Petrochemical Round Up - October 2011[1]
Transcript of Petrochemical Round Up - October 2011[1]
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Petrochemicals Round Up
CONTENTSNews, Update & Analysis 1Index Performance 2Commodity Price Monitor 3Commodity Performance Charts 4Price Oil, Gas and Naphtha 4Price & Margins Basic Petrochemicals 5Price & Margins Ethylene and Propylene Derivatives 6Price & Margins Methanol and Derivatives 7Price & Margins Vinyls and Derivatives 7Prices- Grains & Fertilizers 8Prices- Commodity Index and Metals 9Monthly Crude Steel production (000 tonnes) 10Price Performance- GCC Petrochemical Companies and Indices 11GCC Petrochemical Companies- Price Performance Charts 12Relative Valuation Chemical Universe 13Company Forward Valuation Charts- PE and PBV 14Major GCC Listed Petrochemical Companies- Product Portfolio 16GCC Petrochemical Industry - Project Monitor 17
News, Update & AnalysisSABIC leads Saudi Petrochemical companies 3Q11 earnings growthSaudi Arabias petrochemical companies 3Q11 earnings increased 66% YoY and5% QoQ led by SABIC, reporting SAR 8.2bn in 3Q11 earnings; 2% aboveconsensus estimate. Overall, performance of regional petrochemical companieswere mixed with APC, Chemanol, SAFCO, SABIC and SIPCHEM reporting betterthan expected earnings while other stocks such as IQCD, Sahara, Tasnee, SIIG,Yansab, Rabigh and Kayan disappointed during the quarter.
Weakness in polymer prices affected QoQ performance of APC, Yansab andSahara petrochemicals, and was one of the reasons for lower than estimatedearnings for Tasnee during the quarter.
Exhibit 1: Petchem earnings snapshot versus estimates
CompanyM.Cap
(USD mn) 3Q11 2Q11 3Q10 YoY QoQ3Q11Cons Var (%)
Sabic 75,996 8,185 8,101 5,326 54% 1% 8,033 2%
Safco 12,299 1,211 790 604 100% 53% 1,076 13%
Kayan 7,080 (35) (16) (5) NM NM (14) NM
Yansab 6,615 828 964 356 132% -14% 902 -8%
Tasnee 5,856 725 594 373 94% 22% 749 -3%
Rabigh 5,302 (281) (402) (237) NM NM 198 NM
Petrochem 2,752 (13) (12) (3) NM NM (13) NM
SIIG 2,304 143 147 46 212% -3% 194 -26%
Sipchem 1,916 208 165 84 148% 26% 183 14%
Sahara 1,494 98 209 69 42% -53% 154 -37%
APC 1,044 135 156 121 12% -13% 123 10%
Chemanol 375 27 11 (16) NM 151% 14 94%Alujain 327 23 (19) 16 39% NM NA NM
Nama 314 (29) 17 13 NM NM NA NM
S au di Pet ch ems 12 3, 67 3 11,225 10,703 6,747 66% 5%IQCD 19,182 2,074 2,076 1,425 46% 0% 2,206 -6%
(local currency mn)
Source: Bloomberg, SICO Research
www.sicobahrain.com
SICOResearch
SICO 2011 All Rights ReservedAttention is drawn to the disclaimer and other information on 18
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Petrochemicals Round UpSaudi Petrochem Index (SASEPETR) increased 2.2% since our last update on September 15 th, 2011 outperforming
both S&P 500 Chemical Index and Tadawul, which increased 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively during this period.
SASEPETRs outperformance was largely led by SABIC, which increased 3.5% during this period after reportingstrong 3Q11 earnings.
Index PerformanceSASEPETR vs S&P 500 Chemical Index vs Tadawul
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan
-07
Mar-
07
May
-07
Jul-07
Sep
-07
Nov
-07
Jan
-08
Mar-
08
May
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Jul-08
Aug
-08
Oct-
08
Dec
-08
Fe
b-0
9
Apr-
09
Jun
-09
Aug
-09
Oct-
09
Dec
-09
Fe
b-1
0
Apr-
10
Jun
-10
Aug
-10
Oct-
10
Dec
-10
Fe
b-1
1
Apr-
11
Jun
-11
Aug
-11
Oct-
11
SASEPETR INDEX S5CHEM INDEX SASEIDX INDEX
Source: Bloomberg Note: Rebased to 100 as at Jan, 2007
Saudi Chemanol halted operations for 12 daysSaudi Chemanol halted operations in its methanol and dimethylformamide plants for 12 days in order to implementsome technical improvements to boost the two plants' productivity. The company expects the impact on its 4Q11financials to be limited, as it has enough inventories to meet its commitments. The company restarted operations onOctober 24th after successfully finishing improvements.
