Insecticides CRISIL 040913

7/27/2019 Insecticides CRISIL 040913

1/12

CRISIL IERIndependentEquityResearch

Enhancing investment decisions

Insecticides (India) Ltd

Q1FY14 Results Update


2/12


Explanation of CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation (CFV) matrix

The CFV Matrix (CRISIL Fundamental and Valuation Matrix) addresses the two important analysis of an investment making process Analysis

of Fundamentals (addressed through Fundamental Grade) and Analysis of Returns (Valuation Grade) The fundamental grade is assigned on a

five-point scale from grade 5 (indicating Excellent fundamentals) to grade 1 (Poor fundamentals) The valuation grade is assigned on a five-

point scale from grade 5 (indicating strong upside from the current market price (CMP)) to grade 1 (strong downside from the CMP).

CRISILFundamental Grade Assessment

CRISILValuation Grade Assessment

5/5 Excellent fundamentals 5/5 Strong upside (>25% from CMP)

4/5 Superior fundamentals 4/5 Upside (10-25% from CMP)

3/5 Good fundamentals 3/5 Align (+-10% from CMP)

2/5 Moderate fundamentals 2/5 Downside (negative 10-25% from CMP)

1/5 Poor fundamentals 1/5 Strong downside (


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Insecticides (India) LtdStrong growth in the formulations business

Fundamental Grade 3/5 (Good fundamentals)

Valuation Grade 5/5 (CMP has strong upside)

Industry Chemicals

1

August 29, 2013

Fair Value 395

CMP 303

For detailed initiating coverage report please visit: www.ier.co.in

CRISIL Independent Equity Research reports are also available on Bloomberg (CRI ) and Thomson Reuters.

Insecticides (India) Ltds (Insecticides) Q1FY14 results were marginally better than CRISIL

Researchs estimates. While revenues grew 32.8% y-o-y, adjusted PAT increased by 20.9%

y-o-y. EBITDA margin declined by 135 bps y-o-y, as expected. The overall demand for

Insecticides products looks promising owing to good rains so far. We will continue to monitor

the monsoons; continued good rainfall should drive the demand for agrochemicals in Q2. We

maintain the fundamental grade of3/5.

Revenues up 32.8% y-o-y; enhanced technicals capacity to fuel future growth

Revenues grew 32.8% y-o-y primarily led by volume growth. Revenues from the formulations

segment (92% of revenues) grew 40% y-o-y, while the technicals segment s revenues grew

19%. The company has been able to stabilise the product quality at its Dahej facility during

the quarter. Though the current capacity utilisation rate is 40%, the management intends to

ramp-up the capacity utilisation to 50% in FY14.

Sowing higher than historical average due to better rainfall; eases growth concerns

The cumulative rainfall during FY14 monsoons up to August 16, 2013 has been 13% abovelong period average (LPA). Rainfall was above normal levels across regions except East and

North-east India, where it was 32% below LPA. Sowing data released by the Ministry of

Agriculture indicates that crop sowing at the all-India level is 6% above historical average. We

believe that normal rains for the rest of the monsoon season will be beneficial for crops and

will aid higher consumption of agrochemicals in Q2.

EBITDA margin contracted 135 bps y-o-y; expect 12% margin going forward

EBITDA margin contracted by 135 bps y-o-y. Higher other expenses due to higher

provisioning for debtors pulled down EBITDA margin. Higher raw material cost owing to

rupee depreciation was partially offset by: a) 5-7% price hike taken by the management and

b) higher consumption of in-house technicals. We expect Insecticides to maintain its EBITDA

margin at 12%, as we expect the recent price hike, operating leverage and higher

consumption of in-house technicals to offset the impact of rupee depreciation. However, any

further (significant) depreciation in the rupee could have an adverse impact on margin and is

a key monitorable.

We maintain our FY14 and FY15 estimates as well as the fair value

We maintain our earnings estimate for FY14 and FY15. We also maintain our discounted

cash flow-based fair value at 395 per share for Insecticides. At the current market price of

303, our valuation grade is 5/5.

