PHILLIPS CARBON REPORT BY CRISIL

7/30/2019 PHILLIPS CARBON REPORT BY CRISIL

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MAKINGMARKETS

FUNCTIONBETTE

R

YEARS

Apollo HospitalsEnterprise Ltd

CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch

Enhancing investment decisions

Detailed Report

Phillips CarbonBlack Ltd

Q2FY13 Results Update


2/12


Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix

The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process Analysisof Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental grade is assigned on a

five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The valuation grade is assigned on a five-

point scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).

CRISIL

Fundamental Grade Assessment

CRISIL

Valuation Grade Assessment

5/5 Excellent fundamentals 5/5 Strong upside (>25% from CMP)

4/5 Superior fundamentals 4/5 Upside (10-25% from CMP)

3/5 Good fundamentals 3/5 Align (+-10% from CMP)

2/5 Moderate fundamentals 2/5 Downside (negative 10-25% from CMP)

1/5 Poor fundamentals 1/5 Strong downside (


3/12

MAKINGMARKETS

FUNCTIONBETTER

YEARSPhillips Carbon Black LtdShort term support from the government

Fundamental Grade 4/5 (Superior fundamentals)

Valuation Grade 5/5 (CMP has strong upside)

Industry Chemicals

1

December 05, 2012

Fair Value Rs 140

CMP Rs 95

For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.in

CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI ) and Thomson Reuters.

Phillips Carbon Black Ltds (PCBLs) Q2FY13 earnings were lower than CRISIL Researchs

expectations. Sales volume declined sequentially due to sluggish demand and increase in

cheaper imports from China (due to lower coking coal prices), which led to decline in

revenues. Profitability continued to be under pressure. As expected, the government has

imposed a safeguard duty on carbon black imports from China, which is likely to support the

profitability going ahead. Given the sharp slide in coking coal prices, production of carbon

black through coal tar remains a key monitorable, as China manufactures carbon black

through the coking coal route. We have revised our earnings estimates to factor in the weak

performance of Q2FY13. However, given the long-term positive outlook on the end-user tyre

industry and considering PCBLs dominant position in the domestic carbon black industry, we

maintain the fundamental grade of 4/5, indicating that its fundamentals are superior relative to

other listed securities in India.

Sluggish demand impacts revenue growth

Revenues declined by 6.1% q-o-q (up 3.4% y-o-y) to Rs 5,831 mn. Carbon black volumes

declined 7.9% q-o-q and 8.1% y-o-y to 73,954 tonnes. Domestic carbon black volumes (70%

to total sales) fell by 11% q-o-q while export volumes remained flat. Realisation increased

2.4% q-o-q and 12.7% y-o-y to Rs 75,750 per tonne due to high raw material prices. Power

sales also declined 20% q-o-q to Rs 210 mn as the unit sales declined by 8% to 72.5 mn

units and realisation declined to Rs 2.9/unit from Rs 3.3/unit in Q1FY13.

Pressure on margin continues

EBITDA margin fell to zero from 10% in Q2FY12 and 7.7% in Q1FY13. Margins continued to

be under pressure on account of PCBLs inability to pass on high raw material prices due to

lower offtake in the domestic market and higher imports of carbon black from China. The

company reported a loss of Rs 329 mn against a profit of Rs 66 mn in Q1FY13. Reported

EPS was Rs (9.5) compared to Rs 1.9 in the previous quarter.

Short term support from the government; profitability to improve in H2FY13

To protect the domestic carbon black manufacturers, the government has imposed a

safeguard duty on Chinese imports, applicable between October 5, 2012 and December 31,

2013. For the period October 5, 2012 to October 4, 2013, the duty is 30% and for the

remaining three months, it is 25%. This will reduce the cost competitiveness of imported

carbon black and help domestic manufacturers. We expect profitability to improve in the next

two quarters. We expect the Chinese companies cost of production to go up (which will lower

their cost competitiveness) due to the expected increase in coking coal prices.

Valuations: Current market price has strong upside

Our discounted cash flow-based revised fair value is Rs 140 per share. At the current market

price of Rs 95, the valuation grade is 5/5.