Saudi Kayan begins commercial production at Jubail plantSaudi Kayan has begun commercial production at the company's petrochemical complex in Jubail Industrial City.Most of the production plant's units are now operational, including the companys 350,000 ton -per-year (t/y)polypropylene plant, 400,000 t/y polyethylene plant, 260,000 t/y polycarbonate plant, and 566,000 t/y ethyleneglycol plant. Once fully operational, the complex will have an overall capacity of 4mn t/y. The move is expected tohave an impact on the company's financial performance in 4Q11.
Borouge III to be fully operational by mid-2014The third phase of Abu Dhabi-based polymer producer, Borouge, being built at an estimated cost of USD 4.5bn willbe completed on schedule by end 2013 with plant fully operational by mid-2014. The combined production capacityof Borouge I and II is two million metric tonnes a year. By mid-2014, when Borouge III comes on stream, Borouge'scapacity will increase to 4.5 million tonnes a year, making it the single-largest polyolefins plant in the world.
Petro Rabigh likely to sell more shares to fund expansionRabigh intends to sell additional shares to existing and new investors in order to fund a plan to double itspetrochemical output. According to MEED, Rabigh has received all bids for the engineering, procurement andconstruction contracts for the USD 5-8bn Rabigh II upgrade project set to double chemical capacity to over 4 mntonnes pa. A final investment decision is likely by end-2011 and the financing will be arranged Q1 2012.
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Petrochemicals Round UpCommodity Price Monitor
C u r r e n t2 8 - O c t - 1 1
WTI Crude ($/bbl) 93.32 87.2 7.0% 86.5 7.9% 91.4 2.1% 79.2 17.8% 95.7 -2.5% 81.4 14.6%
Natural Gas( $/mcf) 3.63 3.55 2.3% 4.10 -11.5% 4.23 -14.2% 3.67 -1.1% 4.26 -14.8% 3.35 8.4%
Naphtha($/mt) 877 884 -0.8% 974 -10.0% 877 0.0% 901 -2.7% 999 -12.2% 768 14.1%
Ethylene($/mt) 985 985 0.0% 1,065 -7.5% 1,145 -14.0% 1,020 -3.4% 1,110 -11.3% 1,015 -3.0%
Propylene($/mt) 1,240 1,240 0.0% 1,510 -17.9% 1,220 1.6% 1,380 -10.1% 1,510 -17.9% 1,110 11.7%
Benzene($/mt) 980 980 0.0% 1,160 -15.5% 1,030 -4.9% 1,035 -5.3% 1,210 - 19.0% 940 4.3%
Butadiene($/mt) 2,010 2,010 0.0% 3,590 -44.0% 2,020 -0.5% 2,640 -23.9% 3,930 -48.9% 1,970 2.0%
HDPE($/mt) 1,315 1,315 0.0% 1,370 -4.0% 1,260 4.4% 1,345 -2.2% 1,405 -6.4% 1,265 4.0%
LDPE($/mt) 1,425 1,425 0.0% 1,530 -6.9% 1,660 -14.2% 1,480 -3.7% 1,570 -9.2% 1,575 -9.5%
LLDPE($/mt) 1,205 1,205 0.0% 1,320 -8.7% 1,360 -11.4% 1,240 -2.8% 1,395 -13.6% 1,325 -9.1%
PP($/mt) 1,375 1,375 0.0% 1,545 -11.0% 1,470 -6.5% 1,460 -5.8% 1,600 - 14.1% 1,390 -1.1%
PS($/mt) 1,660 1,660 0.0% 1,810 -8.3% 1,485 11.8% 1,745 -4.9% 1,790 -7.3% 1,450 14.5%
PVC($/mt) 895 895 0.0% 1,100 -18.6% 1,015 -11.8% 970 -7.7% 1,120 -20.1% 1,010 -11.4%
Methanol($/ton) 415 415 0.0% 390 6.4% 355 16.9% 415 0.0% 400 3.8% 345 20.3%
MEG($/mt) 1,120 1,120 0.0% 1,280 -12.5% 1,095 2.3% 1,230 -8.9% 1,230 -8.9% 960 16.7%
Styrene ($/mt) 1,285 1,285 0.0% 1,490 -13.8% 1,360 -5.5% 1,390 -7.6% 1,545 -16.8% 1,245 3.2%
EDC ($/mt) 320 320 0.0% 445 -28.1% 485 -34.0% 405 -21.0% 455 -29.7% 565 -43.4%
VCM ($/mt) 755 755 0.0% 875 -13.7% 915 -17.5% 825 -8.5% 920 -17.9% 875 -13.7%
PTA ($/mt) 1,090 1,090 0.0% 1,305 -16.5% 1,235 - 11.7% 1,215 - 10.3% 1,225 -11.0% 1,060 2.8%
Fe r t i l i ze r sAmmonia($/ton) 550 545 0.9% 500 10.0% 395 39.2% 540 1.9% 480 14.6% 410 34.1%