KEY FORECAST

( mn) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

Operating income 4,501 5,217 6,167 7,090 8,067

EBITDA 438 565 693 872 1,008

Adj net income 323 330 353 440 549

Adj EPS () 25.5 26.0 27.8 34.7 43.3EPS growth (%) 14.4 2.3 6.9 24.6 24.8

Dividend yield (%) 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.7

RoCE (%) 25.3 20.6 16.8 18.2 19.8

RoE (%) 23.6 20.0 18.1 19.0 20.0

PE (x) 11.9 11.7 10.9 8.7 7.0

P/BV (x) 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.3

EV/EBITDA (x) 9.6 9.3 8.4 6.5 5.5

NM: Not meaningful; CMP: Current market price

Source: Company, CRISIL Research estimates

CFV MATRIX

KEY STOCK STATISTICSNIFTY/SENSEX 5409/18401

NSE/BSE tickerINSECTICID

/INSECTCID

Face value ( per share) 10

Shares outstanding (mn) 12.7

Market cap ( mn)/(US$ mn) 3,849/57

Enterprise value ( mn)/(US$ mn) 5,851/86

52-week range ()/(H/L) 448/298

Beta 1.1

Free float (%) 25.3%Avg daily volumes (30-days) 12,067

Avg daily value (30-days) ( mn) 4.4

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN

PERFORMANCE VIS--VIS MARKET

Returns

1-m 3-m 6-m 12-m

INSECTICIDES -19% -23% -23% -23%

NIFTY -7% -11% -5% 2%

ANALYTICAL CONTACTMohit Modi (Director) [email protected]

Prateek S Chauhan [email protected]

Bhaskar Bukrediwala [email protected]

Client servicing desk

+91 22 3342 3561 [email protected]

1 2 3 4 5

1

2

3

4

5

Valuation Grade

FundamentalGrade

Poor

Fundamentals

ExcellentFundamentals

Stron

g

Downs

ide

Stron

g

Upsid

e

74.7% 74.7% 74.7% 74.7%

5.9% 5.9% 6.2% 6.2%2.3% 3.5% 5.3% 5.5%

17.1% 15.9% 13.8% 13.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13

Promoter FII DII Others
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


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2

Q1FY14 Results Summary

( mn) Q1FY14 Q4FY13 Q1FY13 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%)

Operating income 1,976 1,190 1,488 66.1 32.8Raw material cost 1,339 711 1,005 88.2 33.1

Raw material cost (% of op. income) 67.7% 59.8% 67.6% 797bps 18bps

Employee cost 62 94 47 (33.9) 33.0

Other expenses 328 297 229 10.3 42.9

EBITDA 248 88 207 181.6 19.9

EBITDA margin 12.6% 7.4% 13.9% 515bps -135bps

Depreciation 16 15 12 7.9 35.8

EBIT 232 73 195 217.5 18.9

Interest and finance charges 52 11 47 364.3 10.2

Operating PBT 180 62 148 190.9 21.7

Other income 0 1 1 (33.3) NM

PBT 180 62 149 188.8 20.9Tax 39 47 32 (17.4) 21.1

PAT 142 16 117 796.8 20.9

Adj PAT 142 16 117 796.8 20.9

Adj PAT margin 7.2% 1.3% 7.9% 584bps -70bps

No. of equity shares (mn) 13 13 13 - -

Adj EPS () 11.2 1.2 9.2 796.8 20.9

Source: Company, CRISIL Research

Revenues grew 32.8% y-o-y Weak operating performance = PAT margin contracted y-o-y

Source: Company, CRISIL Research Source: Company, CRISIL Research

1,218

2,097

1,055

847

1,488

2,300

1,188

1,190

1,976

10.4%11.5%

7.5%8.0%

13.9%

12.7%

8.9%

7.4%

12.6%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12

Q1FY13

Q2FY13

Q3FY13

Q4FY13

Q1FY14

( mn)

Revenue EBITDA margin (RHS)

91 164 48 28 117 174 4616

142

7.4%7.8%

4.6%

3.3%

7.9%7.5%

3.9%

1.3%

7.2%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%8%

9%

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Q1FY12

Q2FY12

Q3FY12

Q4FY12

Q1FY13

Q2FY13

Q3FY13

Q4FY13

Q1FY14

( mn)

PAT PAT margin (RHS)

Revenues grew by 32.8%

y-o-y aided by higher

volumes

Higher provisioning resulted

in lower EBITDA margin and,

consequently, lower PAT

margin


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3

Share price movement Fair value movement since initiation

-Indexed to 100

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, BSE, CRISIL Research

0

100

200

300

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600

Jan-08

Apr-08

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Insecticides NIFTY

0

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A

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('000)()

Total Traded Quantity (RHS) CRISIL Fair Value

Insecticides


6/12


4

Key Developments

Good rainfall

The cumulative rainfall for India during the FY14 monsoon season up to August 16, 2013 has

been 13% above LPA. Rainfall was above normal levels across regions except East and

North-east India, where it was 32% below LPA. The key pesticide consuming states of Andhra

Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Haryana and Maharashtra have received excess rainfall.

Table 1: Rainfall in East and North-east India has been below normal levels

Regions Actual rainfall (mm) Normal rainfall (mm) Deviation from LPA

North-west India* 484.9 397.3 22%

Central India* 860.2 638.7 35%

South Peninsula* 571.4 464.1 23%

East & North-east India* 648.0 950.6 -32%

Country as a whole 654.3 579.9 13%

*North-west India - Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Uttaranchal, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir.

