Phyl Speser, J.D., Ph.D. Foresight Science & Technology Incorporated 401.273.4844, ext. 35...

Phyl Speser, J.D., Ph.D.Foresight Science & Technology Incorporated

401.273.4844, ext. [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Foresight Science & Technology www.foresightst.com

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M ar k et O r ien ta tio n Lau n c h T ac tic s

P r o d u c t Ad v an tag e

N ew P r o d u c t P er f o r m an c e O rg an iza tio n al P er fo r m an c e

Source: F. Lanerak, E. Hultink, H. Robben, “ The Impact of Market Orientation, Product Advantage, and Launch Proficiency on New Product performance and Organizational Performance,” Journal of the Product Development Management Association, V. 21, #2, March, 2004, p.89


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Developer Producers/Distributors

End-UsersOpinionLeaders

create awareness andstimulate demand

seek product and/or servicecreate awareness and support

legitimizeand stimulatedemand

legitimize and enhance desirability

Seektechnology

Past Present Future

Market Possibilities

Clear and Sustainable CompetitiveAdvantage at Projected Dateof Market Entry

© Foresight Science and Technology

Price Performance Ease of Use Umpf


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Trade-offs and

Concerns affecting Metrics Matrix

Technology’s Yields on Metrics

NeedsRelationship

MatrixImportance of Needs


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What Do You Got?What Do You Got?

The Economy’s Infrastructure The Wars Energy Policy Health Care Education Global Warming

Environment Food Water


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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Covalent.svg


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Extension

Extension

Extension

CoreEnabling

EnablingCompeting

Time

Strategic


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Objectives Action Plan

Ob

ject

ive 1

(R

ed

uce

/In

crease

)

Ob

ject

ive 2

Ob

ject

ive 3

Ob

ject

ive 4

Ob

ject

ive 5

Resources Required Who? M

easu

re

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Task 1

Task 2

Task 3

Task 4

Task 5

Needs

= 9 High

= 3

= 1 Low

Time Line

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NASA_TRL_Meter.jpg

Offensive Emerging Pacing Spare

Defensive Hedging Imitative Spare


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Lead all Competitors

Be in Top 5% of all Competitors

Lead all Direct Competitors

Be in Top Half of all Competitors

Crucial for Future Growth

Crucial for Take-off

DefensiveOffensive

Impactfrom Use ofTechnology

Function


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5 W’s

Who is doing it?What is being done?Where are they doing itWhy is it being done?When are they doing it?

Sell intellectual assets that can provide “a proven solution for a repetitive activity.

Technology is a Tool for Doing Something


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Product Innovation Stage Bundle of

Features Standard User

Interface

Process Innovation Stage Eliminate Steps Improve Reliability Improve Efficiency

of Resource Use

Dominant Design Emerges

Opportunity

Opportunity

Opportunity

Opportunity

Yield 2

Yield 1

Yield 3


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Opportunity

Your Patents

Your PatentsOpportunity

Yield Two

Yield One

Yield 3

Technology’s Yields on Metrics

Relationship Matrix

Competitiveness of Substitutable Technologies

Importance of Needs

Firms and Institutions


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Performance

PRICE

Competitor 3

Competitor 1

Competitor2

USER REQUIREMENTSOR PREFERENCES

Ease of Use


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How well Defined and Stable isthe Dominant Design

How MatureIs the Technology(TRL)

Option or license for all IP

CRADA, Contract R&D,Strategic Alliance

Application/geographyspecific licensing

Venture

Sales, OEM


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3%

14%

34% 34%

16%

Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards

3%

14%

34% 34%

16%

Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards

Time

Yield

Requirement

S1a

Trajectory

Technology 1 S

1c

Requirement

S1b

S2c

S2b

S2a

Trajectory

Technology 2


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D is tr ib u tio n w ith o u t M ar k e t F o r c e

D is tr ib u tio n w ithM ar k et F o r c eM ar k et F o r c e


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Perform

ance

Ease- of- Use

S kills

Capacities

Goals

I nputs - Outputs

T ime 1

T ime 2

A t tra

cti v

eness

of Tec

h n ol ogy

Pri

ce

MarketForce

MarketForce

MarketForce


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I d ea Bas icR es ear c h

Ap p liedR es ear c h

P r o d u c tD ev elo p m en t

M ar k etI n tr o d u c tio n

P r o c es sE n g in eer in g

0 $

CU

MU

LA

TIV

E R

EV

EN

UE

S

T I M E

Produ

ct

Promotion

Price

Distrib

ution

Customers


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Alignmentof Vision and Positioning of Target withMarketSegment of Application