Urea($/ton) 510 500 2.0% 506 0.8% 385 32.5% 520 -1.9% 500 2.0% 355 43.7%
DAP($/MT) 630 635 -0.8% 648 -2.7% 595 5.9% 635 -0.8% 670 -6.0% 573 10.0%
M e t a l sTurkey Steel Rebar($/t) 678 679 -0.2% 716 -5.4% 650 4.2% 718 -5.6% 755 -10.3% 573 18.3%China expt billet($/t) 753 738 2.0% 876 -14.1% 786 -4.2% 798 -5.7% 873 -13.8% 739 1.8%
China Iron ore ($/t) 157 169 -7.2% 185 -15.0% 176 -10.7% 184 -14.6% 182 -13.6% 156 0.3%
Aluminium($/t) 2,223 2,104 5.7% 2,400 -7.3% 2,461 -9.7% 2,124 4.7% 2,597 -14.4% 2,316 -4.0%
%c h a n g e1 w e e ka g o %c h a n g e B e g . O fQ tr %c h a n g e Y T DP e r f . %c h a n g e 1 m t ha g o %c h a n g e 3 m t h sa g o %c h a n g e 1 y e a ra g o
Source: Bloomberg, LME, Polymer update, SICO Research
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Petrochemicals Round UpCommodity Performance Charts
.
7%
1%
20%
-9%
15%
-3%
7%
38%
33%
47%
18%
-50% 0% 50% 100%
WTI CRUDE
NYMEX GAS
NAPHTHA
ETHYLENE
PROPYLENE
LDPE
PP
METHANOL
AMMONIA
UREA
REBAR
Av erage Price: MTD vs. Same Pe riodLas t Year
9.7%
-2.4%
24.2%
-5.7%
14.9%
0.0%
8.7%
43.9%
39.7%
53.8%
17.4%
-50% 0% 50% 100%
WTI CRUDE
NYMEX GAS
NAPHTHA
ETHYLENE
PROPYLENE
LDPE
PP
METHANOL
AMMONIA
UREA
REBAR
Av erage Price: QTD vs. SamePer iod Last Year
21.8%
-10.4%
35.8%
8.5%
23.9%
12.8%
20.8%
33.4%
44.8%
58.4%
22.9%
-50% 0% 50% 100%
WTI CRUDE
NYMEX GAS
NAPHTHA
ETHYLENE
PROPYLENE
LDPE
PP
METHANOL
AMMONIA
UREA
REBAR
Av erage Price: YTD vs. Same PeriodLas t Year
Source: Bloomberg, SICO Research
Commodity prices & indicative margins for week ended October 28, 2011Price Oil, Gas and Naphtha
Naphtha
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-0
6
May-0
6
Sep-0
6
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-0
8
May-0
8
Sep-0
8
Jan-0
9
May-0
9
Sep-0
9
Jan-1
0
May-1
0
Sep-1
0
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
WTI CRUDE($/bbl)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-0
6
May-0
6
Sep-0
6
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-0
8
May-0
8
Sep-0
8
Jan-0
9
May-0
9
Sep-0
9
Jan-1
0
May-1
0
Sep-1
0
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
NYMEX GAS($/mcf)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Jan-05
Jun-05
Nov-05
Apr-06
Sep-0
6
Feb-07
Jul-07
Dec-07
May-0
8
Oct-08
Mar-09
Aug-0
9
Jan-1
0
Jun-1
0
Nov-1
0
Apr-11
Sep-11
NAPHTHA ($/MT)
Source: Bloomberg, SICO Research
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Petrochemicals Round UpPrice & Margins Basic Petrochemicals
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700800
900
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,4001,600
1,800
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-0
6
May-0
6
Sep-0
6
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-0
8
May-0
8
Sep-0
8
Jan-0
9
May-0
9
Sep-0
9
Jan-1
0
May-1
0
Sep-1
0
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Ethylene ($/MT)
Price(LHS) Margins(RHS)
(100)0100200300400500600700800
900
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-0
6
May-0
6
Sep-0
6
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-0
8
May-0
8
Sep-0
8
Jan-0
9
May-0
9
Sep-0
9
Jan-1
0
May-1
0
Sep-1
0
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Propylene ($/MT)
Price(LHS) Margins(RHS)
(500)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-0
6
May-0
6
Sep-0
6
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-0
8
May-0
8
Sep-0
8
Jan-0
9
May-0
9
Sep-0