Central India - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Gujarat

South Peninsula - Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry, Kerala and Lakshadweep

East and North-east India - Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram,

Tripura, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands

Source: IMD, CRISIL Research

Out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, 17 have received excess rainfall, 13 normal rainfall and

six deficient rainfall (Arunachal Pradesh; Assam and Meghalaya; Nagaland, Manipur Mizoram

and Tripura; Jharkhand, Bihar; Haryana; Chandigarh and Delhi).

Normal monsoons will encourage more sowing during the kharif season. However, excessive

rainfall could lead to flooding and crop losses, thus adversely impacting agrochemical

consumption.

... resulted in higher sowing

As of August, overall sowing during the kharif season is higher by 6% compared to the

historical average. Sowing of key pesticide-consuming crops such as paddy is normal while

soyabean sowing is significantly higher in 2013. Sowing for pulses, cotton and coarse cereals

is also moderately higher than average as of August 3, 2013. Normal monsoons over East

and North-east India going forward may result in increased sowing which, in turn, will result in

higher demand for agrochemicals.

Table 2: Sowing 6% higher than historical average aided by good rainfall

Crop

Historical average

for the season

Historical average

area as of 2-Aug

This year as of 2-

Aug-13

% departure from

average

Sowing in lakh hectares

Rice 392.2 239.2 238.9 0%

Coarse cereals 213.2 160.4 163.1 2%

Pulses 110.8 73.8 79.5 8%

Soyabean 95.7 92.9 118.8 28%

Cotton 104.7 103.6 108.5 5%

All crops 1059.3 776.2 820.0 6%

Source: Ministry of Agriculture


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5

Valuation Grade: 5/5

We continue to use the discounted cash flow method to value Insecticides and maintain the

fair value at 395. At this value, the implied P/E multiples are 11.4x FY14 and 9.1x FY15

earnings estimates. Based on the current market price, the assigned valuation grade is 5/5.

One-year forward P/E band One-year forward EV/EBITDA band

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

P/E premium / discount to Nifty P/E movement

Source: NSE, CRISIL Research Source: NSE, CRISIL Research

0

50100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jun-08

Oct-08

Mar-09

Jul-09

Nov-09

Apr-10

Aug-10

Jan-11

May-11

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()

insecticides 2x 4x

6x 10x 12x

0

1,000

2,0003,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Jun-08

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Mar-09

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Aug-10

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( mn)

EV 4x 6x 8x 10x

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

Jun-08

Oct-08

Mar-09

Jul-09

Nov-09

Apr-10

Aug-10

Jan-11

May-11

Oct-11

Feb-12

Jul-12

Nov-12

Apr-13

Aug-13

Premium/Discount to NIFTY

Median premium/discount to NIFTY

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Jun-08

Oct-08

Mar-09

Jul-09

Nov-09

Apr-10

Aug-10

Jan-11

May-11

Oct-11

Feb-12

Jul-12

Nov-12

Apr-13

Aug-13

(Times)

1yr Fwd PE (x) Median PE

+1 std dev

-1 std dev


8/12


6

CRISIL IER reports released on Insecticides (India) Ltd

Date Nature of report

Fundamental

grade Fair value

Valuation

grade

CMP

(on the date of report)08-July-11 Initiating coverage 3/5 338 3/5 335

18-Aug-11 Q1FY12 result update 3/5 338 3/5 360

29-Nov-11 Q2FY12 result update 3/5 338 2/5 416

19-Dec-11 Management Meet Update 3/5 385 3/5 397

24-Feb-12 Q3FY12 result update 3/5 385 3/5 419

10-Jul-12 Detailed report 3/5 395 3/5 399


27-Nov-12 Q2FY13 result update 3/5 395 3/5 406

15-Mar-13 Q3FY13 result update 3/5 395 3/5 401

03-Jun-13 Q4FY13 result update 3/5 395 3/5 396

15-Jul-13 Detailed report 3/5 395 3/5 391



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7

Annexure: Financials

Source: CRISIL Research

Income statement Balance Sheet

( mn) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E ( mn) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15EOperating income 4,501 5,217 6,167 7,090 8,067 Liabilities

EBITDA 438 565 693 872 1,008 Equity share capital 127 127 127 127 127

EBITDA margin 9.7% 10.8% 11.2% 12.3% 12.5% Reserves 1,386 1,664 1,995 2,387 2,862

