Climate change forecasts: implications for regional climate change partnerships

Dr James Kinyangi, Regional Program Leader,

East Africa (CCAFS/ILRI)

1. The three challenges

In 15 years there will be another billion people to feed

A billion people go hungryAnother billion suffer nutrient

deficienciesAnother billion over-consume

100% (+/- 11%) more food needed by 2050

Tilman et al 2011Proc. National Academy Science

with current trajectories of diets & populations

To 2090, taking 14 climate models

Four degree rise

Thornton et al. (2010) Proc. National Academy Science

>20% loss5-20% lossNo change5-20% gain>20% gain

Length of growing period (%)

Length of growing season is likely to decline..

Vermeulen et al. 2012 Annual Review of Environment and Resources

19-29% global GHGs

from food systems

2. Focusing on outcomes

Ensuring close connection with users

Regional Learning Partnership Platform

Participatory action research across 5 sites

3 National workshops - Setting policy and research priorities

Illustrative 3-yr outcome targets

1. CCAFS (and partner) science used by key stakeholders to ensure that agriculture is appropriately incoprrated into the international climate agreements

2. CCAFS (and partner)-produced tools and approaches used by the UNFCCC in the guidelines for national adaptation planning and used in adaptation planning in at least 10 countries

3. CCAFS (and partner) science used by at least 6 major global agencies to provide incentives for women and men to do pro-poor mitigation

3. From outcome mapping to partnerships

Outcome mapping Scaling up strategies Development partners needed Research products needed Research partners needed

What?Tree planting BeekeepingShifts to small stockCrop/income diversificationClimate resilient crops

Who?NGO’s – CARE, World Neighbors, Vi Gov’t Extension; CBO’s – local groupsLocal researchers – KARI teamsCG researchers

StrategiesOutcome mappingLearning workshopsExchange visitsGender research trainingLocal TV, radio, cell info on CSA options

The researchKARI/CG research teamstesting and evaluatingimproved practices withfarmersBaselines; Monitoring change (incl. GHG’s); various indicatorsWhat inst’s and approaches benefit women? Enhance equity?Changes in practices – what’s climate resilient? What changes are men vs. women making?

OutcomesExt services more demand-driven; enhanced servicesResearch largely driven by user needsNGO’s informed by research and responsive to user needs

1. Linking knowledge with action

• Mali Met. Service, ACMAD, WMO

• Forecasts provided for 3‐days, 10‐days, and seasonal (inc. crop health...)

• Major increases in yields for participating farmers

2. From local participatory work to regional impact

• Also South-South exchange• Together with USAID, CCAFS is exploring scaling

up best practice across the Sahel

Thank you

To meet the challenges of climate change, strong partnerships are

needed from local to global levels