9
Jan-1
0
May-1
0
Sep-1
0
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Butadiene ($/MT)
Price(LHS) Margins(RHS)
(100.0)
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0700.0
800.0
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
Benzene ($/MT)
Prices(LHS) Margins(RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, SICO Research
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Petrochemicals Round UpPrice & Margins Ethylene and Propylene Derivatives
Source: Bloomberg, SICO Research
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Petrochemicals Round UpPrice & Margins Methanol and Derivatives
(400)
(300)
(200)
(100)
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-0
6
May-0
6
Sep-0
6
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-0
8
May-0
8
Sep-0
8
Jan-0
9
May-0
9
Sep-0
9
Jan-1
0
May-1
0
Sep-1
0
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
METHANOL ($/MT)
Pri ce(LHS) Margins(RHS )
(200)
(100)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-0
6
May-0
6
Sep-0
6
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-0
8
May-0
8
Sep-0
8
Jan-0
9
May-0
9
Sep-0
9
Jan-1
0
May-1
0
Sep-1
0
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
MTBE ($/MT)
Pri ce(LHS) Margins(RHS )
Source: Bloomberg, SICO Research
Price & Margins Vinyls and Derivatives
(150)
(100)
(50)
0
50
100150
200
250
300
350
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Ja0
Ma0
S0
Ja0
Ma0
S0
Ja0
Ma0
S0
Ja0
Ma0
S0
Ja0
Ma0
S0
Ja1
Ma1
S1
Ja1
Ma1
S1
VCM($/MT)
Prices(LHS) Margins(RHS)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Ja0
Ma0
S0
Ja0
Ma0
S0
Ja0
Ma0
S0
Ja0
Ma0
S0
Ja0
Ma0
S0
Ja1
Ma1
S1
Ja1
Ma1
S1
PVC ($/MT)
Prices(LHS) Margins(RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, SICO Research
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Petrochemicals Round UpPrices- Commodity Index and Metals
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Ja
n-05
Ma
y-05
Se
p-05
Ja
n-0
6
Ma
y-0
6
Se
p-0
6
Ja
n-07
Ma
y-07
Se
p-07
Ja
n-0
8
Ma
y-0
8
Se
p-0
8
Ja
n-0
9
Ma
y-0
9
Se
p-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Ja
n-11
Ma
y-11
Se
p-11
CRB CMDT INDEX
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
De
c-05
Ap
r-06
Aug-0
6
De
c-0
6
Ap
r-07
Aug-07
De
c-07
Ap
r-08
Aug-0
8
De
c-0
8
Ap
r-09
Aug-0
9
De
c-0
9
Ap
r-10
Aug-1
0
De
c-1
0
Ap
r-11
Aug-11
TURKEY EXP. STEEL REBAR ($/MT)
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
STEEL CHINA IRON ORE ($/MT)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-0
6
May-0
6
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-0
8
May-0
8
Sep-08
Jan-0
9
May-0
9
Sep-09
Jan-1
0
May-1
0
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
$/MT
ALUMINIUM ($/ MT)
Source: Bloomberg, SICO Research
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Petrochemicals Round UpMonthly Crude Steel production (000 tonnes)
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Qa t a r
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Sau di Arabia
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
E g yp t
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mid dle Eas t
2009 2010 2011 Growth(2010/09) Growth(2011/10)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
W o r l d
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Turkey
Source: IISI, SICO ResearchNote Middle East includes Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Iran.