KEY FORECAST

(Rs mn) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14EOperating income 12,493 17,280 22,405 24,030 25,142

EBITDA 1,708 2,230 2,079 1,341 2,438

Adj Net income 1,100 1,116 810 59 907

Adj EPS-Rs 38.9 33.6 23.5 1.7 26.3

EPS growth (%) NM (13.7) (30.1) (92.8) 1,444.9

Dividend Yield (%) 4.0 3.9 4.9 0.3 5.2

RoCE (%) 18.4 19.4 13.5 6.2 14.1

RoE (%) 40.6 26.4 14.3 0.9 13.4

P/E (x) 3.7 4.5 4.0 55.5 3.6

P/BV (x) 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5

EV/EBITDA (x) 5.4 4.2 4.9 7.0 4.0

NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price

Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimates

CFV MATRIX

KEY STOCK STATISTICSNIFTY/SENSEX 5870/19305

NSE/BSE ticker PHILIPCARB / PHILIPCA

Face value (Rs per share) 10

Shares outstanding (mn) 35

Market cap (Rs mn)/(US$ mn) 3,257/60

Enterprise value (Rs mn)/(US$ mn) 10,220/188

52-week range (Rs)/(H/L) 121/76

Beta 1.2

Free float (%) 47.7%

Avg daily volumes (30-days) 94,669

Avg daily value (30-days) (Rs mn) 9.5

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

PERFORMANCE VIS--VIS MARKET

Returns

1-m 3-m 6-m 12-m

PCBL -9% 6% -0.2% -11%

NIFTY 3% 12% 21% 16%

ANALYTICAL CONTACTMohit Modi (Director) [email protected]

Vinay Chhawchharia [email protected]

Vishal Rampuria [email protected]

Client servicing desk

+91 22 3342 3561 [email protected]

1 2 3 4 5

1

2

3

4

5

Valuation Grade

FundamentalGrade

Poor

Fundamentals

ExcellentFundamentals

Stron

g

Downs

ide

Strong

Upsid

e

52.3% 52.3% 52.3% 52.3%

12.9% 11.4% 10.7% 10.1%

9.8% 9.0% 7.4% 6.3%

25.1% 27.3% 29.7% 31.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12Promoter FII DII Others


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2

Q2FY13 Results Summary

(Rs mn) Q2FY13 Q1FY13 Q2FY12 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%) H1FY13 H1FY12 y-o-y (%)

Net sales 5,831 6,210 5,639 (6.1) 3.4 12,041 11,314 6.4

Raw materials cost 5,106 4,991 4,307 2.3 18.5 10,097 8,583 17.6

Raw materials cost (% of net sales) 87.6% 80.4% 76.4% 7.2 pps 11.0 pps 83.9% 75.9% 8.0 pps

Employees cost 187 130 176 43.2 5.8 317 309 2.5

Other expenses 541 611 590 (11.5) (8.4) 1,152 1,122 2.7

EBITDA (2) 477 565 NM NM 475 1,300 -63.5

EBITDA margin 0 7.7% 10.0% -7.7 pps -10.0 pps 3.9% 11.5% -7.5 pps

Depreciation 129 115 121 12.5 6.9 244 238 2.3

EBIT (131) 362 444 NM NM 231 1,062 -78.3

Interest and finance charges 242 309 226 (21.5) 7.3 551 298 85.1

Operating PBT (374) 54 218 (796.8) (271.2) (320) 764 NM

Other Income 22 28 4 (23.1) 453.8 50 9 446.2

PBT (352) 82 222 NM NM (270) 774 NMTax (23) 16 14 (242.5) (265.2) (7) 149 -104.6

PAT (329) 66 208 NM NM (263) 624 NM

Adj PAT (329) 66 208 NM NM (263) 624 NM

Adj PAT margin -5.6% 1.1% 3.7% -6.7 pps -9.3 pps -2.2% 5.5% -7.7 pps

No of equity shares (mn) 34.5 34.5 33.2 - - 34.5 33.2 -

Adj EPS (Rs) (9.5) 1.9 6.3 NM NM (7.6) 18.8 NM

Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Margin pressure continues Losses ballooned

Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research

4,3

21

4,4

42

5,6

76

5,6

39

5,1

49

5,4

04

6,2

10

5,8

31

14.7% 14.3%13.0%

10.0%10.5%

8.6%7.7%

0.0%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%14%

16%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Q3FY11

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12

Q1FY13

Q2FY13

(Rs mn)

Net Sales EBITDA Margin (RHS)

300 333 416 208 196

50 66

-329

6.9% 7.5% 7.3%

3.7% 3.8%

0.9% 1.1%

-5.6% -8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%8%

10%

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300400

500

Q3FY11

Q4FY11

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12

Q1FY13

Q2FY13

(Rs mn)

PAT PAT Margin (RHS)


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MAKINGMARKETS

FUNCTIONBETTER

YEARSPhillips Carbon Black Ltd

3

Share price movement Fair value movement since initiation

-Indexed to 100

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, BSE, CRISIL Research

Earnings Estimates Revised Downwards

Particulars UnitFY13E FY14E

Old New % change Old New % change

Revenues (Rs mn) 22,236 24,030 8.1% 23509 25,142 6.95%

EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,995 1,341 -32.8% 2472 2,438 -1.39%