Depreciation 15 24 58 93 104 Minorities - - - - -

EBIT 423 542 636 779 904 Networth 1,513 1,791 2,122 2,514 2,989

Interest 10 111 174 220 205 Convertible debt - - - - -

Operating PBT 413 430 462 559 699 Other debt 380 1,585 2,049 1,885 1,760

Other income (0) (1) 2 3 3 Total debt 380 1,585 2,049 1,885 1,760

Exceptional inc/(exp) (1) (0) - - - Deferred tax liability (net) 20 29 102 29 29

PBT 412 429 464 562 702 Total liabilities 1,913 3,405 4,273 4,429 4,778

Tax provision 90 99 111 123 153 Assets

Minority interest - - - - - Net f ixed assets 313 487 1,712 1,737 1,733

PAT (Reported) 322 330 353 440 549 Capital WIP 592 940 140 140 140

Less: Exceptionals (1) (0) - - - Total fixed assets 905 1,428 1,852 1,877 1,873

Adjusted PAT 323 330 353 440 549 Investments - 0 0 0 0Current assets

Ratios Inventory 1,258 2,024 2,254 2,324 2,644

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E Sundry debtors 806 892 1,165 1,399 1,591

Growth Loans and advances 263 405 978 567 645

Operating income (%) 19.2 15.9 18.2 15.0 13.8 Cash & bank balance 37 177 47 40 46

EBITDA (%) 28.7 29.0 22.6 25.8 15.6 Marketable securities 1 0 0 0 0

Adj PAT (%) 14.4 2.3 6.9 24.6 24.8 Total current assets 2,364 3,499 4,444 4,329 4,927

Adj EPS (%) 14.4 2.3 6.9 24.6 24.8 Total current liabilities 1,357 1,547 2,049 1,803 2,047

Net current assets 1,007 1,952 2,395 2,526 2,880

Profitability Intangibles/Misc. expenditure 2 25 25 25 25

EBITDA margin (%) 9.7 10.8 11.2 12.3 12.5 Total assets 1,913 3,405 4,273 4,429 4,778

Adj PAT Margin (%) 7.2 6.3 5.7 6.2 6.8

RoE (%) 23.6 20.0 18.1 19.0 20.0 Cash flow

RoCE (%) 25.3 20.6 16.8 18.2 19.8 ( mn) FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E

RoIC (%) 20.7 17.5 14.4 15.6 16.7 Pre-tax profit 413 430 464 562 702Total tax paid (86) (91) (38) (195) (153)

Valuations Depreciation 15 24 58 93 104

Price-earnings (x) 11.9 11.7 10.9 8.7 7.0 Working capital changes 29 (805) (574) (138) (347)

Price-book (x) 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.3 Net cash from operations 371 (443) (90) 322 306

EV/EBITDA (x) 9.6 9.3 8.4 6.5 5.5 Cash from investments

EV/Sales (x) 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 Capital expenditure (596) (570) (482) (118) (100)

Dividend payout ratio (%) 9.8 9.6 8.5 9.3 11.6 Investments and others 49 0 - - -

Dividend yield (%) 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.7 Net cash from investm ents (546) (570) (482) (118) (100)

Cash from financing

B/S rat ios Equity raised/(repaid) - - - - -

Inventory days 139 192 150 165 165 Debt raised/(repaid) 161 1,205 463 (163) (125)

Creditors days 119 118 87 102 103 Dividend (incl. tax) (37) (37) (35) (48) (75)

Debtor days 65 64 65 68 68 Others (incl extraordinaries) 1 (15) 13 0 0

Working capital days 79 124 139 128 128 Net cash from financing 125 1,153 442 (211) (200)

Gross asset turnover ( x) 13.8 11.4 5.2 3.7 4.0 Change in cash position (50) 140 (131) (7) 7Net asset turnover (x) 15.9 13.0 5.6 4.1 4.7 Closing cash 37 177 47 40 46

Sales /operating assets (x) 7.3 4.5 3.8 3.8 4.3

Current ratio (x) 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.4 Quarterly financials

Debt-equity (x) 0.3 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.6 ( mn) Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 Q1FY14

Net debt/equity (x) 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 Operating income 1,488 2,300 1,188 1,190 1,976

Interest coverage 42.8 4.9 3.7 3.5 4.4 Change (y-o-y) 76% 55% -48% 0% 66%

EBITDA 207 293 105 88 248

Per share Change (y-o-y) 207% 41% -64% -16% 182%

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E EBITDA margin 13.9% 12.7% 8.9% 7.4% 12.6%

Adj EPS () 25.5 26.0 27.8 34.7 43.3 PAT 117 174 46 16 142

CEPS 26.7 27.9 32.4 42.0 51.5 Adj PAT 117 174 46 16 142

Book value 119.3 141.2 167.3 198.2 235.6 Change (y-o-y) 324% 48% -73% -66% 797%

Dividend () 2.5 2.5 2.4 3.2 5.0 Adj PAT margin 7.9% 7.5% 3.9% 1.3% 7.2%

Actual o/s shares (mn) 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 Adj EPS 9.2 13.7 3.7 1.2 11.2


10/12


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Insecticides CRISIL 040913

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