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Petrochemicals Round UpPrice Performance- GCC Petrochemical Companies and Indices
Name Price Crncy 3 Mo. Avg Daily1 Day 1 week 1 month 1 year Low High Turnover ($mn)Middle East
SABIC 98.25 SAR 3.4% 5.6% 6.2% 1.3% 82.5 114.0 185
SAFCO 185.25 SAR 0.7% 1.1% 1.8% 27.3% 142.3 194.3 6
SIPCHEM 20.05 SAR 2.0% 4.7% 11.1% -11.4% 15.9 26.1 7
Ind. Qatar 129.90 QAR 2.3% 3.2% 4.8% 12.0% 113.8 154.5 13
Saudi Kayan 18.10 SAR 2.0% 5.2% 6.5% 2.5% 14.0 20.3 25
CHEMANOL 11.75 SAR 0.9% 0.4% 2.6% -16.1% 10.1 16.8 4
PetroRabigh 22.85 SAR 1.1% 0.0% -6.5% 1.1% 18.3 30.1 12
YANSAB 45.00 SAR 2.0% 2.3% -0.4% 6.6% 37.5 53.5 18
APPC 27.90 SAR 0.7% 0.0% -2.8% 7.7% 22.5 35.7 7
ALCO 17.95 SAR 1.1% -1.1% -4.0% -6.3% 15.5 25.0 6
NIC 40.40 SAR 2.0% 1.8% 2.5% 42.9% 25.6 45.2 17
SIIG 19.55 SAR 1.6% 0.3% 0.5% 3.4% 15.8 28.0 6
Sahara Petro. 19.65 SAR 2.6% 3.4% -6.0% -15.5% 14.9 27.6 13
Nama Chem. 9.30 SAR 1.6% 1.1% 0.0% -7.5% 8.2 12.8 5
Boubyan Petro 560.00 KWD 0.0% 0.0% -1.8% 1.8% 470.0 620.0 0
Al Qurain 222.00 KWD -0.9% -0.9% 1.8% -7.5% 166.0 238.0 0
North AmericaWestlake 43.14 USD 0.9% 14.6% 25.8% 35.0% 31.3 67.8 20
Dow 29.25 USD 0.5% 7.4% 30.2% -5.2% 20.6 42.2 367
Eastman 41.92 USD 4.7% 11.9% 22.3% 6.7% 32.4 55.4 94
Methanex 26.59 USD -0.4% 6.1% 27.6% -4.2% 19.5 34.9 8
Ashland Inc. 55.57 USD 1.1% 13.2% 25.9% 7.6% 41.1 69.5 58
EuropeYara 271.30 NOK -1.5% 6.0% 19.2% -11.9% 200.5 352.5 119
Akzo Nobel 39.47 EUR 1.1% 5.8% 18.4% -7.5% 29.3 53.7 32
BASF 54.66 EUR 0.4% 8.5% 19.2% 4.2% 42.2 70.2 233
AsiaHonam 323,000.0 KRW 1.6% 11.8% 11.0% 30.2% 218,000.0 475,500.0 103
Sumitomo 306.00 JPY 3.0% 10.5% 1.7% -12.8% 273.0 472.0 38
Taiwan Fert. 80.00 TWD 2.3% 11.4% 6.5% -23.4% 66.6 118.0 22
Formosa Plast. 89.30 TWD 1.4% 4.4% 9.3% 1.7% 76.0 117.0 32
IndicesSASEPETR 6,367.92 2.4% 3.6% 3.5% 6.4% 5,086.5 7,122.0
S5CHEM 314.76 0.1% 5.5% 22.0% 10.2% 245.5 344.5SASEIDX 6,235.64 1.4% 2.1% 2.0% -1.9% 5,231.5 6,795.3
DSM 8,535.68 0.8% 2.1% 1.3% 9.4% 7,489.3 9,290.2
Source: Bloomberg
Price change (%) Price (52-Week)
Source: Bloomberg.