Alignment of Target’s Technology Space with Developer’s Technology

Ability of Target’s Capabilities to Supplement those of the Developer

Most FeasibleTargets

CORE

Technology Familiarity

Mar

ket F

amili

arity

Control

Partner

Divest orMonitor

STRATEGY

Control:InternalDevelopment

AcquisitionsIn-License

Partner:Joint VenturesAlliancesInternal VenturesOut-License

Divest:AssignmentsSales

Monitor:Venture CapitalEducationalAcquisitions

Market Development

TechnologyDevelopment

Adapted from Roberts and Berry, SMR 1988.


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Past Present Future

Strength of Intellectual Asset Portfolio

Staff Capacities of to Realize Plan

© Foresight Science and Technology

High

LowRevenue From Relevant Market Applications


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Path to Market: License or Path to Market: License or Spin OutSpin Out


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DealValueProposition

\You\You

\\

Them \Them \

You do DealYou do Deal You Walk AwayYou Walk Away

They do DealThey do Deal $10m, $0.5m$10m, $0.5m -$0.05m, $0.0m-$0.05m, $0.0m

They walk They walk AwayAway

$0.1m, -$0.1m, -$0.05m$0.05m

-$0.01m, --$0.01m, -$0.01m$0.01m


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Fair Market Value is what is there to divide up


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Total Yearly Cash Flows to Licensor

0

2000000

4000000

6000000

8000000

10000000

12000000

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

License Initiation FeeMilestones and other PaymentsAnnual RoyaltiesAnnual License Maintenance Fee


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Process Contribution to Total Project Cost(excl. Investments)

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Re

sea

rch

Fin

an

cin

g

Des

ign

Imp

l & E

ng

Te

st M

gt

Mfg

Pl

& C

trl

Prc

& E

qu

ip

Lo

g &

Dis

p

Ma

na

ge

men

t

Dis

t &

Srv

c

Co

st

in %

of

To

tal

Net Operating Income/Loss and Cummulated Cashflows with Breakeven

-50000000

0

50000000

100000000

150000000

200000000

250000000

300000000

350000000

400000000

3652

5

3725

6

3798

6

3871

7

3944

7

4017

8

4090

8

4163

9

4236

9

4310

0

4383

0

4456

1

Net Operating Income/(Losses)

Net Difference of Cummulated Cashflows

The substantive process drives the cost calculation

The cost calculation, together with the revenue projections, drives the gross profit

Discounted Cash Flow Determines Financial Payoff


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Risk Level Approximate DR(%) Description

Risk Free 10-18 Existing product, high demand,building more of the same

Very Low Risk 15-20 New well understood technologyfor an existing product

Low Risk 20-30 New features, well understood technology into an existing market

Moderate Risk 25-35 New product, well understood tech-nology into market with competition

High Risk 30-40 New product, not well understood technology into an existing market.

Very High Risk 35-45 New product, new technology, new market

Extremely High Risk 50-70 New company, unproven technology, new market

Source: Early Stage technology-Richard Razgaitis


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End User Advice

End User Testing

Target Advice

TargetTesting

Adapted from R. Megantz, How to License Technology,Wiley, 1996

Idea – Design – Proof – Brass – Prototype – Product – Production – Sales – Distribution – Customer of of Board Engineering Marketing Support Concept Feasibility


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STAKEHOLDER ANALYSISLevel of Commitment People or Group

Test & Eval.Regulators/Standards

Opinion Leaders

Customers Funders NGOsIndustry Assoc.

Enthusiastic

Helpful

Compliant

Hesitant

Indifferent

Uncooperative

Opposed

Hostile

Key:

O - Level Necessary for Success

X - Current Level

Control over Use

Control overKnowledgeand Know-How

Buy all Rights,Acquire Developer

Non-ExclusiveLicense

Joint Venture

VentureCapital Exclusive

General License

Exclusive Limited License. CRADA, Strategic Alliance


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• Nothing happens without a sale.David Speser

• If opportunity doesn’t knock, build a door.Milton Berle

• A well-defined imagination is the source of great deeds. Chinese Fortune Cookie

Phyl Speser, J.D., Ph.D. Foresight Science & Technology Incorporated 401.273.4844, ext. 35...

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Transcript of Phyl Speser, J.D., Ph.D. Foresight Science & Technology Incorporated 401.273.4844, ext. 35...