PARADIGM SHIFTS & PORTFOLIOSHow the changing market impacts your

organization’s talent potential

Beverly BerenJob Market Consultant – Atlanta

© 2010

Agenda

• What you already know• Conference Board Report• New Jobs for a New Decade• Dhawan – Georgia State University• Georgia Jobs 2009-2010• Openings & Expansions• Snapshot: Fall 2010• Paradigms• Paradigm Shifts• Winds of Change• Portfolios• Recap / Q&A

What you already know…

• Georgia Unemployment Rate: 10.0%• National Unemployment Rate: 9.6%

Conference Board Report

• Consumer Confidence – down to 48.5 (based on representative sample of 5,000 U.S. households)

• Leading Economic Indicators – up 0.3% in August• Online Advertised Vacancies – up 59,900

– Georgia gained 4,000 jobs– Growth in Southern and Midwestern states– Less growth in the Northeast and flat in the West

• Where the jobs are and aren’t (based on online advertising)

– Transportation and Material Moving – up 9,900 – Architecture and Engineering – up 9,200– Computer & Mathematical Science – up 15,200– Office and Administrative Support – up 7,200– Sales and related areas – down 26,400– Healthcare Practitioners & Technical workers – down 26,200– Management – down 11,500– Business & Financial Operations – down 9,500

• Employment Trends Index (ETI – e.g. “jobs hard to get,” number of contractors, job openings)

– Up 9.3% from a year ago, up 0.6% from April• CEO Confidence – 50 – down 12 points from August

New Jobs for a New DecadeNPR, January 3, 2010

• Green Jobs• Health Jobs• Tech Jobs• Video Game Jobs• Financial Jobs

New Jobs for a New Decade, cont’d

– Over the next 10 years (“Where The Jobs Will Be This Decade” from NPR Boston, 2010 Q1)• Healthcare: Home health services by nurses• Customer Service Reps• Food preparation & service workers• Personal & home care aides• Retail sales• Office clerks• Accountants• Postsecondary teachers

Rajeev Dhawan – Georgia State University

• Rajeev Dhawan – Director of the Economic Forecasting Center– Local economy to expect “quasi-growth” for rest of 2010– 43,000 jobs added in Georgia by 2011– 3,700 jobs added in Atlanta for 2010, and continue to rise in 2011-12– Housing permits @ 6,000 per year in Atlanta– Corporate sector: Kia plant, NCR, development of green jobs– Concerns:

• Education• Healthcare• Weak consumer confidence• Toxic debt in banking system• Revenue will be less for state government due to not much construction.

– Good news:• number of small business start-ups

Georgia Jobs 2009-2010

• Source: Georgia Department of Labor• Occupations with the Most Annual Openings within

the Highest Demand Industries– Food Services & Drinking Places– Ambulatory Health Care Services– Professional, Scientific, & Technical Workers

Openings & Expansions

• Manufacturing– Yazaki

• HQ in Gainesville• Makes fuel tanks for original equipment manufacturers

– Novelis• HQ moved from Cleveland to Atlanta• World’s leading rolling aluminum

– Web Industries• Leader in manufacturing & development of flexible materials• Manufacturing, aerospace, diapers, medical devices, solar• Supports aerospace industry – Boeing 787 “DreamLiner”

– Mia Sole (Alternative Energy)• Solar factory in Griffin

Openings & Expansions, cont’d

• Energy– Expansion of Georgia Power’s Plant Vogtle (outside Augusta)– Pres. Obama & Dept of Energy announce $8.3B in loan guarantees

• Bio Connector• “Innovation Crescent” – 100-acre development between Georgia

Tech & Georgia World Congress Center1. Renewable energy2. Defense3. Electronics4. Communication companies

• Entertainment– Entertainment Arts Research & China’s Shaolin Temple

• Development of a virtual world & console video games– EUE/Screen Gems

• Mobile Technology & Communications– Sony Ericsson

Openings & Expansions, cont’d

I-85 Corridor• Healthcare

– Dendreon Corporation– Cancer Treatment Centers of America

Snapshot: Fall 2010

• Dow Jones – 11,062.78• Gold – $1,371.10• Oil – $81.25• Foreclosures – 102,134 (September)• Temporary/contract jobs remain on the rise –