EBITDA margin % 9.3% 5.6% -370 bps 10.5% 9.7% -82 bps

PAT (Rs mn) 518 59 -88.7% 963 907 -5.83%

PAT margin % 2.3% 0.2% -209 bps 4.10% 3.61% -49 bps

Source: CRISIL Research estimates

Reasons for changes in estimates

Line item FY13 FY14

Revenues Revised upward to factor in the higher realisation on account of

increase in raw material prices

Revised upward to factor in the higher realisation as

we expect raw material price to remain high

EBITDA margins Revised downward to factor in the lower-than-expected performance in

Q2FY13 due to the sluggish demand and increasing dumping of low-

cost carbon black from China (due to lower coking coal prices)

To factor in demand slowdown

PAT margins Lowered in line with the operating margins Lowered in line with the operating margins

0

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PCBL NIFTY

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('000)(Rs)

Traded Quant ity (RHS) CRISIL Fair Value PCBL


6/12


4

Valuation Grade: 5/5

We continue to use the discounted cash flow method to value PCBL. In line with our earnings

estimate revision, we lower our fair value to Rs 140 from Rs 160 per share. The implied P/E

multiples at this price is 5.3x FY14E EPS. At the current market price, our valuation grade is

5/5.

One-year forward P/E band One-year forward EV/EBITDA band

c

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

P/E premium / discount to NIFTY P/E movement

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

0

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PCBL 5x 6x 7x 8x 9x

0

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(Rs mn)

EV 4x 5x 6x 7x

-100%

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Premium/Discount to NIFTY Median premium/discount to NIFTY

-20

0

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40

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100

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(Times)

1yr Fwd PE (x) Median PE

+1 std dev

-1 std dev

Lower our fair value toRs 140 per share


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MAKINGMARKETS

FUNCTIONBETTER

YEARSPhillips Carbon Black Ltd

5

CRISIL IER reports released on Phillips Carbon Black Ltd

Date Nature of report

Fundamental

grade Fair value

Valuation

grade

CMP

(on the date of report)01-Nov-10 Initiating coverage 4/5 Rs 286 5/5 Rs 198

25-Feb-11 Q3FY11 result update 4/5 Rs 290 5/5 Rs 135

09-May-11 Q4FY11 result update 4/5 Rs 290 5/5 Rs 145

04-Aug-11 Q1FY12 result update 4/5 Rs 260 5/5 Rs 143

28-Nov-11 Q2FY12 result update 4/5 Rs 240 5/5 Rs 109

07-Feb-12 Detailed Report 4/5 Rs 212 5/5 Rs 95

08-Jun-12 Q4FY12 result update 4/5 Rs 187 5/5 Rs 97

14-Aug-12 Q1FY13 result update 4/5 Rs 160 5/5 Rs 91

05-Dec-12 Q2FY13 result update 4/5 Rs 140 5/5 Rs 95


8/12


6

Annexure: Financials

Source: CRISIL Research

Income statement Balance Sheet

(Rs mn) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E (Rs mn) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14EOperating income 12,493 17,280 22,405 24,030 25,142 Liabilities

EBITDA 1,708 2,230 2,079 1,341 2,438 Equity share capital 283 332 345 345 345

EBITDA margin 13.7% 12.9% 9.3% 5.6% 9.7% Reserves 2,957 4,877 5,795 5,843 6,579

Depreciation 311 386 493 530 572 Minorities - - - 197 197

EBIT 1,397 1,844 1,586 810 1,866 Net worth 3,240 5,209 6,140 6,384 7,120

Interest 233 314 676 845 714 Convertible debt - - - - -

Operating PBT 1,164 1,530 910 (34) 1,152 Other debt 5,544 5,009 7,108 6,508 6,508

Other income 15 60 60 108 57 Total debt 5,544 5,009 7,108 6,508 6,508

Exceptional inc/(exp) 122 (14) 42 - - Deferred tax liability (net) 96 569 729 729 729

PBT 1,301 1,576 1,012 73 1,209 Total liabilities 8,879 10,787 13,976 13,621 14,357

Tax provision 79 473 160 15 302 Assets

Minority interest - - - - - Net fixed assets 5,932 5,783 7,144 8,154 7,782

PAT (Reported) 1,222 1,103 852 59 907 Capital WIP 923 2,076 1,326 214 1,364

Less: Exceptionals 122 (14) 42 - - Total fixed assets 6,855 7,859 8,470 8,367 9,145

Adjusted PAT 1,100 1,116 810 59 907 Investments 375 385 384 384 384

Current assets

Ratios Inventory 1,966 2,553 3,603 4,148 4,133FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E Sundry debtors 2,950 3,625 5,473 5,925 6,200

Growth Loans and advances 2,419 3,081 4,004 3,124 3,269

Operating income (%) 7.3 38.3 29.7 7.3 4.6 Cash & bank balance 330 657 145 574 257