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Petrochemicals Round UpGCC Petrochemical Companies- Price Performance Charts
2.6%
-6.5%
-0.4%
-2.8%
-4.0%
2.5%
-6.0%
0.0%
4.1%
-1.8%
1.8%
3.5%
22.0%
2.0%
1.7%
3.5%
22.0%
2.0%
-20% 0% 20% 40%
CHEMANOL
PetroRabigh
YANSAB
APPC
ALCO
NIC
Sahara Petro.
Nama Chem.
Sidi Kerir
Boubyan Petro
Al Qurain
SASEPETR
S5CHEM
SASEIDX
DSM
SASEPETR
S5CHEM
SASEIDX
QTD performance
-27.2%
1.8%
-5.5%
2.6%-19.5%
25.2%
-17.1%
-16.6%-13.0%
3.7%
18.1%
-2.3%
1.8%
-5.8%
-1.7%
-2.3%
1.8%
-5.8%
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40%
CHEMANOL
PetroRabigh
YANSAB
APPC
ALCO
NIC
Sahara Petro.
Nama Chem.Sidi Kerir
Boubyan Petro
Al Qurain
SASEPETR
S5CHEM
SASEIDX
DSM
SASEPETR
S5CHEM
SASEIDX
YTD performance
2.6%
-6.5%
-0.4%
-2.8%-4.0%
2.5%
-6.0%
0.0%
4.1%
-1.8%
1.8%
3.5%
22.0%
2.0%
1.7%
3.5%
22.0%
2.0%
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
CHEMANOL
PetroRabigh
YANSAB
APPC
ALCO
NIC
Sahara Petro.
Nama Chem.
Sidi Kerir
Boubyan Petro
Al Qurain
SASEPETR
S5CHEM
SASEIDX
DSM
SASEPETR
S5CHEM
SASEIDX
MTD performance
Source: Bloomberg.
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Petrochemicals Round UpRelative Valuation Chemical Universe
2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 E 2 0 1 2 E 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 E 2 0 1 2 E 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 E 2 0 1 2 E 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 E 2 0 1 2 E 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 E 2 0 1 2 EM i d d l e E a s tSABIC KSA 98.25 78,592 13.7 10.0 10.0 137% 37% 0% 8.2 6.6 6.4 2.4 2.1 1.9 3.1% 3.6% 4.1% 4.3%
SAFCO KSA 185.25 12,349 14.3 12.6 12.6 79% 13% 1% 15.2 11.9 11.8 6.5 6.0 5.5 6.5% 6.5% 6.6% 6.6%
SIPCHEM KSA 20.05 1,960 19.5 12.0 11.0 169% 63% 9% 11.0 7.7 7.2 1.5 1.3 1.2 4.5% 4.5% 3.6% 3.6%
Ind. Qatar Qatar 129.9 19,621 12.8 8.7 8.6 12% 47% 1% 12.5 8.2 7.8 3.3 2.7 2.3 3.8% 4.2% 5.5% 5.7%
Saudi Kayan KSA 18.1 7,239 NM 64.6 11.2 NM NM 480% NM 35.8 11.1 1.8 1.7 1.5 0.0% - 0.2% 0.6%
CHEMANOL KSA 11.75 378 235.0 18.0 11.4 -72% 1206% 58% 20.1 9.8 8.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 2.6%
PetroRabigh KSA 22.85 5,337 95.2 12.5 7.8 NM 662% 60% 22.9 12.1 9.2 2.5 2.1 1.6 0.0% - 0.0% 0.0%