188,800 full-time compared to 404,200 (68.2%)• Forbes - Georgia ranked 8th in “Best State for

Business & Careers”

Paradigm

• Definition from the Greek– Paradeigma meaning “model, pattern, example”

• Definitions appearing from 1962 - 1992– Thomas S. Kuhn, scientific historian

• Accepted examples of actual scientific practice– Adam Smith, author

• A shared set of assumptions– Joel Arthur Barker, author of Paradigms: The Business of

Discovering the Future• …a set of rules and regulations (written or unwritten) that does

two things: 1) it establishes or defines boundaries; and 2) it tells you how to behave inside the boundaries in order to be successful

Paradigm Shift

• Definition– A change to a new game, a new set of rules

Paradigm Shifts

• Aging of America

• Sustainability – Green

• Global Security – Land, Sea, Air, Space, Cyberspace (The Economist, July 03, 2010)

• Diversity – Circa 2050, Caucasians will be in the minority in the U.S.

• Cultural – 2,400 international companies in Atlanta 2010

Winds of Change

When the winds of change blow, some people build walls and others build windmills. Chinese proverb

• Traditional Management - productivity & efficiency designed for 20th c. economy (The Talent Powered Organization by Cheese, Thomas, Craig)

• 21st c. – Move from developed world to developing world, connecting globally where talent is everywhere! – Cross functional team– Working virtually – i.e. flexibility– Shared responsibilities– Matrixed organizational structure

Winds of Change, cont’d

• Global economic crisis – 2007…2008…2009…2010…

• What’s the price of OIL got to do with it?– Why Your World Is About To Get A Whole Lot

Smaller by Jeff Rubin

Winds of Change, cont’d

• China moves ahead of Japan as 2nd largest global economy – 2010

• The Workforce:– Age– Gender– Immigration– Talent availability (CNN’s Money.com article “Why You Can’t Find a Job”)

• Communication - Younger generations driving collaboration, onset of social media, 2nd Life, openness, etc.

Winds of Change, cont’d

• Baby Boomers are working longer• Younger generation is not willing

to stay for a promotion. If it doesn’t meet their timeframe, they’re on the move.

• Perfect environment for creating a P O R T F O L I O!

Portfolios

Question:

What do the following people have in common?

?

Diva who reigned supreme from 1950’s - 1970’s

Beverly Sills

• General manager of the New York City Opera• Chairman of Lincoln Center• Chairman of the Metropolitan Opera

?

Actor

Ronald Reagan

40th President of the Unites States

?

Astronaut

John Glenn

Senator

?

Homemaker

Grandma Moses

Artist

Portfolios, cont’d

Answer

They re-invented themselves!

Who is the quintessential re-inventor in modern times?

45th Vice President of the United States

Al Gore

Environmental Activist

Portfolios, cont’d

• Who do you know who has re-invented herself/himself?

• Have you hired re-inventors? Are you going to?

• My story

Portfolios cont’d

• Today’s market shows a certain percentage of the workforce designing portfolios – i.e. having a myriad of skills in their toolbox which make them “evergreen” marketable

• Why are portfolios more prevalent today?– Job loss in certain industries never coming back– Economy shrinking

• Time to retool– Rise in enrollment at community colleges– Government offers incentives

• Startups– A certain percentage of unemployed will seize opportunity

to become entrepreneurs

Portfolios cont’d• S-curve – The Swiss Watch & Japan

– Just as companies recognize they can’t “stay at the top” unless they are innovative, individuals must continually improve their skills, and, when circumstances call for it, re-invent themselves.

Recap/Q&A

• There are paradigm shifts impacting markets and organizations globally.

• Savvy employers pay attention to paradigm shifts and how these will have an impact on an organization.

• There will be an increasing demand for talent with versatile portfolios.