People play, people talk? Organic Adoption and Word-of-Mouth on Mobile
56
People play – people talk? July ‘16
-
Upload
julian-runge -
Category
Data & Analytics
-
view
219 -
download
0
Transcript of People play, people talk? Organic Adoption and Word-of-Mouth on Mobile
People play – people talk? July ‘16
Founded in 2009
Based in Berlin, more than 40 nations
Five hits in six years
2
3
4
Organic Adoption and Word-of-Mouth on Mobile
Inferring User Base Dynamics from Sparse Data
Customer value>
Customer acquisition cost
Cost per installLifetime value
8
Useracquisition
Organics
9
Useracquisition
Discovery
Word-of-mouth
Social media
Search
BrandPress
Featuring
ASO
PR
TV
Offline
Fun product
A lot of traffic cannot be (easily) attributed
to a source
INS
TA
LL
S
Digitalmarketing
Digitalmarketing
CPIX $
11
INS
TA
LL
S
Organics
Digitalmarketing
CPIX $
eCPI=
30%of CPI
12
Digital marketing
CPIY $
INS
TA
LL
S
Organics
Digitalmarketing
CPIX $
eCPI=
30%of CPI
13
CPIY $
eCPI=
70%of CPI
CPIX $
eCPI=
30%of CPI
INS
TA
LL
S
Digital marketing
Organics
Digitalmarketing
Organics
14
Effective CPILifetime value
Organics contribute majorly to making app marketing profitable
Better understand Organics
Predict organics for marketing budgeting
Model organics for LTV predictions
Identify opportunities for snowball effects
Better understand Organics
Predict organics for marketing budgeting
Model organics for LTV predictions
Identify opportunities for snowball effects
Better understand Organics
Predict organics for marketing budgeting
Model organics for LTV predictions
Identify opportunities for snowball effects
Better understand Organics
Predict organics for marketing budgeting
Model organics for LTV predictions
Identify opportunities for snowball effects
21
• Using simple predictors like DAU, Marketing metrics, Featuring
•Works pretty well
• Doesn’t enable conceptual understanding
• Out-of-sample performance ???
22
Predicting Organics
23
Modelling Organics
Game 1
Game 2
Game 3
Geo 1 Geo 2 Geo 3
24
„Uplift response functions“
Game 1
Game 2
Game 3
Geo 1 Geo 2 Geo 3 Geo 4 Geo 5 Geo 6 Geo 7
25
Global log-log model
Game 1 Game 2 Game 3
26
Spurious?
Organics
27
Digitalmarketing
Discovery
Word-of-mouth
Social media
Search
BrandPress
WOM
28
Digitalmarketing
Discovery
Word-of-mouth
Social media
Search
BrandPress
29
30
“Word-of-mouth is the world’s most effective,
yet least understood marketing strategy.”
- Ivan Misner
• 75% face-to-face, 15% phone, 10% online
• Drivers of WOM: customer satisfaction, trust and brand commitment
• Nielsen: Most trusted source of consumer information, most likely to be acted upon
•WOM customers add more value, create more WOM in turn
31
WOM facts
32
Onmobile?
Survey
Quantitative analysis
34
Digitalmarketing
Discovery
Word-of-mouth
Social media
Search
BrandPress
Survey
Survey based Survey and tracking based
How did you find us? (Ad traffic excluded)
Survey based Survey and tracking based
How did you find us? (Ad traffic excluded)
Why was the game recommended to you?
Response position bias
Survey results
WOM >> WOM
People recommend casual games mainly for fun
Mobile AdsApp Store
ChartsWord of Mouth
Day 7 Retention 100 95 120
Rounds until day 7 100 100 110
WOM users over-index onretention and engagement
Source: Wikipedia
Granger causality test41
Quantitative analysis
Causality tests
CAUSING ORGANICS NOT CAUSING ORGANICS
• DRU
• Engagement
• New users
• Marketing volume
42
People play – people talk?
43
CAUSING ORGANICS NOT CAUSING ORGANICS
•Marketing volume
•DRU in some large countries with limited marketing activity
•Engagement
Causality tests
Roundsper 2.5x xplayer
44
• Substantially lower WOM
• Not consistently caused by a loyal
customer base and its engagement
• Even though engagement is very high
• Marketing activity partly causal45
Pearl’s Perilvs.
Jelly Splash
46
?
47
Game/app design
Product marketing
48
Market conditions
Timing/saturation Innovativeness
Competitors
Organics
49
Paid marketing WOM
Appeal of gameplayProduct marketingMarket conditions
Loyal,satisfied customer
base
•KPIs: Organics per Paid Organics per kDRU
•Consider WOM in game/app design (e.g. giving players things to talk about broadly, social features)
•Think about WOM in product marketing (game name –Best Fiends, IP – Pokemon Go)
50
Business impact so far
51
52
People play – People talk !
(Give them an audience.)
53
Very different for different apps.
54
Broad audience
Niche audience
eCPI << CPI LTV > CPI
- Survey & time series analysis