YANSAB KSA 45 6,749 15.1 8.2 8.3 NM 85% -2% 12.8 8.3 8.2 3.4 2.6 2.0 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 2.2%
APPC KSA 27.9 1,052 12.0 8.4 9.3 158% 43% -10% 8.1 6.6 6.9 2.2 1.9 1.7 3.6% 6.3% 6.3% 5.7%
ALCO KSA 17.95 331 29.4 NA NA NM NA NA 19.2 NA NA 2.2 NA NA 0.0% 0.0% NA NA
NAMA KSA 9.3 319 34.4 NA NA NM NA NA 28.0 NA NA 0.7 NA NA 0.0% 0.0% NA NA
Sahara Petro. KSA 19.65 1,533 17.4 9.4 8.6 223% 85% 10% NM 18.6 12.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 2.4%
SIIG KSA 19.55 2,346 21.7 15.3 8.7 32% 42% 75% 32.4 26.0 8.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 2.6% 2.6% NA 3.1%
National Ind. KSA 40.4 6,005 15.3 9.2 9.3 183% 66% -1% 9.8 6.9 7.0 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.5% 2.3% 3.4% 3.5%
N o r t h A m e r i c aWestlake U.S. 43.14 2,873 12.9 10.1 10.8 319% 27% -6% 5.8 4.7 4.9 1.9 1.6 1.4 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
Dow U.S. 29.25 34,551 16.7 10.7 10.0 447% 56% 8% 9.4 7.0 6.8 1.9 1.4 1.3 2.1% 2.1% 3.1% 3.5%
Eastman U.S. 41.92 5,886 13.8 9.1 9.3 223% 53% -3% 5.9 5.2 5.2 3.6 3.1 2.6 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3%
Methanex U.S. 26.59 2,478 24.2 13.8 8.1 NM 76% 69% 12.7 7.2 5.1 1.9 1.8 1.5 2.3% 2.3% 2.5% 2.5%
E u r o p eYara Norway 271.3 14,392 9.0 7.7 8.4 131% 16% -8% 8.4 5.2 5.8 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.7% 2.0% 2.3% 2.6%
Akzo Nobel Netherlands 39.465 13,076 12.2 12.6 12.1 163% -3% 4% 6.3 6.1 6.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 3.5% 3.4% 3.7% 3.8%
BASF Germany 54.66 71,099 11.0 8.6 9.6 222% 28% -10% 5.3 5.4 5.6 2.3 2.1 1.9 3.1% 4.0% 4.4% 4.5%
A s i aHonam S.Korea 323000 9,328 13.1 8.6 7.6 -2% 52% 13% 9.9 6.2 5.5 2.3 1.8 1.5 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.8%
Sumitomo Japan 306 6,688 34.3 NA NA -125% NA NA 9.7 NA NA 0.9 NA NA 2.9% 2.0% 3.9% 4.0%
Taiwan Fert. Taiwan 80 2,624 45.5 23.2 19.4 36% 96% 20% 66.7 43.5 26.3 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.8% 2.8% 3.1% 3.7%
Formosa Plast. Taiwan 89.3 18,291 12.0 11.3 11.0 65% 7% 2% 14.0 12.5 11.9 2.1 2.1 1.9 4.5% 7.6% 7.5% 7.8%
N a m e C o u n try P r i c e ( L C ) M k tC a p( $ m n )P E R ( x ) E P SG ro w th ( % ) E V /E B IT D A P /B V D iv id e n d Y ie ld ( % )
Source: Bloomberg, SICO Research.
