemed to have lost it in the Oval Office couch cushions for much of his presidenc

but the Democratic takeover inspired him to find it.Given the Democrats' need to placate their own base in order to prove all that effort in '06 was worth it, Bush could have some fatopportunities to rally the majority of Americans, or at least his own base, to the GOP side.

Page 20


21/69


Bush Matters InternalPopular victories for Bush drain Obamas momentumJackie C., 2-10-2008, Political Science, UC Berkeley, Bush fatigue propels Obama and memories of RFK,http://www.gather.com/viewArticle.jsp?articleId=281474977255056

This is the backdrop that's led to the Bush fatigue that so benefits Barack Obama, and the democrats in general. No one could have imagined that Bushwould win reelection in 2004, I was devastated, and I truly believed that our nation, our system, our livelihoods would be forever lost. Kerry should have won. But wesettled for someone that lacked the charisma and inspirational qualities that we are being bombarded with by today's candidates. Kerry didn't excite or ignite enough of uto make the difference. It wasn't until we woke up the day after the 2004 election, and took stock, that we really started to become motivated. For the first time in a longtime, kids that were coming of voting age had only known war. As they studied civics and government, there was actual evidence to study. As they studied the constitutiothey became aware of the damage BushCo had done. As they applied to college or graduated and entered the business world, they arrived burdened with crushing studentloan debt, low wages, and more than a 50/50 chance that they wouldn't be able to afford health care. The movement had started, and 2006 would prove crucial. Stay at homom's and hard working blue collar workers recognized they were being squeezed, squashed, ignored, taken advantage of, and quickly losing ground, assets and wealth.Well heeled single women and wealthy men and older women realized their voter apathy had allowed this political tsunami to reach massive proportions. The stage was sewe'd had enough. An astute politician who knows our history could read the teas leaves, and through intelligence, charisma and the promise of change, propel them selves

forward. I'm not saying it would work for just anyone, but Senator Obama is the poster child for youth, exuberance, change and a newgeneration. We yearn for change from Bush/Cheney, and who illustrates the biggest change? Obama truly appears to be the opposite ofBushCo. The Bush scandals that so benefit Senator Obama reached critical mass and the lethargic apathetic electorate began to care. Republicans who were threatened

party dogma not to speak out or challenge their President for fear of being labeled a traitor, sympathetic to terrorists; saw the light and realized they were being led about bymentally challenged, uncaring, selfish, imbecile. And if they thought Cheney would be the calm in the storm and voice of reason, they realized he, even more than Bush wvery dangerous. The scandals mounted, and even with our weak and biased media, we recognizeda pattern of corruption. I've culled lists, and my own journals, and camewith over 7 pages of disasters & scandals. I tried to edit is as much as possible. Here's a partial list of what's caused the fatigue that helps Obama: secret energy plans, failto recognize and address global warming, Terry Schiavo, trying to roadblock the 9/11 commission and then failing to implement the recommendations, false, cherry pickedintelligence, Cheney's Preventive war doctrine (requires no eminent threat, and has always been considered a war crime), state of the union lies, bloated deficits, greed, taxcuts for the wealthy, illegal surveillance (SWIFT), war mongering, war profiteering (Civilian Contractors), loss of civil rights (Patriot Act), acceptance of torture (MilitaryCommissions Act), black prisons and renditions, Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo, false military reporting (Pat Tillman, Jessica Lynch, et al), lack of diplomatic relations or attemat diplomatic solutions - ANYWHERE.; and the distasteful, long tortured reign of the rubber stamping GOP congress. We've seen expanded weapons development at the cof scientific research funding, the gutting of the CIA (Porter Goss), traitorous acts against secret agents (Plame), the deplorable state of our veterans care system (WalterReed, high suicide rates, extended deployments, many other examples), cronyism to the extreme (heck-of-a job Brownie, the firing of US Justices replaced by partisanhacks), Harriet Meirs and the other Supreme Court appointments, the wasteland caused by Hurricane Katrina, the wasted money and assets poured into the new departmen"Homeland Security" (we are less secure), lobbyist scandals (K Street, Jack Abramoff), Kyle "Dusty" Foggo, No. 3 at the CIA, Duke Cunningham convicted of receiving$2.4 million in bribes from defense contractors, Tom DeLay, indicted for conspiracy to violate campaign finance laws (money laundering) in Texas;Mark Foley (R- FloridaJeff Gagnon, Medicare Part D, "No Child Left Behind", voter suppression, rising health care, education, energy and food prices, stagnant wages, negative savings rate, failieconomy, highest rate of foreclosures and small business bankruptcies, and ballooning earmarks. We were astounded for days weeks and months by FDA recalls and EPAfailures. WE learned about signing statements, the unilateral (aka Unitary) Executive doctrine, the overuse and abuse of our precious National Guard and the overextensioninsufficient training of our combat troops (too many tours, enlisting criminals, gang members, non-high school graduates, anyone breathing). We have an out of balance tr

deficit, and declining dollar, which should cause great concern but is never addressed. Bush has pushed for missile defenses that do not work, and tried togut the clean air act, with the "Clear Skies Act," and he cut AIDS funding to programs that promoted condom use instead of abstinenceonly programs. If not for this Bush fatigue, Senator Obama may have had a steeper hill to climb. But the nation, all of us are ready anddesperate for change. In any other instance, Senator Obama would be highly scrutinized, and deeply vetted by the media who areobviously in love with the idea of a changing force; and an honest to Goodness dynamic political movement of hope.

Page 21
http://www.gather.com/viewArticle.jsp?articleId=281474977255056http://www.gather.com/viewArticle.jsp?articleId=281474977255056


22/69


Bush Matters Internal

McCain is linked to Bushs foreign policies.Dergham 1/11. (Raghida, staff writer. The Road Map Of Candidates' Positions To Enter The White House. Dar Al-Hayat Online.)

Ifthe US presidential elections will in fact be a National Security election, as it is believed, they will be at the center of interest, concern and expectation of the whoworld because American national security has become international as a result of the type of threats to American security. In this phase of the elections, attention is focused othe questions of gender and color, since the competition between the African-American Senator Barack Obama (Illinois) and Senator Hillary Clinton (New York), the former First Larepresents a wonderful historical development for the US and the world. There is a great deal of enthusiasm reinforced by the potential precedent of putting a woman or a black man in the White

House. The momentum is gathering for "change" in the sense of removing Republicans from the Presidency so that the Democrats will have both the presidency and the majority in Congress.Angvoices about the US' involvement in the war on Iraq are growing louder, while there is a rising resentment toward president George W Bushand his era. But all that is taking place in the context o

politics and is a far cry from scrutinizing policy. So when the storm of the primaries calms down, the American conversation will surely turnfrom demandin"change" to examining the quality of that change at a time of hugechallenges to American national security. At that time, experience for instance, might winover enthusiasm for untested new leadership, especially if major events occurin places like Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq or Iran, or if there is a big major

PoliticsDA - Fellows

Documents

Transcript of PoliticsDA - Fellows