Politics, Trade and US Beef Outlook for 2018/19 · ABU's To Capture Over Half of World Corn Exports...
Transcript of Politics, Trade and US Beef Outlook for 2018/19 · ABU's To Capture Over Half of World Corn Exports...
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Politics, Trade and US Beef Outlook
for 2018/19Daniel W Basse
President AgResourceAugust 28, 2018
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2018/19 Ag Market Themes• World Political/Economic “Order” is Changing to “Disorder!” Central Banks were
accommodative for the past decade with $12 Trillion of QE, low interest rates as they all worked in concert. Central Banks are now unwinding prior policies and ending their working relationships. And politically, we have Brexit, North Korea, President Trump, regional protectionism on trade and uncertain politicians. The markets will endure heightened financial risk/volatility into 2020 election.
• This Year’s Ag Black Swan is US Trade Sanctions. China was the largest US market for ag goods in 2017 at $19.6 Bil. China offered to secure an additional $30-35 Bil of US ag goods in coming years along with $35-40 Bil of energy. Trump Admin said yes and then no in a high stakes game of poker via IT protection/2025 fight.
• The US is the world’s high cost grain producer. Costs must come down or consolidation will accelerate. $12 Bil of US Trump Tariff aid mostly to soybeans.
• 2018 World meat production to be record large with the US cattle herd to expand into mid 2019 . No indication that world pork or poultry producers are considering ending their expansionary plans. Something to closely follow is African Swine Fever (ASF) that is just now impacting China hog herd.
• US interest rates rising amid improving US economy. US inflation rates rising which could push the US Fed to raise interest rates 4X in 2018, and 2X in 2019. US Fed Funds Rate peaks at 2.75-3.0%% in mid 2019.
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2018 Ag Themes• A 20% drop in the value of the USD or a settlement of trade disputes are needed
to spark a lasting ag market recovery. Non US world ag production expanding amid Trump Trade Tariffs/USD. The US dollar is up 9% so far in 2018.
• US cattle prices to form peak in early 2019 ($120-124) with price declines into mid year. US beef supplies to be tightest between October/November.
• The world is producing record amounts of food, the key question going forward is whether future economic growth (outside of the US) can sustain larger demand? NEW DEMAND DRIVERS are needed to alter the oversupplied US ag Landscape! US Trade Tariffs add to US ag Instability near term. Can the Trump Administration “Lock Down” Chinese demand in years ahead? Otherwise, non US competitive pressures will accelerate.
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World InflationHigher For First Time Since 2011
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One has to be Careful About being Too Bearish Commodities!
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King US Dollar Is Based on Strong US Economy
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Last 12 Months has lifted Non US Ag profit/productivity
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South American Farmers Respond with Sizeable Soy/Corn seeding gains
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Russian Wheat Farmers Enjoy 45% Gains –Double the rate for the US
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Changes in Ag/Food/Energy/Macro Policy
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Can China and India Drive Improved World Food Demand into 2026?
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US Tariffs Rising to Threatening Levels
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China has allowed Yuan to Decline 9.5% To Counter Tariffs
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China Consumption of Meat is Flattening!
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4 ASF Outbreaks that are 1,400 Miles Apart – Concentration Rate Huge
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ASF Spread Thru Body Fluids and Biting Insects
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Africa to Europe, Russia and Now China. Can the Pacific Block the US?
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US Soybeans Most Expensive To China including Tariff
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Two Distinct World Soy Markets –Brazilian Farmers Rejoice!
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Chinese Crush Margins – Best in 2 Years! No Pain yet for Livestock
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China Holds 50% of World’s Wheat Stocks
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Blessed with Water- Africa Could be Self Sufficient? Infrastructure/Tech?
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2027/28 World Grain Trade Forecast- Where are the Gains?
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US Farm Borrowing Costs Approaching 1980 Record
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Operational Crisis as Working Capital Availability Declines for US Farms
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US Net Farm Income Forecast to Be Depressed into 2027
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Thankfully, US Cattle Industry is not leveraged! Bankers Push Reduced Risk
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World Grain Trade Stagnation!Corn/Wheat Trade Flat in 2017/18
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Share World Exports (%)
MMT ABU's To Capture Over Half of World Corn Exports in 2017/18
Ukraine Exports (MMT) Argentina Exports (MMT) Brazil Exports (MMT) ABU's Share of Wrld Exp (%)
ABU Corn Exports: US Suffers
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US Corn Export Demand To Gain on S Hemisphere Corn Shortfall
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US Annual Corn Exports: Record Large in 2018/19?
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World Wheat Exporters’ Stocks/Use Down Sharply
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May 1st to July 15th Normal Rain
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Warmest May 1st to July 15th on Record
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Corn Crop Conditions Decline; US Corn Yield of 175-176 BPA?
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US soybeans Similar with a Yield of 52.4 BPA.
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December Corn Could Fall To $3.50 If Yield is 180 BPA
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World Corn/Soy/Wheat Prices to Rise Slowly Over Time
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US Is Not The World’s Low-Cost Corn Producer
http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2018/06/international-benchmarks-for-corn-production.html
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Ag Tech – Faith in Our Future !
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Non Irrigated US Corn Contest Yield vs US Trendline Yield 386 – 515 BPA Irrigated!
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US Beef and Cattle Outlook
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Annual Cow/Calf Margin:
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$/Cow
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Annual US Cattle Feeding Margin:
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$/Head
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Monthly Cattle Feeding Returns
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Annual Packer Margins (2017 YTD)
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Record Kill Margins for August
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US per Capita Meat Consumption
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LBS Beef Pork Poultry
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4th Quarter Per Capita Beef Disappearance: Largest Since 2008
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Weekly Cattle Kills
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US Cattle Carcass Weights
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3rd and 4th Quarter US Beef Production
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Record US Beef Stocks in Freezer
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Feeder Cattle Placements
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Cumulative Weekly Mexican Feeder Cattle Imports
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Monthly Feeder Cattle Placements
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The Drop Credit: Weekly By-Product Value
$5
$7
$9
$11
$13
$15
$17
$19
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
$/CWT
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Quarterly US Beef Production
5500
5700
5900
6100
6300
6500
6700
6900
7100
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Mil Lbs 2017 2018 5 Yr Avg
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Quarterly US Beef Exports
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
800.0
900.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Mil Lbs 2017 2018 5 Yr Avg
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Quarterly US Domestic Beef Use
5500
5700
5900
6100
6300
6500
6700
6900
7100
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Mil Lbs 2017 2018 5 Yr Avg
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4th Quarter Avg Live Cattle Price Model
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Plains Cash Cattle Prices - $100-103 Low In the 4th Quarter?
Copright © 209
$50$60$70$80$90
$100$110$120$130$140$150$160$170$180
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
$/CWT
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![Page 66: Politics, Trade and US Beef Outlook for 2018/19 · ABU's To Capture Over Half of World Corn Exports in 2017/18. Ukraine Exports (MMT) Argentina Exports (MMT) Brazil Exports (MMT)](https://reader034.fdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022043023/5f3e8b760e696c4c3341b070/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
Thank You
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