Note: - Based on Bloomberg Consensus Estimates
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Petrochemicals Round UpCompany Forward Valuation Charts- PE and PBVSABIC- PER and PBV charts
Jan-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11
35x 29x 23x 17x 11x 5x SABIC
Source: Company Data , SICO Research
IQ- PER and PBV charts
Jan-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11
28x 24x 20x 16x 12x 8x IQ
Source: Company Data , SICO Research
Jan-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11
12x 10x 8x 6x 4x 2x SABIC
Jan-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11
6x 5x 4x 3x 2x 1x IQ
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Petrochemicals Round UpSAFCO- PER and PBV charts
an-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11
38x 32x 26x 20x 14x 8x SAFCO
Source: Company Data , SICO Research
SIPCHEM- PER and PBV charts
Nov-06 Jun-07 Jan-08 Aug-08 Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jul-11
28x 24x 20x 16x 12x 8x Sipchem
Source: Company Data , SICO Research
Jan-05 Sep-05 May-06 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11
12x 10x 8x 6x 4x 2x SAFCO
Nov
-06
Jan
-07
Mar-
07
May
-07
Jul-07
Sep
-07
Nov
-07
Jan
-08
Mar-
08
May
-08
Jul-08
Sep
-08
Nov
-08
Jan
-09
Mar-
09
May
-09
Jul-09
Sep
-09
Nov
-09
Jan
-10
Mar-
10
May
-10
Jul-10
Sep
-10
Nov
-10
Jan
-11
Mar-
11
May
-11
Jul-11
Sep
-11
5.0x 4.0x 3.0x 2.0x 1.0x Sipchem
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Petrochemicals Round UpMajor GCC Listed Petrochemical Companies- Product Portfolio
IQ Qatar Ethylene, MethanolLDPE, LLDPE, HDPE,
MTBE
Urea,Ammonia,
MelamineDRI, Steel
SIPCHEM Saudi Arabia MethanolAcetic acid, Butanediol,
VAM.- Industrial Gases
SAFCO Saudi Arabia Methanol -Urea,Ammonia,
Melamine
YANSAB Saudi Arabia Ethylene, PropyleneLDPE,HDPE,PP,MEG,
BTX- -
KAYAN Saudi Arabia EthyleneHDPE,LDPE,PP,EO,EG,Ph
enol
RABIGH Saudi Arabia
Ethylene, Propylene,
Benzene,Styrene,
Methanol
EPPE, LLDPE, HDPE, PP,
PO, EG-
Gasoline, Fuel
Oil
APPC Propylene PP - -
MAADEN Saudi Arabia - Ammonia, DAPGold,
Aluminium
TASNEE Saudi Arabia Ethylene, Propylene PP,LDPE, HDPE Titanium Oxide
SAHARA Saudi Arabia Ethylene, Propylene HDPE,LDPE
Acrylic Acid,
Caustic Soda,
EDC
Alujain Saudi Arabia Propylene PP - Pesticides
CHEMANOL Saudi Arabia Methanol -Urea, Melamine,
FormaldehydeIndustrial Gases
Company Country Bas ic PetrochemsOther majordownstreampetrochems Fertilizers
Otherproducts
Source: Zawya, MEED, SICO Research Note - includes major announced expansion projects.
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Petrochemicals Round UpGCC Petrochemical Industry - Project Monitor
Saudi
KayanSaudi Arabia Jubail 1,350 550
HDPE,LDPE,PP,EO,EG
,Phenol10,000 4Q11
Sabic (35%), Al
Kayan (20%)
QAFCO Qatar Urea, Ammoina 3,000 1Q12 IQ (75%)QAFCO Qatar Urea 610 4Q12 IQ (75%)
Petrochem Saudi Arabia Jubail 1,100 400 HDPE,LDPE,PP 5,900 2H 2012Petrochem(65%),
Chevron(35%)
TSOC Saudi Arabia Jubail Acrylic Acid 670 1H14 BasellSahara Saudi Arabia Jubail Caustic Soda, EDC 550 2H13 Maaden (50%)
SIPCHEM Saudi Arabia Jubail
Ethylene
acetate/ButylAcetate
110 1H14 Sipchem (100%)
SIPCHEM Saudi Arabia Jubail EVA/LDPE 860 1H14
SIPCHEM (75%),
Hanwha (25%)
SIPCHEM Saudi Arabia Jubail Wire/Cable polymers 60 1H14SIPCHEM (50%),Hanwha (50%)
SABIC Saudi Arabia Jubail
MMA,PMMA,Acrylon
itrile,Polyacrylonitrile,SCN
3,200 2H 2013
Sadara Saudi Arabia Jubail
PUR, LLDPE, PO,MEG, LDPE, Amines,
Elastomers, Glycol
Ethers
20,000 2H15Aramco (50%) &
Dow (50%)
SAFCO Saudi Arabia Jubail Urea 1H14
SAAC /Aafinuc
Saudi Arabia Jubail Polymer 374 3Q13SAAC (75%) Aafinuc
(25%)
C o m p an y C o u n tryE t hy l e neCa pa c i t y( ' 0 0 0 M T )
E x pe c t e d/ onl ine
M a j ors ha r e ho l de r soc a t i on
P r opy l e neCa pa c i t y( ' 0 0 0 M T )
D o w n s t r e a mp r o d u c t s
C o s t( $ m n)
Source: Zawya, MEED, SICO Research
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