EBITDA (%) NM 30.5 (6.8) (35.5) 81.8 Marketable securities - - - - -

Adj PAT (%) NM 1.5 (27.5) (92.8) 1,444.9 Total current assets 7,665 9,917 13,226 13,771 13,858

Adj EPS (%) NM (13.7) (30.1) (92.8) 1,444.9 Total current liabilities 6,016 7,628 8,386 9,185 9,314

Net current assets 1,650 2,289 4,840 4,586 4,544

Profitability Intangibles/Misc. expenditure - 254 283 283 283

EBITDA margin (%) 13.7 12.9 9.3 5.6 9.7 Total assets 8,879 10,787 13,976 13,621 14,357

Adj PAT Margin (%) 8.8 6.5 3.6 0.2 3.6

RoE (%) 40.6 26.4 14.3 0.9 13.4 Cash flowRoCE (%) 18.4 19.4 13.5 6.2 14.1 (Rs mn) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E

RoIC (%) 19.2 17.3 14.1 8.2 13.5 Pre-tax profit 1,179 1,589 970 73 1,209

Total tax paid - - (0) (15) (302)

Valuations Depreciation 311 386 493 530 572

Price-earnings (x) 3.7 4.5 4.0 55.5 3.6 Working capital changes (1,436) (312) (3,063) 683 (275)

Price-book (x) 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 Net cash from operations 54 1,663 (1,601) 1,271 1,204

EV/EBITDA (x) 5.4 4.2 4.9 7.0 4.0 Cash from investm ents

EV/Sales (x) 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 Capital expenditure (1,059) (1,644) (1,132) (428) (1,350)

Div idend payout ratio (% ) 13.5 17.5 18.8 18.8 18.8 Investments and others 3 (10) 1 - -

Dividend yield (%) 4.0 3.9 4.9 0.3 5.2 Net cash from investm ents (1,056) (1,654) (1,131) (428) (1,350)

Cash from financing

B/S ratios Equity raised/(repaid) - 977 245 - -

Inventory days 73 67 71 67 66 Debt raised/(repaid) 1,296 (535) 2,099 (600) -

Creditors days 165 150 121 123 125 Dividend (incl. tax) (165) (193) (160) (11) (171)

Debtor days 83 73 86 85 86 Others (incl extraordinaries) 130 70 36 197 -

Working capital days 18 31 52 66 60 Net cash from financing 1,261 318 2,220 (414) (171)

Gross asset turnover (x) 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.1 Change in cash position 259 327 (512) 429 (317)

Net asset turnover (x) 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.1 3.2 Closing cash 330 657 145 574 257Sales /operating assets (x ) 1.9 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.9 257

Current ratio (x) 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.5 Quarterly financialsDebt-equity (x) 1.7 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.9 (Rs mn) Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12 Q1FY13 Q2FY13

Net debt/equity (x) 1.6 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.9 Net Sales 5,639 5,149 5,404 6,210 5,831

Interest coverage 6.0 5.9 2.3 1.0 2.6 Change (q-o-q) -1% -9% 5% 15% -6%

EBITDA 565 538 467 477 (2)

Per share Change (q-o-q) -23.2% -4.7% -13.2% 2.0% NMFY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E EBITDA margin 10.0% 10.5% 8.6% 7.7% 0.0%

Adj EPS (Rs) 38.9 33.6 23.5 1.7 26.3 PAT 208 196 50 66 (329)

CEPS 50.0 45.2 37.8 17.1 42.9 Adj PAT 208 196 50 66 (329)

Book value 114.7 156.8 178.1 185.2 206.6 Change (q-o-q) -50% -6% -74% 30% NM

Dividend (Rs) 5.8 5.8 4.6 0.3 4.9 Adj PAT margin 3.7% 3.8% 0.9% 1.1% -5.6%

Actual o/s shares (mn) 28.3 33.2 34.5 34.5 34.5 Adj EPS 6.3 5.7 1.5 1.9 (9.5)


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MAKINGMARKETS

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CRISIL Research Team

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Mukesh Agarwal CRISIL Research +91 22 3342 3035 [email protected]

Analytical Contacts

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Prosenjit Ghosh Associate Director, Industry & Customised Research +91 22 3342 8008 [email protected]

Business DevelopmentEquity Research

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Vishal Shah Regional Manager, Business Development

Email : [email protected] I Phone : +91 9820598908

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Shweta Adukia Regional Manager, Business Development


Chennai / Hyderabad

Sagar Sawarkar Associate Director, Equity Research


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Arjun Gopalkrishnan Regional Manager, Business Development


Kolkata

Priyanka Murarka Regional Manager, Business Development



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PHILLIPS CARBON REPORT BY CRISIL

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Transcript of PHILLIPS CARBON REPORT BY CRISIL